Barcelona School of Economics

A large literature documents that women are different from men in their choices and preferences, but little is known about gender differences in the boardroom. If women must be like men to break the glass ceiling, we might expect gender differences to disappear among directors. Using a large survey of directors, we show that female and male directors differ systematically in their core values and risk attitudes, but in ways that differ from gender differences in the general population. These results are robust to controlling for differences in observable characteristics. Consistent with findings for the population, female directors are more benevolent and universally concerned but less power oriented than male directors. However, in contrast to findings for the population, they are less tradition and security oriented than their male counterparts. They are also more risk loving than male directors. Thus, having a woman on the board need not lead to more risk-averse decision making. This paper was accepted by Brad Barber, Teck Ho, and Terrance Odean, special issue editors.

The increasing incidence of ethnic conflicts, and the much-publicized consequences of these conflicts, have attracted the interest of many researchers in the social sciences. Many studies have addressed directly the issue of ethnic diversity and its effects on social conflicts and civil wars. Political scientists have stressed the importance of institutions in the attenuation or intensification of social conflict in ethnically divided societies. Recently economists have connected ethnic diversity with important economic phenomena like investment, growth, or the quality of government (William Easterly and Ross Levine, 1997; Alberto Alesina et al., 2003; Rafael La Porta et al., 1999). The number of papers dealing with the effects of ethnic diversity on issues of economic interest is growing rapidly. In this respect, it is common in recent work to include as a regressor in empirical growth estimations an index of ethnic fractionalization. There are several reasons to include such an indicator. First, some authors have argued that ethnically diverse societies have a higher probability of ethnic conflicts, which may lead to civil war. The political instability caused by potential ethnic conflicts has a negative impact on investment and, indirectly, on growth. Second, ethnic diversity may generate a high level of corruption which, in turn, could deter investment. Finally it has been argued that in heterogeneous societies the diffusion of technological innovations is more difficult, especially when there is ethnic conflict among groups in a country. Business as usual is not possible in a society with a high level of potential ethnic conflict, since this situation affects all levels of economic activity. Trade may be restricted to individuals of the same ethnic group; public infrastructure may have an ethnic bias; government expenditure may favor some ethnic groups, etc. The common element in all these mechanisms is the existence of an ethnic conflict which, through social and political channels, spreads to the economy. However, many empirical studies find no relationship between ethnic fractionalization, ethnic conflict, and civil wars. There are at least three alternative explanations for this. First, it could be the case that the classification of ethnic groups in the Atlas Nadorov Mira (henceforth ANM), source of the traditional index of ethnolinguistic fractionalization (ELF), is not properly constructed. Some authors have used other sources to construct datasets of ethnic groups for a large sample of countries. In general, the correlation between the index of fractionalization obtained using these alternative data sources is very high (over 0.8). Second, James D. Fearon (2003) has argued that it is important to measure the “ethnic distance” across groups in order to obtain indicators of cultural diversity. He measures these distances in terms of the proximity in a tree diagram of the families of languages of different countries. As in the case of alternative data sources, the correlation of the index of ethnic fractionalization, using these distances, with the original ELF index is very high, 0.82. * Montalvo: Department of Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, C/Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27, Barcelona 08005 Spain, and Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Economicas (e-mail: montalvo@upf.es); Reynal-Querol: the World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433 (e-mail: mreynalquerol@worldbank.org). We are grateful for comments by Antonio Villar, Joan Esteban, Paul Collier, Tim Besley, and two anonymous referees. We thank the participants of seminars at the World Bank, Institut de la Mediterranea, Toulouse, Brown University, the European Economic Association Meetings, and the Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society. We would like to thank Sergio Kurlat, William Easterly, and Anke Hoeffler for sharing their data. Financial support from the BBVA Foundation and the Spanish Secretary of Science and Technology (SEC2003-04429) is kindly acknowledged. Jose G. Montalvo thanks the Public Services Group of the Research Department (DECRG) of the World Bank, where most of the revision of this paper was done, for their hospitality. The conclusions of this paper are not intended to represent the views of the World Bank, its executive directors, or the countries they represent. 1 Measured by the ELF index using the data of the Atlas Nadorov Mira. 2 Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2000), Alesina et al. (2003), or Fearon (2003). 3 See also Francesco Caselli and W. John Coleman (2002).

We identify the effects of monetary policy on credit risk-taking with an exhaustive credit register of loan applications and contracts. We separate the changes in the composition of the supply of credit from the concurrent changes in the volume of supply and quality, and the volume of demand. We employ a two-stage model that analyzes the granting of loan applications in the first stage and loan outcomes for the applications granted in the second stage, and that controls for both observed and unobserved, time-varying, firm and bank heterogeneity through time*firm and time*bank fixed effects. We find that a lower overnight interest rate induces lowly capitalized banks to grant more loan applications to ex ante risky firms and to commit larger loan volumes with fewer collateral requirements to these firms, yet with a higher ex post likelihood of default. A lower long-term interest rate and other relevant macroeconomic variables have no such effects.

We introduce SRISK to measure the systemic risk contribution of a financial firm. SRISK measures the capital shortfall of a firm conditional on a severe market decline, and is a function of its size, leverage and risk. We use the measure to study top financial institutions in the recent financial crisis. SRISK delivers useful rankings of systemic institutions at various stages of the crisis and identifies Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Morgan Stanley, Bear Stearns, and Lehman Brothers as top contributors as early as 2005-Q1. Moreover, aggregate SRISK provides early warning signals of distress in indicators of real activity.

We analyze the impact of monetary policy on the supply of bank credit. Monetary policy affects both loan supply and demand, thus making identification a steep challenge. We therefore analyze a novel, supervisory dataset with loan applications from Spain. Accounting for time-varying firm heterogeneity in loan demand, we find that tighter monetary and worse economic conditions substantially reduce loan granting, especially from banks with lower capital or liquidity ratios; responding to applications for the same loan, weak banks are less likely to grant the loan. Finally, firms cannot offset the resultant credit restriction by applying to other banks. (JEL E32, E44, E52, G21, G32)

Long-run growth in many models is the product of two terms: the effective number of researchers and their research productivity. We present evidence from various industries, products, and firms showing that research effort is rising substantially while research productivity is declining sharply. A good example is Moore’s Law. The number of researchers required today to achieve the famous doubling of computer chip density is more than 18 times larger than the number required in the early 1970s. More generally, everywhere we look we find that ideas, and the exponential growth they imply, are getting harder to find. (JEL D24, E23, O31, O47)

We synthesize two related literatures on firm-level drivers of wage inequality. Studies of rent sharing that use matched worker-firm data find elasticities of wages with respect to value added per worker in the range of 0.05–0.15. Studies of wage determination with worker and firm fixed effects typically find that firm-specific premiums explain 20% of overall wage variation. To interpret these findings, we develop a model of wage setting in which workers have idiosyncratic tastes for different workplaces. Simple versions of this model can rationalize standard fixed effects specifications and also match the typical rent-sharing elasticities in the literature.

Abstract There is growing evidence that firm-specific pay premiums are an important source of wage inequality. These premiums will contribute to the gender wage gap if women are less likely to work at high-paying firms or if women negotiate (or are offered) worse wage bargains with their employers than men. Using longitudinal data on the hourly wages of Portuguese workers matched with income statement information for firms, we show that the wages of both men and women contain firm-specific premiums that are strongly correlated with simple measures of the potential bargaining surplus at each firm. We then show how the impact of these firm-specific pay differentials on the gender wage gap can be decomposed into a combination of sorting and bargaining effects. We find that women are less likely to work at firms that pay higher premiums to either gender, with sorting effects being most important for low- and middle-skilled workers. We also find that women receive only 90% of the firm-specific pay premiums earned by men. Importantly, we find the same gender gap in the responses of wages to changes in potential surplus over time. Taken together, the combination of sorting and bargaining effects explain about one-fifth of the cross-sectional gender wage gap in Portugal.

I analyze the effects of competition on process innovation and product introduction and obtain robust results that hold for a range of market structures and competition modes. It is found that increasing the number of firms tends to decrease cost reduction expenditure per firm, whereas increasing the degree of product substitutability, with or without free entry, increases it—provided that the average demand for product varieties does not shrink. Increasing market size increases cost reduction expenditure per firm and has ambiguous effects on the number of varieties offered, while decreasing the cost of entry increases the number of entrants and varieties but reduces cost reduction expenditure per variety. The results are extended to other measures of competitive pressure and to investment in product quality. The framework and results shed light on empirical strategies to assess the impact of competition on innovation.

We construct a utility-based model of fluctuations with nominal rigidities and unemployment. We first show that under a standard utility specification, productivity shocks have no effect on unemployment in the constrained efficient allocation. That property is also shown to hold, despite labor market frictions, in the decentralized equilibrium under flexible prices and wages. Inefficient unemployment fluctuations arise when we introduce real-wage rigidities. As a result, in the presence of staggered price setting by firms, the central bank faces a trade-off between inflation and unemployment stabilization, which depends on labor market characteristics. We draw the implications for optimal monetary policy. (JEL E12, E24, E52)

Assessing the correctness of a structural equation model is essential to avoid drawing incorrect conclusions from empirical research. In the past, the chi-square test was recommended for assessing the correctness of the model but this test has been criticized because of its sensitivity to sample size. As a reaction, an abundance of fit indexes have been developed. The result of these developments is that structural equation modeling packages are now producing a large list of fit measures. One would think that this progression has led to a clear understanding of evaluating models with respect to model misspecifications. In this article we question the validity of approaches for model evaluation based on overall goodness-of-fit indexes. The argument against such usage is that they do not provide an adequate indication of the “size” of the model's misspecification. That is, they vary dramatically with the values of incidental parameters that are unrelated with the misspecification in the model. This is illustrated using simple but fundamental models. As an alternative method of model evaluation, we suggest using the expected parameter change in combination with the modification index (MI) and the power of the MI test.

Estimates of democracy's effect on the public sector are obtained from comparisons of 142 countries over the years 1960–90. Based on three tenets of voting theory – that voting mutes policy preference intensity, political power is equally distributed in democracies, and the form of voting processes is important—we expect democracy to affect policies that redistribute, or economically favor the political leadership, or enhance efficiency. We do not find such differences. Instead democracy is correlated with policies that limit competition for public office. Alternative modeling approaches emphasize the degree of competition, and deemphasize the form or even existence of voting processes.

Workplace creativity exhibited by individual employees and teams is a key driver of organizational innovation and success. After briefly touching upon issues related to the historical roots of research on workplace creativity, we focus on reviewing empirical work published since 2000 by researchers in the field of organizational psychology and management. We observe that although earlier research tended to take either an actor-centered or a context-centered approach, continuing to do so may have diminishing returns. To understand creativity in all its complexity and potential, an interactionist perspective that emphasizes actor–context interactive effects on creativity holds much promise. Moreover, after reviewing existing work taking an interactionist approach, we conclude that the nature of the actor–context interaction needs further theoretical advancement and refinement. Toward this end, we propose a typology that reveals a complex and intriguing set of actor–context interactions, including ones that are synergistic, antagonistic, inhibitory, remedial, and configurational, as well as ones that show patterns of diminishing gains and diminishing losses. We also discuss future research directions and practical implications.

To study the impact of macroprudential policy on credit supply cycles and real effects, we analyze dynamic provisioning. Introduced in Spain in 2000, revised four times, and tested in its countercyclicality during the crisis, it affected banks differentially. We find that dynamic provisioning smooths credit supply cycles and, in bad times, supports firm performance. A 1 percentage point increase in capital buffers extends credit to firms by 9 percentage points, increasing firm employment (6 percentage points) and survival (1 percentage point). Moreover, there are important compositional effects in credit supply related to risk and regulatory arbitrage by nonregulated and regulated but less affected banks.

Washington's 'revolving door' - the movement from government service into the lobbying industry - is regarded as a major concern for policy-making. We study how ex-government staffers benefit from the personal connections acquired during their public service. Lobbyists with experience in the office of a US Senator suffer a 24% drop in generated revenue when that Senator leaves office. The effect is immediate, discontinuous around the exit period and long-lasting. Consistent with the notion that lobbyists sell access to powerful politicians, the drop in revenue is increasing in the seniority of and committee assignments power held by the exiting politician.

We study how relationship lending and transaction lending vary over the business cycle. We develop a model in which relationship banks gather information on their borrowers, allowing them to provide loans to profitable firms during a crisis. Because of the services they provide, operating costs of relationship banks are higher than those of transaction banks. Relationship banks charge a higher intermediation spread in normal times, but offer continuation lending at more favourable terms than transaction banks to profitable firms in a crisis. Using credit register information for Italian banks before and after the Lehman Brothers’ default, we test the theoretical predictions of the model. Received July 29, 2014; accepted February 20, 2016 by Editor Philip Strahan.

A long standing question in social science is whether management matters. To investigate this we run a field experiment on 28 plants in large Indian textile firms to evaluate the causal impact of modernizing management practices. We do this by providing free management consulting to a set of randomly chosen treatment plants, and compare their performance to a set of control plants. We find that improving management practices had three main effects. First, it led to significantly higher efficiency and quality, and lower inventory levels. These changes increased productivity by 10.5 % and profitability by 16.8 % on average. Second, it increased the decentralization of decision making, as better production monitoring enabled the owners to delegate more decisions to their plant managers. Third, it increased the use of computers, necessitated by the extensive data collection, analysis and dissemination involved in modern management. Since these management practices were profitable, and firms were able to transfer them from their treatment plants to their other plants, this raises the question of why they had not adopted these practices before? Our results suggest that informational barriers were initially a primary factor in explaining this lack of adoption. Modern management practices are a type of technology that diffuse slowly between firms, with many Indian firms simply unaware of their impact or existence. A secondary factor constraining management appears to be the ability and behavior of the family firm CEOs.

How do the Internet and social media affect political outcomes? We review empirical evidence from the recent political economy literature, focusing primarily on work that considers traits that distinguish the Internet and social media from traditional off-line media, such as low barriers to entry and reliance on user-generated content. We discuss the main results about the effects of the Internet in general, and social media in particular, on voting, street protests, attitudes toward government, political polarization, xenophobia, and politicians’ behavior. We also review evidence on the role of social media in the dissemination of fake news, and we summarize results about the strategies employed by autocratic regimes to censor the Internet and to use social media for surveillance and propaganda. We conclude by highlighting open questions about how the Internet and social media shape politics in democracies and autocracies.

We examine empirically the impact of ethnic divisions on conflict, by using a specification based on Esteban and Ray (2011). That theory links conflict intensity to three indices of ethnic distribution: polarization, fractionalization, and the Gini-Greenberg index. The empirical analysis verifies that these distributional measures are significant correlates of conflict. These effects persist as we introduce country-specific measures of group cohesion and of the importance of public goods, and combine them with the distributional measures exactly as described by the theory. (JEL D63, D74, J15, O15, O17)

Vitiligo is the most common depigmenting disorder, which affects 0.5-1% of the worldwide population, causing disfigurement and serious disturbances in well being. There is a current lack of consensus in definition and methods of assessment of this disorder, which makes it generally impossible to compare the outcomes of different studies of the same treatment. This report summarizes the work carried out by the Vitiligo European Task Force to propose a consensus definition of the disease and to assess treatment outcomes using a system which combines analysis of extent, stage of disease (staging), and disease progression (spreading). In summary, extent is evaluated using the rule of 9. Staging is based on cutaneous and hair pigmentation in vitiligo patches, and the disease is staged 0-3 (revised version) on the largest macule in each body region, except hands and feet, which are assessed separately and globally as one unique area. Assessment of spreading is based on Wood's lamp examination of the same largest macule in each body area. Wood's lamp is useful for a combined assessment of staging and spreading in the same selected area. This study reports a workshop which validated the clinical use of the assessment form performed at several European University clinics, and showed an overall good concordance among panelists using the proposed scoring system. This system can be easily handled in clinical practice. However, variations between scorer profiles indicate a need for training to decrease interobserver variability. Further steps are envisaged, namely: (i) build a global index including staging and spreading for the initial assessment of vitiligo patients, usable as a guidance for therapeutic indications and prognosis, which could be interpreted as an equivalent of the TNM (tumor, node, metastasis) system for cancer; (ii) implement large-scale tests necessary for clinical trials (to check reproducibility and sensitivity); (iii) carry out studies of automated devices to assess extent more accurately; (iv) set up a teaching tool for scoring vitiligo, which could be posted on a website; and (v) set up an international conference on classifying, staging and scoring vitiligo, through the IFPCS Special Interest Group on Vitiligo.