Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

We present the Met Office Hadley Centre's sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) data set, HadISST1, and the nighttime marine air temperature (NMAT) data set, HadMAT1. HadISST1 replaces the global sea ice and sea surface temperature (GISST) data sets and is a unique combination of monthly globally complete fields of SST and sea ice concentration on a 1° latitude‐longitude grid from 1871. The companion HadMAT1 runs monthly from 1856 on a 5° latitude‐longitude grid and incorporates new corrections for the effect on NMAT of increasing deck (and hence measurement) heights. HadISST1 and HadMAT1 temperatures are reconstructed using a two‐stage reduced‐space optimal interpolation procedure, followed by superposition of quality‐improved gridded observations onto the reconstructions to restore local detail. The sea ice fields are made more homogeneous by compensating satellite microwave‐based sea ice concentrations for the impact of surface melt effects on retrievals in the Arctic and for algorithm deficiencies in the Antarctic and by making the historical in situ concentrations consistent with the satellite data. SSTs near sea ice are estimated using statistical relationships between SST and sea ice concentration. HadISST1 compares well with other published analyses, capturing trends in global, hemispheric, and regional SST well, containing SST fields with more uniform variance through time and better month‐to‐month persistence than those in GISST. HadMAT1 is more consistent with SST and with collocated land surface air temperatures than previous NMAT data sets.

Abstract A complete suite of closed analytical expressions is presented for the surface displacements, strains, and tilts due to inclined shear and tensile faults in a half-space for both point and finite rectangular sources. These expressions are particularly compact and free from field singular points which are inherent in the previously stated expressions of certain cases. The expressions derived here represent powerful tools not only for the analysis of static field changes associated with earthquake occurrence but also for the modeling of deformation fields arising from fluid-driven crack sources.

1) Three indices of global climate have been monitored in the record of the past 450,000 years in Southern Hemisphere ocean-floor sediments. 2) Over the frequency range 10(-4) to 10(-5) cycle per year, climatic variance of these records is concentrated in three discrete spectral peaks at periods of 23,000, 42,000, and approximately 100,000 years. These peaks correspond to the dominant periods of the earth's solar orbit, and contain respectively about 10, 25, and 50 percent of the climatic variance. 3) The 42,000-year climatic component has the same period as variations in the obliquity of the earth's axis and retains a constant phase relationship with it. 4) The 23,000-year portion of the variance displays the same periods (about 23,000 and 19,000 years) as the quasi-periodic precession index. 5) The dominant, 100,000-year climatic [See table in the PDF file] component has an average period close to, and is in phase with, orbital eccentricity. Unlike the correlations between climate and the higher-frequency orbital variations (which can be explained on the assumption that the climate system responds linearly to orbital forcing), an explanation of the correlation between climate and eccentricity probably requires an assumption of nonlinearity. 6) It is concluded that changes in the earth's orbital geometry are the fundamental cause of the succession of Quaternary ice ages. 7) A model of future climate based on the observed orbital-climate relationships, but ignoring anthropogenic effects, predicts that the long-term trend over the next sevem thousand years is toward extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation.

Surface winds and surface ocean hydrography in the subpolar North Atlantic appear to have been influenced by variations in solar output through the entire Holocene. The evidence comes from a close correlation between inferred changes in production rates of the cosmogenic nuclides carbon-14 and beryllium-10 and centennial to millennial time scale changes in proxies of drift ice measured in deep-sea sediment cores. A solar forcing mechanism therefore may underlie at least the Holocene segment of the North Atlantic's "1500-year" cycle. The surface hydrographic changes may have affected production of North Atlantic Deep Water, potentially providing an additional mechanism for amplifying the solar signals and transmitting them globally.

Subducted sediments play an important role in arc magmatism and crust–mantle recycling. Models of continental growth, continental composition, convergent margin magmatism and mantle heterogeneity all require a better understanding of the mass and chemical fluxes associated with subducting sediments. We have evaluated subducting sediments on a global basis in order to better define their chemical systematics and to determine both regional and global average compositions. We then use these compositions to assess the importance of sediments to arc volcanism and crust–mantle recycling, and to re-evaluate the chemical composition of the continental crust. The large variations in the chemical composition of marine sediments are for the most part linked to the main lithological constituents. The alkali elements (K, Rb and Cs) and high field strength elements (Ti, Nb, Hf, Zr) are closely linked to the detrital phase in marine sediments; Th is largely detrital but may be enriched in the hydrogenous Fe–Mn component of sediments; REE patterns are largely continental, but abundances are closely linked to fish debris phosphate; U is mostly detrital, but also dependent on the supply and burial rate of organic matter; Ba is linked to both biogenic barite and hydrothermal components; Sr is linked to carbonate phases. Thus, the important geochemical tracers follow the lithology of the sediments. Sediment lithologies are controlled in turn by a small number of factors: proximity of detrital sources (volcanic and continental); biological productivity and preservation of carbonate and opal; and sedimentation rate. Because of the link with lithology and the wealth of lithological data routinely collected for ODP and DSDP drill cores, bulk geochemical averages can be calculated to better than 30% for most elements from fewer than ten chemical analyses for a typical drill core (100–1000 m). Combining the geochemical systematics with convergence rate and other parameters permits calculation of regional compositional fluxes for subducting sediment. These regional fluxes can be compared to the compositions of arc volcanics to asses the importance of sediment subduction to arc volcanism. For the 70% of the trenches worldwide where estimates can be made, the regional fluxes also provide the basis for a global subducting sediment (GLOSS) composition and flux. GLOSS is dominated by terrigenous material (76 wt% terrigenous, 7 wt% calcium carbonate, 10 wt% opal, 7 wt% mineral-bound H2O+), and therefore similar to upper continental crust (UCC) in composition. Exceptions include enrichment in Ba, Mn and the middle and heavy REE, and depletions in detrital elements diluted by biogenic material (alkalis, Th, Zr, Hf). Sr and Pb are identical in GLOSS and UCC as a result of a balance between dilution and enrichment by marine phases. GLOSS and the systematics of marine sediments provide an independent approach to the composition of the upper continental crust for detrital elements. Significant discrepancies of up to a factor of two exist between the marine sediment data and current upper crustal estimates for Cs, Nb, Ta and Ti. Suggested revisions to UCC include Cs (7.3 ppm), Nb (13.7 ppm), Ta (0.96 ppm) and TiO2 (0.76 wt%). These revisions affect recent bulk continental crust estimates for La/Nb and U/Nb, and lead to an even greater contrast between the continents and mantle for these important trace element ratios. GLOSS and the regional sediment data also provide new insights into the mantle sources of oceanic basalts. The classical geochemical distinction between `pelagic' and `terrigenous' sediment sources is not valid and needs to be replaced by a more comprehensive understanding of the compositional variations in complete sedimentary columns. In addition, isotopic arguments based on surface sediments alone can lead to erroneous conclusions. Specifically, the Nd/Hf ratio of GLOSS relaxes considerably the severe constraints on the amount of sediment recycling into the mantle based on earlier estimates from surface sediment compositions.

Evidence from North Atlantic deep sea cores reveals that abrupt shifts punctuated what is conventionally thought to have been a relatively stable Holocene climate. During each of these episodes, cool, ice-bearing waters from north of Iceland were advected as far south as the latitude of Britain. At about the same times, the atmospheric circulation above Greenland changed abruptly. Pacings of the Holocene events and of abrupt climate shifts during the last glaciation are statistically the same; together, they make up a series of climate shifts with a cyclicity close to 1470 ± 500 years. The Holocene events, therefore, appear to be the most recent manifestation of a pervasive millennial-scale climate cycle operating independently of the glacial-interglacial climate state. Amplification of the cycle during the last glaciation may have been linked to the North Atlantic's thermohaline circulation.

Abstract Using the concept of “orbital tuning”, a continuous, high-resolution deep-sea chronostratigraphy has been developed spanning the last 300,000 yr. The chronology is developed using a stacked oxygen-isotope stratigraphy and four different orbital tuning approaches, each of which is based upon a different assumption concerning the response of the orbital signal recorded in the data. Each approach yields a separate chronology. The error measured by the standard deviation about the average of these four results (which represents the “best” chronology) has an average magnitude of only 2500 yr. This small value indicates that the chronology produced is insensitive to the specific orbital tuning technique used. Excellent convergence between chronologies developed using each of five different paleoclimatological indicators (from a single core) is also obtained. The resultant chronology is also insensitive to the specific indicator used. The error associated with each tuning approach is estimated independently and propagated through to the average result. The resulting error estimate is independent of that associated with the degree of convergence and has an average magnitude of 3500 yr, in excellent agreement with the 2500-yr estimate. Transfer of the final chronology to the stacked record leads to an estimated error of ±1500 yr. Thus the final chronology has an average error of ±5000 yr.

We review Phanerozoic sea-level changes [543 million years ago (Ma) to the present] on various time scales and present a new sea-level record for the past 100 million years (My). Long-term sea level peaked at 100 +/- 50 meters during the Cretaceous, implying that ocean-crust production rates were much lower than previously inferred. Sea level mirrors oxygen isotope variations, reflecting ice-volume change on the 10(4)- to 10(6)-year scale, but a link between oxygen isotope and sea level on the 10(7)-year scale must be due to temperature changes that we attribute to tectonically controlled carbon dioxide variations. Sea-level change has influenced phytoplankton evolution, ocean chemistry, and the loci of carbonate, organic carbon, and siliciclastic sediment burial. Over the past 100 My, sea-level changes reflect global climate evolution from a time of ephemeral Antarctic ice sheets (100 to 33 Ma), through a time of large ice sheets primarily in Antarctica (33 to 2.5 Ma), to a world with large Antarctic and large, variable Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (2.5 Ma to the present).

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

Abstract Core Vema 28-238 preserves an excellent oxygen isotope and magnetic stratigraphy and is shown to contain undisturbed sediments deposited continuously through the past 870,000 yr. Detailed correlation with sequences described by Emiliani in the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean is demonstrated. The boundaries of 22 stages representing alternating times of high and low Northern Hemisphere ice volume are recognized and dated. The record is interpreted in terms of Northern Hemisphere ice accumulation, and is used to estimate the range of temperature variation in the Caribbean.

Observed atmospheric concentrations of CO(2) and data on the partial pressures of CO(2) in surface ocean waters are combined to identify globally significant sources and sinks of CO(2). The atmospheric data are compared with boundary layer concentrations calculated with the transport fields generated by a general circulation model (GCM) for specified source-sink distributions. In the model the observed north-south atmospheric concentration gradient can be maintained only if sinks for CO(2) are greater in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere. The observed differences between the partial pressure of CO(2) in the surface waters of the Northern Hemisphere and the atmosphere are too small for the oceans to be the major sink of fossil fuel CO(2). Therefore, a large amount of the CO(2) is apparently absorbed on the continents by terrestrial ecosystems.

Abstract. We present Bedmap2, a new suite of gridded products describing surface elevation, ice-thickness and the seafloor and subglacial bed elevation of the Antarctic south of 60° S. We derived these products using data from a variety of sources, including many substantial surveys completed since the original Bedmap compilation (Bedmap1) in 2001. In particular, the Bedmap2 ice thickness grid is made from 25 million measurements, over two orders of magnitude more than were used in Bedmap1. In most parts of Antarctica the subglacial landscape is visible in much greater detail than was previously available and the improved data-coverage has in many areas revealed the full scale of mountain ranges, valleys, basins and troughs, only fragments of which were previously indicated in local surveys. The derived statistics for Bedmap2 show that the volume of ice contained in the Antarctic ice sheet (27 million km3) and its potential contribution to sea-level rise (58 m) are similar to those of Bedmap1, but the mean thickness of the ice sheet is 4.6% greater, the mean depth of the bed beneath the grounded ice sheet is 72 m lower and the area of ice sheet grounded on bed below sea level is increased by 10%. The Bedmap2 compilation highlights several areas beneath the ice sheet where the bed elevation is substantially lower than the deepest bed indicated by Bedmap1. These products, along with grids of data coverage and uncertainty, provide new opportunities for detailed modelling of the past and future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheets.

Seafloor bathymetric data acquired with modern swath echo sounders provide coverage for only a small fraction of the global seabed yet are of high value for studies of the dynamic processes of seafloor volcanism, tectonics, mass wasting, and sediment transport that create and shape the undersea landscape. A new method for compilation of global seafloor bathymetry that preserves the native resolution of swath sonars is presented. The Global Multi‐Resolution Topography synthesis consists of a hierarchy of tiles with digital elevations and shaded relief imagery spanning nine magnification doublings from pole to pole ( http://www.marine‐geo.org/portals/gmrt ). The compilation is updated and accessible as surveys are contributed, edited, and added to the tiles. Access to the bathymetry tiles is via Web services and with WMS‐enabled client applications such as GeoMapApp®, Virtual Ocean, NASA World Wind®, and Google Earth®.

How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.

This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction The Spatial Structure of Climate And Climate Variability The Spatial Signature of The Nao Temporal Variability of The Nao Impacts of The Nao Mechanisms Conclusions and Challenges

Human pressures on the environment are changing spatially and temporally, with profound implications for the planet's biodiversity and human economies. Here we use recently available data on infrastructure, land cover and human access into natural areas to construct a globally standardized measure of the cumulative human footprint on the terrestrial environment at 1 km(2) resolution from 1993 to 2009. We note that while the human population has increased by 23% and the world economy has grown 153%, the human footprint has increased by just 9%. Still, 75% the planet's land surface is experiencing measurable human pressures. Moreover, pressures are perversely intense, widespread and rapidly intensifying in places with high biodiversity. Encouragingly, we discover decreases in environmental pressures in the wealthiest countries and those with strong control of corruption. Clearly the human footprint on Earth is changing, yet there are still opportunities for conservation gains.

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions andtheir redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biospherein a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carboncycle, support the development of climate policies, and project futureclimate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies toquantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and theiruncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energystatistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change(ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use changedata and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measureddirectly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annualchanges in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimatedwith global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-baseddata products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated withdynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance(BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and theestimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is ameasure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carboncycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, withfossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission(including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1(40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with aBIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low orsinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest anincrease in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %)globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, morethan 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the meanand trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistentlyestimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadalvariability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multipleapproaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in theestimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between thedifferent methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northernextratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on thestrength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data updatedocuments changes in the methods and data sets used in this new globalcarbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cyclecompared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented inthis work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

This revision of the classification of unicellular eukaryotes updates that of Levine et al. (1980) for the protozoa and expands it to include other protists. Whereas the previous revision was primarily to incorporate the results of ultrastructural studies, this revision incorporates results from both ultrastructural research since 1980 and molecular phylogenetic studies. We propose a scheme that is based on nameless ranked systematics. The vocabulary of the taxonomy is updated, particularly to clarify the naming of groups that have been repositioned. We recognize six clusters of eukaryotes that may represent the basic groupings similar to traditional "kingdoms." The multicellular lineages emerged from within monophyletic protist lineages: animals and fungi from Opisthokonta, plants from Archaeplastida, and brown algae from Stramenopiles.

We compare the volume flux divergence of Antarctic ice shelves in 2007 and 2008 with 1979 to 2010 surface accumulation and 2003 to 2008 thinning to determine their rates of melting and mass balance. Basal melt of 1325 ± 235 gigatons per year (Gt/year) exceeds a calving flux of 1089 ± 139 Gt/year, making ice-shelf melting the largest ablation process in Antarctica. The giant cold-cavity Ross, Filchner, and Ronne ice shelves covering two-thirds of the total ice-shelf area account for only 15% of net melting. Half of the meltwater comes from 10 small, warm-cavity Southeast Pacific ice shelves occupying 8% of the area. A similar high melt/area ratio is found for six East Antarctic ice shelves, implying undocumented strong ocean thermal forcing on their deep grounding lines.

A number of possible mechanisms have recently been proposed for driving the motions of the lithospheric plates, such as pushing from mid-ocean ridges, pulling by downgoing slabs, suction toward trenches, and coupling of the plates to flow in the mantle. We advance a new observational method of testing these theories of the driving mechanism. Our basic approach is to solve the inverse problem of determining the relative strength of the plausible driving forces, given the observed motions and geometries of the lithospheric plates. Since the inertia of the plates is negligible, each plate must be in dynamic equilibrium, so that the sum of the torques acting on a plate must be zero. Thus, our problem is to determine the relative sizes of the forces that minimize the components of net torque on each plate. The results indicate that the forces acting on the downgoing slab control the velocity of the oceanic plates and are an order of magnitude stronger than any other force. Namely, all the oceanic plates attached to substantial amounts of downgoing slabs move with a ' terminal velocity ' at which the gravitational body force pulling the slabs downward is nearly balanced with the resistance acting on the slab; regardless of the other features of the trailing horizontal part of the plates. The drag on the bottom of the plates which resist motion is stronger under the continents than under the oceans.