Department of Space

Abstract The Community Land Model (CLM) is the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is used in several global and regional modeling systems. In this paper, we introduce model developments included in CLM version 5 (CLM5), which is the default land component for CESM2. We assess an ensemble of simulations, including prescribed and prognostic vegetation state, multiple forcing data sets, and CLM4, CLM4.5, and CLM5, against a range of metrics including from the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMBv2) package. CLM5 includes new and updated processes and parameterizations: (1) dynamic land units, (2) updated parameterizations and structure for hydrology and snow (spatially explicit soil depth, dry surface layer, revised groundwater scheme, revised canopy interception and canopy snow processes, updated fresh snow density, simple firn model, and Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport), (3) plant hydraulics and hydraulic redistribution, (4) revised nitrogen cycling (flexible leaf stoichiometry, leaf N optimization for photosynthesis, and carbon costs for plant nitrogen uptake), (5) global crop model with six crop types and time‐evolving irrigated areas and fertilization rates, (6) updated urban building energy, (7) carbon isotopes, and (8) updated stomatal physiology. New optional features include demographically structured dynamic vegetation model (Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator), ozone damage to plants, and fire trace gas emissions coupling to the atmosphere. Conclusive establishment of improvement or degradation of individual variables or metrics is challenged by forcing uncertainty, parametric uncertainty, and model structural complexity, but the multivariate metrics presented here suggest a general broad improvement from CLM4 to CLM5.

After more than two decades of relatively little Atlantic hurricane activity, the past decade saw heightened hurricane activity and more than $150 billion in damage in 2004 and 2005. This paper normalizes mainland U.S. hurricane damage from 1900–2005 to 2005 values using two methodologies. A normalization provides an estimate of the damage that would occur if storms from the past made landfall under another year’s societal conditions. Our methods use changes in inflation and wealth at the national level and changes in population and housing units at the coastal county level. Across both normalization methods, there is no remaining trend of increasing absolute damage in the data set, which follows the lack of trends in landfall frequency or intensity observed over the twentieth century. The 1970s and 1980s were notable because of the extremely low amounts of damage compared to other decades. The decade 1996–2005 has the second most damage among the past 11 decades, with only the decade 1926–1935 surpassing its costs. Over the 106years of record, the average annual normalized damage in the continental United States is about $10 billion under both methods. The most damaging single storm is the 1926 Great Miami storm, with $140–157 billion of normalized damage: the most damaging years are 1926 and 2005. Of the total damage, about 85% is accounted for by the intense hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Categories 3, 4, and 5), yet these have comprised only 24% of the U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones. Unless action is taken to address the growing concentration of people and properties in coastal areas where hurricanes strike, damage will increase, and by a great deal, as more and wealthier people increasingly inhabit these coastal locations.

We describe the legacy Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) likelihoods derived from the 2018 data release. The overall approach is similar in spirit to the one retained for the 2013 and 2015 data release, with a hybrid method using different approximations at low ( ℓ < 30) and high ( ℓ ≥ 30) multipoles, implementing several methodological and data-analysis refinements compared to previous releases. With more realistic simulations, and better correction and modelling of systematic effects, we can now make full use of the CMB polarization observed in the High Frequency Instrument (HFI) channels. The low-multipole EE cross-spectra from the 100 GHz and 143 GHz data give a constraint on the ΛCDM reionization optical-depth parameter τ to better than 15% (in combination with the TT low- ℓ data and the high- ℓ temperature and polarization data), tightening constraints on all parameters with posterior distributions correlated with τ . We also update the weaker constraint on τ from the joint TEB likelihood using the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) channels, which was used in 2015 as part of our baseline analysis. At higher multipoles, the CMB temperature spectrum and likelihood are very similar to previous releases. A better model of the temperature-to-polarization leakage and corrections for the effective calibrations of the polarization channels (i.e., the polarization efficiencies) allow us to make full use of polarization spectra, improving the ΛCDM constraints on the parameters θ MC , ω c , ω b , and H 0 by more than 30%, and n s by more than 20% compared to TT-only constraints. Extensive tests on the robustness of the modelling of the polarization data demonstrate good consistency, with some residual modelling uncertainties. At high multipoles, we are now limited mainly by the accuracy of the polarization efficiency modelling. Using our various tests, simulations, and comparison between different high-multipole likelihood implementations, we estimate the consistency of the results to be better than the 0.5 σ level on the ΛCDM parameters, as well as classical single-parameter extensions for the joint likelihood (to be compared to the 0.3 σ levels we achieved in 2015 for the temperature data alone on ΛCDM only). Minor curiosities already present in the previous releases remain, such as the differences between the best-fit ΛCDM parameters for the ℓ < 800 and ℓ > 800 ranges of the power spectrum, or the preference for more smoothing of the power-spectrum peaks than predicted in ΛCDM fits. These are shown to be driven by the temperature power spectrum and are not significantly modified by the inclusion of the polarization data. Overall, the legacy Planck CMB likelihoods provide a robust tool for constraining the cosmological model and represent a reference for future CMB observations.

Euclid is a European Space Agency medium-class mission selected for launch in 2020 within the cosmic vision 2015-2025 program. The main goal of Euclid is to understand the origin of the accelerated expansion of the universe. Euclid will explore the expansion history of the universe and the evolution of cosmic structures by measuring shapes and red-shifts of galaxies as well as the distribution of clusters of galaxies over a large fraction of the sky. Although the main driver for Euclid is the nature of dark energy, Euclid science covers a vast range of topics, from cosmology to galaxy evolution to planetary research. In this review we focus on cosmology and fundamental physics, with a strong emphasis on science beyond the current standard models. We discuss five broad topics: dark energy and modified gravity, dark matter, initial conditions, basic assumptions and questions of methodology in the data analysis. This review has been planned and carried out within Euclid's Theory Working Group and is meant to provide a guide to the scientific themes that will underlie the activity of the group during the preparation of the Euclid mission.

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be a transformative experiment for gravitational wave astronomy, and, as such, it will offer unique opportunities to address many key astrophysical questions in a completely novel way. The synergy with ground-based and space-born instruments in the electromagnetic domain, by enabling multi-messenger observations, will add further to the discovery potential of LISA. The next decade is crucial to prepare the astrophysical community for LISA's first observations. This review outlines the extensive landscape of astrophysical theory, numerical simulations, and astronomical observations that are instrumental for modeling and interpreting the upcoming LISA datastream. To this aim, the current knowledge in three main source classes for LISA is reviewed; ultra-compact stellar-mass binaries, massive black hole binaries, and extreme or interme-diate mass ratio inspirals. The relevant astrophysical processes and the established modeling techniques are summarized. Likewise, open issues and gaps in our understanding of these sources are highlighted, along with an indication of how LISA could help making progress in the different areas. New research avenues that LISA itself, or its joint exploitation with upcoming studies in the electromagnetic domain, will enable, are also illustrated. Improvements in modeling and analysis approaches, such as the combination of numerical simulations and modern data science techniques, are discussed. This review is intended to be a starting point for using LISA as a new discovery tool for understanding our Universe.

The new Horizontal Wind Model (HWM07) provides a statistical representation of the horizontal wind fields of the Earth's atmosphere from the ground to the exosphere (0–500 km). It represents over 50 years of satellite, rocket, and ground‐based wind measurements via a compact Fortran 90 subroutine. The computer model is a function of geographic location, altitude, day of the year, solar local time, and geomagnetic activity. It includes representations of the zonal mean circulation, stationary planetary waves, migrating tides, and the seasonal modulation thereof. HWM07 is composed of two components, a quiet time component for the background state described in this paper and a geomagnetic storm time component (DWM07) described in a companion paper.

Abstract This paper describes a mechanism which has six degrees of freedom, controlled in any combination by six motors, each having a ground abutment. It is considered that by its particular arrangement, this mechanism may form an elegant design for simulating flight conditions in the training of pilots. Unlike most simulators, it has no fixed axes relative to the ground, and therefore within the limits of amplitude of the design it can truly simulate the conditions of banking by carrying the simulation of control surfaces into the axes of the new attitude. Variations in control arrangements are described and their respective design merits considered. Other possible uses for this mechanism are mentioned including automation of production.

The solar wind is a magnetized plasma and as such exhibits collective plasma behavior associated with its characteristic spatial and temporal scales. The characteristic length scales include the size of the heliosphere, the collisional mean free paths of all species, their inertial lengths, their gyration radii, and their Debye lengths. The characteristic timescales include the expansion time, the collision times, and the periods associated with gyration, waves, and oscillations. We review the past and present research into the multi-scale nature of the solar wind based on in-situ spacecraft measurements and plasma theory. We emphasize that couplings of processes across scales are important for the global dynamics and thermodynamics of the solar wind. We describe methods to measure in-situ properties of particles and fields. We then discuss the role of expansion effects, non-equilibrium distribution functions, collisions, waves, turbulence, and kinetic microinstabilities for the multi-scale plasma evolution.

Fluctuations in Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation and mass occur over a variety of time scales, owing to changes in snowfall and ice flow. Here we disentangle these signals by combining 25 years of satellite radar altimeter observations and a regional climate model. From these measurements, patterns of change that are strongly associated with glaciological events emerge. While the majority of the ice sheet has remained stable, 24% of West Antarctica is now in a state of dynamical imbalance. Thinning of the Pine Island and Thwaites glacier basins reaches 122 m in places, and their rates of ice loss are now five times greater than at the start of our survey. By partitioning elevation changes into areas of snow and ice variability, we estimate that East and West Antarctica have contributed -1.1 ± 0.4 and +5.7 ± 0.8 mm to global sea level between 1992 and 2017.

Most investigations of Jaumann and circuit analog absorbers (CA absorbers) consider normal angle of incidence only. This paper expands our investigation to also include oblique angle of incidence as well as arbitrary polarization. Essentially two problems are encountered for oblique angle of incidence: An upward shift of the center frequency; and a mismatch that, in general, will vary with angle of incidence of the incident field. The new contribution given in this paper is that it considers ways to combat both of these dilemmas. Finally, comparison will be made with similar designs obtained by the genetic algorithm (GA) approach. It will be observed that the analytic approach, as used in this paper, in general leads to designs that are not only superior to the GA designs but also simpler, at least in the present case

During Cassini's initial orbit, we observed a dynamic magnetosphere composed primarily of a complex mixture of water-derived atomic and molecular ions. We have identified four distinct regions characterized by differences in both bulk plasma properties and ion composition. Protons are the dominant species outside about 9 RS (where RS is the radial distance from the center of Saturn), whereas inside, the plasma consists primarily of a corotating comet-like mix of water-derived ions with approximately 3% N+. Over the A and B rings, we found an ionosphere in which O2+ and O+ are dominant, which suggests the possible existence of a layer of O2 gas similar to the atmospheres of Europa and Ganymede.

A constellation of small, low-cost satellites is able to make scientifically valuable measurements of the Earth which can be used for weather forecasting, disaster monitoring, and climate studies. Eight CYGNSS satellites were launched into low Earth orbit on December 15, 2016. Each satellite carries a science radar receiver which measures GPS signals reflected from the Earth surface. The signals contain information about the surface, including wind speed over ocean, and soil moisture and flooding over land. The satellites are distributed around their orbit plane so that measurements can be made more often to capture extreme weather events. Innovative engineering approaches are used to reduce per satellite cost, increase the number in the constellation, and improve temporal sampling. These include the use of differential drag rather than propulsion to adjust the spacing between satellites and the use of existing GPS signals as the science radars' transmitter. Initial on-orbit results demonstrate the scientific utility of the CYGNSS observations, and suggest that a new paradigm in spaceborne Earth environmental monitoring is possible.

Space weather describes the way in which the Sun, and conditions in space more generally, impact human activity and technology both in space and on the ground. It is now well understood that space weather represents a significant threat to infrastructure resilience, and is a source of risk that is wide-ranging in its impact and the pathways by which this impact may occur. Although space weather is growing rapidly as a field, work rigorously assessing the overall economic cost of space weather appears to be in its infancy. Here, we provide an initial literature review to gather and assess the quality of any published assessments of space weather impacts and socioeconomic studies. Generally speaking, there is a good volume of scientific peer-reviewed literature detailing the likelihood and statistics of different types of space weather phenomena. These phenomena all typically exhibit "power-law" behavior in their severity. The literature on documented impacts is not as extensive, with many case studies, but few statistical studies. The literature on the economic impacts of space weather is rather sparse and not as well developed when compared to the other sections, most probably due to the somewhat limited data that are available from end-users. The major risk is attached to power distribution systems and there is disagreement as to the severity of the technological footprint. This strongly controls the economic impact. Consequently, urgent work is required to better quantify the risk of future space weather events.

The performance of a novel neutralizer for space applications based on a E × B discharge is presented. Preliminary tests were carried out with argon gas and flow rates in the range of 5-10 SCCM. Electrons were extracted through an orifice of diameter 1.8 mm. The maximum extracted current versus input power reported was 2.4 mA/W. The total power input, given by the sum of discharge power plus the extraction power, was in the range of 40-90 W. During extraction tests, the discharge current was limited at 0.2 A due to limit in the cooling system. Future work will be focused on tests at various extraction orifice diameters and cathode materials. Ultimately, xenon and non-conventional gases would be tested as working gases.

Abstract In this study, we use measurements from over 4,735 globally distributed Global Navigation Satellite System receivers to track the progression of traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) associated with the 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcanic eruption. We identify two distinct Large Scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs) and several subsequent Medium Scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) that propagate radially outward from the eruption site. Within 3,000 km of epicenter, LSTIDs of >1,600 km wavelengths are initially observed propagating at speeds of ∼950 and ∼555 ms −1 , before substantial slowing to ∼600 and ∼390 ms −1 , respectively. MSTIDs with speeds of 200–400 ms −1 are observed for 6 hrs following eruption, the first of which comprises the dominant global ionospheric response and coincides with the atmospheric surface pressure disturbance associated with the eruption. These are the first results demonstrating the global impact of the Tonga eruption on the ionospheric state.

We report high-resolution spectroscopy of 125 field stars previously observed as part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and its program for Galactic studies, the Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration (SEGUE). These spectra are used to measure radial velocities and to derive atmospheric parameters, which we compare with those reported by the SEGUE Stellar Parameter Pipeline (SSPP). The SSPP obtains estimates of these quantities based on SDSS ugriz photometry and low-resolution (R similar to 2000) spectroscopy. For F- and G-type stars observed with high signal-to-noise ratios (S/Ns), we empirically determine the typical random uncertainties in the radial velocities, effective temperatures, surface gravities, and metallicities delivered by the SSPP to be 2.4 km s(-1), 130 K (2.2%), 0.21 dex, and 0.11 dex, respectively, with systematic uncertainties of a similar magnitude in the effective temperatures and metallicities. We estimate random errors for lower S/N based on numerical simulations.

The Sun continuously expels a huge amount of ionized material into interplanetary space as the solar wind. Despite its influence on the heliospheric environment, the origin of the solar wind has yet to be well identified. In this paper, we report Hinode X-ray Telescope observations of a solar active region. At the edge of the active region, located adjacent to a coronal hole, a pattern of continuous outflow of soft-x-ray-emitting plasmas was identified emanating along apparently open magnetic field lines and into the upper corona. Estimates of temperature and density for the outflowing plasmas suggest a mass loss rate that amounts to approximately 1/4 of the total mass loss rate of the solar wind. These outflows may be indicative of one of the solar wind sources at the Sun.

Abstract Tailoring the electromagnetic responses by metasurface greatly expands one's capabilities to manipulate light in a controlled manner. Either amplitude or phase of the incident wave can be altered during the light–matter interaction, and thus opens the possibility of information modulation without conventional analog or digital circuits. A prototype of quadrature phase‐shift keying (QPSK) wireless communication based on time‐domain digital coding metasurface, whose reflection properties can be varied within different time slots by changing the biasing voltages of varactor diodes in specially designed meta‐atoms, is developed here. As the information is transformed into binary bit streams and mapped to pulse sequences of the biasing voltage, the baseband digital signal is directly modulated to the carrier wave through the digital coding metasurface. Compared to the earlier version of binary frequency‐shift keying architecture based on digital coding metasurface, the proposed QPSK system has a much higher data‐transmission rate for wireless communications. A proof‐of‐concept experiment is conducted to prove the real‐time transmission ability of this system, where a video is delivered between the transmitter and receiver with high accuracy and date rate. The presented work is promising in the development of next‐generation wireless communication technologies.

We present plasma wave and particle data from the CRRES satellite during three case studies to investigate the viability of a local stochastic electron acceleration mechanism to relativistic energies driven by resonant interactions with whistler mode chorus. We first consider a strong geomagnetic storm that contains prolonged substorm activity during its 3‐day recovery phase. The recovery phase is characterized by electron injections at subrelativistic energies, enhanced whistler mode chorus amplitudes, and a gradual increase in the flux of relativistic electrons ( E > 1 MeV) over the entire outer zone, with fluxes exceeding the prestorm level by an order of magnitude in the region 3.5 < L < 4.5. We next consider a strong geomagnetic storm that contains very little substorm activity during its 3‐day recovery phase. Here the recovery phase is characterized by a lack of sustained electron injections at subrelativistic energies, a low level of chorus amplitudes, and a net reduction in the flux of relativistic electrons in the outer zone. Finally, we examine a period of prolonged substorm activity in the absence of a significant storm signature, as measured by Dst . This period is characterized by electron injections at subrelativistic energies, enhanced chorus amplitudes, and a gradual increase in the flux of relativistic electrons in the region 4 < L < 6.5. These results suggest that the gradual acceleration of electrons to relativistic energies seen on a timescale of days during geomagnetic storms can be effective only when there are periods of prolonged substorm activity following the main phase of the geomagnetic storm. Furthermore, gradual electron acceleration to relativistic energies can be obtained during periods of prolonged substorm activity in the absence of a significant storm signature as indicated by Dst . The case studies show that the acceleration mechanism is confined to the region outside of the plasmapause and occurs in the presence of enhanced chorus waves. These results suggest that a local acceleration mechanism involving the energization of a seed population of electrons with energies of the order of a few hundred keV to relativistic energies by wave‐particle interactions involving whistler mode chorus contributes to the reformation of the relativistic outer zone population following prolonged substorm activity.

Abstract Atmospheric conditions affect the release of anemophilous pollen, and the timing and magnitude will be altered by climate change. As simulated with a pollen emission model and future climate data, warmer end-of-century temperatures (4–6 K) shift the start of spring emissions 10–40 days earlier and summer/fall weeds and grasses 5–15 days later and lengthen the season duration. Phenological shifts depend on the temperature response of individual taxa, with convergence in some regions and divergence in others. Temperature and precipitation alter daily pollen emission maxima by −35 to 40% and increase the annual total pollen emission by 16–40% due to changes in phenology and temperature-driven pollen production. Increasing atmospheric CO 2 may increase pollen production, and doubling production in conjunction with climate increases end-of-century emissions up to 200%. Land cover change modifies the distribution of pollen emitters, yet the effects are relatively small (<10%) compared to climate or CO 2 . These simulations indicate that increasing pollen and longer seasons will increase the likelihood of seasonal allergies.