Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin

Collinearity refers to the non independence of predictor variables, usually in a regression‐type analysis. It is a common feature of any descriptive ecological data set and can be a problem for parameter estimation because it inflates the variance of regression parameters and hence potentially leads to the wrong identification of relevant predictors in a statistical model. Collinearity is a severe problem when a model is trained on data from one region or time, and predicted to another with a different or unknown structure of collinearity. To demonstrate the reach of the problem of collinearity in ecology, we show how relationships among predictors differ between biomes, change over spatial scales and through time. Across disciplines, different approaches to addressing collinearity problems have been developed, ranging from clustering of predictors, threshold‐based pre‐selection, through latent variable methods, to shrinkage and regularisation. Using simulated data with five predictor‐response relationships of increasing complexity and eight levels of collinearity we compared ways to address collinearity with standard multiple regression and machine‐learning approaches. We assessed the performance of each approach by testing its impact on prediction to new data. In the extreme, we tested whether the methods were able to identify the true underlying relationship in a training dataset with strong collinearity by evaluating its performance on a test dataset without any collinearity. We found that methods specifically designed for collinearity, such as latent variable methods and tree based models, did not outperform the traditional GLM and threshold‐based pre‐selection. Our results highlight the value of GLM in combination with penalised methods (particularly ridge) and threshold‐based pre‐selection when omitted variables are considered in the final interpretation. However, all approaches tested yielded degraded predictions under change in collinearity structure and the ‘folk lore’‐thresholds of correlation coefficients between predictor variables of |r| >0.7 was an appropriate indicator for when collinearity begins to severely distort model estimation and subsequent prediction. The use of ecological understanding of the system in pre‐analysis variable selection and the choice of the least sensitive statistical approaches reduce the problems of collinearity, but cannot ultimately solve them.

OBJECTIVE: The 1987 American College of Rheumatology (ACR; formerly, the American Rheumatism Association) classification criteria for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have been criticized for their lack of sensitivity in early disease. This work was undertaken to develop new classification criteria for RA. METHODS: A joint working group from the ACR and the European League Against Rheumatism developed, in 3 phases, a new approach to classifying RA. The work focused on identifying, among patients newly presenting with undifferentiated inflammatory synovitis, factors that best discriminated between those who were and those who were not at high risk for persistent and/or erosive disease--this being the appropriate current paradigm underlying the disease construct "rheumatoid arthritis." RESULTS: In the new criteria set, classification as "definite RA" is based on the confirmed presence of synovitis in at least 1 joint, absence of an alternative diagnosis that better explains the synovitis, and achievement of a total score of 6 or greater (of a possible 10) from the individual scores in 4 domains: number and site of involved joints (score range 0-5), serologic abnormality (score range 0-3), elevated acute-phase response (score range 0-1), and symptom duration (2 levels; range 0-1). CONCLUSION: This new classification system redefines the current paradigm of RA by focusing on features at earlier stages of disease that are associated with persistent and/or erosive disease, rather than defining the disease by its late-stage features. This will refocus attention on the important need for earlier diagnosis and institution of effective disease-suppressing therapy to prevent or minimize the occurrence of the undesirable sequelae that currently comprise the paradigm underlying the disease construct "rheumatoid arthritis."

The Review summarizes much of particle physics and cosmology. Using data from previous editions, plus 2,873 new measurements from 758 papers, we list, evaluate, and average measured properties of gauge bosons and the recently discovered Higgs boson, leptons, quarks, mesons, and baryons. We summarize searches for hypothetical particles such as supersymmetric particles, heavy bosons, axions, dark photons, etc. Particle properties and search limits are listed in Summary Tables. We give numerous tables, figures, formulae, and reviews of topics such as Higgs Boson Physics, Supersymmetry, Grand Unified Theories, Neutrino Mixing, Dark Energy, Dark Matter, Cosmology, Particle Detectors, Colliders, Probability and Statistics. Among the 118 reviews are many that are new or heavily revised, including a new review on Neutrinos in Cosmology.Starting with this edition, the Review is divided into two volumes. Volume 1 includes the Summary Tables and all review articles. Volume 2 consists of the Particle Listings. Review articles that were previously part of the Listings are now included in volume 1.The complete Review (both volumes) is published online on the website of the Particle Data Group (http://pdg.lbl.gov) and in a journal. Volume 1 is available in print as the PDG Book. A Particle Physics Booklet with the Summary Tables and essential tables, figures, and equations from selected review articles is also available.The 2018 edition of the Review of Particle Physics should be cited as: M. Tanabashi et al. (Particle Data Group), Phys. Rev. D 98, 030001 (2018).

This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).

Abstract The Review summarizes much of particle physics and cosmology. Using data from previous editions, plus 2,143 new measurements from 709 papers, we list, evaluate, and average measured properties of gauge bosons and the recently discovered Higgs boson, leptons, quarks, mesons, and baryons. We summarize searches for hypothetical particles such as supersymmetric particles, heavy bosons, axions, dark photons, etc. Particle properties and search limits are listed in Summary Tables. We give numerous tables, figures, formulae, and reviews of topics such as Higgs Boson Physics, Supersymmetry, Grand Unified Theories, Neutrino Mixing, Dark Energy, Dark Matter, Cosmology, Particle Detectors, Colliders, Probability and Statistics. Among the 120 reviews are many that are new or heavily revised, including a new review on Machine Learning, and one on Spectroscopy of Light Meson Resonances. The Review is divided into two volumes. Volume 1 includes the Summary Tables and 97 review articles. Volume 2 consists of the Particle Listings and contains also 23 reviews that address specific aspects of the data presented in the Listings. The complete Review (both volumes) is published online on the website of the Particle Data Group (pdg.lbl.gov) and in a journal. Volume 1 is available in print as the PDG Book. A Particle Physics Booklet with the Summary Tables and essential tables, figures, and equations from selected review articles is available in print, as a web version optimized for use on phones, and as an Android app.

Abstract The Review summarizes much of particle physics and cosmology. Using data from previous editions, plus 3,324 new measurements from 878 papers, we list, evaluate, and average measured properties of gauge bosons and the recently discovered Higgs boson, leptons, quarks, mesons, and baryons. We summarize searches for hypothetical particles such as supersymmetric particles, heavy bosons, axions, dark photons, etc. Particle properties and search limits are listed in Summary Tables. We give numerous tables, figures, formulae, and reviews of topics such as Higgs Boson Physics, Supersymmetry, Grand Unified Theories, Neutrino Mixing, Dark Energy, Dark Matter, Cosmology, Particle Detectors, Colliders, Probability and Statistics. Among the 120 reviews are many that are new or heavily revised, including a new review on High Energy Soft QCD and Diffraction and one on the Determination of CKM Angles from B Hadrons. The Review is divided into two volumes. Volume 1 includes the Summary Tables and 98 review articles. Volume 2 consists of the Particle Listings and contains also 22 reviews that address specific aspects of the data presented in the Listings. The complete Review (both volumes) is published online on the website of the Particle Data Group (pdg.lbl.gov) and in a journal. Volume 1 is available in print as the PDG Book. A Particle Physics Booklet with the Summary Tables and essential tables, figures, and equations from selected review articles is available in print and as a web version optimized for use on phones as well as an Android app.

The city of Wuhan in China is the focus of global attention due to an outbreak of a febrile respiratory illness due to a coronavirus 2019-nCoV. In December 2019, there was an outbreak of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan, Hubei province in China, with an epidemiological link to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market where there was also sale of live animals. Notification of the WHO on 31 Dec 2019 by the Chinese Health Authorities has prompted health authorities in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan to step up border surveillance, and generated concern and fears that it could mark the emergence of a novel and serious threat to public health (WHO, 2020aWHO Emergencies preparedness, response. Pneumonia of unknown origin – China.Disease outbreak news. 2020https://www.who.int/csr/don/05-january-2020-pneumonia-of-unkown-cause-china/en/Google Scholar, Parr, 2020Parr J. Pneumonia in China: lack of information raises concerns among Hong Kong health workers.BMJ. 2020; 368 (Published 8 January 2020): m56https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m56Crossref PubMed Scopus (22) Google Scholar). The Chinese health authorities have taken prompt public health measures including intensive surveillance, epidemiological investigations, and closure of the market on 1 Jan 2020. SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, avian influenza, influenza and other common respiratory viruses were ruled out. The Chinese scientists were able to isolate a 2019-nCoV from a patient within a short time on 7 Jan 2020 and perform genome sequencing of the 2019-nCoV. The genetic sequence of the 2019-nCoV has become available to the WHO on 12 Jan 2020 and this has facilitated the laboratories in different countries to produce specific diagnostic PCR tests for detecting the novel infection (WHO, 2020bWHO Emergencies preparedness, response. Pneumonia of unknown origin – China.Disease outbreak news. 2020https://www.who.int/csr/don/12-january-2020-novel-coronavirus-china/en/Google Scholar). The 2019-nCoV is a β CoV of group 2B with at least 70% similarity in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV and has been named 2019-nCoV by the WHO. SARS is a zoonosis caused by SARS-CoV, which first emerged in China in 2002 before spreading to 29 countries/regions in 2003 through a travel-related global outbreak with 8,098 cases with a case fatality rate of 9.6%. Nosocomial transmission of SARS-CoV was common while the primary reservoir was putatively bats, although unproven as the actual source and the intermediary source was civet cats in the wet markets in Guangdong (Hui and Zumla, 2019Hui D.S.C. Zumla A. Severe acute respiratory syndrome: historical, epidemiologic, and clinical features.Infect Dis Clin North Am. 2019; 33: 869-889Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (357) Google Scholar). MERS is a novel lethal zoonotic disease of humans endemic to the Middle East, caused by MERS-CoV. Humans are thought to acquire MERS-CoV infection though contact with camels or camel products with a case fatality rate close to 35% while nosocomial transmission is also a hallmark (Azhar et al., 2019Azhar E.I. Hui D.S.C. Memish Z.A. Drosten C. Zumla A. The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).Infect Dis Clin North Am. 2019; 33: 891-905Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (176) Google Scholar). The recent outbreak of clusters of viral pneumonia due to a 2019-nCoV in the Wuhan market poses significant threats to international health and may be related to sale of bush meat derived from wild or captive sources at the seafood market. As of 10 Jan 2020, 41 patients have been diagnosed to have infection by the 2019-nCoV animals. The onset of illness of the 41 cases ranges from 8 December 2019 to 2 January 2020. Symptoms include fever (>90% cases), malaise, dry cough (80%), shortness of breath (20%) and respiratory distress (15%). The vital signs were stable in most of the cases while leucopenia and lymphopenia were common. Among the 41 cases, six patients have been discharged, seven patients are in critical care and one died, while the remaining patients are in stable condition. The fatal case involved a 61 year-old man with an abdominal tumour and cirrhosis who was admitted to a hospital due to respiratory failure and severe pneumonia. The diagnoses included severe pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, septic shock and multi-organ failure. The 2019-nCoV infection in Wuhan appears clinically milder than SARS or MERS overall in terms of severity, case fatality rate and transmissibility, which increases the risk of cases remaining undetected. There is currently no clear evidence of human to human transmission. At present, 739 close contacts including 419 healthcare workers are being quarantined and monitored for any development of symptoms (WHO, 2020bWHO Emergencies preparedness, response. Pneumonia of unknown origin – China.Disease outbreak news. 2020https://www.who.int/csr/don/12-january-2020-novel-coronavirus-china/en/Google Scholar, Center for Health Protection and HKSAR, 2020Center for Health Protection HKSAR Press Release.2020https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202001/11/P2020011100233.htmGoogle Scholar). No new cases have been detected in Wuhan since 3 January 2020. However the first case outside China was reported on 13th January 2020 in a Chinese tourist in Thailand with no epidemiological linkage to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market. The Chinese Health Authorities have carried out very appropriate and prompt response measures including active case finding, and retrospective investigations of the current cluster of patients which have been completed; The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market has been temporarily closed to carry out investigation, environmental sanitation and disinfection; Public risk communication activities have been carried out to improve public awareness and adoption of self-protection measures. Technical guidance on novel coronavirus has been developed and will continue to be updated as additional information becomes available. However, many questions about the new coronavirus remain. While it appears to be transmitted to humans via animals, the specific animals and other reservoirs need to be identified, the transmission route, the incubation period and characteristics of the susceptible population and survival rates. At present, there is however very limited clinical information of the 2019-nCoV infection and data are missing in regard to the age range, animal source of the virus, incubation period, epidemic curve, viral kinetics, transmission route, pathogenesis, autopsy findings and any treatment response to antivirals among the severe cases. Once there is any clue to the source of animals being responsible for this outbreak, global public health authorities should examine the trading route and source of movement of animals or products taken from the wild or captive conditions from other parts to Wuhan and consider appropriate trading restrictions or other control measures to limit. The rapid identification and containment of a novel coronavirus virus in a short period of time is a re-assuring and a commendable achievement by China’s public health authorities and reflects the increasing global capacity to detect, identify, define and contain new outbreaks. The latest analysis show that the Wuhan CoV cluster with the SARS CoV.10 (Novel coronavirus - China (01): (HU) WHO, phylogenetic tree ProMED, 2020ProMED “Novel coronavirus - China (01): (HU) WHO, phylogenetic tree”. Archive Number: 20200112.6885385. Accessed 13 Jan 2020. https://www.ecohealthalliance.org/2020/01/phylogenetic-analysis-shows-novel-wuhan-coronavirus-clusters-with-sars.Google Scholar). This outbreak brings back memories of the novel coronavirus outbreak in China, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in China in 2003, caused by a novel SARS-CoV-coronavirus (World Health Organization, 2019aWorld Health Organization SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome).2019https://www.who.int/ith/diseases/sars/en/Google Scholar). SARS-CoV rapidly spread from southern China in 2003 and infected more than 3000 people, killing 774 by 2004, and then disappeared – never to be seen again. However, The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) (World Health Organization, 2019bWorld Health Organization MERS situation update.2019http://applications.emro.who.int/docs/EMROPub_2019_MERA_apr_EN_23513.pdf?ua=1Google Scholar), a lethal zoonotic pathogen that was first identified in humans in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in 2012 continues to emerge and re-emerge through intermittent sporadic cases, community clusters and nosocomial outbreaks. Between 2012 and December 2019, a total of 2465 laboratory-confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infection, including 850 deaths (34.4% mortality) were reported from 27 countries to WHO, the majority of which were reported by KSA (2073 cases, 772 deaths. Whilst several important aspects of MERS-CoV epidemiology, virology, mode of transmission, pathogenesis, diagnosis, clinical features, have been defined, there remain many unanswered questions, including source, transmission and epidemic potential. The Wuhan outbreak is a stark reminder of the continuing threat of zoonotic diseases to global health security. More significant and better targeted investments are required for a more concerted and collaborative global effort, learning from experiences from all geographical regions, through a ‘ONE-HUMAN-ENIVRONMENTAL-ANIMAL-HEALTH’ global consortium to reduce the global threat of zoonotic diseases (Zumla et al., 2016Zumla A. Dar O. Kock R. et al.Taking forward a’ One Health’ approach for turning the tide against the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and other zoonotic pathogens with epidemic potential.Int J Infect Dis. 2016; 47: 5-9Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (68) Google Scholar). Sharing experience and learning from all geographical regions and across disciplines will be key to sustaining and further developing the progress being made. All authors have a specialist interest in emerging and re-emerging pathogens. FN, RK, OD, GI, TDMc, CD and AZ are members of the Pan-African Network on Emerging and Re-emerging Infections (PANDORA-ID-NET) funded by the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership the EU Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and Innovation. AZ is a National Institutes of Health Research senior investigator. All authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Author(s): Collaboration, The ATLAS; Aad, G; Abat, E; Abdallah, J; Abdelalim, AA; Abdesselam, A; Abdinov, O; Abi, BA; Abolins, M; Abramowicz, H; Acerbi, E; Acharya, BS; Achenbach, R; Ackers, M; Adams, DL; Adamyan, F; Addy, TN; Aderholz, M; Adorisio, C; Adragna, P; Aharrouche, M; Ahlen, SP; Ahles, F; Ahmad, A; Ahmed, H; Aielli, G; Åkesson, PF; Åkesson, TPA; Akimov, AV; Alam, SM; Albert, J; Albrand, S; Aleksa, M; Aleksandrov, IN; Aleppo, M; Alessandria, F; Alexa, C; Alexander, G; Alexopoulos, T; Alimonti, G; Aliyev, M; Allport, PP; Allwood-Spiers, SE; Aloisio, A; Alonso, J; Alves, R; Alviggi, MG; Amako, K; Amaral, P; Amaral, SP; Ambrosini, G; Ambrosio, G; Amelung, C; Ammosov, VV; Amorim, A; Amram, N; Anastopoulos, C; Anderson, B; Anderson, KJ; Anderssen, EC; Andreazza, A; Andrei, V; Andricek, L; Andrieux, M-L; Anduaga, XS; Anghinolfi, F; Antonaki, A; Antonelli, M; Antonelli, S; Apsimon, R; Arabidze, G; Aracena, I; Arai, Y; Arce, ATH; Archambault, JP; Arguin, J-F; Arik, E; Arik, M; Arms, KE; Armstrong, SR; Arnaud, M; Arnault, C; Artamonov, A; Asai, S; Ask, S

Bacillus subtilis is the best-characterized member of the Gram-positive bacteria. Its genome of 4,214,810 base pairs comprises 4,100 protein-coding genes. Of these protein-coding genes, 53% are represented once, while a quarter of the genome corresponds to several gene families that have been greatly expanded by gene duplication, the largest family containing 77 putative ATP-binding transport proteins. In addition, a large proportion of the genetic capacity is devoted to the utilization of a variety of carbon sources, including many plant-derived molecules. The identification of five signal peptidase genes, as well as several genes for components of the secretion apparatus, is important given the capacity of Bacillus strains to secrete large amounts of industrially important enzymes. Many of the genes are involved in the synthesis of secondary metabolites, including antibiotics, that are more typically associated with Streptomyces species. The genome contains at least ten prophages or remnants of prophages, indicating that bacteriophage infection has played an important evolutionary role in horizontal gene transfer, in particular in the propagation of bacterial pathogenesis.

The discovery of the enhancement of Raman scattering by molecules adsorbed on nanostructured metal surfaces is a landmark in the history of spectroscopic and analytical techniques. Significant experimental and theoretical effort has been directed toward understanding the surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) effect and demonstrating its potential in various types of ultrasensitive sensing applications in a wide variety of fields. In the 45 years since its discovery, SERS has blossomed into a rich area of research and technology, but additional efforts are still needed before it can be routinely used analytically and in commercial products. In this Review, prominent authors from around the world joined together to summarize the state of the art in understanding and using SERS and to predict what can be expected in the near future in terms of research, applications, and technological development. This Review is dedicated to SERS pioneer and our coauthor, the late Prof. Richard Van Duyne, whom we lost during the preparation of this article.

ADVERTISEMENT RETURN TO ISSUEPREVArticleNEXTStructural Changes Accompanying Intramolecular Electron Transfer: Focus on Twisted Intramolecular Charge-Transfer States and StructuresZbigniew R. Grabowski, Krystyna Rotkiewicz, and Wolfgang RettigView Author Information Institute of Physical Chemistry, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland, and Institute of Chemistry, Akademia Świȩtokrzyska, Chȩcińska 5, 25-020 Kielce, Poland Institute of Chemistry, Humboldt University, Brook-Taylor-Strasse 2, D-12489 Berlin, Germany Cite this: Chem. Rev. 2003, 103, 10, 3899–4032Publication Date (Web):September 17, 2003Publication History Received20 June 2001Published online17 September 2003Published inissue 1 October 2003https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/cr940745lhttps://doi.org/10.1021/cr940745lresearch-articleACS PublicationsCopyright © 2003 American Chemical SocietyRequest reuse permissionsArticle Views35683Altmetric-Citations3094LEARN ABOUT THESE METRICSArticle Views are the COUNTER-compliant sum of full text article downloads since November 2008 (both PDF and HTML) across all institutions and individuals. These metrics are regularly updated to reflect usage leading up to the last few days.Citations are the number of other articles citing this article, calculated by Crossref and updated daily. Find more information about Crossref citation counts.The Altmetric Attention Score is a quantitative measure of the attention that a research article has received online. Clicking on the donut icon will load a page at altmetric.com with additional details about the score and the social media presence for the given article. Find more information on the Altmetric Attention Score and how the score is calculated. Share Add toView InAdd Full Text with ReferenceAdd Description ExportRISCitationCitation and abstractCitation and referencesMore Options Share onFacebookTwitterWechatLinked InRedditEmail Other access optionsGet e-AlertscloseSupporting Info (1)»Supporting Information Supporting Information SUBJECTS:Fluorescence,Molecules,Polarity,Reaction products,Solvents Get e-Alerts

OBJECTIVE: To review and appraise the validity and usefulness of published and preprint reports of prediction models for diagnosing coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in patients with suspected infection, for prognosis of patients with covid-19, and for detecting people in the general population at increased risk of covid-19 infection or being admitted to hospital with the disease. DESIGN: Living systematic review and critical appraisal by the COVID-PRECISE (Precise Risk Estimation to optimise covid-19 Care for Infected or Suspected patients in diverse sEttings) group. DATA SOURCES: PubMed and Embase through Ovid, up to 1 July 2020, supplemented with arXiv, medRxiv, and bioRxiv up to 5 May 2020. STUDY SELECTION: Studies that developed or validated a multivariable covid-19 related prediction model. DATA EXTRACTION: At least two authors independently extracted data using the CHARMS (critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies) checklist; risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST (prediction model risk of bias assessment tool). RESULTS: 37 421 titles were screened, and 169 studies describing 232 prediction models were included. The review identified seven models for identifying people at risk in the general population; 118 diagnostic models for detecting covid-19 (75 were based on medical imaging, 10 to diagnose disease severity); and 107 prognostic models for predicting mortality risk, progression to severe disease, intensive care unit admission, ventilation, intubation, or length of hospital stay. The most frequent types of predictors included in the covid-19 prediction models are vital signs, age, comorbidities, and image features. Flu-like symptoms are frequently predictive in diagnostic models, while sex, C reactive protein, and lymphocyte counts are frequent prognostic factors. Reported C index estimates from the strongest form of validation available per model ranged from 0.71 to 0.99 in prediction models for the general population, from 0.65 to more than 0.99 in diagnostic models, and from 0.54 to 0.99 in prognostic models. All models were rated at high or unclear risk of bias, mostly because of non-representative selection of control patients, exclusion of patients who had not experienced the event of interest by the end of the study, high risk of model overfitting, and unclear reporting. Many models did not include a description of the target population (n=27, 12%) or care setting (n=75, 32%), and only 11 (5%) were externally validated by a calibration plot. The Jehi diagnostic model and the 4C mortality score were identified as promising models. CONCLUSION: Prediction models for covid-19 are quickly entering the academic literature to support medical decision making at a time when they are urgently needed. This review indicates that almost all pubished prediction models are poorly reported, and at high risk of bias such that their reported predictive performance is probably optimistic. However, we have identified two (one diagnostic and one prognostic) promising models that should soon be validated in multiple cohorts, preferably through collaborative efforts and data sharing to also allow an investigation of the stability and heterogeneity in their performance across populations and settings. Details on all reviewed models are publicly available at https://www.covprecise.org/. Methodological guidance as provided in this paper should be followed because unreliable predictions could cause more harm than benefit in guiding clinical decisions. Finally, prediction model authors should adhere to the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) reporting guideline. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: Protocol https://osf.io/ehc47/, registration https://osf.io/wy245. READERS' NOTE: This article is a living systematic review that will be updated to reflect emerging evidence. Updates may occur for up to two years from the date of original publication. This version is update 3 of the original article published on 7 April 2020 (BMJ 2020;369:m1328). Previous updates can be found as data supplements (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1328/related#datasupp). When citing this paper please consider adding the update number and date of access for clarity.

Abstract Global climate change impacts can already be tracked in many physical and biological systems; in particular, terrestrial ecosystems provide a consistent picture of observed changes. One of the preferred indicators is phenology, the science of natural recurring events, as their recorded dates provide a high‐temporal resolution of ongoing changes. Thus, numerous analyses have demonstrated an earlier onset of spring events for mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the growing season. However, published single‐site or single‐species studies are particularly open to suspicion of being biased towards predominantly reporting climate change‐induced impacts. No comprehensive study or meta‐analysis has so far examined the possible lack of evidence for changes or shifts at sites where no temperature change is observed. We used an enormous systematic phenological network data set of more than 125 000 observational series of 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries (1971–2000). Our results showed that 78% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting records advanced (30% significantly) and only 3% were significantly delayed, whereas the signal of leaf colouring/fall is ambiguous. We conclude that previously published results of phenological changes were not biased by reporting or publication predisposition: the average advance of spring/summer was 2.5 days decade −1 in Europe. Our analysis of 254 mean national time series undoubtedly demonstrates that species' phenology is responsive to temperature of the preceding months (mean advance of spring/summer by 2.5 days°C −1 , delay of leaf colouring and fall by 1.0 day°C −1 ). The pattern of observed change in spring efficiently matches measured national warming across 19 European countries (correlation coefficient r =−0.69, P <0.001).

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The summarizes much of particle physics and cosmology. Using data from previous editions, plus 2,717 new measurements from 869 papers, we list, evaluate, and average measured properties of gauge bosons and the recently discovered Higgs boson, leptons, quarks, mesons, and baryons. We summarize searches for hypothetical particles such as supersymmetric particles, heavy bosons, axions, dark photons, etc. Particle properties and search limits are listed in Summary Tables. We give numerous tables, figures, formulae, and reviews of topics such as Higgs Boson Physics, Supersymmetry, Grand Unified Theories, Neutrino Mixing, Dark Energy, Dark Matter, Cosmology, Particle Detectors, Colliders, Probability and Statistics. Most of the 120 reviews are updated, including many that are heavily revised. The is divided into two volumes. Volume 1 includes the Summary Tables and 97 review articles. Volume 2 consists of the Particle Listings and contains also 23 reviews that address specific aspects of the data presented in the Listings. The complete (both volumes) is published online on the website of the Particle Data Group () and in a journal. Volume 1 is available in print as the . A with the Summary Tables and essential tables, figures, and equations from selected review articles is available in print, as a web version optimized for use on phones, and as an Android app. The 2024 edition of the Review of Particle Physics should be cited as: S. Navas et al. (Particle Data Group), Phys. Rev. D 110, 030001 (2024) © 2024 2024

This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.

BACKGROUND: The multitargeted tyrosine kinase inhibitor sunitinib has shown activity against pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors in preclinical models and phase 1 and 2 trials. METHODS: We conducted a multinational, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial of sunitinib in patients with advanced, well-differentiated pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. All patients had Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors-defined disease progression documented within 12 months before baseline. A total of 171 patients were randomly assigned (in a 1:1 ratio) to receive best supportive care with either sunitinib at a dose of 37.5 mg per day or placebo. The primary end point was progression-free survival; secondary end points included the objective response rate, overall survival, and safety. RESULTS: The study was discontinued early, after the independent data and safety monitoring committee observed more serious adverse events and deaths in the placebo group as well as a difference in progression-free survival favoring sunitinib. Median progression-free survival was 11.4 months in the sunitinib group as compared with 5.5 months in the placebo group (hazard ratio for progression or death, 0.42; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26 to 0.66; P<0.001). A Cox proportional-hazards analysis of progression-free survival according to baseline characteristics favored sunitinib in all subgroups studied. The objective response rate was 9.3% in the sunitinib group versus 0% in the placebo group. At the data cutoff point, 9 deaths were reported in the sunitinib group (10%) versus 21 deaths in the placebo group (25%) (hazard ratio for death, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.19 to 0.89; P=0.02). The most frequent adverse events in the sunitinib group were diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, asthenia, and fatigue. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous daily administration of sunitinib at a dose of 37.5 mg improved progression-free survival, overall survival, and the objective response rate as compared with placebo among patients with advanced pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. (Funded by Pfizer; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00428597.).

Landsat 8, a NASA and USGS collaboration, acquires global moderate-resolution measurements of the Earth's terrestrial and polar regions in the visible, near-infrared, short wave, and thermal infrared. Landsat 8 extends the remarkable 40 year Landsat record and has enhanced capabilities including new spectral bands in the blue and cirrus cloud-detection portion of the spectrum, two thermal bands, improved sensor signal-to-noise performance and associated improvements in radiometric resolution, and an improved duty cycle that allows collection of a significantly greater number of images per day. This paper introduces the current (2012–2017) Landsat Science Team's efforts to establish an initial understanding of Landsat 8 capabilities and the steps ahead in support of priorities identified by the team. Preliminary evaluation of Landsat 8 capabilities and identification of new science and applications opportunities are described with respect to calibration and radiometric characterization; surface reflectance; surface albedo; surface temperature, evapotranspiration and drought; agriculture; land cover, condition, disturbance and change; fresh and coastal water; and snow and ice. Insights into the development of derived ‘higher-level’ Landsat products are provided in recognition of the growing need for consistently processed, moderate spatial resolution, large area, long-term terrestrial data records for resource management and for climate and global change studies. The paper concludes with future prospects, emphasizing the opportunities for land imaging constellations by combining Landsat data with data collected from other international sensing systems, and consideration of successor Landsat mission requirements.

OBJECTIVE: To develop new classification criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) jointly supported by the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) and the American College of Rheumatology (ACR). METHODS: This international initiative had four phases. 1) Evaluation of antinuclear antibody (ANA) as an entry criterion through systematic review and meta-regression of the literature and criteria generation through an international Delphi exercise, an early patient cohort, and a patient survey. 2) Criteria reduction by Delphi and nominal group technique exercises. 3) Criteria definition and weighting based on criterion performance and on results of a multi-criteria decision analysis. 4) Refinement of weights and threshold scores in a new derivation cohort of 1,001 subjects and validation compared with previous criteria in a new validation cohort of 1,270 subjects. RESULTS: The 2019 EULAR/ACR classification criteria for SLE include positive ANA at least once as obligatory entry criterion; followed by additive weighted criteria grouped in 7 clinical (constitutional, hematologic, neuropsychiatric, mucocutaneous, serosal, musculoskeletal, renal) and 3 immunologic (antiphospholipid antibodies, complement proteins, SLE-specific antibodies) domains, and weighted from 2 to 10. Patients accumulating ≥10 points are classified. In the validation cohort, the new criteria had a sensitivity of 96.1% and specificity of 93.4%, compared with 82.8% sensitivity and 93.4% specificity of the ACR 1997 and 96.7% sensitivity and 83.7% specificity of the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics 2012 criteria. CONCLUSION: These new classification criteria were developed using rigorous methodology with multidisciplinary and international input, and have excellent sensitivity and specificity. Use of ANA entry criterion, hierarchically clustered, and weighted criteria reflects current thinking about SLE and provides an improved foundation for SLE research.

The introduction motivates the remainder of the book via two specific examples of theorems from the early days of symplectic topology in which intersection theory plays a prominent role. We sketch closely analogous proofs of both theorems, emphasizing the way that intersection theory is used, but point out why the second theorem (on symplectic 4-manifolds that are standard near infinity) requires a nonobvious extension of homological intersection theory to punctured holomorphic curves. We then discuss informally some of the properties this theory will need to have and what kinds of subtle issues may arise.