John Brown University

This paper examines whether the Solow growth model is consistent with the international variation in the standard of living. It shows that an augmented Solow model that includes accumulation of human as well as physical capital provides an excellent description of the cross-country data. The paper also examines the implications of the Solow model for convergence in standards of living, that is, for whether poor countries tend to grow faster than rich countries. The evidence indicates that, holding population growth and capital accumulation constant, countries converge at about the rate the augmented Solow model predicts.

This paper develops a model based on Schumpeter's process of creative destruction. It departs from existing models of endogenous growth in emphasizing obsolescence of old technologies induced by the accumulation of knowledge and the resulting process or industrial innovations. This has both positive and normative implications for growth. In positive terms, the prospect of a high level of research in the future can deter research today by threatening the fruits of that research with rapid obsolescence. In normative terms, obsolescence creates a negative externality from innovations, and hence a tendency for laissez-faire economies to generate too many innovations, i.e too much growth. This business-stealing effect is partly compensated by the fact that innovations tend to be too small under laissez-faire. The model possesses a unique balanced growth equilibrium in which the log of GNP follows a random walk with drift. The size of the drift is the average growth rate of the economy and it is endogenous to the model ; in particular it depends on the size and likelihood of innovations resulting from research and also on the degree of market power available to an innovator.

Examples of coupled irreversible processes like the thermoelectric phenomena, the transference phenomena in electrolytes and heat conduction in an anisotropic medium are considered. For certain cases of such interaction reciprocal relations have been deduced by earlier writers, e.g., Thomson's theory of thermoelectric phenomena and Helmholtz' theory for the e.m.f. of electrolytic cells with liquid junction. These earlier derivations may be classed as quasi-thermodynamic; in fact, Thomson himself pointed out that his argument was incomplete, and that his relation ought to be established on an experimental basis. A general class of such relations will be derived by a new theoretical treatment from the principle of microscopic reversibility. (\textsection{}\textsection{}1-2.) The analogy with a chemical monomolecular triangle reaction is discussed; in this case a a simple kinetic consideration assuming microscopic reversibility yields a reciprocal relation that is not necessary for fulfilling the requirements of thermodynamics (\textsection{}3). Reciprocal relations for heat conduction in an anisotropic medium are derived from the assumption of microscopic reversibility, applied to fluctuations. (\textsection{}4.) The reciprocal relations can be expressed in terms of a potential, the dissipation-function. Lord Rayleigh's "principle of the least dissipation of energy" is generalized to include the case of anisotropic heat conduction. A further generalization is announced. (\textsection{}5.) The conditions for stationary flow are formulated; the connection with earlier quasi-thermodynamic theories is discussed. (\textsection{}6.) The principle of dynamical reversibility does not apply when (external) magnetic fields or Coriolis forces are present, and the reciprocal relations break down. (\textsection{}7.)

Many panel data sets encountered in macroeconomics, international economics, regional science, and finance are characterized by cross-sectional or “spatial” dependence. Standard techniques that fail to account for this dependence will result in inconsistently estimated standard errors. In this paper we present conditions under which a simple extension of common nonparametric covariance matrix estimation techniques yields standard error estimates that are robust to very general forms of spatial and temporal dependence as the time dimension becomes large. We illustrate the relevance of this approach using Monte Carlo simulations and a number of empirical examples.

A general reciprocal relation, applicable to transport processes such as the conduction of heat and electricity, and diffusion, is derived from the assumption of microscopic reversibility. In the derivation, certain average products of fluctuations are considered. As a consequence of the general relation $S=k logW$ between entropy and probability, different (coupled) irreversible processes must be compared in terms of entropy changes. If the displacement from thermodynamic equilibrium is described by a set of variables ${\ensuremath{\alpha}}_{1},\ensuremath{\cdots},{\ensuremath{\alpha}}_{n}$, and the relations between the rates ${\stackrel{\ifmmode \dot{}\else \.{}\fi{}}{\ensuremath{\alpha}}}_{1},\ensuremath{\cdots},{\stackrel{\ifmmode \dot{}\else \.{}\fi{}}{\ensuremath{\alpha}}}_{n}$ and the "forces" $\frac{\ensuremath{\partial}S}{d{\ensuremath{\alpha}}_{1}},\ensuremath{\cdots},\frac{\ensuremath{\partial}S}{d{\ensuremath{\alpha}}_{n}}$ are linear, there exists a quadratic dissipation-function, $2\ensuremath{\Phi}(\stackrel{\ifmmode \dot{}\else \.{}\fi{}}{\ensuremath{\alpha}},\stackrel{\ifmmode \dot{}\else \.{}\fi{}}{\ensuremath{\alpha}})\ensuremath{\equiv}\ensuremath{\Sigma}{\ensuremath{\rho}}_{j}{\stackrel{\ifmmode \dot{}\else \.{}\fi{}}{\ensuremath{\alpha}}}_{\mathrm{ij}}{\stackrel{\ifmmode \dot{}\else \.{}\fi{}}{\ensuremath{\alpha}}}_{i}=\frac{\mathrm{dS}}{\mathrm{dt}}=\stackrel{\ifmmode \dot{}\else \.{}\fi{}}{S}(\ensuremath{\alpha},\stackrel{\ifmmode \dot{}\else \.{}\fi{}}{\ensuremath{\alpha}})\ensuremath{\equiv}\ensuremath{\Sigma}(\frac{\ensuremath{\partial}S}{d{\ensuremath{\alpha}}_{j}}){\stackrel{\ifmmode \dot{}\else \.{}\fi{}}{\ensuremath{\alpha}}}_{j}$ (denoting definition by $\ensuremath{\equiv}$). The symmetry conditions demanded by microscopic reversibility are equivalent to the variation-principle $\stackrel{\ifmmode \dot{}\else \.{}\fi{}}{S}(\ensuremath{\alpha},\stackrel{\ifmmode \dot{}\else \.{}\fi{}}{\ensuremath{\alpha}})\ensuremath{-}\ensuremath{\Phi}(\stackrel{\ifmmode \dot{}\else \.{}\fi{}}{\ensuremath{\alpha}},\stackrel{\ifmmode \dot{}\else \.{}\fi{}}{\ensuremath{\alpha}})=\mathrm{maximum},$ which determines ${\stackrel{\ifmmode \dot{}\else \.{}\fi{}}{\ensuremath{\alpha}}}_{1},\ensuremath{\cdots},{\stackrel{\ifmmode \dot{}\else \.{}\fi{}}{\ensuremath{\alpha}}}_{n}$ for prescribed ${\ensuremath{\alpha}}_{1},\ensuremath{\cdots},{\ensuremath{\alpha}}_{n}$. The dissipation-function has a statistical significance similar to that of the entropy. External magnetic fields, and also Coriolis forces, destroy the symmetry in past and future; reciprocal relations involving reversal of the field are formulated.

Abstract. We present a new method for solving stochastic di®erential equations based on Galerkin projections and extensions of Wiener's polynomial chaos. Speci¯cally, we represent the stochastic processes with an optimum trial basis from the Askey family of orthogonal polynomials that reduces the dimensionality of the system and leads to exponential convergence of the error. Several continuous and discrete processes are treated, and numerical examples show substantial speed-up compared to Monte-Carlo simulations for low dimensional stochastic inputs.

Orientador: Antonio Carlos Quicoli

Self-esteem has become a household word. Teachers, parents, therapists, and others have focused efforts on boosting self-esteem, on the assumption that high self-esteem will cause many positive outcomes and benefits-an assumption that is critically evaluated in this review. Appraisal of the effects of self-esteem is complicated by several factors. Because many people with high self-esteem exaggerate their successes and good traits, we emphasize objective measures of outcomes. High self-esteem is also a heterogeneous category, encompassing people who frankly accept their good qualities along with narcissistic, defensive, and conceited individuals. The modest correlations between self-esteem and school performance do not indicate that high self-esteem leads to good performance. Instead, high self-esteem is partly the result of good school performance. Efforts to boost the self-esteem of pupils have not been shown to improve academic performance and may sometimes be counterproductive. Job performance in adults is sometimes related to self-esteem, although the correlations vary widely, and the direction of causality has not been established. Occupational success may boost self-esteem rather than the reverse. Alternatively, self-esteem may be helpful only in some job contexts. Laboratory studies have generally failed to find that self-esteem causes good task performance, with the important exception that high self-esteem facilitates persistence after failure. People high in self-esteem claim to be more likable and attractive, to have better relationships, and to make better impressions on others than people with low self-esteem, but objective measures disconfirm most of these beliefs. Narcissists are charming at first but tend to alienate others eventually. Self-esteem has not been shown to predict the quality or duration of relationships. High self-esteem makes people more willing to speak up in groups and to criticize the group's approach. Leadership does not stem directly from self-esteem, but self-esteem may have indirect effects. Relative to people with low self-esteem, those with high self-esteem show stronger in-group favoritism, which may increase prejudice and discrimination. Neither high nor low self-esteem is a direct cause of violence. Narcissism leads to increased aggression in retaliation for wounded pride. Low self-esteem may contribute to externalizing behavior and delinquency, although some studies have found that there are no effects or that the effect of self-esteem vanishes when other variables are controlled. The highest and lowest rates of cheating and bullying are found in different subcategories of high self-esteem. Self-esteem has a strong relation to happiness. Although the research has not clearly established causation, we are persuaded that high self-esteem does lead to greater happiness. Low self-esteem is more likely than high to lead to depression under some circumstances. Some studies support the buffer hypothesis, which is that high self-esteem mitigates the effects of stress, but other studies come to the opposite conclusion, indicating that the negative effects of low self-esteem are mainly felt in good times. Still others find that high self-esteem leads to happier outcomes regardless of stress or other circumstances. High self-esteem does not prevent children from smoking, drinking, taking drugs, or engaging in early sex. If anything, high self-esteem fosters experimentation, which may increase early sexual activity or drinking, but in general effects of self-esteem are negligible. One important exception is that high self-esteem reduces the chances of bulimia in females. Overall, the benefits of high self-esteem fall into two categories: enhanced initiative and pleasant feelings. We have not found evidence that boosting self-esteem (by therapeutic interventions or school programs) causes benefits. Our findings do not support continued widespread efforts to boost self-esteem in the hope that it will by itself foster improved outcomes. In view of the heterogeneity of high self-esteem, indiscriminate praise might just as easily promote narcissism, with its less desirable consequences. Instead, we recommend using praise to boost self-esteem as a reward for socially desirable behavior and self-improvement.

Scene categorization is a fundamental problem in computer vision. However, scene understanding research has been constrained by the limited scope of currently-used databases which do not capture the full variety of scene categories. Whereas standard databases for object categorization contain hundreds of different classes of objects, the largest available dataset of scene categories contains only 15 classes. In this paper we propose the extensive Scene UNderstanding (SUN) database that contains 899 categories and 130,519 images. We use 397 well-sampled categories to evaluate numerous state-of-the-art algorithms for scene recognition and establish new bounds of performance. We measure human scene classification performance on the SUN database and compare this with computational methods. Additionally, we study a finer-grained scene representation to detect scenes embedded inside of larger scenes.

BACKGROUND: Weight loss is recommended for overweight or obese patients with type 2 diabetes on the basis of short-term studies, but long-term effects on cardiovascular disease remain unknown. We examined whether an intensive lifestyle intervention for weight loss would decrease cardiovascular morbidity and mortality among such patients. METHODS: In 16 study centers in the United States, we randomly assigned 5145 overweight or obese patients with type 2 diabetes to participate in an intensive lifestyle intervention that promoted weight loss through decreased caloric intake and increased physical activity (intervention group) or to receive diabetes support and education (control group). The primary outcome was a composite of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for angina during a maximum follow-up of 13.5 years. RESULTS: The trial was stopped early on the basis of a futility analysis when the median follow-up was 9.6 years. Weight loss was greater in the intervention group than in the control group throughout the study (8.6% vs. 0.7% at 1 year; 6.0% vs. 3.5% at study end). The intensive lifestyle intervention also produced greater reductions in glycated hemoglobin and greater initial improvements in fitness and all cardiovascular risk factors, except for low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol levels. The primary outcome occurred in 403 patients in the intervention group and in 418 in the control group (1.83 and 1.92 events per 100 person-years, respectively; hazard ratio in the intervention group, 0.95; 95% confidence interval, 0.83 to 1.09; P=0.51). CONCLUSIONS: An intensive lifestyle intervention focusing on weight loss did not reduce the rate of cardiovascular events in overweight or obese adults with type 2 diabetes. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; Look AHEAD ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00017953.).

The summarizes much of particle physics and cosmology. Using data from previous editions, plus 2,717 new measurements from 869 papers, we list, evaluate, and average measured properties of gauge bosons and the recently discovered Higgs boson, leptons, quarks, mesons, and baryons. We summarize searches for hypothetical particles such as supersymmetric particles, heavy bosons, axions, dark photons, etc. Particle properties and search limits are listed in Summary Tables. We give numerous tables, figures, formulae, and reviews of topics such as Higgs Boson Physics, Supersymmetry, Grand Unified Theories, Neutrino Mixing, Dark Energy, Dark Matter, Cosmology, Particle Detectors, Colliders, Probability and Statistics. Most of the 120 reviews are updated, including many that are heavily revised. The is divided into two volumes. Volume 1 includes the Summary Tables and 97 review articles. Volume 2 consists of the Particle Listings and contains also 23 reviews that address specific aspects of the data presented in the Listings. The complete (both volumes) is published online on the website of the Particle Data Group () and in a journal. Volume 1 is available in print as the . A with the Summary Tables and essential tables, figures, and equations from selected review articles is available in print, as a web version optimized for use on phones, and as an Android app. The 2024 edition of the Review of Particle Physics should be cited as: S. Navas et al. (Particle Data Group), Phys. Rev. D 110, 030001 (2024) © 2024 2024

We develop a simple model of international trade with heterogeneous firms that is consistent with a number of stylized features of the data. In particular, the model predicts positive as well as zero trade flows across pairs of countries, and it allows the number of exporting firms to vary across destination countries. As a result, the impact of trade frictions on trade flows can be decomposed into the intensive and extensive margins, where the former refers to the trade volume per exporter and the latter refers to the number of exporters. This model yields a generalized gravity equation that accounts for the self-selection of firms into export markets and their impact on trade volumes. We then develop a two-stage estimation procedure that uses an equation for selection into trade partners in the first stage and a trade flow equation in the second. We implement this procedure parametrically, semiparametrically, and nonparametrically, showing that in all three cases the estimated effects of trade frictions are similar. Importantly, our method provides estimates of the intensive and extensive margins of trade. We show that traditional estimates are biased and that most of the bias is due not to selection but rather due to the omission of the extensive margin. Moreover, the effect of the number of exporting firms varies across country pairs according to their characteristics. This variation is large and particularly so for trade between developed and less developed countries and between pairs of less developed countries.

Spectral unmixing using hyperspectral data represents a significant step in the evolution of remote decompositional analysis that began with multispectral sensing. It is a consequence of collecting data in greater and greater quantities and the desire to extract more detailed information about the material composition of surfaces. Linear mixing is the key assumption that has permitted well-known algorithms to be adapted to the unmixing problem. In fact, the resemblance of the linear mixing model to system models in other areas has permitted a significant legacy of algorithms from a wide range of applications to be adapted to unmixing. However, it is still unclear whether the assumption of linearity is sufficient to model the mixing process in every application of interest. It is clear, however, that the applicability of models and techniques is highly dependent on the variety of circumstances and factors that give rise to mixed pixels. The outputs of spectral unmixing, endmember, and abundance estimates are important for identifying the material composition of mixtures.

This paper investigates the relationship between product market competition (PMC) and innovation. A Schumpeterian growth model is developed in which firms innovate ѳtep-by-stepҬ and where both technological leaders and their followers engage in R&D activities. In this model, competition may increase the incremental profit from innovating; on the other hand, competition may also reduce innovation incentives for laggards. This model generates four main predictions which we test empirically. First, the relationship between product market competition (PMC) and innovation is an inverted U-shape: the escape competition effect dominates for low initial levels of competition, whereas the Schumpeterian effect dominates at higher levels of competition. Second, the equilibrium degree of technological Ѯeck-and-neckness' among firms should decrease with PMC. Third, the higher the average degree of Ѯeck-and-neckness' in an industry, the steeper the inverted-U relationship between PMC and innovation in that industry. Fourth, firms may innovate more if subject to higher debt-pressure, especially at lower levels of PMC. We confront these four predictions with a new panel data set on UK firms' patenting activity at the US patenting office. The inverted U relationship, the neck and neck, and the debt pressure predictions are found to accord well with observed behavior in the data.

The present study (N = 86) sought to evaluate a laboratory-based behavioral measure of risk taking (the Balloon Analogue Risk Task; BART) and to test associations between this measure and self-report measures of risk-related constructs as well as self-reported real-world risk behaviors. The BART evidenced sound experimental properties, and riskiness on the BART was correlated with scores on measures of sensation seeking, impulsivity, and deficiencies in behavioral constraint. Also, riskiness on the BART was correlated with the self-reported occurrence of addictive, health, and safety risk behaviors, with the task accounting for variance in these behaviors beyond that accounted for by demographics and self-report measures of risk-related constructs. These results indicate that the BART may be a useful tool in the assessment of risk taking.

CONTEXT: Alcohol dependence treatment may include medications, behavioral therapies, or both. It is unknown how combining these treatments may impact their effectiveness, especially in the context of primary care and other nonspecialty settings. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the efficacy of medication, behavioral therapies, and their combinations for treatment of alcohol dependence and to evaluate placebo effect on overall outcome. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Randomized controlled trial conducted January 2001-January 2004 among 1383 recently alcohol-abstinent volunteers (median age, 44 years) from 11 US academic sites with Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, diagnoses of primary alcohol dependence. INTERVENTIONS: Eight groups of patients received medical management with 16 weeks of naltrexone (100 mg/d) or acamprosate (3 g/d), both, and/or both placebos, with or without a combined behavioral intervention (CBI). A ninth group received CBI only (no pills). Patients were also evaluated for up to 1 year after treatment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Percent days abstinent from alcohol and time to first heavy drinking day. RESULTS: All groups showed substantial reduction in drinking. During treatment, patients receiving naltrexone plus medical management (n = 302), CBI plus medical management and placebos (n = 305), or both naltrexone and CBI plus medical management (n = 309) had higher percent days abstinent (80.6, 79.2, and 77.1, respectively) than the 75.1 in those receiving placebos and medical management only (n = 305), a significant naltrexone x behavioral intervention interaction (P = .009). Naltrexone also reduced risk of a heavy drinking day (hazard ratio, 0.72; 97.5% CI, 0.53-0.98; P = .02) over time, most evident in those receiving medical management but not CBI. Acamprosate showed no significant effect on drinking vs placebo, either by itself or with any combination of naltrexone, CBI, or both. During treatment, those receiving CBI without pills or medical management (n = 157) had lower percent days abstinent (66.6) than those receiving placebo plus medical management alone (n = 153) or placebo plus medical management and CBI (n = 156) (73.8 and 79.8, respectively; P<.001). One year after treatment, these between-group effects were similar but no longer significant. CONCLUSIONS: Patients receiving medical management with naltrexone, CBI, or both fared better on drinking outcomes, whereas acamprosate showed no evidence of efficacy, with or without CBI. No combination produced better efficacy than naltrexone or CBI alone in the presence of medical management. Placebo pills and meeting with a health care professional had a positive effect above that of CBI during treatment. Naltrexone with medical management could be delivered in health care settings, thus serving alcohol-dependent patients who might otherwise not receive treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00006206.

This is the second paper in a series in which we construct and analyze a class of TVB (total variation bounded) discontinuous Galerkin finite element methods for solving conservation laws <inline-formula content-type="math/mathml"> <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="u Subscript t Baseline plus sigma-summation Underscript i equals 1 Overscript d Endscripts left-parenthesis f Subscript i Baseline left-parenthesis u right-parenthesis right-parenthesis Subscript x Sub Subscript i Baseline equals 0"> <mml:semantics> <mml:mrow> <mml:mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>u</mml:mi> <mml:mi>t</mml:mi> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mo movablelimits="false"> ∑ </mml:mo> <mml:mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mml:mi>i</mml:mi> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> <mml:mn>1</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mi>d</mml:mi> </mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mml:mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mml:msub> <mml:mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mml:mo stretchy="false">(</mml:mo> <mml:mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>f</mml:mi> <mml:mi>i</mml:mi> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> <mml:mo stretchy="false">(</mml:mo> <mml:mi>u</mml:mi> <mml:mo stretchy="false">)</mml:mo> <mml:mo stretchy="false">)</mml:mo> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mml:mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>x</mml:mi> <mml:mi>i</mml:mi> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:mrow> <mml:annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{u_t} + \sum \nolimits _{i = 1}^d {{{({f_i}(u))}_{{x_i}}} = 0}</mml:annotation> </mml:semantics> </mml:math> </inline-formula> . In this paper we present a general framework of the methods, up to any order of formal accuracy, using scalar one-dimensional initial value and initial-boundary problems as models. In these cases we prove TVBM (total variation bounded in the means), TVB, and convergence of the schemes. Numerical results using these methods are also given. Extensions to systems and/or higher dimensions will appear in future papers.

CONTEXT: The Women's Health Initiative trial of combined estrogen plus progestin was stopped early when overall health risks, including invasive breast cancer, exceeded benefits. Outstanding issues not previously addressed include characteristics of breast cancers observed among women using hormones and whether diagnosis may be influenced by hormone effects on mammography. OBJECTIVE: To determine the relationship among estrogen plus progestin use, breast cancer characteristics, and mammography recommendations. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Following a comprehensive breast cancer risk assessment, 16 608 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years with an intact uterus were randomly assigned to receive combined conjugated equine estrogens (0.625 mg/d) plus medroxyprogesterone acetate (2.5 mg/d) or placebo from 1993 to 1998 at 40 clinical centers. Screening mammography and clinical breast examinations were performed at baseline and yearly thereafter. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Breast cancer number and characteristics, and frequency of abnormal mammograms by estrogen plus progestin exposure. RESULTS: In intent-to-treat analyses, estrogen plus progestin increased total (245 vs 185 cases; hazard ratio [HR], 1.24; weighted P<.001) and invasive (199 vs 150 cases; HR, 1.24; weighted P =.003) breast cancers compared with placebo. The invasive breast cancers diagnosed in the estrogen plus progestin group were similar in histology and grade but were larger (mean [SD], 1.7 cm [1.1] vs 1.5 cm [0.9], respectively; P =.04) and were at more advanced stage (regional/metastatic 25.4% vs 16.0%, respectively; P =.04) compared with those diagnosed in the placebo group. After 1 year, the percentage of women with abnormal mammograms was substantially greater in the estrogen plus progestin group (716 [9.4%] of 7656) compared with placebo group (398 [5.4%] of 7310; P<.001), a pattern which continued for the study duration. CONCLUSIONS: Relatively short-term combined estrogen plus progestin use increases incident breast cancers, which are diagnosed at a more advanced stage compared with placebo use, and also substantially increases the percentage of women with abnormal mammograms. These results suggest estrogen plus progestin may stimulate breast cancer growth and hinder breast cancer diagnosis.

This book systematically investigates the past accomplishments and future agendas of contemporary comparative-historical analysis. Its core essays explore three major issues: the accumulation of knowledge in the field over the past three decades, the analytic tools used to study temporal process and historical patterns, and the methodologies available for making inferences and for building theories. The introductory and concluding essays situate the field as a whole by comparing it to alternative approaches within the social sciences. Comparative Historical Analysis in the Social Sciences will serve as an invaluable resource for scholars in the field, and it will represent a challenge to many other social scientists - especially those who have raised skeptical concerns about comparative-historical analysis in the past.

ABSTRACT The use of predetermined variables to represent public information and time‐variation has produced new insights about asset pricing models, but the literature on mutual fund performance has not exploited these insights. This paper advocates conditional performance evaluation in which the relevant expectations are conditioned on public information variables. We modify several classical performance measures to this end and find that the predetermined variables are both statistically and economically significant. Conditioning on public information controls for biases in traditional market timing models and makes the average performance of the mutual funds in our sample look better.