Department of Chemistry and Earth Sciences

A unique open-ocean upwelling exists in the tropical South Indian Ocean (SIO), a result of the negative wind curl between the southeasterly trades and equatorial westerlies, raising the thermocline in the west. Analysis of in situ measurements and a model-assimilated dataset reveals a strong influence of subsurface thermocline variability on sea surface temperature (SST) in this upwelling zone. El Nin o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to be the dominant forcing for the SIO thermocline variability, with SST variability off Sumatra, Indonesia, also making a significant contribution. When either an El Nin o or Sumatra cooling event takes place, anomalous easterlies appear in the equatorial Indian Ocean, forcing a westward-propagating downwelling Rossby wave in the SIO. In phase with this dynamic Rossby wave, there is a pronounced copropagation of SST. Moreover, a positive precipitation anomaly is found over, or just to the south of, the Rossby wave-induced positive SST anomaly, resulting in a cyclonic circulation in the surface wind field that appears to feedback onto the SST anomaly. Finally, this downwelling Rossby wave also increases tropical cyclone activity in the SIO through its SST effect.

We synthesize estimates of the contemporary net air‐sea CO 2 flux on the basis of an inversion of interior ocean carbon observations using a suite of 10 ocean general circulation models (Mikaloff Fletcher et al., 2006, 2007) and compare them to estimates based on a new climatology of the air‐sea difference of the partial pressure of CO 2 ( p CO 2 ) (Takahashi et al., 2008). These two independent flux estimates reveal a consistent description of the regional distribution of annual mean sources and sinks of atmospheric CO 2 for the decade of the 1990s and the early 2000s with differences at the regional level of generally less than 0.1 Pg C a −1 . This distribution is characterized by outgassing in the tropics, uptake in midlatitudes, and comparatively small fluxes in thehigh latitudes. Both estimates point toward a small (∼ −0.3 Pg C a −1 ) contemporary CO 2 sink in the Southern Ocean (south of 44°S), a result of the near cancellation between a substantial outgassing of natural CO 2 and a strong uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 . A notable exception in the generally good agreement between the two estimates exists within the Southern Ocean: the ocean inversion suggests a relatively uniform uptake, while the p CO 2 ‐based estimate suggests strong uptake in the region between 58°S and 44°S, and a source in the region south of 58°S. Globally and for a nominal period between 1995 and 2000, the contemporary net air‐sea flux of CO 2 is estimated to be −1.7 ± 0.4 Pg C a −1 (inversion) and −1.4 ± 0.7 Pg C a −1 ( p CO 2 ‐climatology), respectively, consisting of an outgassing flux of river‐derived carbon of ∼+0.5 Pg C a −1 , and an uptake flux of anthropogenic carbon of −2.2 ± 0.3 Pg C a −1 (inversion) and −1.9 ± 0.7 Pg C a −1 ( p CO 2 ‐climatology). The two flux estimates also imply a consistent description of the contemporary meridional transport of carbon with southward ocean transport throughout most of the Atlantic basin, and strong equatorward convergence in the Indo‐Pacific basins. Both transport estimates suggest a small hemispheric asymmetry with a southward transport of between −0.2 and −0.3 Pg C a −1 across the equator. While the convergence of these two independent estimates is encouraging and suggests that it is now possible to provide relatively tight constraints for the net air‐sea CO 2 fluxes at the regional basis, both studies are limited by their lack of consideration of long‐term changes in the ocean carbon cycle, such as the recent possible stalling in the expected growth of the Southern Ocean carbon sink.

century. Some of the regions most susceptible to dangerous heat and humidity combinations are also among the most densely populated. Consequently, there is the potential for widespread exposure to wet bulb temperatures that approach and in some cases exceed postulated theoretical limits of human tolerance by mid- to late-century. We project that by 2080 the relative frequency of present-day extreme wet bulb temperature events could rise by a factor of 100 - 250 (approximately double the frequency change projected for temperature alone) in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes, areas which are projected to contain approximately half the world's population. In addition, population exposure to wet bulb temperatures that exceed recent deadly heat waves may increase by a factor of five to ten, with 150 - 750 million person-days of exposure to wet bulb temperatures above those seen in today's most severe heat waves by 2070 - 2080. Under RCP 8.5, exposure to wet bulb temperatures above 35°C - the theoretical limit for human tolerance - could exceed a million person-days per year by 2080. Limiting emissions to follow RCP 4.5 entirely eliminates exposure to that extreme threshold. Some of the most affected regions, especially Northeast India and coastal West Africa, currently have scarce cooling infrastructure, relatively low adaptive capacity, and rapidly growing populations. In the coming decades heat stress may prove to be one of the most widely experienced and directly dangerous aspects of climate change, posing a severe threat to human health, energy infrastructure, and outdoor activities ranging from agricultural production to military training.

Upper-layer circulation is investigated by using all available historical temperature profiles combined with climatological temperature–salinity relationships in the South China Sea. Two cyclonic eddies are revealed: one is located east of Vietnam (called the East Vietnam eddy) and the other is off northwest Luzon (called the West Luzon eddy). Both local Ekman pumping and remotely forced basin-scale circulation are important mechanisms controlling these two eddies. The Luzon Strait transport (relative to 400 db) is estimated to be of the order 3.0 Sv (1 Sv = 1 × 106 m3 s−1) in the mean, and has a seasonal cycle dominated by the annual signal, with a maximum (5.3 Sv) in January–February and a minimum (0.2 Sv) in June–July. Pressure gradients are also examined to explore the dynamics of the intrusion of waters from the Pacific into the South China Sea through the Luzon Strait.

Four fundamental differences of air-sea interactions between the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans are identified based on observational analyses and physical reasoning. The first difference is represented by the strong contrast of a zonal cloud-SST phase relationship between the warm and cool oceans. The in-phase cloud-SST relationship in the warm oceans leads to a strong negative feedback, while a significant phase difference in the cold tongue leads to a much weaker thermodynamic damping. The second difference arises from the reversal of the basic-state zonal wind and the tilting of the ocean thermocline, which leads to distinctive effects of ocean waves. The third difference lies in the existence of the Asian monsoon and its interaction with the adjacent oceans. The fourth difference is that the southeast Indian Ocean is a region where a positive atmosphereocean thermodynamic feedback exists in boreal summer.

ABSTRACT Crowdsourcing is traditionally defined as obtaining data or information by enlisting the services of a (potentially large) number of people. However, due to recent innovations, this definition can now be expanded to include ‘and/or from a range of public sensors, typically connected via the Internet.’ A large and increasing amount of data is now being obtained from a huge variety of non‐traditional sources – from smart phone sensors to amateur weather stations to canvassing members of the public. Some disciplines (e.g. astrophysics, ecology) are already utilizing crowdsourcing techniques (e.g. citizen science initiatives, web 2.0 technology, low‐cost sensors), and while its value within the climate and atmospheric science disciplines is still relatively unexplored, it is beginning to show promise. However, important questions remain; this paper introduces and explores the wide‐range of current and prospective methods to crowdsource atmospheric data, investigates the quality of such data and examines its potential applications in the context of weather, climate and society. It is clear that crowdsourcing is already a valuable tool for engaging the public, and if appropriate validation and quality control procedures are adopted and implemented, it has much potential to provide a valuable source of high temporal and spatial resolution, real‐time data, especially in regions where few observations currently exist, thereby adding value to science, technology and society.

Authors' note: Science fiction writers construct an imaginary future; historians attempt to reconstruct the past. Ultimately, both are seeking to understand the present. In this essay, we blend the two genres to imagine a future historian looking back on a past that is our present and (possible) future. The occasion is the tercentenary of the end of Western culture (1540 – 2073); the dilemma being addressed is how we – the children of the Enlightenment – failed to act on robust information about climate change and knowledge of the damaging events that were about to unfold. Our historian concludes that a second Dark Age had fallen on Western civilization, in which denial and self-deception, rooted in an ideological fixation on “free” markets, disabled the world's powerful nations in the face of tragedy. Moreover, the scientists who best understood the problem were hamstrung by their own cultural practices, which demanded an excessively stringent standard for accepting claims of any kind – even those involving imminent threats. Here, our future historian, living in the Second People's Republic of China, recounts the events of the Period of the Penumbra (1988 – 2073) that led to the Great Collapse and Mass Migration (2074).

Satellite microwave measurements are analyzed, revealing robust covariability in sea surface temperature (SST) and wind speed over the Kuroshio Extension (KE) east of Japan. Ocean hydrodynamic instabilities cause the KE to meander and result in large SST variations. Increased (reduced) wind speeds are found to be associated with warm (cold) SST anomalies. This positive SST-wind correlation in KE is confirmed by in situ buoy measurements and is consistent with a vertical shear adjustment mechanism. Namely, an increase in SST reduces the static stability of the near-surface atmosphere, intensifying the vertical turbulence mixing and bringing fastmoving air from aloft to the sea surface.

Within the syntaxial bends of the India‐Asia collision the Himalaya terminate abruptly in a pair of metamorphic massifs. Nanga Parbat in the west and Namche Barwa in the east are actively deforming antiformal domes which expose Quaternary metamorphic rocks and granites. The massifs are transected by major Himalayan rivers (Indus and Tsangpo) and are loci of deep and rapid exhumation. On the basis of velocity and attenuation tomography and microseismic, magnetotelluric, geochronological, petrological, structural, and geomorphic data we have collected at Nanga Parbat we propose a model in which this intense metamorphic and structural reworking of crustal lithosphere is a consequence of strain focusing caused by significant erosion within deep gorges cut by the Indus and Tsangpo as these rivers turn sharply toward the foreland and exit their host syntaxes. The localization of this phenomenon at the terminations of the Himalayan arc owes its origin to both regional and local feedbacks between erosion and tectonics.

Cyanobacteria are thought to be the main N(2)-fixing organisms (diazotrophs) in marine pelagic waters, but recent molecular analyses indicate that non-cyanobacterial diazotrophs are also present and active. Existing data are, however, restricted geographically and by limited sequencing depths. Our analysis of 79,090 nitrogenase (nifH) PCR amplicons encoding 7,468 unique proteins from surface samples (ten DNA samples and two RNA samples) collected at ten marine locations world-wide provides the first in-depth survey of a functional bacterial gene and yield insights into the composition and diversity of the nifH gene pool in marine waters. Great divergence in nifH composition was observed between sites. Cyanobacteria-like genes were most frequent among amplicons from the warmest waters, but overall the data set was dominated by nifH sequences most closely related to non-cyanobacteria. Clusters related to Alpha-, Beta-, Gamma-, and Delta-Proteobacteria were most common and showed distinct geographic distributions. Sequences related to anaerobic bacteria (nifH Cluster III) were generally rare, but preponderant in cold waters, especially in the Arctic. Although the two transcript samples were dominated by unicellular cyanobacteria, 42% of the identified non-cyanobacterial nifH clusters from the corresponding DNA samples were also detected in cDNA. The study indicates that non-cyanobacteria account for a substantial part of the nifH gene pool in marine surface waters and that these genes are at least occasionally expressed. The contribution of non-cyanobacterial diazotrophs to the global N(2) fixation budget cannot be inferred from sequence data alone, but the prevalence of non-cyanobacterial nifH genes and transcripts suggest that these bacteria are ecologically significant.

This paper investigates the use of fractional order (FO) controllers for a microgrid. The microgrid employs various autonomous generation systems like wind turbine generator, solar photovoltaic, diesel energy generator, and fuel-cells. Other storage devices like the battery energy storage system and the flywheel energy storage system are also present in the power network. An FO control strategy is employed and the FO-proportional integral derivative (PID) controller parameters are tuned with a global optimization algorithm to meet system performance specifications. A kriging based surrogate modeling technique is employed to alleviate the issue of expensive objective function evaluation for the optimization based controller tuning. Numerical simulations are reported to prove the validity of the proposed methods. The results for both the FO and the integer order controllers are compared with standard evolutionary optimization techniques, and the relative merits and demerits of the kriging based surrogate modeling are discussed. This kind of optimization technique is not only limited to this specific case of microgrid control, but also can be ported to other computationally expensive power system optimization problems.

The elevated arsenic (As) content of groundwater from wells across Bangladesh and several other South Asian countries is estimated to slowly poison at least 100 million people. The heterogeneous distribution of dissolved arsenic in the subsurface complicates understanding of its release from the sediment matrix into the groundwater, as well as the design of mitigation strategies. Using the tritium‐helium ( 3 H/ 3 He) groundwater dating technique, we show that there is a linear correlation between groundwater age at depths <20 m and dissolved As concentration, with an average slope of 19 μ g L −1 yr −1 (monitoring wells only). We propose that either the kinetics of As mobilization or the removal of As by groundwater flushing is the mechanism underlying this relationship. In either case, the spatial variability of As concentrations in the top 20 m of the shallow aquifers can to a large extent be attributed to groundwater age controlled by the hydrogeological heterogeneity in the local groundwater flow system.

The vertical advection of anomalous subsurface temperature by the mean upwelling and the zonal advection of mean sea surface temperature (SST) by anomalous current are known to be essential for the equatorial SST anomaly associated with the El Nin o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the coupled model, these two processes are referred to as the thermocline feedback and the zonal advective feedback, respectively. Using a version of a recharge oscillator model for ENSO obtained from the stripped-down approximation of the Cane-Zebiak-type model, it is demonstrated that these two feedbacks, which are linked dynamically through the geostrophic approximation, tend constructively to contribute to the growth and phase transition of ENSO. However, these two feedbacks control the leading coupled mode in different ways. The thermocline feedback leads to a coupled mode through the merging of the damped SST mode and ocean adjustment mode, whereas the zonal advective feedback tends to destabilize the gravest ocean basin mode. With both of these feedbacks, the leading modes of the coupled model still can be traced back to these different origins under moderate changes in the model setup. The main consequence of these sensitivities is that the growth rate and frequency of the ENSO mode may be sensitive to slight changes in basic-state parameters, which control the strength of these feedbacks.

It has been long known that cloud microphysics can have a significant impact on the simulations of precipitation; however, there have been few studies so far that have investigated the effect of cloud microphysics on tropical cyclones. In the most advanced simulation of tropical cyclones by numerical models, the use of explicit cloud microphysics becomes more and more attractive with cumulus parameterization bypassed at very high resolutions. In this study, the sensitivity of the simulated tropical cyclone structure and intensity to the choice and details of cloud microphysics parameterization is investigated using the triply nested movable mesh tropical cyclone model TCM3 described in Part I but with several refinements. Three different cloud microphysics parameterization schemes are tested, including the warm-rain-only cloud microphysics scheme (WMRN) and two mixed-icephase cloud microphysics schemes, one of which has three ice species (cloud ice-snow-graupel; CTRL) while the other has hail instead of graupel (HAIL).

Viral ecology is a rapidly progressing area of research, as molecular methods have improved significantly for targeted research on specific populations and whole communities. To interpret and synthesize global viral diversity and distribution, it is feasible to assess whether macroecology concepts can apply to marine viruses. We review how viral and host life history and physical properties can influence viral distribution in light of biogeography and metacommunity ecology paradigms. We highlight analytical approaches that can be applied to emerging global data sets and meta-analyses to identify individual taxa with global influence and drivers of emergent properties that influence microbial community structure by drawing on examples across the spectrum of viral taxa, from RNA to ssDNA and dsDNA viruses.

Effective handwashing with soap requires reliable access to water supplies. However, more than three billion persons do not have household-level access to piped water. This research addresses the challenge of improving hand hygiene within water-constrained environments. The antimicrobial efficacy of alcohol-based hand sanitizer, a waterless hand hygiene product, was evaluated and compared with handwashing with soap and water in field conditions in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Hand sanitizer use by mothers resulted in 0.66 and 0.64 log reductions per hand of Escherichia coli and fecal streptococci, respectively. In comparison, handwashing with soap resulted in 0.50 and 0.25 log reductions per hand of E. coli and fecal streptococci, respectively. Hand sanitizer was significantly better than handwashing with respect to reduction in levels of fecal streptococci (P = 0.01). The feasibility and health impacts of promoting hand sanitizer as an alternative hand hygiene option for water-constrained environments should be assessed.

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is a swath mapping radar interferometer that would provide new measurements of inland water surface elevation (WSE) for rivers, lakes, wetlands, and reservoirs. SWOT WSE estimates would provide a source of information for characterizing streamflow globally and would complement existing <i xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">in situ</i> gage networks. In this paper, we evaluate the accuracy of river discharge estimates that would be obtained from SWOT measurements over the Ohio river and eleven of its major tributaries within the context of a virtual mission (VM). SWOT VM measurements are obtained by using an instrument measurement model coupled to simulated WSE from the hydrodynamic model LISFLOOD-FP, using USGS streamflow gages as boundary conditions and validation data. Most model pixels were estimated two or three times per 22-day orbit period. These measurements are then input into an algorithm to obtain estimates of river depth and discharge. The algorithm is based on Manning's equation, in which river width and slope are obtained from SWOT, and roughness is estimated <i xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">a priori.</i> SWOT discharge estimates are compared to the discharge simulated by LISFLOOD-FP. Instantaneous discharge estimates over the one-year evaluation period had median normalized root mean square error of 10.9%, and 86% of all instantaneous errors are less than 25%.

Abstract A backstripping analysis of 225 wells located within the Sirt Basin, Libya, provides new constraints on the development of the Sirt Basin. Four tectonic phases are identified from Late Jurassic to present. The presentation of contour maps of subsidence and crustal stretching allows spatial and temporal variations in stretching to be visualized. A close match is observed with stretching phases documented for other African basins, consistent with discrete phases in the opening of the Tethys and Atlantic. Rifting and reactivation appear to be primarily controlled by the orientation of the basin and the underlying basement structure with respect to stress directions. The tectonic subsidence curves have also been forward modeled with an automated modeling technique to quantify the variation in timing and the magnitude of rifting. The tectonic subsidence history of the Sirt Basin is characterized by periods of stretching, alternating with periods of relative tectonic quiescence and thermal subsidence. Stretching started at the centers of the troughs and migrated toward the platform crests.

Critical GIS emphasized the ways in which social, political, and economic inequalities are (re)produced through spatial information technologies and attendant practices. In the mid‐1990s through the early 2000s, feminist interventions challenged the presumed gender neutrality and universality of GIS and brought gender to the fore of Critical GIS concerns. However, the rise of nascent web‐based spatial information technologies—or new spatial media—signals the need to extend this work to determine how it is that gender matters differently in this newly diversified, pervasive, and public context of geographic information technologies. Building on an analysis of online commentaries and an assessment of the functions and promotional material of several illustrative applications, we argue that gender continues to “matter” vis‐à‐vis new spatial media in three key dimensions: i) new practices of data creation and curation; ii) affordances of new technologies; and iii) new digital spatial mediations of everyday life.

The total heat gained by the North Atlantic Ocean over the past 50 years is equivalent to a basinwide increase in the flux of heat across the ocean surface of 0.4 +/- 0.05 watts per square meter. We show, however, that this basin has not warmed uniformly: Although the tropics and subtropics have warmed, the subpolar ocean has cooled. These regional differences require local surface heat flux changes (+/-4 watts per square meter) much larger than the basinwide average. Model investigations show that these regional differences can be explained by large-scale, decadal variability in wind and buoyancy forcing as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Whether the overall heat gain is due to anthropogenic warming is difficult to confirm because strong natural variability in this ocean basin is potentially masking such input at the present time.