Guangzhou Medical University

BACKGROUND: Since December 2019, when coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) emerged in Wuhan city and rapidly spread throughout China, data have been needed on the clinical characteristics of the affected patients. METHODS: We extracted data regarding 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 from 552 hospitals in 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in mainland China through January 29, 2020. The primary composite end point was admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), the use of mechanical ventilation, or death. RESULTS: The median age of the patients was 47 years; 41.9% of the patients were female. The primary composite end point occurred in 67 patients (6.1%), including 5.0% who were admitted to the ICU, 2.3% who underwent invasive mechanical ventilation, and 1.4% who died. Only 1.9% of the patients had a history of direct contact with wildlife. Among nonresidents of Wuhan, 72.3% had contact with residents of Wuhan, including 31.3% who had visited the city. The most common symptoms were fever (43.8% on admission and 88.7% during hospitalization) and cough (67.8%). Diarrhea was uncommon (3.8%). The median incubation period was 4 days (interquartile range, 2 to 7). On admission, ground-glass opacity was the most common radiologic finding on chest computed tomography (CT) (56.4%). No radiographic or CT abnormality was found in 157 of 877 patients (17.9%) with nonsevere disease and in 5 of 173 patients (2.9%) with severe disease. Lymphocytopenia was present in 83.2% of the patients on admission. CONCLUSIONS: During the first 2 months of the current outbreak, Covid-19 spread rapidly throughout China and caused varying degrees of illness. Patients often presented without fever, and many did not have abnormal radiologic findings. (Funded by the National Health Commission of China and others.).

The last decade has seen a sharp increase in the number of scientific publications describing physiological and pathological functions of extracellular vesicles (EVs), a collective term covering various subtypes of cell-released, membranous structures, called exosomes, microvesicles, microparticles, ectosomes, oncosomes, apoptotic bodies, and many other names. However, specific issues arise when working with these entities, whose size and amount often make them difficult to obtain as relatively pure preparations, and to characterize properly. The International Society for Extracellular Vesicles (ISEV) proposed Minimal Information for Studies of Extracellular Vesicles ("MISEV") guidelines for the field in 2014. We now update these "MISEV2014" guidelines based on evolution of the collective knowledge in the last four years. An important point to consider is that ascribing a specific function to EVs in general, or to subtypes of EVs, requires reporting of specific information beyond mere description of function in a crude, potentially contaminated, and heterogeneous preparation. For example, claims that exosomes are endowed with exquisite and specific activities remain difficult to support experimentally, given our still limited knowledge of their specific molecular machineries of biogenesis and release, as compared with other biophysically similar EVs. The MISEV2018 guidelines include tables and outlines of suggested protocols and steps to follow to document specific EV-associated functional activities. Finally, a checklist is provided with summaries of key points.

In 2008 we published the first set of guidelines for standardizing research in autophagy. Since then, research on this topic has continued to accelerate, and many new scientists have entered the field. Our knowledge base and relevant new technologies have also been expanding. Accordingly, it is important to update these guidelines for monitoring autophagy in different organisms. Various reviews have described the range of assays that have been used for this purpose. Nevertheless, there continues to be confusion regarding acceptable methods to measure autophagy, especially in multicellular eukaryotes. For example, a key point that needs to be emphasized is thatthere is a difference between measurements that monitor the numbers or volume of autophagic elements (e.g., autophagosomes or autolysosomes) at any stage of the autophagic process versus those that measure flux through the autophagy pathway (i.e., the completeprocess including the amount and rate of cargo sequestered and degraded). In particular, a block in macroautophagy that results in autophagosome accumulation must be differentiated from stimuli that increase autophagic activity, defined as increasedautophagy induction coupled with increased delivery to, and degradation within, lysosomes (inmost higher eukaryotes and some protists such as Dictyostelium) or the vacuole (in plants and fungi). In other words, it is especially important that investigators new to the field understand that the appearance of more autophagosomes does not necessarily equate with more autophagy. In fact, in manycases, autophagosomes accumulate because of a block in trafficking to lysosomes without a concomitant change in autophagosome biogenesis, whereas an increase in autolysosomes may reflect a reduction in degradative activity. It is worth emphasizing here that lysosomal digestion is a stage of autophagy and evaluating its competence is a crucial part of the evaluation of autophagic flux, or complete autophagy. Here, we present a set of guidelines for the selection and interpretation of methods for use by investigators who aim to examine macroautophagy and related processes, as well as forreviewers who need to provide realistic and reasonable critiques of papers that are focused on these processes. These guidelines are not meant to be a formulaic set of rules, because the appropriate assays depend in part on the question being asked and the system being used. In addition, we emphasize that no individual assay is guaranteed to be the most appropriate one in every situation, and we strongly recommend the use of multipleassays to monitor autophagy. Along these lines, because of the potential for pleiotropic effects due to blocking autophagy through genetic manipulation, it is imperative to target by gene knockout or RNA interference more than one autophagyrelated protein. In addition, some individual Atg proteins, or groups of proteins, are involved in other cellular pathways implying that not all Atg proteins can be used as a specific marker for an autophagic process. In these guidelines, we consider these various methods of assessing autophagy and what information can, or cannot, be obtained from them. Finally, by discussing the merits and limits of particular assays, we hope to encourage technical innovation in the field.

Cell death can be executed through different subroutines. Since the description of ferroptosis as an iron-dependent form of non-apoptotic cell death in 2012, there has been mounting interest in the process and function of ferroptosis. Ferroptosis can occur through two major pathways, the extrinsic or transporter-dependent pathway and the intrinsic or enzyme-regulated pathway. Ferroptosis is caused by a redox imbalance between the production of oxidants and antioxidants, which is driven by the abnormal expression and activity of multiple redox-active enzymes that produce or detoxify free radicals and lipid oxidation products. Accordingly, ferroptosis is precisely regulated at multiple levels, including epigenetic, transcriptional, posttranscriptional and posttranslational layers. The transcription factor NFE2L2 plays a central role in upregulating anti-ferroptotic defense, whereas selective autophagy may promote ferroptotic death. Here, we review current knowledge on the integrated molecular machinery of ferroptosis and describe how dysregulated ferroptosis is involved in cancer, neurodegeneration, tissue injury, inflammation, and infection.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak is evolving rapidly worldwide. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the risk of serious adverse outcomes in patients with COVID-19 by stratifying the comorbidity status. METHODS: We analysed data from 1590 laboratory confirmed hospitalised patients from 575 hospitals in 31 provinces/autonomous regions/provincial municipalities across mainland China between 11 December 2019 and 31 January 2020. We analysed the composite end-points, which consisted of admission to an intensive care unit, invasive ventilation or death. The risk of reaching the composite end-points was compared according to the presence and number of comorbidities. RESULTS: The mean age was 48.9 years and 686 (42.7%) patients were female. Severe cases accounted for 16.0% of the study population. 131 (8.2%) patients reached the composite end-points. 399 (25.1%) reported having at least one comorbidity. The most prevalent comorbidity was hypertension (16.9%), followed by diabetes (8.2%). 130 (8.2%) patients reported having two or more comorbidities. After adjusting for age and smoking status, COPD (HR (95% CI) 2.681 (1.424-5.048)), diabetes (1.59 (1.03-2.45)), hypertension (1.58 (1.07-2.32)) and malignancy (3.50 (1.60-7.64)) were risk factors of reaching the composite end-points. The hazard ratio (95% CI) was 1.79 (1.16-2.77) among patients with at least one comorbidity and 2.59 (1.61-4.17) among patients with two or more comorbidities. CONCLUSION: Among laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19, patients with any comorbidity yielded poorer clinical outcomes than those without. A greater number of comorbidities also correlated with poorer clinical outcomes.

This Executive Summary of the Global Strategy for the Diagnosis, Management, and Prevention of COPD, Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2017 report focuses primarily on the revised and novel parts of the document. The most significant changes include: (1) the assessment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease has been refined to separate the spirometric assessment from symptom evaluation. ABCD groups are now proposed to be derived exclusively from patient symptoms and their history of exacerbations; (2) for each of the groups A to D, escalation strategies for pharmacologic treatments are proposed; (3) the concept of deescalation of therapy is introduced in the treatment assessment scheme; (4) nonpharmacologic therapies are comprehensively presented; and (5) the importance of comorbid conditions in managing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is reviewed.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of the ALK inhibitor crizotinib as compared with standard chemotherapy as first-line treatment for advanced ALK-positive non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is unknown. METHODS: We conducted an open-label, phase 3 trial comparing crizotinib with chemotherapy in 343 patients with advanced ALK-positive nonsquamous NSCLC who had received no previous systemic treatment for advanced disease. Patients were randomly assigned to receive oral crizotinib at a dose of 250 mg twice daily or to receive intravenous chemotherapy (pemetrexed, 500 mg per square meter of body-surface area, plus either cisplatin, 75 mg per square meter, or carboplatin, target area under the curve of 5 to 6 mg per milliliter per minute) every 3 weeks for up to six cycles. Crossover to crizotinib treatment after disease progression was permitted for patients receiving chemotherapy. The primary end point was progression-free survival as assessed by independent radiologic review. RESULTS: Progression-free survival was significantly longer with crizotinib than with chemotherapy (median, 10.9 months vs. 7.0 months; hazard ratio for progression or death with crizotinib, 0.45; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.35 to 0.60; P<0.001). Objective response rates were 74% and 45%, respectively (P<0.001). Median overall survival was not reached in either group (hazard ratio for death with crizotinib, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.54 to 1.26; P=0.36); the probability of 1-year survival was 84% with crizotinib and 79% with chemotherapy. The most common adverse events with crizotinib were vision disorders, diarrhea, nausea, and edema, and the most common events with chemotherapy were nausea, fatigue, vomiting, and decreased appetite. As compared with chemotherapy, crizotinib was associated with greater reduction in lung cancer symptoms and greater improvement in quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: Crizotinib was superior to standard first-line pemetrexed-plus-platinum chemotherapy in patients with previously untreated advanced ALK-positive NSCLC. (Funded by Pfizer; PROFILE 1014 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01154140.).

A novel infectious disease, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was detected in Wuhan, China, in December 2019.The disease (COVID-19) spread rapidly, reaching epidemic proportions in China, and has been found in 27 other countries.As of February 27, 2020, over 82,000 cases of COVID-19 were reported, with > 2800 deaths.No specific therapeutics are available, and current management includes travel restrictions, patient isolation, and supportive medical care.There are a number of pharmaceuticals already being tested [1, 2], but a better understanding of the underlying pathobiology is required.In this context, this article will briefly review the rationale for angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor as a specific target.

autophagic responses. Here, we critically discuss current methods of assessing autophagy and the information they can, or cannot, provide. Our ultimate goal is to encourage intellectual and technical innovation in the field.

Macroautophagy/autophagy is an evolutionarily conserved degradation pathway that maintains homeostasis. Ferroptosis, a novel form of regulated cell death, is characterized by a production of reactive oxygen species from accumulated iron and lipid peroxidation. However, the relationship between autophagy and ferroptosis at the genetic level remains unclear. Here, we demonstrated that autophagy contributes to ferroptosis by degradation of ferritin in fibroblasts and cancer cells. Knockout or knockdown of Atg5 (autophagy-related 5) and Atg7 limited erastin-induced ferroptosis with decreased intracellular ferrous iron levels, and lipid peroxidation. Remarkably, NCOA4 (nuclear receptor coactivator 4) was a selective cargo receptor for the selective autophagic turnover of ferritin (namely ferritinophagy) in ferroptosis. Consistently, genetic inhibition of NCOA4 inhibited ferritin degradation and suppressed ferroptosis. In contrast, overexpression of NCOA4 increased ferritin degradation and promoted ferroptosis. These findings provide novel insight into the interplay between autophagy and regulated cell death.

Exosomes are nano-sized biovesicles released into surrounding body fluids upon fusion of multivesicular bodies and the plasma membrane. They were shown to carry cell-specific cargos of proteins, lipids, and genetic materials, and can be selectively taken up by neighboring or distant cells far from their release, reprogramming the recipient cells upon their bioactive compounds. Therefore, the regulated formation of exosomes, specific makeup of their cargo, cell-targeting specificity are of immense biological interest considering extremely high potential of exosomes as non-invasive diagnostic biomarkers, as well as therapeutic nanocarriers. In present review, we outline and discuss recent progress in the elucidation of the regulatory mechanisms of exosome biogenesis, the molecular composition of exosomes, and technologies used in exosome research. Furthermore, we focus on the potential use of exosomes as valuable diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers for their cell-lineage and state-specific contents, and possibilities as therapeutic vehicles for drug and gene delivery. Exosome research is now in its infancy, in-depth understanding of subcellular components and mechanisms involved in exosome formation and specific cell-targeting will bring light on their physiological activities.

BACKGROUND: Obstructive sleep apnea is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events; whether treatment with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) prevents major cardiovascular events is uncertain. METHODS: After a 1-week run-in period during which the participants used sham CPAP, we randomly assigned 2717 eligible adults between 45 and 75 years of age who had moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea and coronary or cerebrovascular disease to receive CPAP treatment plus usual care (CPAP group) or usual care alone (usual-care group). The primary composite end point was death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, stroke, or hospitalization for unstable angina, heart failure, or transient ischemic attack. Secondary end points included other cardiovascular outcomes, health-related quality of life, snoring symptoms, daytime sleepiness, and mood. RESULTS: Most of the participants were men who had moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea and minimal sleepiness. In the CPAP group, the mean duration of adherence to CPAP therapy was 3.3 hours per night, and the mean apnea-hypopnea index (the number of apnea or hypopnea events per hour of recording) decreased from 29.0 events per hour at baseline to 3.7 events per hour during follow-up. After a mean follow-up of 3.7 years, a primary end-point event had occurred in 229 participants in the CPAP group (17.0%) and in 207 participants in the usual-care group (15.4%) (hazard ratio with CPAP, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 0.91 to 1.32; P=0.34). No significant effect on any individual or other composite cardiovascular end point was observed. CPAP significantly reduced snoring and daytime sleepiness and improved health-related quality of life and mood. CONCLUSIONS: Therapy with CPAP plus usual care, as compared with usual care alone, did not prevent cardiovascular events in patients with moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea and established cardiovascular disease. (Funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia and others; SAVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00738179 ; Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number, ACTRN12608000409370 .).

2ME: beta-mercaptoethanol; α-KG: α-ketoglutarate; ccRCC: clear cell renal cell carcinoma; EMT: epithelial-mesenchymal transition; FAO: fatty acid beta-oxidation; GSH: glutathione; MEFs: mouse embryonic fibroblasts; MUFAs: monounsaturated fatty acids; NO: nitric oxide; NOX: NADPH oxidase; PPP: pentose phosphate pathway; PUFA: polyunsaturated fatty acid; RCD: regulated cell death; RNS: reactive nitrogen species; ROS: reactive oxygen species; RTAs: radical-trapping antioxidants; UPS: ubiquitin-proteasome system; UTR: untranslated region.

UNLABELLED: Ferroptosis is a recently recognized form of regulated cell death caused by an iron-dependent accumulation of lipid reactive oxygen species. However, the molecular mechanisms regulating ferroptosis remain obscure. Here, we report that nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (NRF2) plays a central role in protecting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cells against ferroptosis. Upon exposure to ferroptosis-inducing compounds (e.g., erastin, sorafenib, and buthionine sulfoximine), p62 expression prevented NRF2 degradation and enhanced subsequent NRF2 nuclear accumulation through inactivation of Kelch-like ECH-associated protein 1. Additionally, nuclear NRF2 interacted with transcriptional coactivator small v-maf avian musculoaponeurotic fibrosarcoma oncogene homolog proteins such as MafG and then activated transcription of quinone oxidoreductase-1, heme oxygenase-1, and ferritin heavy chain-1. Knockdown of p62, quinone oxidoreductase-1, heme oxygenase-1, and ferritin heavy chain-1 by RNA interference in HCC cells promoted ferroptosis in response to erastin and sorafenib. Furthermore, genetic or pharmacologic inhibition of NRF2 expression/activity in HCC cells increased the anticancer activity of erastin and sorafenib in vitro and in tumor xenograft models. CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate novel molecular mechanisms and signaling pathways of ferroptosis; the status of NRF2 is a key factor that determines the therapeutic response to ferroptosis-targeted therapies in HCC cells.

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) quickly spread all over China and to more than 20 other countries. Although the virus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus [SARS-Cov-2]) nucleic acid real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test has become the standard method for diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection, these real-time PCR test kits have many limitations. In addition, high false-negative rates were reported. There is an urgent need for an accurate and rapid test method to quickly identify a large number of infected patients and asymptomatic carriers to prevent virus transmission and assure timely treatment of patients. We have developed a rapid and simple point-of-care lateral flow immunoassay that can detect immunoglobulin M (IgM) and IgG antibodies simultaneously against SARS-CoV-2 virus in human blood within 15 minutes which can detect patients at different infection stages. With this test kit, we carried out clinical studies to validate its clinical efficacy uses. The clinical detection sensitivity and specificity of this test were measured using blood samples collected from 397 PCR confirmed COVID-19 patients and 128 negative patients at eight different clinical sites. The overall testing sensitivity was 88.66% and specificity was 90.63%. In addition, we evaluated clinical diagnosis results obtained from different types of venous and fingerstick blood samples. The results indicated great detection consistency among samples from fingerstick blood, serum and plasma of venous blood. The IgM-IgG combined assay has better utility and sensitivity compared with a single IgM or IgG test. It can be used for the rapid screening of SARS-CoV-2 carriers, symptomatic or asymptomatic, in hospitals, clinics, and test laboratories.

PURPOSE: To develop and validate a radiomics nomogram for preoperative prediction of lymph node (LN) metastasis in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: The prediction model was developed in a primary cohort that consisted of 326 patients with clinicopathologically confirmed CRC, and data was gathered from January 2007 to April 2010. Radiomic features were extracted from portal venous-phase computed tomography (CT) of CRC. Lasso regression model was used for data dimension reduction, feature selection, and radiomics signature building. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to develop the predicting model, we incorporated the radiomics signature, CT-reported LN status, and independent clinicopathologic risk factors, and this was presented with a radiomics nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was assessed with respect to its calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness. Internal validation was assessed. An independent validation cohort contained 200 consecutive patients from May 2010 to December 2011. RESULTS: The radiomics signature, which consisted of 24 selected features, was significantly associated with LN status (P < .001 for both primary and validation cohorts). Predictors contained in the individualized prediction nomogram included the radiomics signature, CT-reported LN status, and carcinoembryonic antigen level. Addition of histologic grade to the nomogram failed to show incremental prognostic value. The model showed good discrimination, with a C-index of 0.736 (C-index, 0.759 and 0.766 through internal validation), and good calibration. Application of the nomogram in the validation cohort still gave good discrimination (C-index, 0.778 [95% CI, 0.769 to 0.787]) and good calibration. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the radiomics nomogram was clinically useful. CONCLUSION: This study presents a radiomics nomogram that incorporates the radiomics signature, CT-reported LN status, and clinical risk factors, which can be conveniently used to facilitate the preoperative individualized prediction of LN metastasis in patients with CRC.

Abstract The novel COVID-19 outbreak has affected more than 200 countries and territories as of March 2020. Given that patients with cancer are generally more vulnerable to infections, systematic analysis of diverse cohorts of patients with cancer affected by COVID-19 is needed. We performed a multicenter study including 105 patients with cancer and 536 age-matched noncancer patients confirmed with COVID-19. Our results showed COVID-19 patients with cancer had higher risks in all severe outcomes. Patients with hematologic cancer, lung cancer, or with metastatic cancer (stage IV) had the highest frequency of severe events. Patients with nonmetastatic cancer experienced similar frequencies of severe conditions to those observed in patients without cancer. Patients who received surgery had higher risks of having severe events, whereas patients who underwent only radiotherapy did not demonstrate significant differences in severe events when compared with patients without cancer. These findings indicate that patients with cancer appear more vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Significance: Because this is the first large cohort study on this topic, our report will provide much-needed information that will benefit patients with cancer globally. As such, we believe it is extremely important that our study be disseminated widely to alert clinicians and patients. This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 747

Circular RNAs (CircRNAs) are single-stranded, covalently closed RNA molecules that are ubiquitous across species ranging from viruses to mammals. Important advances have been made in the biogenesis, regulation, localization, degradation and modification of circRNAs. CircRNAs exert biological functions by acting as transcriptional regulators, microRNA (miR) sponges and protein templates. Moreover, emerging evidence has revealed that a group of circRNAs can serve as protein decoys, scaffolds and recruiters. However, the existing research on circRNA-protein interactions is quite limited. Hence, in this review, we briefly summarize recent progress in the metabolism and functions of circRNAs and elaborately discuss the patterns of circRNA-protein interactions, including altering interactions between proteins, tethering or sequestering proteins, recruiting proteins to chromatin, forming circRNA-protein-mRNA ternary complexes and translocating or redistributing proteins. Many discoveries have revealed that circRNAs have unique expression signatures and play crucial roles in a variety of diseases, enabling them to potentially act as diagnostic biomarkers and therapeutic targets. This review systematically evaluates the roles and mechanisms of circRNAs, with the hope of advancing translational medicine involving circRNAs.

Importance: Early identification of patients with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who may develop critical illness is of great importance and may aid in delivering proper treatment and optimizing use of resources. Objective: To develop and validate a clinical score at hospital admission for predicting which patients with COVID-19 will develop critical illness based on a nationwide cohort in China. Design, Setting, and Participants: Collaborating with the National Health Commission of China, we established a retrospective cohort of patients with COVID-19 from 575 hospitals in 31 provincial administrative regions as of January 31, 2020. Epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and imaging variables ascertained at hospital admission were screened using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and logistic regression to construct a predictive risk score (COVID-GRAM). The score provides an estimate of the risk that a hospitalized patient with COVID-19 will develop critical illness. Accuracy of the score was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Data from 4 additional cohorts in China hospitalized with COVID-19 were used to validate the score. Data were analyzed between February 20, 2020 and March 17, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Among patients with COVID-19 admitted to the hospital, critical illness was defined as the composite measure of admission to the intensive care unit, invasive ventilation, or death. Results: The development cohort included 1590 patients. the mean (SD) age of patients in the cohort was 48.9 (15.7) years; 904 (57.3%) were men. The validation cohort included 710 patients with a mean (SD) age of 48.2 (15.2) years, and 382 (53.8%) were men and 172 (24.2%). From 72 potential predictors, 10 variables were independent predictive factors and were included in the risk score: chest radiographic abnormality (OR, 3.39; 95% CI, 2.14-5.38), age (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.05), hemoptysis (OR, 4.53; 95% CI, 1.36-15.15), dyspnea (OR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.18-3.01), unconsciousness (OR, 4.71; 95% CI, 1.39-15.98), number of comorbidities (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.27-2.00), cancer history (OR, 4.07; 95% CI, 1.23-13.43), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.10), lactate dehydrogenase (OR, 1.002; 95% CI, 1.001-1.004) and direct bilirubin (OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.06-1.24). The mean AUC in the development cohort was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.85-0.91) and the AUC in the validation cohort was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.84-0.93). The score has been translated into an online risk calculator that is freely available to the public (http://118.126.104.170/). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, a risk score based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients at the time of admission to the hospital was developed that may help predict a patient's risk of developing critical illness.

BACKGROUND: , the period of mass migration for the annual Spring Festival. To contain its spread, China adopted unprecedented nationwide interventions on January 23 2020. These policies included large-scale quarantine, strict controls on travel and extensive monitoring of suspected cases. However, it is unknown whether these policies have had an impact on the epidemic. We sought to show how these control measures impacted the containment of the epidemic. METHODS: We integrated population migration data before and after January 23 and most updated COVID-19 epidemiological data into the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model to derive the epidemic curve. We also used an artificial intelligence (AI) approach, trained on the 2003 SARS data, to predict the epidemic. RESULTS: We found that the epidemic of China should peak by late February, showing gradual decline by end of April. A five-day delay in implementation would have increased epidemic size in mainland China three-fold. Lifting the Hubei quarantine would lead to a second epidemic peak in Hubei province in mid-March and extend the epidemic to late April, a result corroborated by the machine learning prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Our dynamic SEIR model was effective in predicting the COVID-19 epidemic peaks and sizes. The implementation of control measures on January 23 2020 was indispensable in reducing the eventual COVID-19 epidemic size.