George Institute for Global Health

IMPORTANCE: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE: To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEW: The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS: In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

INTRODUCTION: Systematic reviews provide a rigorous synthesis of the best available evidence regarding a certain question. Where high-quality evidence is lacking, systematic reviewers may choose to rely on case series studies to provide information in relation to their question. However, to date there has been limited guidance on how to incorporate case series studies within systematic reviews assessing the effectiveness of an intervention, particularly with reference to assessing the methodological quality or risk of bias of these studies. METHODS: An international working group was formed to review the methodological literature regarding case series as a form of evidence for inclusion in systematic reviews. The group then developed a critical appraisal tool based on the epidemiological literature relating to bias within these studies. This was then piloted, reviewed, and approved by JBI's international Scientific Committee. RESULTS: The JBI critical appraisal tool for case series studies includes 10 questions addressing the internal validity and risk of bias of case series designs, particularly confounding, selection, and information bias, in addition to the importance of clear reporting. CONCLUSION: In certain situations, case series designs may represent the best available evidence to inform clinical practice. The JBI critical appraisal tool for case series offers systematic reviewers an approved method to assess the methodological quality of these studies.

The Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Clinical Practice Guideline for the Management of Glomerular Diseases is an update to the KDIGO 2012 guideline. The aim is to assist clinicians caring for individuals with glomerulonephritis (GN), both adults and children. The scope includes various glomerular diseases, including IgA nephropathy and IgA vasculitis, membranous nephropathy, nephrotic syndrome, minimal change disease (MCD), focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), infection-related GN, antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) vasculitis, lupus nephritis, and anti-glomerular basement membrane antibody GN. In addition, this guideline will be the first to address the subtype of complement-mediated diseases. Each chapter follows the same format providing guidance related to diagnosis, prognosis, treatment, and special situations. The goal of the guideline is to generate a useful resource for clinicians and patients by providing actionable recommendations based on evidence syntheses, with useful infographics incorporating views from experts in the field. Another aim is to propose research recommendations for areas where there are gaps in knowledge. The guideline targets a broad global audience of clinicians treating GN while being mindful of implications for policy and cost. Development of this guideline update followed an explicit process whereby treatment approaches and guideline recommendations are based on systematic reviews of relevant studies, and appraisal of the quality of the evidence and the strength of recommendations followed the "Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation" (GRADE) approach. Limitations of the evidence are discussed, with areas of future research also presented.

Novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a newly discovered contagious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)–coronavirus (CoV)-2 virus, primarily manifesting as an acute respiratory illness with interstitial and alveolar pneumonia, but it can affect multiple organs such as the kidney, heart, digestive tract, blood, and nervous system.1 The rapidly spreading outbreak, which first emerged in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019, has since been declared a global pandemic.

BACKGROUND: One potential solution to limited healthcare access in low and middle income countries (LMIC) is task-shifting- the training of non-physician healthcare workers (NPHWs) to perform tasks traditionally undertaken by physicians. The aim of this paper is to conduct a systematic review of studies involving task-shifting for the management of non-communicable disease (NCD) in LMIC. METHODS: A search strategy with the following terms "task-shifting", "non-physician healthcare workers", "community healthcare worker", "hypertension", "diabetes", "cardiovascular disease", "mental health", "depression", "chronic obstructive pulmonary disease", "respiratory disease", "cancer" was conducted using Medline via Pubmed and the Cochrane library. Two reviewers independently reviewed the databases and extracted the data. FINDINGS: Our search generated 7176 articles of which 22 were included in the review. Seven studies were randomised controlled trials and 15 were observational studies. Tasks performed by NPHWs included screening for NCDs and providing primary health care. The majority of studies showed improved health outcomes when compared with usual healthcare, including reductions in blood pressure, increased uptake of medications and lower depression scores. Factors such as training of NPHWs, provision of algorithms and protocols for screening, treatment and drug titration were the main enablers of the task-shifting intervention. The main barriers identified were restrictions on prescribing medications and availability of medicines. Only two studies described cost-effective analyses, both of which demonstrated that task-shifting was cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: Task-shifting from physicians to NPHWs, if accompanied by health system re-structuring is a potentially effective and affordable strategy for improving access to healthcare for NCDs. Since the majority of study designs reviewed were of inadequate quality, future research methods should include robust evaluations of such strategies.

Haemodialysis (HD) is the commonest form of kidney replacement therapy in the world, accounting for approximately 69% of all kidney replacement therapy and 89% of all dialysis. Over the last six decades since the inception of HD, dialysis technology and patient access to the therapy have advanced considerably, particularly in high-income countries. However, HD availability, accessibility, cost and outcomes vary widely across the world and, overall, the rates of impaired quality of life, morbidity and mortality are high. Cardiovascular disease affects more than two-thirds of people receiving HD, is the major cause of morbidity and accounts for almost 50% of mortality. In addition, patients on HD have high symptom loads and are often under considerable financial strain. Despite the many advances in HD technology and delivery systems that have been achieved since the treatment was first developed, poor outcomes among patients receiving HD remain a major public health concern. Understanding the epidemiology of HD outcomes, why they might vary across different populations and how they might be improved is therefore crucial, although this goal is hampered by the considerable heterogeneity in the monitoring and reporting of these outcomes across settings. This Review examines the epidemiology of haemodialysis outcomes — clinical, patient-reported and surrogate outcomes — across world regions and populations, including vulnerable individuals. The authors also discuss the current status of monitoring and reporting of haemodialysis outcomes and potential strategies for improvement.

On a world scale the total number of individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD), acute kidney injury (AKI) and those on renal replacement therapy (RRT) exceeds 850 million, a truly concerning figure that is twice the estimated number of people with diabetes worldwide and >20 times higher than the number of individuals affected by acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)/human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) worldwide. Thus kidney diseases are one of the most common diseases worldwide. CKD is now an unquestionable global public priority [1, 2]. Even though the prevalence of CKD and its impact on health has been mainly studied in economically developed countries, the burden of this disease is even greater in developing countries [3, 4]. In 2016, this disease was 13th on the list of causes of death on a world scale [5] and in 2040 it is expected to be the 5th leading cause of years of life lost [6]. In 2010, 2.6 million individuals were receiving some form of kidney replacement therapy worldwide, but an almost equal number might have died during the same year because of a lack of access to dialysis and transplantation [7]. This scenario contrasts with that of other major chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases, whose effects on mortality are declining [8]. In spite of this recent recognition of the adverse impact of CKD on health outcomes, awareness of the magnitude and the risks of this condition remain low at the population level. As a result, kidney disease has been largely overlooked by health authorities and governments in most countries [9]. Even in the USA, a 2016 survey [10] showed that CKD awareness in the community is substantially lower as compared with that of other chronic diseases such as hypertension and diabetes [11]. Kidney diseases cover a wide spectrum of diseases with diverse aetiologies, clinical courses and functional severity, from AKI to the various CKD stages from Stage 1 to Stage 5 and include end-stage kidney disease, which demands chronic dialysis and renal transplantation. Several countries have now produced rich, articulated and very detailed CKD statistics. However, the degree of complexity of these statistics is such that they are not easily used for communication with the public and with decision makers. The differentiation of CKD into stages and the separate consideration of the epidemiology of patients on RRTs (dialysis and transplantation) are fundamental in professional and scientific terms but are too complex to serve as a basis for broad-based communication. AKI, related to basic public health challenges, continues to be an important cause of entirely preventable deaths throughout the developing world. Survivors are at increased risk of developing CKD. Fragmentation of discussion by framing these conditions separately leads to the removal of focus from the importance of the health burden imposed on the society by disruption of normal kidney function. A simplification effort is needed if we are to increase awareness of the extent of the magnitude of kidney diseases on a global scale. Producing a single, absolute number of individuals affected by kidney diseases will effectively convey to the interested parties the large and growing relevance of the problem. Producing simple, immediately understandable statistical figures is fundamental for helping to draw attention to unaddressed public health issues by governments and health authorities and to increase awareness at the community level [12]. The international diabetes community has had significant success in leveraging increased awareness and support by identifying and utilizing a single figure that conveys the global burden of diabetes, a figure that is independent of the type and severity of diabetes [13]. Other examples include depression [14, 15], Alzheimer’s [16] and breast cancer [17]. Thus it is of great importance to have a similar metric to express the burden of kidney diseases across the globe. With this background in mind, the ASN, ERA-EDTA, and ISN in 2017 convened a group charged with producing a simple global estimate of the number of individuals affected by kidney disease, irrespective of aetiology, chronicity, severity or treatment modality. A group of experts representing these societies met twice in face-to-face meetings and held three teleconferences to discuss a pragmatic approach to determining this single number to truly convey the essence of the epidemic facing the global community. The setting date for calculation was the year 2017. In this year, the world population (rounded off to the first decimal) was 7.6 billion [18]. We assumed an equal distribution of the world population between males and females and a homogeneous and stable prevalence of CKD among different parts of the world. The estimate was based on figures reported in the systematic review by Mills et al. [19]. This review collated 33 studies published between 2006 and 2013 reporting gender- and age-specific prevalence of CKD in representative population samples in 32 countries including high income (18 countries) and low and middle income (14 countries). The global prevalence of CKD in this review was 11.1% (10.4% among men and 11.8% among women), which is tantamount to an absolute global number of individuals with CKD of 843.6 million (prevalence × world population, 11.1% × 7.6 billion). To calculate the total number of individuals with AKI worldwide, the estimates made by Lewington et al. [20] were adopted. Since data on AKI in low- and middle-income countries are extremely limited [21], Lewington et al. [20] assumed that the AKI incidence in these countries is the same as that in high-income countries. Overall the resulting figures were 2 million/year in high-income countries and 11.3 million/year in low- and middle-income countries, which translates into a global estimate of 13.3 million cases of AKI/year. Finally, the total number of individuals treated with RRT worldwide (3.9 million) was estimated by data reported in the systematic review by Liyanage et al. [7]. For this calculation, the growth rate of the RRT population was assumed to be equal to that observed in the ERA-EDTA and US (United States Renal Data System) dialysis registries in the years 2010–14, which was 4.5%. Furthermore, it was assumed that the RRT population would grow at the same rate as the world population (i.e. 8.75% between 2010 and 2017). The number of patients on RRT given by Liyanage et al. [7] for 2010 is 2.618 million. A 4.5% growth per year in a stable world population would result in 3.562 million in 2017. Additional correction for the growth of the world population (from 7 to 7.6 billion, i.e. 8.57%) then gives a number of 3.868 million, rounded off to 3.9 million. All in all, the sum of individuals with CKD, AKI and those on RRT (Table 1) gives a figure exceeding 850 million, a truly concerning figure that is twice the estimated number of people with diabetes worldwide (422 million in 2014) [22] and >20 times higher than the number of individuals affected by AIDS/HIV worldwide (36.9 million in 2017) [23]. Thus the data have identified that kidney diseases are one of the most common diseases worldwide. The global dimension of kidney diseases in 2017 The global dimension of kidney diseases in 2017 Even though pragmatic estimates of the global burden of kidney diseases based on a single number have already been made [2], this number rests on data of various qualities and on approximations and demands some assumptions. The three societies plan to update the number on a regular basis, thus allowing monitoring of the global burden of kidney diseases over time. Awareness of the global burden of diseases is a prerequisite for acceptance by the community, policymakers and public health groups that leads to commitment to institution of public health approaches that will improve health outcomes. A joint project by the American Society of Nephrology (ASN), European Renal Association–European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) and International Society of Nephrology (ISN). This article is published simultaneously in NDT and Kidney International. Both versions are identical except for minor stylistic changes depending on each journal’s policy. The authors acknowledge Monica Fontana (ERA-EDTA Executive Manager), who coordinated the project, and Rachel Meyer (ISN) and Tod Ibrahim (ASN), who actively participated in the realization of the same project. K.J.J., C.K. and R.L. made the literature search and set the methodology for calculating the ‘single number’ and finally produced it. C.Z. (ERA-EDTA President) wrote the first draft of the article that was then revised by K.J.J., C.K. and R.L. and by the leadership of the ISN (V.J. and, in particular, Adeera Levin—Past President, who also gave an important contribution in the initial phases of the joint project) and the ASN (M.R. and Mark Okusa, past-President of ASN). All authors approved the final version of the manuscript. None declared.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) causes substantial global morbidity and increases cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Unlike other chronic diseases with established strategies for screening, there has been no consensus on whether health systems and governments should prioritize early identification and intervention for CKD. Guidelines on evaluating and managing early CKD are available but have not been universally adopted in the absence of incentives or quality measures for prioritizing CKD care. The burden of CKD falls disproportionately upon persons with lower socioeconomic status, who have a higher prevalence of CKD, limited access to treatment, and poorer outcomes. Therefore, identifying and treating CKD at the earliest stages is an equity imperative. In 2019, Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) held a controversies conference entitled "Early Identification and Intervention in CKD." Participants identified strategies for screening, risk stratification, and treatment for early CKD and the key health system and economic factors for implementing these processes. A consensus emerged that CKD screening coupled with risk stratification and treatment should be implemented immediately for high-risk persons and that this should ideally occur in primary or community care settings with tailoring to the local context.

BACKGROUND: For more than three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has provided a framework to quantify health loss due to diseases, injuries, and associated risk factors. This paper presents GBD 2023 findings on disease and injury burden and risk-attributable health loss, offering a global audit of the state of world health to inform public health priorities. This work captures the evolving landscape of health metrics across age groups, sexes, and locations, while reflecting on the remaining post-COVID-19 challenges to achieving our collective global health ambitions. METHODS: The GBD 2023 combined analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 375 diseases and injuries, and risk-attributable burden associated with 88 modifiable risk factors. Of the more than 310 000 total data sources used for all GBD 2023 (about 30% of which were new to this estimation round), more than 120 000 sources were used for estimation of disease and injury burden and 59 000 for risk factor estimation, and included vital registration systems, surveys, disease registries, and published scientific literature. Data were analysed using previously established modelling approaches, such as disease modelling meta-regression version 2.1 (DisMod-MR 2.1) and comparative risk assessment methods. Diseases and injuries were categorised into four levels on the basis of the established GBD cause hierarchy, as were risk factors using the GBD risk hierarchy. Estimates stratified by age, sex, location, and year from 1990 to 2023 were focused on disease-specific time trends over the 2010-23 period and presented as counts (to three significant figures) and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years (to one decimal place). For each measure, 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs] were calculated with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile ordered values from a 250-draw distribution. FINDINGS: Total numbers of global DALYs grew 6·1% (95% UI 4·0-8·1), from 2·64 billion (2·46-2·86) in 2010 to 2·80 billion (2·57-3·08) in 2023, but age-standardised DALY rates, which account for population growth and ageing, decreased by 12·6% (11·0-14·1), revealing large long-term health improvements. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) contributed 1·45 billion (1·31-1·61) global DALYs in 2010, increasing to 1·80 billion (1·63-2·03) in 2023, alongside a concurrent 4·1% (1·9-6·3) reduction in age-standardised rates. Based on DALY counts, the leading level 3 NCDs in 2023 were ischaemic heart disease (193 million [176-209] DALYs), stroke (157 million [141-172]), and diabetes (90·2 million [75·2-107]), with the largest increases in age-standardised rates since 2010 occurring for anxiety disorders (62·8% [34·0-107·5]), depressive disorders (26·3% [11·6-42·9]), and diabetes (14·9% [7·5-25·6]). Remarkable health gains were made for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases, with DALYs falling from 874 million (837-917) in 2010 to 681 million (642-736) in 2023, and a 25·8% (22·6-28·7) reduction in age-standardised DALY rates. During the COVID-19 pandemic, DALYs due to CMNN diseases rose but returned to pre-pandemic levels by 2023. From 2010 to 2023, decreases in age-standardised rates for CMNN diseases were led by rate decreases of 49·1% (32·7-61·0) for diarrhoeal diseases, 42·9% (38·0-48·0) for HIV/AIDS, and 42·2% (23·6-56·6) for tuberculosis. Neonatal disorders and lower respiratory infections remained the leading level 3 CMNN causes globally in 2023, although both showed notable rate decreases from 2010, declining by 16·5% (10·6-22·0) and 24·8% (7·4-36·7), respectively. Injury-related age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 15·6% (10·7-19·8) over the same period. Differences in burden due to NCDs, CMNN diseases, and injuries persisted across age, sex, time, and location. Based on our risk analysis, nearly 50% (1·27 billion [1·18-1·38]) of the roughly 2·80 billion total global DALYs in 2023 were attributable to the 88 risk factors analysed in GBD. Globally, the five level 3 risk factors contributing the highest proportion of risk-attributable DALYs were high systolic blood pressure (SBP), particulate matter pollution, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), smoking, and low birthweight and short gestation-with high SBP accounting for 8·4% (6·9-10·0) of total DALYs. Of the three overarching level 1 GBD risk factor categories-behavioural, metabolic, and environmental and occupational-risk-attributable DALYs rose between 2010 and 2023 only for metabolic risks, increasing by 30·7% (24·8-37·3); however, age-standardised DALY rates attributable to metabolic risks decreased by 6·7% (2·0-11·0) over the same period. For all but three of the 25 leading level 3 risk factors, age-standardised rates dropped between 2010 and 2023-eg, declining by 54·4% (38·7-65·3) for unsafe sanitation, 50·5% (33·3-63·1) for unsafe water source, and 45·2% (25·6-72·0) for no access to handwashing facility, and by 44·9% (37·3-53·5) for child growth failure. The three leading level 3 risk factors for which age-standardised attributable DALY rates rose were high BMI (10·5% [0·1 to 20·9]), drug use (8·4% [2·6 to 15·3]), and high FPG (6·2% [-2·7 to 15·6]; non-significant). INTERPRETATION: Our findings underscore the complex and dynamic nature of global health challenges. Since 2010, there have been large decreases in burden due to CMNN diseases and many environmental and behavioural risk factors, juxtaposed with sizeable increases in DALYs attributable to metabolic risk factors and NCDs in growing and ageing populations. This long-observed consequence of the global epidemiological transition was only temporarily interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The substantially decreasing CMNN disease burden, despite the 2008 global financial crisis and pandemic-related disruptions, is one of the greatest collective public health successes known. However, these achievements are at risk of being reversed due to major cuts to development assistance for health globally, the effects of which will hit low-income countries with high burden the hardest. Without sustained investment in evidence-based interventions and policies, progress could stall or reverse, leading to widespread human costs and geopolitical instability. Moreover, the rising NCD burden necessitates intensified efforts to mitigate exposure to leading risk factors-eg, air pollution, smoking, and metabolic risks, such as high SBP, BMI, and FPG-including policies that promote food security, healthier diets, physical activity, and equitable and expanded access to potential treatments, such as GLP-1 receptor agonists. Decisive, coordinated action is needed to address long-standing yet growing health challenges, including depressive and anxiety disorders. Yet this can be only part of the solution. Our response to the NCD syndemic-the complex interaction of multiple health risks, social determinants, and systemic challenges-will define the future landscape of global health. To ensure human wellbeing, economic stability, and social equity, global action to sustain and advance health gains must prioritise reducing disparities by addressing socioeconomic and demographic determinants, ensuring equitable health-care access, tackling malnutrition, strengthening health systems, and improving vaccination coverage. We live in times of great opportunity. FUNDING: Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Importance: Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health. Objective: To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion. Evidence Review: Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss. Findings: Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3% (95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries. Conclusions and Relevance: Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.

BACKGROUND: Timely and comprehensive analyses of causes of death stratified by age, sex, and location are essential for shaping effective health policies aimed at reducing global mortality. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 provides cause-specific mortality estimates measured in counts, rates, and years of life lost (YLLs). GBD 2023 aimed to enhance our understanding of the relationship between age and cause of death by quantifying the probability of dying before age 70 years (70q0) and the mean age at death by cause and sex. This study enables comparisons of the impact of causes of death over time, offering a deeper understanding of how these causes affect global populations. METHODS: GBD 2023 produced estimates for 292 causes of death disaggregated by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2023. We used a modelling tool developed for GBD, the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to estimate cause-specific death rates for most causes. We computed YLLs as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. Probability of death was calculated as the chance of dying from a given cause in a specific age period, for a specific population. Mean age at death was calculated by first assigning the midpoint age of each age group for every death, followed by computing the mean of all midpoint ages across all deaths attributed to a given cause. We used GBD death estimates to calculate the observed mean age at death and to model the expected mean age across causes, sexes, years, and locations. The expected mean age reflects the expected mean age at death for individuals within a population, based on global mortality rates and the population's age structure. Comparatively, the observed mean age represents the actual mean age at death, influenced by all factors unique to a location-specific population, including its age structure. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 250-draw distribution for each metric. Findings are reported as counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2023 include a correction for the misclassification of deaths due to COVID-19, updates to the method used to estimate COVID-19, and updates to the CODEm modelling framework. This analysis used 55 761 data sources, including vital registration and verbal autopsy data as well as data from surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. For GBD 2023, there were 312 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 3 country-years of surveillance data, 51 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 144 country-years of other data types that were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS: The initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic caused shifts in long-standing rankings of the leading causes of global deaths: it ranked as the number one age-standardised cause of death at Level 3 of the GBD cause classification hierarchy in 2021. By 2023, COVID-19 dropped to the 20th place among the leading global causes, returning the rankings of the leading two causes to those typical across the time series (ie, ischaemic heart disease and stroke). While ischaemic heart disease and stroke persist as leading causes of death, there has been progress in reducing their age-standardised mortality rates globally. Four other leading causes have also shown large declines in global age-standardised mortality rates across the study period: diarrhoeal diseases, tuberculosis, stomach cancer, and measles. Other causes of death showed disparate patterns between sexes, notably for deaths from conflict and terrorism in some locations. A large reduction in age-standardised rates of YLLs occurred for neonatal disorders. Despite this, neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of global YLLs over the period studied, except in 2021, when COVID-19 was temporarily the leading cause. Compared to 1990, there has been a considerable reduction in total YLLs in many vaccine-preventable diseases, most notably diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, and measles. In addition, this study quantified the mean age at death for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality and found noticeable variation by sex and location. The global all-cause mean age at death increased from 46·8 years (95% UI 46·6-47·0) in 1990 to 63·4 years (63·1-63·7) in 2023. For males, mean age increased from 45·4 years (45·1-45·7) to 61·2 years (60·7-61·6), and for females it increased from 48·5 years (48·1-48·8) to 65·9 years (65·5-66·3), from 1990 to 2023. The highest all-cause mean age at death in 2023 was found in the high-income super-region, where the mean age for females reached 80·9 years (80·9-81·0) and for males 74·8 years (74·8-74·9). By comparison, the lowest all-cause mean age at death occurred in sub-Saharan Africa, where it was 38·0 years (37·5-38·4) for females and 35·6 years (35·2-35·9) for males in 2023. Lastly, our study found that all-cause 70q0 decreased across each GBD super-region and region from 2000 to 2023, although with large variability between them. For females, we found that 70q0 notably increased from drug use disorders and conflict and terrorism. Leading causes that increased 70q0 for males also included drug use disorders, as well as diabetes. In sub-Saharan Africa, there was an increase in 70q0 for many non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Additionally, the mean age at death from NCDs was lower than the expected mean age at death for this super-region. By comparison, there was an increase in 70q0 for drug use disorders in the high-income super-region, which also had an observed mean age at death lower than the expected value. INTERPRETATION: We examined global mortality patterns over the past three decades, highlighting-with enhanced estimation methods-the impacts of major events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to broader trends such as increasing NCDs in low-income regions that reflect ongoing shifts in the global epidemiological transition. This study also delves into premature mortality patterns, exploring the interplay between age and causes of death and deepening our understanding of where targeted resources could be applied to further reduce preventable sources of mortality. We provide essential insights into global and regional health disparities, identifying locations in need of targeted interventions to address both communicable and non-communicable diseases. There is an ever-present need for strengthened health-care systems that are resilient to future pandemics and the shifting burden of disease, particularly among ageing populations in regions with high mortality rates. Robust estimates of causes of death are increasingly essential to inform health priorities and guide efforts toward achieving global health equity. The need for global collaboration to reduce preventable mortality is more important than ever, as shifting burdens of disease are affecting all nations, albeit at different paces and scales. FUNDING: Gates Foundation.

Importance: Chronic kidney disease (low estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] or albuminuria) affects approximately 14% of adults in the US. Objective: To evaluate associations of lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine combined with cystatin C, and more severe albuminuria with adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular outcomes, and other health outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-participant data meta-analysis of 27 503 140 individuals from 114 global cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine alone) and 720 736 individuals from 20 cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C) and 9 067 753 individuals from 114 cohorts (albuminuria) from 1980 to 2021. Exposures: The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration 2021 equations for eGFR based on creatinine alone and eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C; and albuminuria estimated as urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR). Main Outcomes and Measures: The risk of kidney failure requiring replacement therapy, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, acute kidney injury, any hospitalization, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and peripheral artery disease. The analyses were performed within each cohort and summarized with random-effects meta-analyses. Results: Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine alone (mean age, 54 years [SD, 17 years]; 51% were women; mean follow-up time, 4.8 years [SD, 3.3 years]), the mean eGFR was 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 11 mg/g (IQR, 8-16 mg/g). Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C (mean age, 59 years [SD, 12 years]; 53% were women; mean follow-up time, 10.8 years [SD, 4.1 years]), the mean eGFR was 88 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 9 mg/g (IQR, 6-18 mg/g). Lower eGFR (whether based on creatinine alone or based on creatinine and cystatin C) and higher UACR were each significantly associated with higher risk for each of the 10 adverse outcomes, including those in the mildest categories of chronic kidney disease. For example, among people with a UACR less than 10 mg/g, an eGFR of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m2 based on creatinine alone was associated with significantly higher hospitalization rates compared with an eGFR of 90 to 104 mL/min/1.73 m2 (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.2-1.3]; 161 vs 79 events per 1000 person-years; excess absolute risk, 22 events per 1000 person-years [95% CI, 19-25 events per 1000 person-years]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective analysis of 114 cohorts, lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C, and more severe UACR were each associated with increased rates of 10 adverse outcomes, including adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular diseases, and hospitalizations.

Introduction The burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is growing rapidly around the world. However, there is limited information on the overall regional prevalence of CKD, as well as the variations in national prevalence within Asia. We aimed to consolidate available data and quantify estimates of the CKD burden in this region. Methods We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase and Google Scholar for observational studies and contacted national experts to estimate CKD prevalence in countries of Asia (Eastern, Southern and South Eastern Asia). CKD was defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 or the presence of proteinuria. For countries without reported data, we estimated CKD prevalence using agglomerative average-linkage hierarchical clustering, based on country-level risk factors and random effects meta-analysis within clusters. Published CKD prevalence data were obtained for 16 countries (of the 26 countries in the region) and estimates were made for 10 countries. Results There was substantial variation in overall and advanced (eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ) CKD prevalence (range: 7.0%–34.3% and 0.1%–17.0%, respectively). Up to an estimated 434.3 million (95% CI 350.2 to 519.7) adults have CKD in Asia, including up to 65.6 million (95% CI 42.2 to 94.9) who have advanced CKD. The greatest number of adults living with CKD were in China (up to 159.8 million, 95% CI 146.6 to 174.1) and India (up to 140.2 million, 95% CI 110.7 to 169.7), collectively having 69.1% of the total number of adults with CKD in the region. Conclusion The large number of people with CKD, and the substantial number with advanced CKD, show the need for urgent collaborative action in Asia to prevent and manage CKD and its complications.

BACKGROUND: Studies that have evaluated the use of intravenous vitamin C in adults with sepsis who were receiving vasopressor therapy in the intensive care unit (ICU) have shown mixed results with respect to the risk of death and organ dysfunction. METHODS: In this randomized, placebo-controlled trial, we assigned adults who had been in the ICU for no longer than 24 hours, who had proven or suspected infection as the main diagnosis, and who were receiving a vasopressor to receive an infusion of either vitamin C (at a dose of 50 mg per kilogram of body weight) or matched placebo administered every 6 hours for up to 96 hours. The primary outcome was a composite of death or persistent organ dysfunction (defined by the use of vasopressors, invasive mechanical ventilation, or new renal-replacement therapy) on day 28. RESULTS: A total of 872 patients underwent randomization (435 to the vitamin C group and 437 to the control group). The primary outcome occurred in 191 of 429 patients (44.5%) in the vitamin C group and in 167 of 434 patients (38.5%) in the control group (risk ratio, 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04 to 1.40; P = 0.01). At 28 days, death had occurred in 152 of 429 patients (35.4%) in the vitamin C group and in 137 of 434 patients (31.6%) in the placebo group (risk ratio, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.98 to 1.40) and persistent organ dysfunction in 39 of 429 patients (9.1%) and 30 of 434 patients (6.9%), respectively (risk ratio, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.83 to 2.05). Findings were similar in the two groups regarding organ-dysfunction scores, biomarkers, 6-month survival, health-related quality of life, stage 3 acute kidney injury, and hypoglycemic episodes. In the vitamin C group, one patient had a severe hypoglycemic episode and another had a serious anaphylaxis event. CONCLUSIONS: In adults with sepsis receiving vasopressor therapy in the ICU, those who received intravenous vitamin C had a higher risk of death or persistent organ dysfunction at 28 days than those who received placebo. (Funded by the Lotte and John Hecht Memorial Foundation; LOVIT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03680274.).

Importance: The effect of glucocorticoids on major kidney outcomes and adverse events in IgA nephropathy has been uncertain. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy and adverse effects of methylprednisolone in patients with IgA nephropathy at high risk of kidney function decline. Design, Setting, and Participants: An international, multicenter, double-blind, randomized clinical trial that enrolled 503 participants with IgA nephropathy, proteinuria greater than or equal to 1 g per day, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20 to 120 mL/min/1.73 m2 after at least 3 months of optimized background care from 67 centers in Australia, Canada, China, India, and Malaysia between May 2012 and November 2019, with follow-up until June 2021. Interventions: Participants were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive oral methylprednisolone (initially 0.6-0.8 mg/kg/d, maximum 48 mg/d, weaning by 8 mg/d/mo; n = 136) or placebo (n = 126). After 262 participants were randomized, an excess of serious infections was identified, leading to dose reduction (0.4 mg/kg/d, maximum 32 mg/d, weaning by 4 mg/d/mo) and addition of antibiotic prophylaxis for pneumocystis pneumonia for subsequent participants (121 in the oral methylprednisolone group and 120 in the placebo group). Main Outcomes And Measures: The primary end point was a composite of 40% decline in eGFR, kidney failure (dialysis, transplant), or death due to kidney disease. There were 11 secondary outcomes, including kidney failure. Results: Among 503 randomized patients (mean age, 38 years; 198 [39%] women; mean eGFR, 61.5 mL/min/1.73 m2; mean proteinuria, 2.46 g/d), 493 (98%) completed the trial. Over a mean of 4.2 years of follow-up, the primary outcome occurred in 74 participants (28.8%) in the methylprednisolone group compared with 106 (43.1%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR], 0.53 [95% CI, 0.39-0.72]; P < .001; absolute annual event rate difference, -4.8% per year [95% CI, -8.0% to -1.6%]). The effect on the primary outcome was seen across each dose compared with the relevant participants in the placebo group recruited to each regimen (P for heterogeneity = .11): full-dose HR, 0.58 (95% CI, 0.41-0.81); reduced-dose HR, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.11-0.65). Of the 11 prespecified secondary end points, 9 showed significant differences in favor of the intervention, including kidney failure (50 [19.5%] vs 67 [27.2%]; HR, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.40-0.87]; P = .008; annual event rate difference, -2.9% per year [95% CI, -5.4% to -0.3%]). Serious adverse events were more frequent with methylprednisolone vs placebo (28 [10.9%] vs 7 [2.8%] patients with serious adverse events), primarily with full-dose therapy compared with its matching placebo (22 [16.2%] vs 4 [3.2%]). Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with IgA nephropathy at high risk of progression, treatment with oral methylprednisolone for 6 to 9 months, compared with placebo, significantly reduced the risk of the composite outcome of kidney function decline, kidney failure, or death due to kidney disease. However, the incidence of serious adverse events was increased with oral methylprednisolone, mainly with high-dose therapy. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01560052.

BACKGROUND: Research priority setting with stakeholders can help direct the limited resources for health research toward priority areas of need. Ensuring transparency of the priority setting process can strengthen legitimacy and credibility for influencing the research agenda. This study aims to develop a reporting guideline for priority setting of health research. METHODS: We searched electronic databases and relevant websites for sources (frameworks, guidelines, or models for conducting, appraising, reporting or evaluating health research priority setting, and reviews (including systematic reviews)), and primary studies of research priority setting to July 2019. We inductively developed a list of reporting items and piloted the preliminary guideline with a diverse range of 30 priority setting studies from the records retrieved. RESULTS: From 21,556 records, we included 26 sources for the candidate REPRISE framework and 455 primary research studies. The REporting guideline for PRIority SEtting of health research (REPRISE) has 31 reporting items that cover 10 domains: context and scope, governance and team, framework for priority setting, stakeholders/participants, identification and collection of priorities, prioritization of research topics, output, evaluation and feedback, translation and implementation, and funding and conflict of interest. Each reporting item includes a descriptor and examples. CONCLUSIONS: The REPRISE guideline can facilitate comprehensive reporting of studies of research priority setting. Improved transparency in research priority setting may strengthen the acceptability and implementation of the research priorities identified, so that efforts and funding are invested in generating evidence that is of importance to all stakeholders. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Not applicable.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure places a significant burden on patients and health systems in high-income countries. However, information about its burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is scant. We thus set out to review both published and unpublished information on the presentation, causes, management, and outcomes of heart failure in LMICs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Medline, Embase, Global Health Database, and World Health Organization regional databases were searched for studies from LMICs published between 1 January 1995 and 30 March 2014. Additional unpublished data were requested from investigators and international heart failure experts. We identified 42 studies that provided relevant information on acute hospital care (25 LMICs; 232,550 patients) and 11 studies on the management of chronic heart failure in primary care or outpatient settings (14 LMICs; 5,358 patients). The mean age of patients studied ranged from 42 y in Cameroon and Ghana to 75 y in Argentina, and mean age in studies largely correlated with the human development index of the country in which they were conducted (r = 0.71, p<0.001). Overall, ischaemic heart disease was the main reported cause of heart failure in all regions except Africa and the Americas, where hypertension was predominant. Taking both those managed acutely in hospital and those in non-acute outpatient or community settings together, 57% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 49%-64%) of patients were treated with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, 34% (95% CI: 28%-41%) with beta-blockers, and 32% (95% CI: 25%-39%) with mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists. Mean inpatient stay was 10 d, ranging from 3 d in India to 23 d in China. Acute heart failure accounted for 2.2% (range: 0.3%-7.7%) of total hospital admissions, and mean in-hospital mortality was 8% (95% CI: 6%-10%). There was substantial variation between studies (p<0.001 across all variables), and most data were from urban tertiary referral centres. Only one population-based study assessing incidence and/or prevalence of heart failure was identified. CONCLUSIONS: The presentation, underlying causes, management, and outcomes of heart failure vary substantially across LMICs. On average, the use of evidence-based medications tends to be suboptimal. Better strategies for heart failure surveillance and management in LMICs are needed. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the global capacity (availability, accessibility, quality, and affordability) to deliver kidney replacement therapy (dialysis and transplantation) and conservative kidney management. DESIGN: International cross sectional survey. SETTING: International Society of Nephrology (ISN) survey of 182 countries from July to September 2018. PARTICIPANTS: Key stakeholders identified by ISN's national and regional leaders. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Markers of national capacity to deliver core components of kidney replacement therapy and conservative kidney management. RESULTS: Responses were received from 160 (87.9%) of 182 countries, comprising 97.8% (7338.5 million of 7501.3 million) of the world's population. A wide variation was found in capacity and structures for kidney replacement therapy and conservative kidney management-namely, funding mechanisms, health workforce, service delivery, and available technologies. Information on the prevalence of treated end stage kidney disease was available in 91 (42%) of 218 countries worldwide. Estimates varied more than 800-fold from 4 to 3392 per million population. Rwanda was the only low income country to report data on the prevalence of treated disease; 5 (<10%) of 53 African countries reported these data. Of 159 countries, 102 (64%) provided public funding for kidney replacement therapy. Sixty eight (43%) of 159 countries charged no fees at the point of care delivery and 34 (21%) made some charge. Haemodialysis was reported as available in 156 (100%) of 156 countries, peritoneal dialysis in 119 (76%) of 156 countries, and kidney transplantation in 114 (74%) of 155 countries. Dialysis and kidney transplantation were available to more than 50% of patients in only 108 (70%) and 45 (29%) of 154 countries that offered these services, respectively. Conservative kidney management was available in 124 (81%) of 154 countries. Worldwide, the median number of nephrologists was 9.96 per million population, which varied with income level. CONCLUSIONS: These comprehensive data show the capacity of countries (including low income countries) to provide optimal care for patients with end stage kidney disease. They demonstrate substantial variability in the burden of such disease and capacity for kidney replacement therapy and conservative kidney management, which have implications for policy.

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

The burden of premature death and health loss from ESRD is well described. Less is known regarding the burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to reduced GFR. We estimated the prevalence of reduced GFR categories 3, 4, and 5 (not on RRT) for 188 countries at six time points from 1990 to 2013. Relative risks of cardiovascular outcomes by three categories of reduced GFR were calculated by pooled random effects meta-analysis. Results are presented as deaths for outcomes of cardiovascular disease and ESRD and as disability-adjusted life years for outcomes of cardiovascular disease, GFR categories 3, 4, and 5, and ESRD. In 2013, reduced GFR was associated with 4% of deaths worldwide, or 2.2 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI], 2.0 to 2.4 million). More than half of these attributable deaths were cardiovascular deaths (1.2 million; 95% UI, 1.1 to 1.4 million), whereas 0.96 million (95% UI, 0.81 to 1.0 million) were ESRD-related deaths. Compared with metabolic risk factors, reduced GFR ranked below high systolic BP, high body mass index, and high fasting plasma glucose, and similarly with high total cholesterol as a risk factor for disability-adjusted life years in both developed and developing world regions. In conclusion, by 2013, cardiovascular deaths attributed to reduced GFR outnumbered ESRD deaths throughout the world. Studies are needed to evaluate the benefit of early detection of CKD and treatment to decrease these deaths.