Department of the Treasury

This paper examines the effect of antecedents (such as task exceptions and task analysability) and consequences (such as job-relevant information, budget goal level, budget goal acceptance and budget goal commitment) of budgetary participation on job performance. The responses of 135 middle-level managers, drawn from a cross- section of manufacturing firms, to a survey questionnaire, were analysed by using a structural equation modelling (SEM) technique. The results of this study suggest that task exceptions and task analysability are important antecedents of budgetary participation. The results further suggest that the cognitive effect of participation in goal- setting allows subordinates to gather, exchange and share job-relevant information. The availability of job-relevant information allows subordinates to develop effective strategies or plans, which will help them to exert effort over time, in an attempt to attain their goals. The results support the proposition that setting difficult but attainable budget goals increases subordinates? budget goal level, acceptance, and commitment to the budget goal, which in turn improves job performance.

The epizootiology of ephemeral fever in Australia from its first recognition until 1968 was reviewed. Since 1968, ephemeral fever often in a silent form has been shown to be enzootic in northern Australia, by the use of sentinel cattle. The major epizootics which occured in 1970-1971, 1972-1974 and 1974-1975 are described. These epizootics were characterised by an apparently rapid movement of disease in a general north-south direction in summer months. Ephemeral fever antibody was detected in 11% of 1009 domesticated and feral water buffaloes.

Break crops (e.g. pulses, lupins, canola, oats) underpin the continued profitability of cereal (wheat or barley) based cropping sequences. The area sown on farms to break crops varies widely across geographical regions according to climate, soil type mix, enterprise mix (crop v. livestock), and other constraints such as the prevalence of soil-borne disease. Given recent fluctuations in the area of established break crops in Western Australia, there are concerns about their long-term prospects in the farming system. A survey of the area and grain yield of break crops on-farm was combined with whole-farm bio-economic modelling to determine the upper limit to the area of break crops on representative farms in 4 agro-climatic regions. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to ascertain the potential effects of varying commodity prices (sheep and grain), costs of production, and assumptions on the yield of break crops and the boost to the yield of following cereals. The survey revealed that the two dominant break crops, lupins and canola, occupied 8–12% and 8–9%, respectively, of farm area on those farms that grew them in the medium-rainfall zone and this declined to 6–8% and 7–10% in the drier region. Nevertheless, the modelling results show that break crops are an important component of the farming system, even where the area is small, and the response of whole-farm profit to percent of the farm allocated to break crops is relatively flat near the optimum of 23–38%. The modelled area of break crops at maximum profit is higher than that found in farm surveys. The discrepancy could possibly be explained by the lower break crop yields realised by farmers and a reduced boost to cereal yields following break crops than assumed in models. Also, deterministic models do not account for risk, which is an important consideration in the decision to grow break crops. However, the yield difference does not explain the discrepancy entirely and raises questions about farmer motivations for adoption of break crops. The scope for increased area of break crops beyond 23–38% of the farm is limited, even with increases in the yield enhancements in subsequent cereal crops, higher break crop prices, and higher fertiliser costs. Further research is required to better quantify costs and benefits of break crops in Western Australian farming systems.

As in all the other major economies, China's macroeconomic policy framework was put to the test during the global financial crisis. China applied one of the world's largest stimulus packages. The package provided a very rapid boost to activity in the Chinese economy, with empirical evidence suggesting the package added around 2–3 per cent to the level of GDP in both 2009 and 2010. The stimulus package was clearly a success for China, but there are challenges in unwinding the effects of the stimulus and addressing structural imbalances. Pressures to rebalance Chinese growth and integrate China further into global capital markets will necessitate changes in China's macroeconomic policy framework.

This study employs the cointegrating VAR approach to characterise the relationships between the five exchange rates comprising the TWI and the share market in New Zealand. Weekly data covering January 1999 to June 2006 are analysed. The study discovers there are two types of long‐run relationship mimicking the portfolio balance and goods market theories. That implies there is bi‐directional causality in the foreign exchange and stock markets in both the short run and long run although different exchange rates may be implicated. In the long run, the empirical results for the relationship between the NZ‐US dollar exchange rate and the overall share market index support both the portfolio balance and goods market theories. In the short run, the portfolio balance theory is further supported by all the exchange rates but the goods market theory is supported significantly only by the NZ‐Australian dollar exchange rate. Thus the evidence is predominantly in support of the portfolio balance theory and that the firms most at risk of foreign exchange rate exposure are those that export to Australia.

Rural populations in Australia are in decline and rural farm businesses now endure chronic labour shortages. Livestock enterprises traditionally require more labour than their cropping counterparts and this threatens future increases in their intensity and scale. The influence that labour scarcity has on the profitability of mixed-farming systems in the Central Wheatbelt of Western Australia is investigated in this study. When labour supply is assumed to be non-limiting, perennial plants are profitable where their out-of-season production sustains a sizeable breeding flock in a prime-lamb enterprise. However, when labour supply is limited and labour demand is defined as a function of enterprise mix, cropping activity increases and livestock production decreases. In addition, the proportion of the farm planted with perennial pasture declines. This has implications for natural resource management, with perennial pasture helping to prevent soil erosion, decrease waterlogging, and reduce recharge to saline watertables. Efforts to improve the labour efficiency of livestock production are therefore highly pertinent if perennial pastures are to offset land degradation on a broader scale.

This paper examines the evolution of Australian fiscal policy and the fiscal policy framework over the past quartercentury. Following the early 1980s recession, a sustained fiscal consolidation saw the general government budget balance (for all levels of government) move from a deficit of 3½ per cent of GDP in 1983/4 to a surplus of 1¾ per cent 5 years later in 1988/9. A severe recession in the early 1990s interrupted this process, and the budget returned to sizeable deficits which peaked at 4¾ per cent of GDP in 1992/3. The second half of the 1990s saw a repeat of the experience a decade earlier, with the budget returning to surplus in 1997/8. In contrast to the 1980s experience, however, the general government sector (for all levels of government) has recorded surpluses for the subsequent 8 years to the present. The paper outlines Australia's macroeconomic experience over this time and argues that there have been two significant medium-term factors motivating the extended periods of fiscal consolidation. The first factor, relevant since the mid-1980s, has been the large Australian current-account deficits since that time, and the associated build-up of net foreign liabilities. The second factor, which entered the public debate more recently, is a desire to provide fiscal policy flexibility to respond to the ageing of the population and the projected rising public cost of health services—both influences that are likely to be of increasing importance over the next generation or so. The paper discusses the introduction and evolution of Australia's medium-term fiscal framework which has been put in place to respond to these challenges.

David Tunley; Grimarest's Traité du Récitatif: Glimpses of performance practise in Lully's operas, Early Music, Volume XV, Issue 3, 1 August 1987, Pages 361–364

We examined the extent to which verbenone, a bark beetle antiaggregation pheromone, interrupted the semiochemical-based attraction of ambrosia beetles. Field trapping studies conducted in Ohio showed that a verbenone dispenser with a release rate of 50 mg/d at 25°C reduced the attraction of Anisandrus sayi Hopkins, Euwallacea validus (Eichhoff), Hypothenemus dissimilis (Zimmermann), Xylosandrus germanus (Blandford), and Xyleborinus saxesenii (Ratzeburg) to ethanol-baited traps. A verbenone dispenser attached to ethanol-injected Magnolia virginiana L. trap trees deployed in Ohio also reduced ambrosia beetle attacks compared to trap trees without a verbenone dispenser. Subsequent field trials demonstrated a direct relationship between distance from a verbenone dispenser and ambrosia beetle attacks on trap trees in Ohio in 2011 and 2012 and Tennessee in 2012, but not in Tennessee and Virginia in 2011. Assessment of the influence of verbenone on the probability of attacks above a density threshold found that although attacks occurred on trap trees regardless of their proximity to a verbenone dispenser, the higher density of attacks per tree occurred on trap trees farthest away from the verbenone source in Ohio and Tennessee. Verbenone alone could be somewhat useful for discouraging ambrosia beetle attacks on individual trees or on a small spatial scale, but deployment of verbenone might be most effective when integrated as part of a "push-pull" strategy.

Governments around Australia and internationally have come to recognise that both public and private sectors have roles to play in building modern public infrastructure. Governments are increasingly turning to mechanisms known as public‐private partnerships (PPPs) or the private finance initiative (PFI). 1 The nature of PPPs and the reasons governments use them have evolved over the past 20 years and are continuing to do so. This article describes the evolution of PPPs in Victoria since the late 1980s, the accounting treatment of PPPs and future developments.

This paper considers the problem of pricing American options when the dynamics of the underlying are driven by both stochastic volatility following a square-root process as used by Heston [Rev. Financial Stud., 1993, 6, 327–343], and by a Poisson jump process as introduced by Merton [J. Financial Econ., 1976, 3, 125–144]. Probability arguments are invoked to find a representation of the solution in terms of expectations over the joint distribution of the underlying process. A combination of Fourier transform in the log stock price and Laplace transform in the volatility is then applied to find the transition probability density function of the underlying process. It turns out that the price is given by an integral dependent upon the early exercise surface, for which a corresponding integral equation is obtained. The solution generalizes in an intuitive way the structure of the solution to the corresponding European option pricing problem obtained by Scott [Math. Finance, 1997, 7(4), 413–426], but here in the case of a call option and constant interest rates.

Livestock production in Western Australian mixed-farming systems has traditionally been constrained by a profound scarcity of feed in autumn–early winter when crop stubbles and pasture residues from the previous growing season have been exhausted. This study investigates the profitability of partially filling this ‘feed gap’ through the grazing of vegetative wheat crops. Whole-farm bioeconomic modelling is used to provide insight into the relative value of grazing and grain production in both low- and high-rainfall areas of Western Australia. Dual-purpose wheat crops are a valuable source of feed in high-rainfall areas as they provide an affordable alternative to expensive grain supplements for a short period in winter. This also allows annual pastures to establish more vigorously by reducing grazing pressure on young plants. Model output suggests farm profit can increase by over 10% with the grazing of vegetative wheat crops in high-rainfall regions; however, these results are logically shown to be strongly related to the assumed rate of yield loss. In contrast, at the parameter values used in this study, grazing wheats are unlikely to be profitable in low-rainfall environments due to depressed crop production and the extended feed gap experienced in these areas. Higher grain prices unequivocally lower the relative advantage of grazing activity since this elevates the cost of foregone grain yield.

Unemployment differentials are bigger in Europe than in the United States. Migration responds to unemployment differentials, though the response is smaller in Europe. We use a multi-country DSGE model with cross-border migration and search frictions to quantify the benefits of increased labor mobility in Europe and compare this outcome to a case of fully flexible exchange rates. Labor mobility and flexible exchange rates both work to reduce unemployment and per capita GDP differentials across countries provided that monetary policy is sufficiently responsive to national output.

Abstract During the early stages of the COVID‐19 pandemic in 2020 the Australian federal government temporarily expanded the level of cash relief available to the working‐age population through supplemental benefit payments, a wage subsidy and allowing lump sum withdrawals from private pensions. Here we examine the scope and direct distributional consequences of these measures. Two in five working‐age Australians received at least one of these three forms of transfer over a 12‐month window. The median recipient had close to half their pre‐COVID‐19 income ‘replaced’ by transfers. The programs interacted to create a two‐tier welfare safety net that put in place a poverty‐alleviating income floor for workers in low‐earning occupations and those on unemployment benefits, and provided job certainty and greater direct income support to those with higher incomes. Aggregate weekly incomes were higher during the initial period of COVID‐19 than they were pre‐COVID‐19. Descriptive exercises, such as this, do not provide information about the ‘impact’ of pandemic policies and are limited to what they directly measure. That noted, we raise an important question for decision‐makers facing future shocks: at what point is there ‘too much of a good thing’ with crisis cash transfers?

Abstract This paper uses 15‐minute exchange rate returns data for the six most liquid currencies (i.e., the Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc) vis‐à‐vis the United States dollar to examine whether a GARCH model augmented with higher moments (HM‐GARCH) performs better than a traditional GARCH (TG) model. Two findings are unraveled. First, the inclusion of odd/even moments in modeling the return/variance improves the statistical performance of the HM‐GARCH model. Second, trading strategies that extract buy and sell trading signals based on exchange rate forecasts from HM‐GARCH models are more profitable than those that depend on TG models.

There are conflicting tendencies among recent developments in bargaining and participation at the workplace level in Europe. While there is an emphasis on decentralisation of bargaining structures in many countries, there is considerable variance. Similarly, there is a diversity of approaches to both direct and indirect forms of participation. Despite attempts by the European Community to integrate policies on these matters among member countries, external influences such as the globalisation of economies and technologies are leading to diverse outcomes.

The health consequences of kava abuse in Arnhem Land Aboriginal populations in the Northern Territory (NT) and the persistence of an illegal kava trade with its associated social harms have been a cause for concern for 20 years. Despite these concerns, some Arnhem Land groups seek to continue using kava and to control its sale, distribution and the profits from the enterprise. In response, policy makers in the NT have embraced principles of harm reduction and created regulatory mechanisms to address broader public concerns and to support local management of kava supply while reinforcing control over the consequences of its use. This paper describes the kava regulatory system now being implemented in the NT which features kava management plans developed in consultation between Aboriginal communities and licensing authorities. It complements the earlier Harm Reduction Digest 9 by McDonald & Jowitt which looked at Kava in the South Pacific.

This article describes the cost–benefit analysis of mining projects. Following a general introduction, the central part discusses six contentious topics: the community of interest, valuing the environment, second-round effects, market modelling, estimating key mining data and treatment of risks. The penultimate section briefly discusses dealing with some special government requirements. The article concludes that the cost–benefit analysis approach is systematic and comprehensive. Where uncertainty exists, the weights attributed to unquantified impacts should be conceived within a cost–benefit analysis framework, rather than out of the subjective thoughts of decision-makers.

A bstract . Henry George's influence on economic thought has been neglected although his readers included Clark, Marshall, Hobson, Commons, Lerner and Böhm‐Bawerk and his ideas provoked thought and discussion, Clark made clear that George stimulated him to develop his marginal productivity theory. But the 19th century American theorist affected or touched upon the neoclassical concept of capital , the theory of externality , the neoclassical versus the classical concept of monopoly ; the entitlements approach to distributive justice ; the burden of debt and other transfer incomes and capital formation and the theory of expectations. George's influence is wider than generally recognized. The last of the classical economists , he wrote in high Victorian prose about some very modern problems.

The use of longitudinal data from the criminal records of a sample of 6,042 female prisoners in nineteenth- and twentieth-century Victoria reveals limitations in the traditional method of examining criminality within specific offense categories. Investigations devoted exclusively to particular categories of women’s offenses potentially obscures the extent to which women resorted to multiple forms of offending. Such versatile activity challenges conceptions of women as predominantly petty offenders by suggesting that some women were arrested for minor offenses because of their engagement in more serious crimes and their participation in criminal sub-cultures.