Decision Sciences (United States)

Virtually all current theories of choice under risk or uncertainty are cognitive and consequentialist. They assume that people assess the desirability and likelihood of possible outcomes of choice alternatives and integrate this information through some type of expectation-based calculus to arrive at a decision. The authors propose an alternative theoretical perspective, the risk-as-feelings hypothesis, that highlights the role of affect experienced at the moment of decision making. Drawing on research from clinical, physiological, and other subfields of psychology, they show that emotional reactions to risky situations often diverge from cognitive assessments of those risks. When such divergence occurs, emotional reactions often drive behavior. The risk-as-feelings hypothesis is shown to explain a wide range of phenomena that have resisted interpretation in cognitive-consequentialist terms.

This paper discusses the discounted utility (DU) model: its historical development, underlying assumptions, and "anomalies" - the empirical regularities that are inconsistent with its theoretical predictions. We then summarize the alternate theoretical formulations that have been advanced to address these anomalies. We also review three decades of empirical research on intertemporal choice, and discuss reasons for the spectacular variation in implicit discount rates across studies. Throughout the paper, we stress the importance of distinguishing time preference, per se, from many other considerations that also influence intertemporal choices.

Abstract : In Section 2, we review some important results of the received auction theory, introduce a new general auction model, and summarize the results of our analysis. Section 3 contains a formal statement of our model, and develops the properties of affiliated random variables. The various theorems are presented in Sections 4-8. In Section 9, we offer our views on the current state of auction theory. Following Section 9 is a technical appendix dealing with affiliated random variables.

The past decade has brought advanced information technologies, which include electronic messaging systems, executive information systems, collaborative systems, group decision support systems, and other technologies that use sophisticated information management to enable multiparty participation in organization activities. Developers and users of these systems hold high hopes for their potential to change organizations for the better, but actual changes often do not occur, or occur inconsistently. We propose adaptive structuration theory (AST) as a viable approach for studying the role of advanced information technologies in organization change. AST examines the change process from two vantage points: (1) the types of structures that are provided by advanced technologies, and (2) the structures that actually emerge in human action as people interact with these technologies. To illustrate the principles of AST, we consider the small group meeting and the use of a group decision support system (GDSS). A GDSS is an interesting technology for study because it can be structured in a myriad of ways, and social interaction unfolds as the GDSS is used. Both the structure of the technology and the emergent structure of social action can be studied. We begin by positioning AST among competing theoretical perspectives of technology and change. Next, we describe the theoretical roots and scope of the theory as it is applied to GDSS use and state the essential assumptions, concepts, and propositions of AST. We outline an analytic strategy for applying AST principles and provide an illustration of how our analytic approach can shed light on the impacts of advanced technologies on organizations. A major strength of AST is that it expounds the nature of social structures within advanced information technologies and the key interaction processes that figure in their use. By capturing these processes and tracing their impacts, we can reveal the complexity of technology-organization relationships. We can attain a better understanding of how to implement technologies, and we may also be able to develop improved designs or educational programs that promote productive adaptations.

The process of information technology adoption and use is critical to deriving the benefits of information technology. Yet from a conceptual standpoint, few empirical studies have made a distinction between individuals' pre-adoption and postadoption (continued use) beliefs and attitudes. This distinction is crucial in understanding and managing this process over time. The current study combines innovation diffusion and attitude theories in a theoretical framework to examine differences in pre-adoption and post-adoption beliefs and attitudes. The examination of Windows technology in a single organization indicates that users and potential adopters of information technology differ on their determinants of behavioral intention, attitude, and subjective norm. Potential adopter intention to adopt is solely determined by normative pressures, whereas user intention is solely determined by attitude. In addition, potential adopters base their attitude on a richer set of innovation characteristics than users. Whereas pre-adoption attitude is based on perceptions of usefulness, ease-of-use, result demonstrability, visibility, and trialability, post-adoption attitude is only based on instrumentality beliefs of usefulness and perceptions of image enhancements.

The acceptance of new information technologies by their intended users persists as an important issue for researchers and practitioners of information systems. Several models have been developed in the literature to facilitate understanding of the process by which new information technologies are adopted. This paper proposes a new construct that further illuminates the relationships explicit in the technology acceptance models and describes an operational measure for this construct that possesses desirable psychometric properties. The construct, personal innovativeness in the domain of information technology, is hypothesized to exhibit moderating effects on the antecedents as well as the consequences of individual perceptions about a new information technology. The construct was developed and validated in the context of the innovation represented by the World-Wide Web. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.

When humans are offered the choice between rewards available at different points in time, the relative values of the options are discounted according to their expected delays until delivery. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we examined the neural correlates of time discounting while subjects made a series of choices between monetary reward options that varied by delay to delivery. We demonstrate that two separate systems are involved in such decisions. Parts of the limbic system associated with the midbrain dopamine system, including paralimbic cortex, are preferentially activated by decisions involving immediately available rewards. In contrast, regions of the lateral prefrontal cortex and posterior parietal cortex are engaged uniformly by intertemporal choices irrespective of delay. Furthermore, the relative engagement of the two systems is directly associated with subjects' choices, with greater relative fronto-parietal activity when subjects choose longer term options.

Drawing on an appraisal-tendency framework (J. S. Lerner & D. Keltner, 2000), the authors predicted and found that fear and anger have opposite effects on risk perception. Whereas fearful people expressed pessimistic risk estimates and risk-averse choices, angry people expressed optimistic risk estimates and risk-seeking choices. These opposing patterns emerged for naturally occurring and experimentally induced fear and anger. Moreover, estimates of angry people more closely resembled those of happy people than those of fearful people. Consistent with predictions, appraisal tendencies accounted for these effects: Appraisals of certainty and control moderated and (in the case of control) mediated the emotion effects. As a complement to studies that link affective valence to judgment outcomes, the present studies highlight multiple benefits of studying specific emotions.

Davis, Gerald Smith and Aks Zaheer for their helpful reviews and comments on earlier versions of this paper. Trust is a key enabler of cooperative human actions. Three main deficiencies about our current knowledge of trust are addressed by this paper. First, due to widely divergent conceptual definitions of trust, the literature on trust is in a state of construct confusion. Second, too little is understood about how trust forms and on what trust is based. Third, little has been discussed about the role of emotion in trust formation. To address the first deficiency, this paper develops a typology of trust. The rest of the paper addresses the second and third deficiencies by proposing a model of how trust is initially formed, including the role of emotion. Dispositional, interpersonal, and impersonal (system) trust are integrated in the model. The paper also clarifies the cognitive and emotional bases on which interpersonal trust is formed in early relationships. The implications

Rapid advances in industrialisation and informatisation methods have spurred tremendous progress in developing the next generation of manufacturing technology. Today, we are on the cusp of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. In 2013, amongst one of 10 ‘Future Projects’ identified by the German government as part of its High-Tech Strategy 2020 Action Plan, the Industry 4.0 project is considered to be a major endeavour for Germany to establish itself as a leader of integrated industry. In 2014, China’s State Council unveiled their ten-year national plan, Made-in-China 2025, which was designed to transform China from the world’s workshop into a world manufacturing power. Made-in-China 2025 is an initiative to comprehensively upgrade China’s industry including the manufacturing sector. In Industry 4.0 and Made-in-China 2025, many applications require a combination of recently emerging new technologies, which is giving rise to the emergence of Industry 4.0. Such technologies originate from different disciplines including cyber-physical Systems, IoT, cloud computing, Industrial Integration, Enterprise Architecture, SOA, Business Process Management, Industrial Information Integration and others. At this present moment, the lack of powerful tools still poses a major obstacle for exploiting the full potential of Industry 4.0. In particular, formal methods and systems methods are crucial for realising Industry 4.0, which poses unique challenges. In this paper, we briefly survey the state of the art in the area of Industry 4.0 as it relates to industries.

Most theories of affective in ¯ uences on judgement and choice take a valencebased approach, contrasting the effects of positive versus negative feeling states. These approaches have not speci ® ed if and when distinct emotions of the same valence have different effects on judgement. In this article, we propose a model of emotion-speci ® c in ¯ uences on judgement and choice. We posit that each emotion is de ® ned by a tendency to perceive new events and objects in ways that are consistent with the original cognitive-appraisal dimensions of the emotion. To pit the valence and appraisal-tendency approaches against one another, we present a study that addresses whether two emotions of the same valence but differing appraisalsÐ anger and fearÐ relate in different ways to risk perception. Consistent with the appraisaltendency hypothesis, fearful people made pessimistic judgements of future events whereas angry people made optimistic judgements. In the Discussion we expand the proposed model and review evidence supporting two social moderators of appraisal-tendency processes.

Design science research (DSR) has staked its rightful ground as an important and legitimate Information Systems (IS) research paradigm. We contend that DSR has yet to attain its full potential impact on the development and use of information systems due to gaps in the understanding and application of DSR concepts and methods. This essay aims to help researchers (1) appreciate the levels of artifact abstractions that may be DSR contributions, (2) identify appropriate ways of consuming and producing knowledge when they are preparing journal articles or other scholarly works, (3) understand and position the knowledge contributions of their research projects, and (4) structure a DSR article so that it emphasizes significant contributions to the knowledge base. Our focal contribution is the DSR knowledge contribution framework with two dimensions based on the existing state of knowledge in both the problem and solution domains for the research opportunity under study. In addition, we propose a DSR communication schema with similarities to more conventional publication patterns, but which substitutes the description of the DSR artifact in place of a traditional results section. We evaluate the DSR contribution framework and the DSR communication schema via examinations of DSR exemplar publications.

A revolution in the science of emotion has emerged in recent decades, with the potential to create a paradigm shift in decision theories. The research reveals that emotions constitute potent, pervasive, predictable, sometimes harmful and sometimes beneficial drivers of decision making. Across different domains, important regularities appear in the mechanisms through which emotions influence judgments and choices. We organize and analyze what has been learned from the past 35 years of work on emotion and decision making. In so doing, we propose the emotion-imbued choice model, which accounts for inputs from traditional rational choice theory and from newer emotion research, synthesizing scientific models.

PART I: BUILDING A STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK TO ANALYZE SUPPLY CHAINS Chapter 1: Understanding the Supply Chain Chapter 2: Supply Chain Performance: Achieving Strategic Fit and Scope Chapter 3: Supply Chain Drivers and Metrics PART II: DESIGNING THE SUPPLY CHAIN NETWORK Chapter 4: Designing Distribution Networks and Applications to e-Business Chapter 5: Network Design in the Supply Chain Chapter 6: Network Design in an Uncertain Environment PART III: Planning Demand and Supply in a Supply Chain Chapter 7: Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain Chapter 8: Aggregate Planning in the Supply Chain Chapter 9: Planning Supply and Demand in the Supply Chain: Managing Predictable Variability PART IV: Planning and Managing Inventories in a Supply Chain Chapter 10: Managing Economies of Scale in the Supply Chain: Cycle Inventory Chapter 11: Managing Uncertainty in the Supply Chain: Safety Inventory Chapter 12: Determining Optimal Level of Product Availability PART V: Designing and Planning Transportation Networks Chapter 13: Transportation in the Supply Chain PART VI: Managing Cross-Functional Drivers in the Supply Chain Chapter 14: Sourcing Decisions in a Supply Chain Chapter 15: Pricing and Revenue Management in the Supply Chain Chapter 16: Information Technology and the Supply Chain Chapter 17: Coordination in the Supply Chain

A review of model-selection criteria is presented, with a view toward showing their similarities. It is suggested that some problems treated by sequences of hypothesis tests may be more expeditiously treated by the application of model-selection criteria. Consideration is given to application of model-selection criteria to some problems of multivariate analysis, especially the clustering of variables, factor analysis and, more generally, describing a complex of variables.

Calls for new directions in MIS research bring with them a call for renewed methodological rigor. This article offers an operating paradigm for renewal along dimensions previously unstressed. The basic contention is that confirmatory empirical findings will be strengthened when instrument validation precedes both internal and statistical conclusion validity and that, in many situations, MIS researchers need to validate their research instruments. This contention is supported by a survey of instrumentation as reported in sample IS journals over the last several years. A demonstration exercise of instrument validation follows as an illustration of some of the basic principles of validation. The validated instrument was designed to gather data on the impact of computer security administration on the incidence of computer abuse in the U.S.A.

Cases of clear scientific misconduct have received significant media attention recently, but less flagrantly questionable research practices may be more prevalent and, ultimately, more damaging to the academic enterprise. Using an anonymous elicitation format supplemented by incentives for honest reporting, we surveyed over 2,000 psychologists about their involvement in questionable research practices. The impact of truth-telling incentives on self-admissions of questionable research practices was positive, and this impact was greater for practices that respondents judged to be less defensible. Combining three different estimation methods, we found that the percentage of respondents who have engaged in questionable practices was surprisingly high. This finding suggests that some questionable practices may constitute the prevailing research norm.

Professionals are frequently consulted to diagnose and predict human behavior; optimal treatment and planning often hinge on the consultant's judgmental accuracy. The consultant may rely on one of two contrasting approaches to decision-making--the clinical and actuarial methods. Research comparing these two approaches shows the actuarial method to be superior. Factors underlying the greater accuracy of actuarial methods, sources of resistance to the scientific findings, and the benefits of increased reliance on actuarial approaches are discussed.

In this paper, we use data from the Carnegie Mellon Survey on industrial R&D to evaluate for the U.S. manufacturing sector the influence of “public”(i.e., university and government R&D lab) research on industrial R&D, the role that public research plays in industrial R&D, and the pathways through which that effect is exercised. We find that public research is critical to industrial R&D in a small number of industries and importantly affects industrial R&D across much of the manufacturing sector. Contrary to the notion that university research largely generates new ideas for industrial R&D projects, the survey responses demonstrate that public research both suggests new R&D projects and contributes to the completion of existing projects in roughly equal measure overall. The results also indicate that the key channels through which university research impacts industrial R&D include published papers and reports, public conferences and meetings, informal information exchange, and consulting. We also finnd that, after controlling for industry, the influence of public research on industrial R&D is disproportionately greater for larger firms as well as start-ups.

ABSTRACT: Trust is a vital relationship concept that needs clarification because researchers across disciplines have defined it in so many different ways. A typology of trust types would make it easier to compare and communicate results, and would be especially valuable if the types of trust related to one other. The typology should be interdisciplinary because many disciplines research e-commerce. This paper justifies a parsimonious interdisciplinary typology and relates trust constructs to e-commerce consumer actions, defining both conceptual-level and operational-level trust constructs. Conceptual-level constructs consist of disposition to trust (primarily from psychology), institution-based trust (from sociology), and trusting beliefs and trusting intentions (primarily from social psychology). Each construct is decomposed into measurable subconstructs, and the typology shows how trust constructs relate to already existing Internet relationship constructs. The effects of Web vendor interventions on consumer behaviors are posited to be partially mediated by consumer trusting beliefs and trusting intentions in the e-vendor. KEY WORDS AND PHRASES: Customer relationships, human issues in e-commerce, Internet consumers, trust.