Bielefeld University

Summary The use of both linear and generalized linear mixed‐effects models ( LMM s and GLMM s) has become popular not only in social and medical sciences, but also in biological sciences, especially in the field of ecology and evolution. Information criteria, such as Akaike Information Criterion ( AIC ), are usually presented as model comparison tools for mixed‐effects models. The presentation of ‘variance explained’ ( R 2 ) as a relevant summarizing statistic of mixed‐effects models, however, is rare, even though R 2 is routinely reported for linear models ( LM s) and also generalized linear models ( GLM s). R 2 has the extremely useful property of providing an absolute value for the goodness‐of‐fit of a model, which cannot be given by the information criteria. As a summary statistic that describes the amount of variance explained, R 2 can also be a quantity of biological interest. One reason for the under‐appreciation of R 2 for mixed‐effects models lies in the fact that R 2 can be defined in a number of ways. Furthermore, most definitions of R 2 for mixed‐effects have theoretical problems (e.g. decreased or negative R 2 values in larger models) and/or their use is hindered by practical difficulties (e.g. implementation). Here, we make a case for the importance of reporting R 2 for mixed‐effects models. We first provide the common definitions of R 2 for LM s and GLM s and discuss the key problems associated with calculating R 2 for mixed‐effects models. We then recommend a general and simple method for calculating two types of R 2 (marginal and conditional R 2 ) for both LMM s and GLMM s, which are less susceptible to common problems. This method is illustrated by examples and can be widely employed by researchers in any fields of research, regardless of software packages used for fitting mixed‐effects models. The proposed method has the potential to facilitate the presentation of R 2 for a wide range of circumstances.

We introduce a new class of problems called network information flow which is inspired by computer network applications. Consider a point-to-point communication network on which a number of information sources are to be multicast to certain sets of destinations. We assume that the information sources are mutually independent. The problem is to characterize the admissible coding rate region. This model subsumes all previously studied models along the same line. We study the problem with one information source, and we have obtained a simple characterization of the admissible coding rate region. Our result can be regarded as the max-flow min-cut theorem for network information flow. Contrary to one's intuition, our work reveals that it is in general not optimal to regard the information to be multicast as a "fluid" which can simply be routed or replicated. Rather, by employing coding at the nodes, which we refer to as network coding, bandwidth can in general be saved. This finding may have significant impact on future design of switching systems.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. INTERPRETATION: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

IMPORTANCE: Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results. FINDINGS: In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.

A new internally contracted direct multiconfiguration–reference configuration interaction (MRCI) method is described which allows the use of much larger reference spaces than any previous MRCI method. The configurations with two electrons in the external orbital space are generated by applying pair excitation operators to the reference wave function as a whole, while the singly external and internal configurations are standard uncontracted spin eigenfunctions. A new efficient and simple method for the calculation of the coupling coefficients is used, which is well suited for vector machines, and allows the recalculation of all coupling coefficients each time they are needed. The vector H⋅c is computed partly in a nonorthogonal configuration basis. In order to test the accuracy of the internally contracted wave functions, benchmark calculations have been performed for F−, H2O, NH2, CH2, CH3, OH, NO, N2, and O2 at various geometries. The deviations of the energies obtained with internally contracted and uncontracted MRCI wave functions are mostly smaller than 1 mH and typically 3–5 times smaller than the deviations between the uncontracted MRCI and the full CI. Dipole moments, electric dipole polarizabilities, and electronic dipole transition moments calculated with uncontracted and contracted MRCI wave functions also are found to be in close agreement. The efficiency of the method is demonstrated in large scale calculations for the CN, NH3, CO2, and Cr2 molecules. In these calculations up to 3088 reference configurations and up to 154 orbitals were employed. The biggest calculation is equivalent to an uncontracted MRCI with more than 78 million configurations.

Abstract Inorganic metal–oxygen cluster anions form a class of compounds that is unique in its topological and electronic versatility and is important in several disciplines. Names such as Berzelius , Werner , and Pauling appear in the early literature of the field. These clusters (so‐called isopoly‐ and heteropolyanions) contain highly symmetrical core assemblies of MO x units (M = V, Mo, W) and often adopt quasi‐spherical structures based on Archimedean and Platonic solids of considerable topological interest. Understanding the driving force for the formation of high‐nuclearity clusters is still a formidable challenge. Polyoxoanions are important models for elucidating the biological and catalytic action of metal–chalcogenide clusters, since metal–metal interactions in the oxo clusters range from very weak (virtually none) to strong (metal–metal bonding) and can be controlled by choice of metal (3d, 4d, 5d), electron population (degree of reduction), and extent of protonation. Mixed‐valence vanadates, in particular, show novel capacities for unpaired electrons, and the magnetic properties of these complexes may be tuned in a stepwise manner. Many vanadates also act as cryptands and clathrate hosts not only for neutral molecules and cations but also for anions, whereby a remarkable “induced self‐assembly process” often occurs. Polyoxometalates have found applications in analytical and clinical chemistry, catalysis (including photocatalysis), biochemistry (electron transport inhibition), medicine (antitumoral, antiviral, and even anti‐HIV activity), and solid‐state devices. These fields are the focus of much current research. Metal–oxygen clusters are also present in the geosphere and possibly in the biosphere. The mixed–valence vanadates contribute to an understanding of the extremely versatile geochemistry of the metal. The significant differences between the chemistry of the polyoxoanions and that of the thioanions of the same elements is of relevance to heterogeneous catalysis, bioinorganic chemistry, and veterinary medicine.

Consider a communication network in which certain source nodes multicast information to other nodes on the network in the multihop fashion where every node can pass on any of its received data to others. We are interested in how fast each node can receive the complete information, or equivalently, what the information rate arriving at each node is. Allowing a node to encode its received data before passing it on, the question involves optimization of the multicast mechanisms at the nodes. Among the simplest coding schemes is linear coding, which regards a block of data as a vector over a certain base field and allows a node to apply a linear transformation to a vector before passing it on. We formulate this multicast problem and prove that linear coding suffices to achieve the optimum, which is the max-flow from the source to each receiving node.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route (e.g., pandemic influenza) is increasingly being used to determine the impact of possible interventions. Although mixing patterns are known to be crucial determinants for model outcome, researchers often rely on a priori contact assumptions with little or no empirical basis. We conducted a population-based prospective survey of mixing patterns in eight European countries using a common paper-diary methodology. METHODS AND FINDINGS: 7,290 participants recorded characteristics of 97,904 contacts with different individuals during one day, including age, sex, location, duration, frequency, and occurrence of physical contact. We found that mixing patterns and contact characteristics were remarkably similar across different European countries. Contact patterns were highly assortative with age: schoolchildren and young adults in particular tended to mix with people of the same age. Contacts lasting at least one hour or occurring on a daily basis mostly involved physical contact, while short duration and infrequent contacts tended to be nonphysical. Contacts at home, school, or leisure were more likely to be physical than contacts at the workplace or while travelling. Preliminary modelling indicates that 5- to 19-year-olds are expected to suffer the highest incidence during the initial epidemic phase of an emerging infection transmitted through social contacts measured here when the population is completely susceptible. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, our study provides the first large-scale quantitative approach to contact patterns relevant for infections transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route, and the results should lead to improved parameterisation of mathematical models used to design control strategies.

Reinforcement learning offers to robotics a framework and set of tools for the design of sophisticated and hard-to-engineer behaviors. Conversely, the challenges of robotic problems provide both inspiration, impact, and validation for developments in reinforcement learning. The relationship between disciplines has sufficient promise to be likened to that between physics and mathematics. In this article, we attempt to strengthen the links between the two research communities by providing a survey of work in reinforcement learning for behavior generation in robots. We highlight both key challenges in robot reinforcement learning as well as notable successes. We discuss how contributions tamed the complexity of the domain and study the role of algorithms, representations, and prior knowledge in achieving these successes. As a result, a particular focus of our paper lies on the choice between model-based and model-free as well as between value-function-based and policy-search methods. By analyzing a simple problem in some detail we demonstrate how reinforcement learning approaches may be profitably applied, and we note throughout open questions and the tremendous potential for future research.

Detecting community structure is fundamental for uncovering the links between structure and function in complex networks and for practical applications in many disciplines such as biology and sociology. A popular method now widely used relies on the optimization of a quantity called modularity, which is a quality index for a partition of a network into communities. We find that modularity optimization may fail to identify modules smaller than a scale which depends on the total size of the network and on the degree of interconnectedness of the modules, even in cases where modules are unambiguously defined. This finding is confirmed through several examples, both in artificial and in real social, biological, and technological networks, where we show that modularity optimization indeed does not resolve a large number of modules. A check of the modules obtained through modularity optimization is thus necessary, and we provide here key elements for the assessment of the reliability of this community detection method.

The repetitive structure of genomic DNA holds many secrets to be discovered. A systematic study of repetitive DNA on a genomic or inter-genomic scale requires extensive algorithmic support. The REPuter program described herein was designed to serve as a fundamental tool in such studies. Efficient and complete detection of various types of repeats is provided together with an evaluation of significance and interactive visualization. This article circumscribes the wide scope of repeat analysis using applications in five different areas of sequence analysis: checking fragment assemblies, searching for low copy repeats, finding unique sequences, comparing gene structures and mapping of cDNA/EST sequences.

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short RNAs that post-transcriptionally regulate the expression of target genes by binding to the target mRNAs. Although a large number of animal miRNAs has been defined, only a few targets are known. In contrast to plant miRNAs, which usually bind nearly perfectly to their targets, animal miRNAs bind less tightly, with a few nucleotides being unbound, thus producing more complex secondary structures of miRNA/target duplexes. Here, we present a program, RNA-hybrid, that predicts multiple potential binding sites of miRNAs in large target RNAs. In general, the program finds the energetically most favorable hybridization sites of a small RNA in a large RNA. Intramolecular hybridizations, that is, base pairings between target nucleotides or between miRNA nucleotides are not allowed. For large targets, the time complexity of the algorithm is linear in the target length, allowing many long targets to be searched in a short time. Statistical significance of predicted targets is assessed with an extreme value statistics of length normalized minimum free energies, a Poisson approximation of multiple binding sites, and the calculation of effective numbers of orthologous targets in comparative studies of multiple organisms. We applied our method to the prediction of Drosophila miRNA targets in 3'UTRs and coding sequence. RNAhybrid, with its accompanying programs RNAcalibrate and RNAeffective, is available for download and as a Web tool on the Bielefeld Bioinformatics Server (http://bibiserv.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de/rnahybrid/).

<h3>Importance</h3> Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. <h3>Objective</h3> To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. <h3>Evidence Review</h3> We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. <h3>Findings</h3> In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). <h3>Conclusions and Relevance</h3> The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.

Although research on human-mediated exchanges of species has substantially intensified during the last centuries, we know surprisingly little about temporal dynamics of alien species accumulations across regions and taxa. Using a novel database of 45,813 first records of 16,926 established alien species, we show that the annual rate of first records worldwide has increased during the last 200 years, with 37% of all first records reported most recently (1970-2014). Inter-continental and inter-taxonomic variation can be largely attributed to the diaspora of European settlers in the nineteenth century and to the acceleration in trade in the twentieth century. For all taxonomic groups, the increase in numbers of alien species does not show any sign of saturation and most taxa even show increases in the rate of first records over time. This highlights that past efforts to mitigate invasions have not been effective enough to keep up with increasing globalization.

Genome sequencing enhances our understanding of the biological world by providing blueprints for the evolutionary and functional diversity that shapes the biosphere. However, microbial genomes that are currently available are of limited phylogenetic breadth, owing to our historical inability to cultivate most microorganisms in the laboratory. We apply single-cell genomics to target and sequence 201 uncultivated archaeal and bacterial cells from nine diverse habitats belonging to 29 major mostly uncharted branches of the tree of life, so-called ‘microbial dark matter’. With this additional genomic information, we are able to resolve many intra- and inter-phylum-level relationships and to propose two new superphyla. We uncover unexpected metabolic features that extend our understanding of biology and challenge established boundaries between the three domains of life. These include a novel amino acid use for the opal stop codon, an archaeal-type purine synthesis in Bacteria and complete sigma factors in Archaea similar to those in Bacteria. The single-cell genomes also served to phylogenetically anchor up to 20% of metagenomic reads in some habitats, facilitating organism-level interpretation of ecosystem function. This study greatly expands the genomic representation of the tree of life and provides a systematic step towards a better understanding of biological evolution on our planet. Uncultivated archaeal and bacterial cells of major uncharted branches of the tree of life are targeted and sequenced using single-cell genomics; this enables resolution of many intra- and inter-phylum-level relationships, uncovers unexpected metabolic features that challenge established boundaries between the three domains of life, and leads to the proposal of two new superphyla. Currently available genome sequences give us a narrow view of the remarkable diversity of microorganisms because the vast majority of them have never been cultivated in pure culture. Here Tanja Woyke and colleagues use single-cell genomics to target and sequence 201 uncultivated archaeal and bacterial cells from nine diverse habitats. This information reveals numerous intra- and inter-phylum relationships and a number of unexpected metabolic features. On the basis of the new data the authors propose taxonomic revisions to the archaeal and bacterial domains, including a proposal to reorganizing the Archaea into three superphyla.

Importance: Elevated systolic blood (SBP) pressure is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective: To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015. Design: A comparative risk assessment of health loss related to SBP. Estimated distribution of SBP was based on 844 studies from 154 countries (published 1980-2015) of 8.69 million participants. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of mean SBP and adjusted variance for each age, sex, country, and year. Diseases with sufficient evidence for a causal relationship with high SBP (eg, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke) were included in the primary analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean SBP level, cause-specific deaths, and health burden related to SBP (≥110-115 mm Hg and also ≥140 mm Hg) by age, sex, country, and year. Results: Between 1990-2015, the rate of SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 73 119 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 67 949-78 241) to 81 373 (95% UI, 76 814-85 770) per 100 000, and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 17 307 (95% UI, 17 117-17 492) to 20 526 (95% UI, 20 283-20 746) per 100 000. The estimated annual death rate per 100 000 associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 135.6 (95% UI, 122.4-148.1) to 145.2 (95% UI 130.3-159.9) and the rate for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 97.9 (95% UI, 87.5-108.1) to 106.3 (95% UI, 94.6-118.1). For loss of DALYs associated with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 95.9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 87.0-104.9 million) to 143.0 million (95% UI, 130.2-157.0 million) [corrected], and for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 5.2 million (95% UI, 4.6-5.7 million) to 7.8 million (95% UI, 7.0-8.7 million). The largest numbers of SBP-related deaths were caused by ischemic heart disease (4.9 million [95% UI, 4.0-5.7 million]; 54.5%), hemorrhagic stroke (2.0 million [95% UI, 1.6-2.3 million]; 58.3%), and ischemic stroke (1.5 million [95% UI, 1.2-1.8 million]; 50.0%). In 2015, China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States accounted for more than half of the global DALYs related to SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg. Conclusions and Relevance: In international surveys, although there is uncertainty in some estimates, the rate of elevated SBP (≥110-115 and ≥140 mm Hg) increased substantially between 1990 and 2015, and DALYs and deaths associated with elevated SBP also increased. Projections based on this sample suggest that in 2015, an estimated 3.5 billion adults had SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and 874 million adults had SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher.

In both the United States and Europe, concerns have been raised about whether preservice and in-service training succeeds in equipping teachers with the professional knowledge they need to deliver consistently high-quality instruction. This article investigates the significance of teachers’ content knowledge and pedagogical content knowledge for high-quality instruction and student progress in secondary-level mathematics. It reports findings from a 1-year study conducted in Germany with a representative sample of Grade 10 classes and their mathematics teachers. Teachers’ pedagogical content knowledge was theoretically and empirically distinguishable from their content knowledge. Multilevel structural equation models revealed a substantial positive effect of pedagogical content knowledge on students’ learning gains that was mediated by the provision of cognitive activation and individual learning support.

The coupled cluster method restricted to single and double excitations (CCSD) is considered for the case of a spin restricted Hartree–Fock open shell reference determinant. A spin–orbital based formulation, in which the cluster operator spans exactly the minimal first order interacting space, is presented, and computationally optimal working equations are given. In the limit of a large number of closed shell orbitals, the cost is identical to that of an optimum treatment of an equivalent closed shell problem, which is obtained as a special case of the formulation presented. The theory is applied to the calculation of a number of diatomic potential energy functions and compared with spin-unrestricted theory.

<h3>Importance</h3> Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths globally. The most common causes for liver cancer include hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and alcohol use. <h3>Objective</h3> To report results of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study on primary liver cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 countries or territories from 1990 to 2015, and present global, regional, and national estimates on the burden of liver cancer attributable to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and an “other” group that encompasses residual causes. <h3>Design, Settings, and Participants</h3> Mortality was estimated using vital registration and cancer registry data in an ensemble modeling approach. Single-cause mortality estimates were adjusted for all-cause mortality. Incidence was derived from mortality estimates and the mortality-to-incidence ratio. Through a systematic literature review, data on the proportions of liver cancer due to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and other causes were identified. Years of life lost were calculated by multiplying each death by a standard life expectancy. Prevalence was estimated using mortality-to-incidence ratio as surrogate for survival. Total prevalence was divided into 4 sequelae that were multiplied by disability weights to derive years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were the sum of years of life lost and YLDs. <h3>Main Outcomes and Measures</h3> Liver cancer mortality, incidence, YLDs, years of life lost, DALYs by etiology, age, sex, country, and year. <h3>Results</h3> There were 854 000 incident cases of liver cancer and 810 000 deaths globally in 2015, contributing to 20 578 000 DALYs. Cases of incident liver cancer increased by 75% between 1990 and 2015, of which 47% can be explained by changing population age structures, 35% by population growth, and −8% to changing age-specific incidence rates. The male-to-female ratio for age-standardized liver cancer mortality was 2.8. Globally, HBV accounted for 265 000 liver cancer deaths (33%), alcohol for 245 000 (30%), HCV for 167 000 (21%), and other causes for 133 000 (16%) deaths, with substantial variation between countries in the underlying etiologies. <h3>Conclusions and Relevance</h3> Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths in many countries. Causes of liver cancer differ widely among populations. Our results show that most cases of liver cancer can be prevented through vaccination, antiviral treatment, safe blood transfusion and injection practices, as well as interventions to reduce excessive alcohol use. In line with the Sustainable Development Goals, the identification and elimination of risk factors for liver cancer will be required to achieve a sustained reduction in liver cancer burden. The GBD study can be used to guide these prevention efforts.

In the elucidation of the microRNA regulatory network, knowledge of potential targets is of highest importance. Among existing target prediction methods, RNAhybrid [M. Rehmsmeier, P. Steffen, M. Höchsmann and R. Giegerich (2004) RNA, 10, 1507-1517] is unique in offering a flexible online prediction. Recently, some useful features have been added, among these the possibility to disallow G:U base pairs in the seed region, and a seed-match speed-up, which accelerates the program by a factor of 8. In addition, the program can now be used as a webservice for remote calls from user-implemented programs. We demonstrate RNAhybrid's flexibility with the prediction of a non-canonical target site for Caenorhabditis elegans miR-241 in the 3'-untranslated region of lin-39. RNAhybrid is available at http://bibiserv.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de/rnahybrid.