Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education – Economics Institute

We present DeblurGAN, an end-to-end learned method for motion deblurring. The learning is based on a conditional GAN and the content loss. DeblurGAN achieves state-of-the art performance both in the structural similarity measure and visual appearance. The quality of the deblurring model is also evaluated in a novel way on a real-world problem - object detection on (de-)blurred images. The method is 5 times faster than the closest competitor - Deep-Deblur [25]. We also introduce a novel method for generating synthetic motion blurred images from sharp ones, allowing realistic dataset augmentation. The model, code and the dataset are available at https://github.com/KupynOrest/DeblurGAN.

We present simple one-shot distribution experiments comparing the relative importance of efficiency concerns, maximin preferences, and inequality aversion, as well as the relative performance of the fairness theories by Gary E Bolton and Axel Ockenfels and by Ernst Fehr and Klaus M. Schmidt. While the Fehr-Schmidt theory performs better in a direct comparison, this appears to be due to being in line with maximin preferences. More importantly, we find that a combination of efficiency concerns, maximin preferences, and selfishness can rationalize most of the data while the Bolton-Ockenfels and Fehr-Schmidt theories are unable to explain important patterns.

Individuals must often choose among discrete actions with imperfect information about their payoffs. Before choosing, they have an opportunity to study the payoffs, but doing so is costly. This creates new choices such as the number of and types of questions to ask. We model these situations using the rational inattention approach to information frictions. We find that the decision maker's optimal strategy results in choosing probabilistically in line with a generalized multinomial logit model, which depends both on the actions' true payoffs as well as on prior beliefs. (JEL D11, D81, D83)

In the past decade, nearly 20 studies have found a strong, persistent pattern in surveys and behavioral experiments from over 40 countries: individual exposure to war violence tends to increase social cooperation at the local level, including community participation and prosocial behavior. Thus while war has many negative legacies for individuals and societies, it appears to leave a positive legacy in terms of local cooperation and civic engagement. We discuss, synthesize, and reanalyze the emerging body of evidence and weigh alternative explanations. There is some indication that war violence enhances in-group or “parochial” norms and preferences especially, a finding that, if true, suggests that the rising social cohesion we document need not promote broader peace.

This target article is concerned with the implications of the surprisingly different experimental practices in economics and in areas of psychology relevant to both economists and psychologists, such as behavioral decision making. We consider four features of experimentation in economics, namely, script enactment, repeated trials, performance-based monetary payments, and the proscription against deception, and compare them to experimental practices in psychology, primarily in the area of behavioral decision making. Whereas economists bring a precisely defined “script” to experiments for participants to enact, psychologists often do not provide such a script, leaving participants to infer what choices the situation affords. By often using repeated experimental trials, economists allow participants to learn about the task and the environment; psychologists typically do not. Economists generally pay participants on the basis of clearly defined performance criteria; psychologists usually pay a flat fee or grant a fixed amount of course credit. Economists virtually never deceive participants; psychologists, especially in some areas of inquiry, often do. We argue that experimental standards in economics are regulatory in that they allow for little variation between the experimental practices of individual researchers. The experimental standards in psychology, by contrast, are comparatively laissez-faire. We believe that the wider range of experimental practices in psychology reflects a lack of procedural regularity that may contribute to the variability of empirical findings in the research fields under consideration. We conclude with a call for more research on the consequences of methodological preferences, such as the use on monetary payments, and propose a “do-it-both-ways” rule regarding the enactment of scripts, repetition of trials, and performance-based monetary payments. We also argue, on pragmatic grounds, that the default practice should be not to deceive participants.

I present data and assess the first twelve years of the transition from plan to market. Transformations have taken place, but the income gap between the transition and advanced economies has widened. Transition countries further east have performed worse than those further west, but policies matter. All countries carried out quickly Type I reforms, such as macroeconomic stabilization, price liberalization, small-scale privatization, and breakup of state-owned enterprises. They differed in Type II reforms, such as large-scale privatization and development of banking and legal systems. Countries that developed a functioning legal framework and corporate governance have performed better than others.

We review the recent literature on rational inattention, identify the main theoretical mechanisms, and explain how it helps us understand a variety of phenomena across fields of economics. The theory of rational inattention assumes that agents cannot process all available information, but they can choose which exact pieces of information to attend to. Several important results in economics have been built around imperfect information. Nowadays, many more forms of information than ever before are available due to new technologies, and yet we are able to digest little of it. Which form of imperfect information we possess and act upon is thus largely determined by which information we choose to pay attention to. These choices are driven by current economic conditions and imply behavior that features numerous empirically supported departures from standard models. Combining these insights about human limitations with the optimizing approach of neoclassical economics yields a new, generally applicable model. (JEL D83, D91, E71)

Abstract Coordination games with Pareto-ranked equilibria have attracted major attention over the past two decades. Two early path-breaking sets of experimental studies were widely interpreted as suggesting that coordination failure is a common phenomenon in the laboratory. We identify the major determinants that seem to affect the incidence, and/or emergence, of coordination failure in the lab and review critically the existing experimental studies on coordination games with Pareto-ranked equilibria since that early evidence emerged. We conclude that there are many ways to engineer coordination successes.

We integrate tools to monitor information acquisition in field experiments on discrimination and examine whether gaps arise already when decision makers choose the effort level for reading an application. In both countries we study, negatively stereotyped minority names reduce employers' effort to inspect resumes. In contrast, minority names increase information acquisition in the rental housing market. Both results are consistent with a model of endogenous allocation of costly attention, which magnifies the role of prior beliefs and preferences beyond the one considered in standard models of discrimination. The findings have implications for magnitude of discrimination, returns to human capital and policy. (JEL C93, D83, J15, J16, J24, J71, R31)

In suggesting that new nations often coalesce in the decades following war, historians have posed an important psychological question: Does the experience of war generate an enduring elevation in people's egalitarian motivations toward their in-group? We administered social-choice tasks to more than 1,000 children and adults differentially affected by wars in the Republic of Georgia and Sierra Leone. We found that greater exposure to war created a lasting increase in people's egalitarian motivations toward their in-group, but not their out-groups, during a developmental window starting in middle childhood (around 7 years of age) and ending in early adulthood (around 20 years of age). Outside this window, war had no measurable impact on social motivations in young children and had only muted effects on the motivations of older adults. These "war effects" are broadly consistent with predictions from evolutionary approaches that emphasize the importance of group cooperation in defending against external threats, though they also highlight key areas in need of greater theoretical development.

We use experimental measures of time discounting and risk aversion for villagers in south India to highlight behavioral features of microcredit, a financial tool designed to reduce poverty and fix credit market imperfections. The evidence suggests that microcredit contracts may do more than reduce moral hazard and adverse selection by imposing new forms of discipline on borrowers. We find that, conditional on borrowing from any source, women with present-biased preferences are more likely than others to borrow through microcredit institutions. Another particular contribution of microcredit may thus be to provide helpful structure for borrowers seeking self-discipline. JEL: G21, I38, O15, O16, O18

We estimate returns to human capital during communism and the transition using data on 2,284 men in the Czech Republic. We show: (a) extremely low and constant rates of return to education under the communist wage grid and dramatic increases in transition, which do not differ by firm ownership, (b) radical changes in returns to several fields of study and “sheepskin effects” in both regimes, (c) identical wage experience profile in both regimes, (d) similar 1996 returns to human capital obtained in communism and in transition, and (e) changes in the interindustry wage structure. A decomposition of the variance of wages finds individuals' unobservable effects from communism to persist into transition, but most of the variance is due to unobservable effects introduced in the transition.

We discuss the implementation of an iterative quantum phase estimation algorithm with a single ancillary qubit. We suggest using this algorithm as a benchmark for multiqubit implementations. Furthermore, we describe in detail the smallest possible realization, using only two qubits, and exemplify with a superconducting circuit. We discuss the robustness of the algorithm in the presence of gate errors, and show that seven bits of precision is obtainable, even with very limited gate accuracies.

Query expansion is a popular method to improve the quality of image retrieval with both conventional and CNN representations. It has been so far limited to global image similarity. This work focuses on diffusion, a mechanism that captures the image manifold in the feature space. An efficient off-line stage allows optional reduction in the number of stored regions. In the on-line stage, the proposed handling of unseen queries in the indexing stage removes additional computation to adjust the precomputed data. We perform diffusion through a sparse linear system solver, yielding practical query times well below one second. Experimentally, we observe a significant boost in performance of image retrieval with compact CNN descriptors on standard benchmarks, especially when the query object covers only a small part of the image. Small objects have been a common failure case of CNN-based retrieval.

Does armed conflict reduce trade, even in noncombat areas, through the destruction of intergroup social capital? We analyze Ukrainian trade transactions before and after the 2014 Russia-Ukraine conflict. In a difference-in-differences framework, we find that Ukrainian firms from districts with fewer ethnic Russians experienced a deeper decline in trade with Russia. This decline is economically signifi-cant, persistent, and can be explained by erosion of intergroup trust. Affected Ukrainian firms suffered a decrease in performance and diverted trade to other countries. Our results suggest that, through social effects, conflict can be economically damaging even away from combat areas. (JEL D74, F14, F51, J15, P31, P33, Z13)

Research Summary Using detailed ownership and financial information from a large sample of owner‐managed private firms in three Western European countries, this paper examines the relationship between CEO's age and firm's performance. Tracking firms over time, we find that as a CEO ages, the firm experiences lower investment, lower sales growth, and lower profitability, but also higher probability of survival, suggesting a trade‐off between the managerial approaches of younger and older CEOs. These results are stronger in industries more reliant on human capital, such as service and creative industries. Our evidence also suggests that regional financial development moderates the relationship between a CEO's age and a firm's performance by facilitating the reallocation of assets from firms owned by older CEOs to firms owned by younger CEOs. Managerial Summary How do management styles change as CEOs grow older? Using a large firm‐level dataset, we examine the behavior and performance of firms with CEOs of different ages. We find that as a CEO grows older, firm investment, growth, and profitability decline, but probability of survival increases. The results are stronger in industries where human capital and creativity are more important. Regional financial development moderates the age–performance relationship by facilitating reallocation of assets from firms with old CEOs to firms with younger CEOs. Our findings suggest that management styles change with age, as older CEOs tend to emphasize survival at the expense of higher profits and faster growth.

Do adversarial environmental conditions create social cohesion? We provide new answers to this question by exploiting spatial and temporal variation in exposure to earthquakes across Chile. Using a variety of methods and controlling for a number of socio-economic variables, we find that exposure to earthquakes has a positive effect on several indicators of social cohesion. Social cohesion increases after a big earthquake and slowly erodes in periods where environmental conditions are less adverse. Our results contribute to the current debate on whether and how environmental conditions shape formal and informal institutions.

We solve a general class of dynamic rational-inattention problems in which an agent repeatedly acquires costly information about an evolving state and selects actions. The solution resembles the choice rule in a dynamic logit model, but it is biased towards an optimal default rule that does not depend on the realized state. We apply the general solution to the study of (i) the sunk-cost fallacy; (ii) inertia in actions leading to lagged adjustments to shocks; and (iii) the tradeoff between accuracy and delay in decision-making.

We present the results of a field experiment conducted at Harvard Medical School to understand the extent to which search costs affect matching among scientific collaborators. We generated exogenous variation in search costs for pairs of potential collaborators by randomly assigning individuals to 90-minute structured information-sharing sessions as part of a grant funding opportunity. We estimate that the treatment increases the probability of grant co-application of a given pair of researchers by 75%. The findings suggest that matching between scientists is subject to considerable frictions, even in the case of geographically-proximate scientists working in the same institutional context.

Prices tend to remain constant for a period of time and then jump. In the literature, this “rigidity” is usually interpreted to reflect a cost of adjusting prices. This article shows that price rigidity can alternatively reflect optimal price setting when there are no adjustment costs, namely, if the seller is rationally inattentive. The model generates non-trivial pricing patterns that are consistent with the data and that are hard to explain with the traditional adjustment-cost model. In particular, prices are adjusted frequently but move back and forth between a few given values, hazard functions are downward sloping, and responses to persistent shocks are sluggish. These results are obtained in a model that implements rational inattention without simplifying assumptions on the functional forms of the processed signals.