Department of Health and Social Care

BACKGROUND: Improving the design and implementation of evidence-based practice depends on successful behaviour change interventions. This requires an appropriate method for characterising interventions and linking them to an analysis of the targeted behaviour. There exists a plethora of frameworks of behaviour change interventions, but it is not clear how well they serve this purpose. This paper evaluates these frameworks, and develops and evaluates a new framework aimed at overcoming their limitations. METHODS: A systematic search of electronic databases and consultation with behaviour change experts were used to identify frameworks of behaviour change interventions. These were evaluated according to three criteria: comprehensiveness, coherence, and a clear link to an overarching model of behaviour. A new framework was developed to meet these criteria. The reliability with which it could be applied was examined in two domains of behaviour change: tobacco control and obesity. RESULTS: Nineteen frameworks were identified covering nine intervention functions and seven policy categories that could enable those interventions. None of the frameworks reviewed covered the full range of intervention functions or policies, and only a minority met the criteria of coherence or linkage to a model of behaviour. At the centre of a proposed new framework is a 'behaviour system' involving three essential conditions: capability, opportunity, and motivation (what we term the 'COM-B system'). This forms the hub of a 'behaviour change wheel' (BCW) around which are positioned the nine intervention functions aimed at addressing deficits in one or more of these conditions; around this are placed seven categories of policy that could enable those interventions to occur. The BCW was used reliably to characterise interventions within the English Department of Health's 2010 tobacco control strategy and the National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence's guidance on reducing obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions and policies to change behaviour can be usefully characterised by means of a BCW comprising: a 'behaviour system' at the hub, encircled by intervention functions and then by policy categories. Research is needed to establish how far the BCW can lead to more efficient design of effective interventions.

BACKGROUND: CONSORT guidelines call for precise reporting of behavior change interventions: we need rigorous methods of characterizing active content of interventions with precision and specificity. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to develop an extensive, consensually agreed hierarchically structured taxonomy of techniques [behavior change techniques (BCTs)] used in behavior change interventions. METHODS: In a Delphi-type exercise, 14 experts rated labels and definitions of 124 BCTs from six published classification systems. Another 18 experts grouped BCTs according to similarity of active ingredients in an open-sort task. Inter-rater agreement amongst six researchers coding 85 intervention descriptions by BCTs was assessed. RESULTS: This resulted in 93 BCTs clustered into 16 groups. Of the 26 BCTs occurring at least five times, 23 had adjusted kappas of 0.60 or above. CONCLUSIONS: "BCT taxonomy v1," an extensive taxonomy of 93 consensually agreed, distinct BCTs, offers a step change as a method for specifying interventions, but we anticipate further development and evaluation based on international, interdisciplinary consensus.

Camouflaging of autistic characteristics in social situations is hypothesised as a common social coping strategy for adults with autism spectrum conditions (ASC). Camouflaging may impact diagnosis, quality of life, and long-term outcomes, but little is known about it. This qualitative study examined camouflaging experiences in 92 adults with ASC, with questions focusing on the nature, motivations, and consequences of camouflaging. Thematic analysis was used to identify key elements of camouflaging, which informed development of a three-stage model of the camouflaging process. First, motivations for camouflaging included fitting in and increasing connections with others. Second, camouflaging itself comprised a combination of masking and compensation techniques. Third, short- and long-term consequences of camouflaging included exhaustion, challenging stereotypes, and threats to self-perception.

BACKGROUND: There is major concern about the impact of the global COVID-19 outbreak on mental health. Several studies suggest that mental health deteriorated in many countries before and during enforced isolation (ie, lockdown), but it remains unknown how mental health has changed week by week over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to explore the trajectories of anxiety and depression over the 20 weeks after lockdown was announced in England, and compare the growth trajectories by individual characteristics. METHODS: In this prospective longitudinal observational study, we analysed data from the UCL COVID-19 Social Study, a panel study weighted to population proportions, which collects information on anxiety (using the Generalised Anxiety Disorder assessment) and depressive symptoms (using the Patient Health Questionnaire) weekly in the UK since March 21, 2020. We included data from adults living in England who had at least three repeated measures between March 23 and Aug 9, 2020. Analyses were done using latent growth models, which were fitted to account for sociodemographic and health covariates. FINDINGS: Between March 23, and Aug 9, data from over 70 000 adults were collected in the UCL COVID-19 Social Study. When including participants living in England with three follow-up measures and no missing values, our analytic sample consisted of 36 520 participants. The average depression score was 6·6 (SD=6·0, range 0-27) and the average anxiety score 5·7 (SD=5·6, range 0-21) in week 1. Anxiety and depression levels both declined across the first 20 weeks following the introduction of lockdown in England (b=-1·93, SE=0·26, p<0·0001 for anxiety; b=-2·52, SE=0·28, p<0·0001 for depressive symptoms). The fastest decreases were seen across the strict lockdown period (between weeks 2 and 5), with symptoms plateauing as further lockdown easing measures were introduced (between weeks 16 and 20). Being a woman or younger, having lower educational attainment, lower income, or pre-existing mental health conditions, and living alone or with children were all risk factors for higher levels of anxiety and depression at the start of lockdown. Many of these inequalities in experiences were reduced as lockdown continued, but differences were still evident 20 weeks after the start of lockdown. INTERPRETATION: These data suggest that the highest levels of depression and anxiety occurred in the early stages of lockdown but declined fairly rapidly, possibly because individuals adapted to circumstances. Our findings emphasise the importance of supporting individuals in the lead-up to future lockdowns to try to reduce distress, and highlight that groups already at risk for poor mental health before the pandemic have remained at risk throughout lockdown and its aftermath. FUNDING: Nuffield Foundation, UK Research and Innovation, Wellcome Trust.

1.1 Introduction The breast cancer screening programmes in the United Kingdom currently invite women aged 50–70 years for screening mammography every 3 years. Since the time the screening programmes were established, there has been debate, at times sharply polarised, over the magnitude of their benefit and harm, and the balance between them. The expected major benefit is reduction in mortality from breast cancer. The major harm is overdiagnosis and its consequences; overdiagnosis refers to the detection of cancers on screening, which would not have become clinically apparent in the woman’s lifetime in the absence of screening. Professor Sir Mike Richards, National Cancer Director, England, and Dr Harpal Kumar, Chief Executive Officer of Cancer Research UK, asked Professor Sir Michael Marmot to convene and chair an independent panel to review the evidence on benefits and harms of breast screening in the context of the UK breast screening programmes. The panel, authors of this report, reviewed the extensive literature and heard testimony from experts in the field who were the main contributors to the debate. The nature of information communicated to the public, which too has sparked debate, was not part of the terms of reference of the panel, which are listed in Appendix 1 . 1.2 Relative mortality benefit The purpose of screening is to advance the time of diagnosis so that prognosis can be improved by earlier intervention. A consequence of earlier diagnosis is that it increases the apparent incidence of breast cancer in a screened population and extends the average time from diagnosis to death, even if screening were to confer no benefit. The appropriate measure of benefit, therefore, is reduction in mortality from breast cancer in women offered screening compared with women not offered screening. In the panel’s judgement, the best evidence for the relative benefit of screening on mortality reduction comes from 11 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of breast screening. Meta-analysis of these trials with 13 years of follow-up estimated a 20% reduction in breast cancer mortality in women invited for screening. The relative reduction in mortality will be higher for women actually attending screening, but by how much is difficult to say because women who do not attend are likely to have a different background risk. Three types of uncertainties surround this estimate of 20% reduction in breast cancer mortality. The first is statistical: the 95% confidence interval (CI) around the relative risk (RR) reduction of 20% was 11–27%. The second is bias: there are a number of potential sources of distortion in the trials that have been widely discussed in the literature ranging from suboptimal randomisation to problems in adjudicating cause of death. The third is the relevance of these old trials to the current screening programmes. The panel acknowledged these uncertainties, but concluded that a 20% reduction is still the most reasonable estimate of the effect of the current UK screening programmes on breast cancer mortality. Most other reviews of the RCTs have yielded similar estimates of relative benefit. The RCTs were all conducted at least 20–30 years ago. More contemporary estimates of the benefit of breast cancer screening come from observational studies. The panel reviewed three types of observational studies. The first were ecological studies comparing areas, or time periods, when screening programmes were and were not in place. These have generated diverse findings, partly because of the major advances in treatment of breast cancer, which have a demonstrably larger influence on mortality trends than does screening, and partly because of the difficulty of excluding imbalances in other factors that could affect breast cancer mortality. The panel did not consider these studies helpful in estimating the effect of screening on mortality. The other two types of studies, case–control studies and incidence-based mortality studies, showed breast screening to confer a greater benefit than did the trials. Although these studies, in general, attempted to control for non-comparability of screened and unscreened women, the panel was concerned that residual bias could inflate the estimate of benefit. However, the panel notes that these studies’ findings are in the same direction as the trials. 1.3 Absolute mortality benefit Estimates of absolute benefit of screening have varied from one breast cancer death avoided for 2000 women invited to screening to 1 avoided for about 100 women screened, about a 20-fold difference. Major determinants of that large variation are the age of women screened, and the durations of screening and follow-up. The age of the women invited is important, as mortality from breast cancer increases markedly with age. The panel therefore applied the relative mortality reduction of 20% to achieve the observed cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer mortality over the ages 55–79 years for women in the United Kingdom, assuming that women who began screening at 50 years would gain no benefit in the first 5 years, but that the mortality reduction would continue for 10 years after screening ended. This yielded the estimate that for every 235 women invited to screening, one breast cancer death would be prevented; correspondingly 180 women would need to be screened to prevent one breast cancer death. Uncertainties in the figure of a 20% RR reduction would carry through to these estimates of absolute mortality benefit. Nonetheless, the panel’s estimate of benefit is in the range of one breast cancer death prevented for ∼ 250 women invited, rather than the range of 1 in 2000. 1.4 Overdiagnosis The major harm of screening considered by the panel was that of overdiagnosis. Given the definition of an overdiagnosed cancer, either invasive or non-invasive, as one diagnosed by screening, which would not otherwise have come to attention in the woman’s lifetime, there is need for a long follow-up to assess the frequency of overdiagnosis. In the view of the panel, some cancers detected by screening will be overdiagnosed, but the uncertainty surrounding the extent of overdiagnosis is greater than that for the estimate of mortality benefit because there are few sources of reliable data. The issue for the UK screening programmes is the magnitude of overdiagnosis in women who have been in a screening programme from age 50 to 70, then followed for the rest of their lives. There are no data to answer this question directly. Any estimate will therefore be, at best, provisional. Although the definition of an overdiagnosed case, and thus the numerator in a ratio, is clear, the choice of denominator has been the source of further variability in published estimates. Different studies have used: only the cancers found by screening; cancers found during the whole screening period, both screen-detected and interval; cancers diagnosed during the screening period and for the remainder of the women’s lifetime. The panel focused on two estimates: the first from a population perspective using as the denominator the number of breast cancers, both invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), diagnosed throughout the rest of a woman’s lifetime after the age that screening begins, and the second from the perspective of a woman invited to screening using the total number of breast cancers diagnosed during the screening period as the denominator. The panel thought that the best evidence came from three RCTs that did not systematically screen the control group at the end of the screening period and followed these women for several more years. The frequency of overdiagnosis was of the order of 11% from a population perspective, and about 19% from the perspective of a woman invited to screening. Trials that included systematic screening of the control group at the end of the active part of the trial were not considered to provide informative estimates of the frequency of overdiagnosis. Information from observational studies was also considered. One method that has been used is investigation of time trends in incidence rates of breast cancer for different age groups over the period that population screening was introduced. The published results of these studies varied greatly and have been interpreted as providing either reassurance or cause for alarm. So great was the variation in results that the panel conducted an exercise by varying the assumptions and statistical methods underlying these studies, using the same data sets; estimates of overdiagnosis rates were found to vary across the range of 0–36% of invasive breast cancers diagnosed during the screening period. The panel had no reason to favour one set of estimates over another, and concluded that this method could give no reliable estimate of the extent of overdiagnosis. Were it possible to distinguish at screening those cancers that would not otherwise have come to attention from those that, untreated, would lead to death, the overdiagnosis problem could be much reduced, at least in terms of unnecessary worry and treatment. Currently this is not possible, so neither the woman nor her doctor can know whether a screen-detected cancer is an ‘overdiagnosed’ case or not. In particular, DCIS, most often diagnosed at screening, does not inevitably equate to overdiagnosis – screen-detected DCIS, after wide local excision (WLE) only, is associated with subsequent development of invasive breast cancer in 10% of women within 10 years. The consequences of overdiagnosis matter, women are turned into patients unnecessarily, surgery and other forms of cancer treatment are undertaken, and quality of life and psychological well being are adversely affected. 1.5 The balance of benefit and harm The panel estimates that an invitation to breast screening delivers about a 20% reduction in breast cancer mortality. For the UK screening programmes, this currently corresponds to about 1300 deaths from breast cancer being prevented each year, or equivalently about 22 000 years of life being saved. However, this benefit must be balanced against the harms of screening, especially the risk of overdiagnosis. In the panel’s view, overdiagnosed cancers certainly occur, but the frequency in a screening programme of 20 years duration is unknown. Estimates from trials of shorter duration suggest overdiagnosis of about 11% as a proportion of breast cancer incidence during the screening period and for the remainder of the woman’s lifetime, or equivalently about 19% as a proportion of cancers diagnosed during the screening period. Any excess mortality stemming from the investigation and treatment of breast cancer is considered by the panel to be small and considerably outweighed by the benefits of treatment. Some other harms, including increased anxiety and discomfort caused by screening, are also acknowledged. Notionally, for 10 000 women invited to screening, from age 50 for 20 years, it is estimated that 681 cancers (invasive and DCIS) will be diagnosed, of which 129 will represent overdiagnosis (using the 19% estimate of overdiagnosis) and 43 deaths from breast cancer will be prevented. Given that the treatment for breast cancer has improved, is screening no longer relevant? The panel’s view is that the benefits of screening and those of better treatments are reasonably considered independent. Uncertainty about possible interaction between the benefits of screening and of contemporary treatments is not a reason for stopping breast screening. The panel was not asked to comment on costs, both of interventions and the consequences of overdiagnosis. With accurate figures an estimate of cost-benefit could be made and compared with other interventions, but would be a significant piece of work in its own right. An individual woman cannot know whether she is one of the numbers who will benefit or be harmed from screening. If she chooses to be screened, it should be in the knowledge that she is accepting the chance of benefit, having her life extended, knowing that there is also a risk of overdiagnosis and unnecessary treatment. Similarly, a woman who declines the invitation to screening needs to recognise that she runs a slightly higher risk of dying from breast cancer. 1.6 Conclusions and recommendations Breast screening extends lives. The panel’s review of the evidence on benefit – the older RCTs, and those more recent observational studies – points to a 20% reduction in mortality in women invited to screening. A great deal of uncertainty surrounds this estimate, but it represents the panel’s overview of the evidence. This corresponds to one breast cancer death averted for every 235 women invited to screening for 20 years, and one death averted for every 180 women who attend screening. The panel’s best estimate is that the breast screening programmes in the United Kingdom, inviting women aged 50–70 every 3 years, prevent about 1300 breast cancer deaths a year, a most welcome benefit to women and to the public health. However, there is a cost to women’s well being. In addition to extending some lives by early detection and treatment, mammographic screening detects cancers, proven to be cancers by pathological testing, that would not have come to clinical attention in the woman’s life, were it not for screening - called overdiagnosis. The consequence of overdiagnosis is that women have their cancer treated by surgery, radiotherapy and medication, but neither the woman nor her doctor can know whether this particular cancer would be one that could possibly lead to death, or one that would have remained undetected for the rest of the woman’s life. The panel sought to estimate the level of overdiagnosis in women screened for 20 years and followed to the end of their lives. Estimates of overdiagnosis abound, from near to zero to 50%, but there is a paucity of reliable data to answer this question. There has not even been agreement on how to measure overdiagnosis. On the basis of follow-up of three RCTs, the panel estimated that in women invited to screening, about 11% of the cancers diagnosed in their lifetime constitute overdiagnosis, and about 19% of the cancers diagnosed during the period that women are actually in the screening programme; but the panel emphasises these figures are the best estimates from a paucity of reliable data. Putting together benefit and overdiagnosis from the above figures, the panel estimates that for 10 000 UK women invited to screening from age 50 for 20 years, about 681 cancers will be found of which 129 will represent overdiagnosis, and 43 deaths from breast cancer will be prevented. In round terms, therefore, for each breast cancer death prevented, about three overdiagnosed cases will be identified and treated. Of the ∼ 307 000 women aged 50–52 who are invited to screening each year, just >1% would have an overdiagnosed cancer during the next 20 years. Given the uncertainties around the estimates, the figures quoted give a spurious impression of accuracy. The panel concludes that the UK breast screening programmes confer significant benefit and should continue. The greater the proportion of women who accept the invitation to be screened, the greater is the benefit to the public health in terms of reduction in mortality from breast cancer. However for each woman the choice is clear: on the plus side screening confers a likely reduction in mortality from breast cancer because of early detection and treatment. On the negative side, is the knowledge that she has perhaps a 1% chance of having a cancer diagnosed, and treated with surgery and other modalities, which would never have caused problems had she not been screened. Evidence from a focus group conducted by Cancer Research UK and attended by two panel members, and in line with previous similar studies, was that this was an offer many women will feel is worth accepting: the treatment of overdiagnosed cancer may cause suffering and anxiety, but that suffering is worth the gain from the potential reduction in breast cancer mortality. Clear communication of these harms and benefits to women is of utmost importance and goes to the heart of how a modern health system should function. There is a body of knowledge on how women want information presented, and this should inform the design of information to the public.

AIM: To determine trends and current estimates in regional and global prevalence of cerebral palsy (CP). METHOD: A systematic analysis of data from participating CP registers/surveillance systems and population-based prevalence studies (from birth year 1995) was performed. Quality and risk of bias were assessed for both data sources. Analyses were conducted for pre-/perinatal, postnatal, neonatal, and overall CP. For each region, trends were statistically classified as increasing, decreasing, heterogeneous, or no change, and most recent prevalence estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Meta-analyses were conducted to determine current birth prevalence estimates (from birth year 2010). RESULTS: Forty-one regions from 27 countries across five continents were represented. Pre-/perinatal birth prevalence declined significantly across Europe and Australia (11 out of 14 regions), with no change in postneonatal CP. From the limited but increasing data available from regions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), birth prevalence for pre-/perinatal CP was as high as 3.4 per 1000 (95% CI 3.0-3.9) live births. Following meta-analyses, birth prevalence for pre-/perinatal CP in regions from high-income countries (HICs) was 1.5 per 1000 (95% CI 1.4-1.6) live births, and 1.6 per 1000 (95% CI 1.5-1.7) live births when postneonatal CP was included. INTERPRETATION: The birth prevalence estimate of CP in HICs declined to 1.6 per 1000 live births. Data available from LMICs indicated markedly higher birth prevalence. WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS: • Birth prevalence of pre-/perinatal cerebral palsy (CP) in high-income countries (HICs) is decreasing. • Current overall CP birth prevalence for HICs is 1.6 per 1000 live births. • Trends in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) cannot currently be measured. • Current birth prevalence in LMICs is markedly higher than in HICs. • Active surveillance of CP helps to assess the impact of medical advancements and social/economic development. • Population-based data on prevalence and trends of CP are critical to inform policy.

The diagnostic concepts of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and other disorders specifically associated with stress have been intensively discussed among neuro- and social scientists, clinicians, epidemiologists, public health planners and humanitarian aid workers around the world. PTSD and adjustment disorder are among the most widely used diagnoses in mental health care worldwide. This paper describes proposals that aim to maximize clinical utility for the classification and grouping of disorders specifically associated with stress in the forthcoming 11th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11). Proposals include a narrower concept for PTSD that does not allow the diagnosis to be made based entirely on non-specific symptoms; a new complex PTSD category that comprises three clusters of intra- and interpersonal symptoms in addition to core PTSD symptoms; a new diagnosis of prolonged grief disorder, used to describe patients that undergo an intensely painful, disabling, and abnormally persistent response to bereavement; a major revision of "adjustment disorder" involving increased specification of symptoms; and a conceptualization of "acute stress reaction" as a normal phenomenon that still may require clinical intervention. These proposals were developed with specific considerations given to clinical utility and global applicability in both low- and high-income countries.

Abstract Objective To characterise the clinical features of children and young people admitted to hospital with laboratory confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the UK and explore factors associated with admission to critical care, mortality, and development of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children and adolescents temporarily related to coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) (MIS-C). Design Prospective observational cohort study with rapid data gathering and near real time analysis. Setting 260 hospitals in England, Wales, and Scotland between 17 January and 3 July 2020, with a minimum follow-up time of two weeks (to 17 July 2020). Participants 651 children and young people aged less than 19 years admitted to 138 hospitals and enrolled into the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emergency Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK study with laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2. Main outcome measures Admission to critical care (high dependency or intensive care), in-hospital mortality, or meeting the WHO preliminary case definition for MIS-C. Results Median age was 4.6 (interquartile range 0.3-13.7) years, 35% (225/651) were under 12 months old, and 56% (367/650) were male. 57% (330/576) were white, 12% (67/576) South Asian, and 10% (56/576) black. 42% (276/651) had at least one recorded comorbidity. A systemic mucocutaneous-enteric cluster of symptoms was identified, which encompassed the symptoms for the WHO MIS-C criteria. 18% (116/632) of children were admitted to critical care. On multivariable analysis, this was associated with age under 1 month (odds ratio 3.21, 95% confidence interval 1.36 to 7.66; P=0.008), age 10-14 years (3.23, 1.55 to 6.99; P=0.002), and black ethnicity (2.82, 1.41 to 5.57; P=0.003). Six (1%) of 627 patients died in hospital, all of whom had profound comorbidity. 11% (52/456) met the WHO MIS-C criteria, with the first patient developing symptoms in mid-March. Children meeting MIS-C criteria were older (median age 10.7 (8.3-14.1) v 1.6 (0.2-12.9) years; P&lt;0.001) and more likely to be of non-white ethnicity (64% (29/45) v 42% (148/355); P=0.004). Children with MIS-C were five times more likely to be admitted to critical care (73% (38/52) v 15% (62/404); P&lt;0.001). In addition to the WHO criteria, children with MIS-C were more likely to present with fatigue (51% (24/47) v 28% (86/302); P=0.004), headache (34% (16/47) v 10% (26/263); P&lt;0.001), myalgia (34% (15/44) v 8% (21/270); P&lt;0.001), sore throat (30% (14/47) v (12% (34/284); P=0.003), and lymphadenopathy (20% (9/46) v 3% (10/318); P&lt;0.001) and to have a platelet count of less than 150 × 10 9 /L (32% (16/50) v 11% (38/348); P&lt;0.001) than children who did not have MIS-C. No deaths occurred in the MIS-C group. Conclusions Children and young people have less severe acute covid-19 than adults. A systemic mucocutaneous-enteric symptom cluster was also identified in acute cases that shares features with MIS-C. This study provides additional evidence for refining the WHO MIS-C preliminary case definition. Children meeting the MIS-C criteria have different demographic and clinical features depending on whether they have acute SARS-CoV-2 infection (polymerase chain reaction positive) or are post-acute (antibody positive). Study registration ISRCTN66726260.

For a proportion of people covid-19 leads to long term effects that can have a significant impact on quality of life. According to the Office for National Statistics, around one in five people testing positive for covid-19 exhibit symptoms for a period of five weeks or more.1 This presents challenges for determining best-practice standards of care. As yet, no commonly agreed clinical definition of long term covid-19 exists, nor a clear definition of treatment pathway. To assist clinicians, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN), and the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) have developed the “COVID-19 rapid guideline: managing the long term effects of COVID-19.”2 It covers care for people with signs and symptoms that continue for more than four weeks, and which developed during or after an infection consistent with covid-19, and which are not explained by alternative diagnoses.&#13;\n&#13;\n

Despite evidence of widespread belief in conspiracy theories, there remains a dearth of research on the individual difference correlates of conspiracist ideation. In two studies, we sought to overcome this limitation by examining correlations between conspiracist ideation and a range of individual psychological factors. In Study 1, 817 Britons indicated their agreement with conspiracist ideation concerning the July 7, 2005 (7/7), London bombings, and completed a battery of individual difference scales. Results showed that stronger belief in 7/7 conspiracy theories was predicted by stronger belief in other real-world conspiracy theories, greater exposure to conspiracist ideation, higher political cynicism, greater support for democratic principles, more negative attitudes to authority, lower self-esteem, and lower Agreeableness. In Study 2, 281 Austrians indicated their agreement with an entirely fictitious conspiracy theory and completed a battery of individual difference measures not examined in Study 1. Results showed that belief in the entirely fictitious conspiracy theory was significantly associated with stronger belief in other real-world conspiracy theories, stronger paranormal beliefs, and lower crystallized intelligence. These results are discussed in terms of the potential of identifying individual difference constellations among conspiracy theorists.

The rate of surgical procedures in the older population is rising. Despite surgical, anaesthetic and medical advances, older surgical patients continue to suffer from adverse postoperative outcomes. Comorbidities and reduction in physiological reserve are consistently identified as major predictors of poor postoperative outcome in this population. Frailty can be defined as a lack of physiological reserve seen across multiple organ systems and is an independent predictor of mortality, morbidity and institutionalisation after surgery. Despite this identification of frailty as a significant predictor of adverse postoperative outcome, there is not yet a consensus on the definition of frailty or how best to assess and diagnose it. This review describes our current definitions of frailty and discusses the available methods of assessing frailty, the impact on the older surgical population and the emerging potential for modification of this important syndrome.

Abstract Objective To derive and validate a risk prediction algorithm to estimate hospital admission and mortality outcomes from coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in adults. Design Population based cohort study. Setting and participants QResearch database, comprising 1205 general practices in England with linkage to covid-19 test results, Hospital Episode Statistics, and death registry data. 6.08 million adults aged 19-100 years were included in the derivation dataset and 2.17 million in the validation dataset. The derivation and first validation cohort period was 24 January 2020 to 30 April 2020. The second temporal validation cohort covered the period 1 May 2020 to 30 June 2020. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was time to death from covid-19, defined as death due to confirmed or suspected covid-19 as per the death certification or death occurring in a person with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the period 24 January to 30 April 2020. The secondary outcome was time to hospital admission with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Models were fitted in the derivation cohort to derive risk equations using a range of predictor variables. Performance, including measures of discrimination and calibration, was evaluated in each validation time period. Results 4384 deaths from covid-19 occurred in the derivation cohort during follow-up and 1722 in the first validation cohort period and 621 in the second validation cohort period. The final risk algorithms included age, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index, and a range of comorbidities. The algorithm had good calibration in the first validation cohort. For deaths from covid-19 in men, it explained 73.1% (95% confidence interval 71.9% to 74.3%) of the variation in time to death (R 2 ); the D statistic was 3.37 (95% confidence interval 3.27 to 3.47), and Harrell’s C was 0.928 (0.919 to 0.938). Similar results were obtained for women, for both outcomes, and in both time periods. In the top 5% of patients with the highest predicted risks of death, the sensitivity for identifying deaths within 97 days was 75.7%. People in the top 20% of predicted risk of death accounted for 94% of all deaths from covid-19. Conclusion The QCOVID population based risk algorithm performed well, showing very high levels of discrimination for deaths and hospital admissions due to covid-19. The absolute risks presented, however, will change over time in line with the prevailing SARS-C0V-2 infection rate and the extent of social distancing measures in place, so they should be interpreted with caution. The model can be recalibrated for different time periods, however, and has the potential to be dynamically updated as the pandemic evolves.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost of atrial fibrillation (AF) to health and social services in the UK in 1995 and, based on epidemiological trends, to project this estimate to 2000. DESIGN, SETTING, AND MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Contemporary estimates of health care activity related to AF were applied to the whole population of the UK on an age and sex specific basis for the year 1995. The activities considered (and costs calculated) were hospital admissions, outpatient consultations, general practice consultations, and drug treatment (including the cost of monitoring anticoagulant treatment). By adjusting for the progressive aging of the British population and related increases in hospital admissions, the cost of AF was also projected to the year 2000. RESULTS: There were 534 000 people with AF in the UK during 1995. The "direct" cost of health care for these patients was 244 million pounds sterling (approximately 350 million euros) or 0.62% of total National Health Service (NHS) expenditure. Hospitalisations and drug prescriptions accounted for 50% and 20% of this expenditure, respectively. Long term nursing home care after hospital admission cost an additional 46.4 million pounds sterling (approximately 66 million euros). The direct cost of AF rose to 459 million pounds sterling (approximately 655 million euros) in 2000, equivalent to 0.97% of total NHS expenditure based on 1995 figures. Nursing home costs rose to 111 million pounds sterling (approximately 160 million euros). CONCLUSIONS: AF is an extremely costly public health problem.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the literature on the implementation of e-health to identify: (i) barriers and facilitators to e-health implementation, and (ii) outstanding gaps in research on the subject. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PSYCINFO and the Cochrane Library were searched for reviews published between 1 January 1995 and 17 March 2009. Studies had to be systematic reviews, narrative reviews, qualitative metasyntheses or meta-ethnographies of e-health implementation. Abstracts and papers were double screened and data were extracted on country of origin; e-health domain; publication date; aims and methods; databases searched; inclusion and exclusion criteria and number of papers included. Data were analysed qualitatively using normalization process theory as an explanatory coding framework. FINDINGS: Inclusion criteria were met by 37 papers; 20 had been published between 1995 and 2007 and 17 between 2008 and 2009. Methodological quality was poor: 19 papers did not specify the inclusion and exclusion criteria and 13 did not indicate the precise number of articles screened. The use of normalization process theory as a conceptual framework revealed that relatively little attention was paid to: (i) work directed at making sense of e-health systems, specifying their purposes and benefits, establishing their value to users and planning their implementation; (ii) factors promoting or inhibiting engagement and participation; (iii) effects on roles and responsibilities; (iv) risk management, and (v) ways in which implementation processes might be reconfigured by user-produced knowledge. CONCLUSION: The published literature focused on organizational issues, neglecting the wider social framework that must be considered when introducing new technologies.

BACKGROUND: To date, there has been no systematic examination of the relationship between international normalized ratio (INR) control measurements and the prediction of adverse events in patients with atrial fibrillation on oral anticoagulation. METHODS AND RESULTS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane through January 2008 for studies of atrial fibrillation patients receiving vitamin-K antagonists that reported INR control measures (percentage of time in therapeutic range [TTR] and percentage of INRs in range) and major hemorrhage and thromboembolic events. In total, 47 studies were included from 38 published articles. TTR ranged from 29% to 75%; percentage of INRs ranged from 34% to 84%. From studies reporting both measures, TTR significantly correlated with percentage of INRs in range (P<0.001). Randomized controlled trials had better INR control than retrospective studies (64.9% versus 56.4%; P=0.01). TTR negatively correlated with major hemorrhage (r=-0.59; P=0.002) and thromboembolic rates (r=-0.59; P=0.01). This effect was significant in retrospective studies (major hemorrhage, r=-0.78; P=0.006 and thromboembolic rate, r=-0.88; P=0.03) but not in randomized controlled trials (major hemorrhage, r=0.18; P=0.33 and thromboembolic rate, r=-0.61; P=0.07). For retrospective studies, a 6.9% improvement in the TTR significantly reduced major hemorrhage by 1 event per 100 patient-years of treatment (95% CI, 0.29 to 1.71 events). CONCLUSIONS: In atrial fibrillation patients receiving orally administered anticoagulation treatment, TTR and percentage of INRs in range effectively predict INR control. Data from retrospective studies support the use of TTR to accurately predict reductions in adverse events.

BACKGROUND: Since 2000, the scale-up of malaria control interventions has substantially reduced morbidity and mortality caused by the disease globally, fuelling bold aims for disease elimination. In tandem with increased availability of geospatially resolved data, malaria control programmes increasingly use high-resolution maps to characterise spatially heterogeneous patterns of disease risk and thus efficiently target areas of high burden. METHODS: We updated and refined the Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate and clinical incidence models for sub-Saharan Africa, which rely on cross-sectional survey data for parasite rate and intervention coverage. For malaria endemic countries outside of sub-Saharan Africa, we produced estimates of parasite rate and incidence by applying an ecological downscaling approach to malaria incidence data acquired via routine surveillance. Mortality estimates were derived by linking incidence to systematically derived vital registration and verbal autopsy data. Informed by high-resolution covariate surfaces, we estimated P falciparum parasite rate, clinical incidence, and mortality at national, subnational, and 5 × 5 km pixel scales with corresponding uncertainty metrics. FINDINGS: We present the first global, high-resolution map of P falciparum malaria mortality and the first global prevalence and incidence maps since 2010. These results are combined with those for Plasmodium vivax (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The P falciparum estimates span the period 2000-17, and illustrate the rapid decline in burden between 2005 and 2017, with incidence declining by 27·9% and mortality declining by 42·5%. Despite a growing population in endemic regions, P falciparum cases declined between 2005 and 2017, from 232·3 million (95% uncertainty interval 198·8-277·7) to 193·9 million (156·6-240·2) and deaths declined from 925 800 (596 900-1 341 100) to 618 700 (368 600-952 200). Despite the declines in burden, 90·1% of people within sub-Saharan Africa continue to reside in endemic areas, and this region accounted for 79·4% of cases and 87·6% of deaths in 2017. INTERPRETATION: High-resolution maps of P falciparum provide a contemporary resource for informing global policy and malaria control planning, programme implementation, and monitoring initiatives. Amid progress in reducing global malaria burden, areas where incidence trends have plateaued or increased in the past 5 years underscore the fragility of hard-won gains against malaria. Efforts towards elimination should be strengthened in such areas, and those where burden remained high throughout the study period. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: Exercise interventions are often incompletely described in reports of clinical trials, hampering evaluation of results and replication and implementation into practice. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop a standardized method for reporting exercise programs in clinical trials: the Consensus on Exercise Reporting Template (CERT). DESIGN AND METHODS: Using the EQUATOR Network's methodological framework, 137 exercise experts were invited to participate in a Delphi consensus study. A list of 41 items was identified from a meta-epidemiologic study of 73 systematic reviews of exercise. For each item, participants indicated agreement on an 11-point rating scale. Consensus for item inclusion was defined a priori as greater than 70% agreement of respondents rating an item 7 or above. Three sequential rounds of anonymous online questionnaires and a Delphi workshop were used. RESULTS: There were 57 (response rate=42%), 54 (response rate=95%), and 49 (response rate=91%) respondents to rounds 1 through 3, respectively, from 11 countries and a range of disciplines. In round 1, 2 items were excluded; 24 items reached consensus for inclusion (8 items accepted in original format), and 16 items were revised in response to participant suggestions. Of 14 items in round 2, 3 were excluded, 11 reached consensus for inclusion (4 items accepted in original format), and 7 were reworded. Sixteen items were included in round 3, and all items reached greater than 70% consensus for inclusion. LIMITATIONS: The views of included Delphi panelists may differ from those of experts who declined participation and may not fully represent the views of all exercise experts. CONCLUSIONS: The CERT, a 16-item checklist developed by an international panel of exercise experts, is designed to improve the reporting of exercise programs in all evaluative study designs and contains 7 categories: materials, provider, delivery, location, dosage, tailoring, and compliance. The CERT will encourage transparency, improve trial interpretation and replication, and facilitate implementation of effective exercise interventions into practice.

There currently exist no self-report measures of social camouflaging behaviours (strategies used to compensate for or mask autistic characteristics during social interactions). The Camouflaging Autistic Traits Questionnaire (CAT-Q) was developed from autistic adults' experiences of camouflaging, and was administered online to 354 autistic and 478 non-autistic adults. Exploratory factor analysis suggested three factors, comprising of 25 items in total. Good model fit was demonstrated through confirmatory factor analysis, with measurement invariance analyses demonstrating equivalent factor structures across gender and diagnostic group. Internal consistency (α = 0.94) and preliminary test-retest reliability (r = 0.77) were acceptable. Convergent validity was demonstrated through comparison with measures of autistic traits, wellbeing, anxiety, and depression. The present study provides robust psychometric support for the CAT-Q.

In partnership with NHS England, Genomics England’s ambitious plans to embed genomic medicine into routine patient care are well underway. <b>Clare Turnbull and colleagues</b> discuss its progress

The Health of the Nation white paper set a target for 15% reduction in overall suicide rates by the year 2000. If the targets are to be achieved interventions must be identified which are of proved effectiveness. This paper examines the evidence on the available interventions and points of access to the population at risk. No single intervention has been shown in a well conducted randomised controlled trial to reduce suicide. The greatest potential seems to arise from limiting the availability of methods. In particular it is likely that the introduction of the catalytic convertor will lead to reduced lethality of care exhausts and reductions in suicide using this method. General practitioner education programmes, the effectiveness of lithium and maintenance antidepressants, and limits on the quantity of medicines available over the counter or on prescription should all be evaluated. Particular high risk groups include people recently discharged from psychiatric hospitals and those with a history of parasuicide. Many social processes affect suicide rates and these rather than specific interventions may help or hinder the ability to realise the Health of the Nation targets. Well conducted trials are essential to distinguish complex social processes from the effects of specific interventions for suicide prevention. This review of the available evidence offers little support for the aspiration that the posited targets can be achieved on the basis of current knowledge and current policy.