National Academy of Sciences

This essential reference for students and scholars in the input-output research and applications community has been fully revised and updated to reflect important developments in the field. Expanded coverage includes construction and application of multiregional and interregional models, including international models and their application to global economic issues such as climate change and international trade; structural decomposition and path analysis; linkages and key sector identification and hypothetical extraction analysis; the connection of national income and product accounts to input-output accounts; supply and use tables for commodity-by-industry accounting and models; social accounting matrices; non-survey estimation techniques; and energy and environmental applications. Input-Output Analysis is an ideal introduction to the subject for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in many scholarly fields, including economics, regional science, regional economics, city, regional and urban planning, environmental planning, public policy analysis and public management.

Human institutions--ways of organizing activities--affect the resilience of the environment. Locally evolved institutional arrangements governed by stable communities and buffered from outside forces have sustained resources successfully for centuries, although they often fail when rapid change occurs. Ideal conditions for governance are increasingly rare. Critical problems, such as transboundary pollution, tropical deforestation, and climate change, are at larger scales and involve nonlocal influences. Promising strategies for addressing these problems include dialogue among interested parties, officials, and scientists; complex, redundant, and layered institutions; a mix of institutional types; and designs that facilitate experimentation, learning, and change.

This article introduces a previously undescribed method progressively visualizing the evolution of a knowledge domain's cocitation network. The method first derives a sequence of cocitation networks from a series of equal-length time interval slices. These time-registered networks are merged and visualized in a panoramic view in such a way that intellectually significant articles can be identified based on their visually salient features. The method is applied to a cocitation study of the superstring field in theoretical physics. The study focuses on the search of articles that triggered two superstring revolutions. Visually salient nodes in the panoramic view are identified, and the nature of their intellectual contributions is validated by leading scientists in the field. The analysis has demonstrated that a search for intellectual turning points can be narrowed down to visually salient nodes in the visualized network. The method provides a promising way to simplify otherwise cognitively demanding tasks to a search for landmarks, pivots, and hubs.

According to classical concepts of physiologic control, healthy systems are self-regulated to reduce variability and maintain physiologic constancy. Contrary to the predictions of homeostasis, however, the output of a wide variety of systems, such as the normal human heartbeat, fluctuates in a complex manner, even under resting conditions. Scaling techniques adapted from statistical physics reveal the presence of long-range, power-law correlations, as part of multifractal cascades operating over a wide range of time scales. These scaling properties suggest that the nonlinear regulatory systems are operating far from equilibrium, and that maintaining constancy is not the goal of physiologic control. In contrast, for subjects at high risk of sudden death (including those with heart failure), fractal organization, along with certain nonlinear interactions, breaks down. Application of fractal analysis may provide new approaches to assessing cardiac risk and forecasting sudden cardiac death, as well as to monitoring the aging process. Similar approaches show promise in assessing other regulatory systems, such as human gait control in health and disease. Elucidating the fractal and nonlinear mechanisms involved in physiologic control and complex signaling networks is emerging as a major challenge in the postgenomic era.

Experiments on 2024-T3 aluminum alloy sheet are described which confirm the occurrence of fatigue crack closure under cyclic tensile loading. The results show that a fatigue crack can be closed at the crack tip for up to half of the loading amplitude, leaving this portion of the cycle ineffective in propagating the crack. An expression for the crack propagation rate in terms of effective stress amplitude is proposed. This expression is fitted to existing constant amplitude crack propagation data for 2024-T3 aluminum alloy. The parameters evaluated provide a better fit to the data than other empirical expressions available. Analysis of qualitative experiments on variable amplitude loading shows that the crack closure phenomenon could account for acceleration and retardation effects in crack propagation.

Nature is under siege. In the last 10,000 y the human population has grown from 1 million to 7.8 billion. Much of Earth’s arable lands are already in agriculture (1), millions of acres of tropical forest are cleared each year (2, 3), atmospheric CO2 levels are at their highest concentrations in more than 3 million y (4), and climates are erratically and steadily changing from pole to pole, triggering unprecedented droughts, fires, and floods across continents. Indeed, most biologists agree that the world has entered its sixth mass extinction event, the first since the end of the Cretaceous Period 66 million y ago, when more than 80% of all species, including the nonavian dinosaurs, perished. Ongoing losses have been clearly demonstrated for better-studied groups of organisms. Terrestrial vertebrate population sizes and ranges have contracted by one-third, and many mammals have experienced range declines of at least 80% over the last century (5). A 2019 assessment suggests that half of all amphibians are imperiled (2.5% of which have recently gone extinct) (6). Bird numbers across North America have fallen by 2.9 billion since 1970 (7). Prospects for the world’s coral reefs, beyond the middle of this century, could scarcely be more dire (8). A 2020 United Nations report estimated that more than a million species are in danger of extinction over the next few decades (9), but also see the more bridled assessments in refs. 10 and 11. Although a flurry of reports has drawn attention to declines in insect abundance, biomass, species richness, and range sizes (e.g., refs. 12⇓⇓⇓⇓⇓–18; for reviews see refs. 19 and 20), whether the rates of declines for insects are on par with or exceed those for other groups remains unknown. There are still too … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: david.wagner{at}uconn.edu. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1

The third catalog of high-energy gamma-ray sources detected by the EGRET telescope on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory includes data from 1991 April 22 to 1995 October 3 (Cycles 1, 2, 3, and 4 of the mission). In addition to including more data than the second EGRET catalog and its supplement, this catalog uses completely reprocessed data (to correct a number of mostly minimal errors and problems). The 271 sources (E greater than 100 MeV) in the catalog include the single 1991 solar flare bright enough to be detected as a source, the Large Magellanic Cloud, five pulsars, one probable radio galaxy detection (Cen A), and 66 high-confidence identifications of blazars (BL Lac objects, flat-spectrum radio quasars, or unidentified flat-spectrum radio sources). In addition, 27 lower-confidence potential blazar identifications are noted. Finally, the catalog contains 170 sources not yet identified firmly with known objects, although potential identifications have been suggested for a number of those. A figure is presented that gives approximate upper limits for gamma-ray sources at any point in the sky, as well as information about sources listed in the second catalog and its supplement which do not appear in this catalog.

ENVIRONMENTAL and occupational diseases encompass a wide range of human illness and are important causes of disability and death in modern American society.1 , 2 They include lung cancer and mesothelioma in persons exposed to asbestos, leukemia in persons exposed to benzene, asthma and chronic bronchitis in persons exposed to organic dusts, lung cancer in persons exposed to radon, chronic disorders of the nervous system in workers exposed to solvents, kidney failure and hypertension in persons chronically exposed to lead, heart disease in persons exposed to carbon disulfide, impairment of reproductive function in persons exposed to certain solvents and pesticides, and chronic . . .

Human security has and will continue to rely on Earth's diverse soil resources. Yet we have now exploited the planet's most productive soils. Soil erosion greatly exceeds rates of production in many agricultural regions. Nitrogen produced by fossil fuel and geological reservoirs of other fertilizers are headed toward possible scarcity, increased cost, and/or geopolitical conflict. Climate change is accelerating the microbial release of greenhouse gases from soil organic matter and will likely play a large role in our near-term climate future. In this Review, we highlight challenges facing Earth's soil resources in the coming century. The direct and indirect response of soils to past and future human activities will play a major role in human prosperity and survival.

The atmospheric chemistry of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in urban areas results in the formation of ‘photochemical smog’, including secondary organic aerosol (SOA). State‐of‐the‐art SOA models parameterize the results of simulation chamber experiments that bracket the conditions found in the polluted urban atmosphere. Here we show that in the real urban atmosphere reactive anthropogenic VOCs (AVOCs) produce much larger amounts of SOA than these models predict, even shortly after sunrise. Contrary to current belief, a significant fraction of the excess SOA is formed from first‐generation AVOC oxidation products. Global models deem AVOCs a very minor contributor to SOA compared to biogenic VOCs (BVOCs). If our results are extrapolated to other urban areas, AVOCs could be responsible for additional 3–25 Tg yr−1 SOA production globally, and cause up to −0.1 W m−2 additional top‐of‐the‐atmosphere radiative cooling.

We present the second catalog of high-energy γ-ray sources detected by the Large Area Telescope (LAT), the primary science instrument on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi) , derived from data taken during the first 24 months of the science phase of the mission, which began on 2008 August 4. Source detection is based on the average flux over the 24 month period. The second Fermi -LAT catalog (2FGL) includes source location regions, defined in terms of elliptical fits to the 95% confidence regions and spectral fits in terms of power-law, exponentially cutoff power-law, or log-normal forms. Also included are flux measurements in five energy bands and light curves on monthly intervals for each source. Twelve sources in the catalog are modeled as spatially extended. We provide a detailed comparison of the results from this catalog with those from the first Fermi -LAT catalog (1FGL). Although the diffuse Galactic and isotropic models used in the 2FGL analysis are improved compared to the 1FGL catalog, we attach caution flags to 162 of the sources to indicate possible confusion with residual imperfections in the diffuse model. The 2FGL catalog contains 1873 sources detected and characterized in the 100 MeV to 100 GeV range of which we consider 127 as being firmly identified and 1171 as being reliably associated with counterparts of known or likely γ-ray-producing source classes.

ABSTRACT We present a catalog of high-energy gamma-ray sources detected by the Large Area Telescope (LAT), the primary science instrument on theFermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi), during the first 11 months of the science phase of the mission, which began on 2008 August 4. The FirstFermi-LAT catalog (1FGL) contains 1451 sources detected and characterized in the 100 MeV to 100 GeV range. Source detection was based on the average flux over the 11 month period, and the threshold likelihood Test Statistic is 25, corresponding to a significance of just over 4σ. The 1FGL catalog includes source location regions, defined in terms of elliptical fits to the 95% confidence regions and power-law spectral fits as well as flux measurements in five energy bands for each source. In addition, monthly light curves are provided. Using a protocol defined before launch we have tested for several populations of gamma-ray sources among the sources in the catalog. For individual LAT-detected sources we provide firm identifications or plausible associations with sources in other astronomical catalogs. Identifications are based on correlated variability with counterparts at other wavelengths, or on spin or orbital periodicity. For the catalogs and association criteria that we have selected, 630 of the sources are unassociated. Care was taken to characterize the sensitivity of the results to the model of interstellar diffuse gamma-ray emission used to model the bright foreground, with the result that 161 sources at low Galactic latitudes and toward bright local interstellar clouds are flagged as having properties that are strongly dependent on the model or as potentially being due to incorrectly modeled structure in the Galactic diffuse emission.

is to deeply root robotics research in science while developing novel robotic platforms that will enable new scientific discoveries. Of our 10 grand challenges, the first 7 represent underpinning technologies that have a wider impact on all application areas of robotics. For the next two challenges, we have included social robotics and medical robotics as application-specific areas of development to highlight the substantial societal and health impacts that they will bring. Finally, the last challenge is related to responsible innovation and how ethics and security should be carefully considered as we develop the technology further.

The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

The LHCb detector is a forward spectrometer at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. The experiment is designed for precision measurements of CP violation and rare decays of beauty and charm hadrons. In this paper the performance of the various LHCb sub-detectors and the trigger system are described, using data taken from 2010 to 2012. It is shown that the design criteria of the experiment have been met. The excellent performance of the detector has allowed the LHCb collaboration to publish a wide range of physics results, demonstrating LHCb's unique role, both as a heavy flavour experiment and as a general purpose detector in the forward region.

Plasticity is a remarkable feature of the brain, allowing neuronal structure and function to accommodate to patterns of electrical activity. One component of these long-term changes is the activity-driven induction of new gene expression, which is required for both the long-lasting long-term potentiation of synaptic transmission associated with learning and memory, and the activity dependent survival events that help to shape and wire the brain during development. We have characterized molecular mechanisms by which neuronal membrane depolarization and subsequent calcium influx into the cytoplasm lead to the induction of new gene transcription. We have identified three points within this cascade of events where the specificity of genes induced by different types of stimuli can be regulated. By using the induction of the gene that encodes brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) as a model, we have found that the ability of a calcium influx to induce transcription of this gene is regulated by the route of calcium entry into the cell, by the pattern of phosphorylation induced on the transcription factor cAMP-response element (CRE) binding protein (CREB), and by the complement of active transcription factors recruited to the BDNF promoter. These results refine and expand the working model of activity-induced gene induction in the brain, and help to explain how different types of neuronal stimuli can activate distinct transcriptional responses.

e have conducted a detailed investigation of the broadband spectral properties of the γ-ray selected blazars of the Fermi LAT Bright AGN Sample (LBAS). By combining our accurately estimated Fermi γ-ray spectra with Swift, radio, infra-red, optical, and other hard X-ray/γ-ray data, collected within 3 months of the LBAS data taking period, we were able to assemble high-quality and quasi-simultaneous spectral energy distributions (SED) for 48 LBAS blazars. The SED of these γ-ray sources is similar to that of blazars discovered at other wavelengths, clearly showing, in the usual log ν-log νFᵥ representation, the typical broadband spectral signatures normally attributed to a combination of low-energy synchrotron radiation followed by inverse Compton emission of one or more components. We have used these SED to characterize the peak intensity of both the low- and the high-energy components. The results have been used to derive empirical relationships that estimate the position of the two peaks from the broadband colors (i.e., the radio to optical, αᵣₒ, and optical to X-ray, αₒₓ, spectral slopes) and from the γ-ray spectral index. Our data show that the synchrotron peak frequency (νᶳpeak) is positioned between 10¹²˙⁵ and 10¹⁴˙⁵ Hz in broad-lined flat spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) and between 10¹³ and 10¹⁷ Hz in featureless BL Lacertae objects. We find that the γ-ray spectral slope is strongly correlated with the synchrotron peak energy and with the X-ray spectral index, as expected at first order in synchrotron-inverse Compton scenarios. However, simple homogeneous, one-zone, synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) models cannot explain most of our SED, especially in the case of FSRQs and low energy peaked (LBL) BL Lacs. More complex models involving external Compton radiation or multiple SSC components are required to reproduce the overall SED and the observed spectral variability. While more than 50% of known radio bright high energy peaked (HBL) BL Lacs are detected in the LBAS sample, only less than 13% of known bright FSRQs and LBL BL Lacs are included. This suggests that the latter sources, as a class, may be much fainter γ-ray emitters than LBAS blazars, and could in fact radiate close to the expectations of simple SSC models. We categorized all our sources according to a new physical classification scheme based on the generally accepted paradigm for Active Galactic Nuclei and on the results of this SED study. Since the LAT detector is more sensitive to flat spectrum γ-ray sources, the correlation between νᶳpeak and γ-ray spectral index strongly favors the detection of high energy peaked blazars, thus explaining the Fermi overabundance of this type of sources compared to radio and EGRET samples. This selection effect is similar to that experienced in the soft X-ray band where HBL BL Lacs are the dominant type of blazars.

In 1863 the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) was established by federal charter to advise the government on scientific matters. Almost 100 years later, in 1971, the Academy created the Institute of Medicine within the NAS to focus on health-related problems and issues. Today the IOM has a program budget of about $13 million, which includes both private and government funds, and is regarded as a leading center for health policy research. After briefly explaining the structure and general goals of IOM, this article describes several new or anticipated projects as well as some recently completed reports that have a strong ethical component. [Bulger is director of IOM's Division of Health Sciences Policy].

The levels of four sets of pollutants (heavy-metals, artificial radionuclides, petroleum components, and halogenated hydrocarbons), have been measured in U.S. coastal waters, using bivalves as sentinel organisms. The strategies of carrying out this programme are outlined and the results from the first year's work are given. Varying degrees of pollution in U.S. coastal waters have been indicated by elevated levels of pollutants in the bivalves, which comprised certain species of mussels and oysters and were collected at over one hundred localities.

CHRISTOPHER P. HOWSON, TOMOHIKO HIYAMA, ERNST L. WYNDER; THE DECLINE IN GASTRIC CANCER: EPIDEMIOLOGY OF AN UNPLANNED TRIUMPH, Epidemiologic Reviews, Volume 8, I