National Climate Adaptation Science Center

Despite their limited spatial extent, freshwater ecosystems host remarkable biodiversity, including one-third of all vertebrate species. This biodiversity is declining dramatically: Globally, wetlands are vanishing three times faster than forests, and freshwater vertebrate populations have fallen more than twice as steeply as terrestrial or marine populations. Threats to freshwater biodiversity are well documented but coordinated action to reverse the decline is lacking. We present an Emergency Recovery Plan to bend the curve of freshwater biodiversity loss. Priority actions include accelerating implementation of environmental flows; improving water quality; protecting and restoring critical habitats; managing the exploitation of freshwater ecosystem resources, especially species and riverine aggregates; preventing and controlling nonnative species invasions; and safeguarding and restoring river connectivity. We recommend adjustments to targets and indicators for the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Sustainable Development Goals and roles for national and international state and nonstate actors.

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

Droughts of the twenty-first century are characterized by hotter temperatures, longer duration, and greater spatial extent, and are increasingly exacerbated by human demands for water. This situation increases the vulnerability of ecosystems to drought, including a rise in drought-driven tree mortality globally (Allen et al. 2015) and anticipated ecosystem transformations from one state to another—for example, forest to a shrubland (Jiang et al. 2013). When a drought drives changes within ecosystems, there can be a ripple effect through human communities that depend on those ecosystems for critical goods and services (Millar and Stephenson 2015). For example, the “Millennium Drought” (2002–10) in Australia caused unanticipated losses to key services provided by hydrological ecosystems in the Murray–Darling basin—including air quality regulation, waste treatment, erosion prevention, and recreation. The costs of these losses exceeded AUD $800 million, as resources were spent to replace these services and adapt to new drought-impacted ecosystems (Banerjee et al. 2013). Despite the high costs to both nature and people, current drought research, management, and policy perspectives often fail to evaluate how drought affects ecosystems and the “natural capital” they provide to human communities. Integrating these human and natural dimensions of drought is an essential step toward addressing the rising risk of drought in the twenty-first century

Though reported capture fisheries are dominated by marine production, inland fish and fisheries make substantial contributions to meeting the challenges faced by individuals, society, and the environment in a changing global landscape. Inland capture fisheries and aquaculture contribute over 40% to the world’s reported finfish production from less than 0.01% of the total volume of water on earth. These fisheries provide food for billions and livelihoods for millions of people worldwide. Herein, using supporting evidence from the literature, we review 10 reasons why inland fish and fisheries are important to the individual (food security, economic security, empowerment), to society (cultural services, recreational services, human health and well-being, knowledge transfer and capacity building), and to the environment (ecosystem function and biodiversity, as aquatic “canaries”, the “green food” movement). However, the current limitations to valuing the services provided by inland fish and fisheries make comparison with other water resource users extremely difficult. This list can serve to demonstrate the importance of inland fish and fisheries, a necessary first step to better incorporating them into agriculture, land-use, and water resource planning, where they are currently often underappreciated or ignored.

Despite substantial progress in understanding global biodiversity loss, major taxonomic and geographic knowledge gaps remain. Decision makers often rely on expert judgement to fill knowledge gaps, but are rarely able to engage with sufficiently large and diverse groups of specialists. To improve understanding of the perspectives of thousands of biodiversity experts worldwide, we conducted a survey and asked experts to focus on the taxa and freshwater, terrestrial, or marine ecosystem with which they are most familiar. We found several points of overwhelming consensus (for instance, multiple drivers of biodiversity loss interact synergistically) and important demographic and geographic differences in specialists’ perspectives and estimates. Experts from groups that are underrepresented in biodiversity science, including women and those from the Global South, recommended different priorities for conservation solutions, with less emphasis on acquiring new protected areas, and provided higher estimates of biodiversity loss and its impacts. This may in part be because they disproportionately study the most highly threatened taxa and habitats. Front Ecol Environ 2022;

Abstract Climate is a critical driver of many fish populations, assemblages, and aquatic communities. However, direct observational studies of climate change impacts on North American inland fishes are rare. In this synthesis, we (1) summarize climate trends that may influence North American inland fish populations and assemblages, (2) compile 31 peer-reviewed studies of documented climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages, and (3) highlight four case studies representing a variety of observed responses ranging from warmwater systems in the southwestern and southeastern United States to coldwater systems along the Pacific Coast and Canadian Shield. We conclude by identifying key data gaps and research needs to inform adaptive, ecosystem-based approaches to managing North American inland fishes and fisheries in a changing climate. El clima es un factor forzante clave para muchas poblaciones y ensambles de peces y de comunidades acuáticas. Sin embargo, son pocos los estudios observacionales acerca de los impactos del cambio climático en los peces de aguas continentales en Norte América. En esta síntesis (1) se resumen las tendencias climáticas que pueden influir en las poblaciones y ensambles de peces de aguas continentales en Norte América, (2) se compilan 31 trabajos arbitrados que documentan los efectos del cambio climático sobre las poblaciones y ensambles de peces de aguas continentales en Norte América y (3) se comentan cuatro casos de estudio que representan una variedad de respuestas observadas que van desde los sistemas de aguas cálidas en el suroeste y sureste de Los EE.UU., hasta los sistemas de aguas frías a lo largo de la costa del Pacífico y del escudo canadiense. Finalmente, se identifican huecos de información clave y necesidades de investigación tendientes a proporcionar información para diseñar enfoques ecosistémicos con el fin de manejar a los peces y a las pesquerías de aguas continentales en Norte América de cara a un clima cambiante. Le climat est un facteur critique pour de nombreuses populations de poissons, bancs et communautés aquatiques. Cependant, les études d'observation directe des impacts des changements climatiques sur les poissons continentaux d'Amérique du Nord sont rares. Dans cette synthèse, nous (1) résumons les tendances climatiques qui peuvent influencer les populations et communautés de poissons continentaux d'Amérique du Nord, (2) compilons 31 études examinées par des pairs sur les effets documentés du changement climatique sur les populations et communautés de poissons continentaux dl'Amérique du Nord, et (3) mettons l'accent sur quatre études de cas représentant une variété de réponses observées allant des systèmes d'eaux chaudes dans le sud-ouest et sud-est des États-Unis aux systèmes d'eau froide le long de la côte du Pacifique et du Bouclier canadien. Nous concluons en identifiant les lacunes en matière de données clés et les besoins de recherche pour informer sur les approches fondées sur les écosystèmes adaptatifs à la gestion des pêches et des poissons continentaux d'Amérique du Nord face au changement climatique.

BACKGROUND: Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to rising temperatures associated with climate change. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these expectations. Here, we evaluate the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically, changes in temperature and precipitation) on species' ranges, and assess whether expected range shifts are supported by the body of empirical evidence. METHODS: We conducted a Systematic Review, searching online databases and search engines in English. Studies were screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract review, followed by full-text review) to evaluate whether they met a list of eligibility criteria. Data coding, extraction, and study validity assessment was completed by a team of trained reviewers and each entry was validated by at least one secondary reviewer. We used logistic regression models to assess whether the direction of shift supported common range-shift expectations (i.e., shifts to higher latitudes and elevations, and deeper depths). We also estimated the magnitude of shifts for the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (i.e., km/decade). We accounted for methodological attributes at the study level as potential sources of variation. This allowed us to answer two questions: (1) are most species shifting in the direction we expect (i.e., each observation is assessed as support/fail to support our expectation); and (2) what is the average speed of range shifts? REVIEW FINDINGS: We found that less than half of all range-shift observations (46.60%) documented shifts towards higher latitudes, higher elevations, and greater marine depths, demonstrating significant variation in the empirical evidence for general range shift expectations. For the subset of studies looking at range shift rates, we found that species demonstrated significant average shifts towards higher latitudes (average = 11.8 km/dec) and higher elevations (average = 9 m/dec), although we failed to find significant evidence for shifts to greater marine depths. We found that methodological factors in individual range-shift studies had a significant impact on the reported direction and magnitude of shifts. Finally, we identified important variation across dimensions of range shifts (e.g., greater support for latitude and elevation shifts than depth), parameters (e.g., leading edge shifts faster than trailing edge for latitude), and taxonomic groups (e.g., faster latitudinal shifts for insects than plants). CONCLUSIONS: Despite growing evidence that species are shifting their ranges in response to climate change, substantial variation exists in the extent to which definitively empirical observations confirm these expectations. Even though on average, rates of shift show significant movement to higher elevations and latitudes for many taxa, most species are not shifting in expected directions. Variation across dimensions and parameters of range shifts, as well as differences across taxonomic groups and variation driven by methodological factors, should be considered when assessing overall confidence in range-shift hypotheses. In order for managers to effectively plan for species redistribution, we need to better account for and predict which species will shift and by how much. The dataset produced for this analysis can be used for future research to explore additional hypotheses to better understand species range shifts.

Assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change serves as the basis for climate‐adaptation planning and climate‐smart conservation, and typically involves an evaluation of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity ( AC ). AC is a species’ ability to cope with or adjust to changing climatic conditions, and is the least understood and most inconsistently applied of these three factors. We propose an attribute‐based framework for evaluating the AC of species, identifying two general classes of adaptive responses: “persist in place” and “shift in space”. Persist‐in‐place attributes enable species to survive in situ, whereas the shift‐in‐space response emphasizes attributes that facilitate tracking of suitable bioclimatic conditions. We provide guidance for assessing AC attributes and demonstrate the framework's application for species with disparate life histories. Results illustrate the broad utility of this generalized framework for informing adaptation planning and guiding species conservation in a rapidly changing climate.

Abstract Freshwater biodiversity, from fish to frogs and microbes to macrophytes, provides a vast array of services to people. Mounting concerns focus on the accelerating pace of biodiversity loss and declining ecological function within freshwater ecosystems that continue to threaten these natural benefits. Here, we catalog nine fundamental ecosystem services that the biotic components of indigenous freshwater biodiversity provide to people, organized into three categories: material (food; health and genetic resources; material goods), non‐material (culture; education and science; recreation), and regulating (catchment integrity; climate regulation; water purification and nutrient cycling). If freshwater biodiversity is protected, conserved, and restored in an integrated manner, as well as more broadly appreciated by humanity, it will continue to contribute to human well‐being and our sustainable future via this wide range of services and associated nature‐based solutions to our sustainable future. This article is categorized under: Human Water > Value of Water Water and Life > Nature of Freshwater Ecosystems Science of Water > Water and Environmental Change

At present, inland fisheries are not often a national or regional governance priority and as a result, inland capture fisheries are undervalued and largely overlooked. As such they are threatened in both developing and developed countries. Indeed, due to lack of reliable data, inland fisheries have never been part of any high profile global fisheries assessment and are notably absent from the Sustainable Development Goals. The general public and policy makers are largely ignorant of the plight of freshwater ecosystems and the fish they support, as well as the ecosystem services generated by inland fisheries. This ignorance is particularly salient given that the current emphasis on the food-water-energy nexus often fails to include the important role that inland fish and fisheries play in food security and supporting livelihoods in low-income food deficit countries. Developing countries in Africa and Asia produce about 11 million tonnes of inland fish annually, 90 % of the global total. The role of inland fisheries goes beyond just kilocalories; fish provide important micronutrients and essentially fatty acids. In some regions, inland recreational fisheries are important, generating much wealth and supporting livelihoods. The following three key recommendations are necessary for action if inland fisheries are to become a part of the food-water-energy discussion: invest in improved valuation and assessment methods, build better methods to effectively govern inland fisheries (requires capacity building and incentives), and develop approaches to managing waters across sectors and scales. Moreover, if inland fisheries are recognized as important to food security, livelihoods, and human well-being, they can be more easily incorporated in regional, national, and global policies and agreements on water issues. Through these approaches, inland fisheries can be better evaluated and be more fully recognized in broader water resource and aquatic ecosystem planning and decision-making frameworks, enhancing their value and sustainability for the future.

Abstract Recreational fishing is a popular activity in aquatic ecosystems around the globe using a variety of gears including rod and line and to a lesser extent handlines, spears, bow and arrow, traps and nets. Similar to the propensity to engage in voluntary catch‐and‐release, the propensity to harvest fishes strongly varies among cultures, locations, species and fisheries. There is a misconception that because recreational fishing happens during non‐work (i.e. leisure) time, the nutritional motivation is negligible; therefore, the role of recreational fishing in supporting nutrition (and thus food security) at regional, national or global scales is underappreciated. We consider the factors that influence whether fish will be harvested or released by examining the motives that underlie recreational fishing. Next, we provide an overview of the magnitude and role of recreational fishing harvest in supporting nutrition using regional case‐studies. Then, we address issues such as contaminants and parasites that constrain the ability of fish harvested by recreational fishers to be consumed. Although recreational fishing is foremost a leisure activity, the harvest of fish for personal consumption by recreational fishers has contributed and will continue to contribute to human nutrition by providing an accessible, affordable and generally highly sustainable food source, notwithstanding concerns about food safety and possibly overfishing. Attempts to better quantify the role of fish harvested by recreational fishers and the relative contribution to overall food security and personal nutrition will provide resource managers and policymakers the information needed to guide management activities and policy development.

Ecosystem transformation involves the emergence of persistent ecological or social–ecological systems that diverge, dramatically and irreversibly, from prior ecosystem structure and function. Such transformations are occurring at increasing rates across the planet in response to changes in climate, land use, and other factors. Consequently, a dynamic view of ecosystem processes that accommodates rapid, irreversible change will be critical for effectively conserving fish, wildlife, and other natural resources, and maintaining ecosystem services. However, managing ecosystems toward states with novel structure and function is an inherently unpredictable and difficult task. Managers navigating ecosystem transformation can benefit from considering broader objectives, beyond a traditional focus on resisting ecosystem change, by also considering whether accepting inevitable change or directing it along some desirable pathway is more feasible (that is, practical and appropriate) under some circumstances (the RAD framework). By explicitly acknowledging transformation and implementing an iterative RAD approach, natural resource managers can be deliberate and strategic in addressing profound ecosystem change.

Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem's carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon sequestration models fail to account for the role biodiversity plays in carbon storage. Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between 7.44-103.14 PgC (global sustainability scenario) and 10.87-145.95 PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals.

Abstract Global climate change is altering freshwater ecosystems and affecting fish populations and communities. Underpinning changes in fish distribution and assemblage-level responses to climate change are individual-level physiological constraints. In this review, we synthesize the mechanistic effects of climate change on neuroendocrine, cardiorespiratory, immune, osmoregulatory, and reproductive systems of freshwater and diadromous fishes. Observed climate change effects on physiological systems are varied and numerous, including exceedance of critical thermal tolerances, decreased cardiorespiratory performance, compromised immune function, and altered patterns of individual reproductive investment. However, effects vary widely among and within species because of species, population, and even sex-specific differences in sensitivity and resilience and because of habitat-specific variation in the magnitude of climate-related environmental change. Research on the interactive effects of climate change with other environmental stressors across a broader range of fish diversity is needed to further our understanding of climate change effects on fish physiology. El cambio climático global está alterando los ecosistemas de agua dulce y con ello se afectan las poblaciones y comunidades de peces. El fundamento de los cambios en la distribución de los peces y de las respuestas a nivel de ensambles ante el cambio climático tiene que ver con limitaciones fisiológicas individuales. En esta revisión se presenta una síntesis sobre los efectos mecánicos del cambio climático en los sistemas neuro-endócrino, cardio-respiratorio, inmunológico, osmorregulatorio y reproductivo de peces diádromos y de agua dulce. Los efectos observados del cambio climático en los sistemas fisiológicos son numerosos y variados, incluyen la excedencia de los límites de tolerancia térmica, reducción en el desempeño cardiorespiratorio, una función comprometida del sistema inmune y patrones alterados en cuanto a la inversión reproductiva individual. No obstante, los efectos varían ampliamente entre y dentro de las especies a causa de diferencias en cuanto a poblaciones, sensibilidad entre sexos y resiliencia, así como por variaciones en los hábitats particulares como respuesta a la magnitud del cambio ambiental. Con el objeto de entender mejor los efectos del cambio climático en la fisiología de los peces, se requieren investigaciones encaminadas a estudiar los efectos interactivos entre el cambio climático con otros estresores ambientales a lo largo de un rango más amplio de diversidad de peces. Le changement climatique mondial modifie les écosystèmes d'eau douce et affecte les populations et les communautés de poissons. Les changements sous-jacents dans la distribution des poissons et les réponses en matière de communautés apportées aux changements climatiques représentent des contraintes physiologiques au niveau individuel. Dans cette revue, nous synthétisons les effets mécanistes du changement climatique sur les systèmes neuroendocriniens, cardiorespiratoires, immunitaires, osmorégulateur et reproductifs des poissons d'eau douce et des diadromes. Les effets du changement climatique observés sur les systèmes physiologiques sont nombreux et variés, y compris le dépassement des tolérances thermiques critiques, une baisse des performances cardiorespiratoires, la fonction immunitaire compromise, et la modification des modes d'investissement dans la reproduction individuelle. Cependant, les effets varient considérablement entre et au sein des espèces en raison des espèces, de la population, et des différences, même selon le sexe, de sensibilité et de résilience, ainsi qu'en raison de la variation spécifique de l'habitat dans l'ampleur des changements environnementaux liés au climat. La recherche sur les effets interactifs des changements climatiques avec d'autres facteurs de stress environnementaux à travers une gamme plus large de la diversité des poissons est nécessaire pour approfondir notre compréhension des effets des changements climatiques sur la physiologie des poissons.

The relationship between traditional metrics of research impact (e.g., number of citations) and alternative metrics (altmetrics) such as Twitter activity are of great interest, but remain imprecisely quantified. We used generalized linear mixed modeling to estimate the relative effects of Twitter activity, journal impact factor, and time since publication on Web of Science citation rates of 1,599 primary research articles from 20 ecology journals published from 2012-2014. We found a strong positive relationship between Twitter activity (i.e., the number of unique tweets about an article) and number of citations. Twitter activity was a more important predictor of citation rates than 5-year journal impact factor. Moreover, Twitter activity was not driven by journal impact factor; the 'highest-impact' journals were not necessarily the most discussed online. The effect of Twitter activity was only about a fifth as strong as time since publication; accounting for this confounding factor was critical for estimating the true effects of Twitter use. Articles in impactful journals can become heavily cited, but articles in journals with lower impact factors can generate considerable Twitter activity and also become heavily cited. Authors may benefit from establishing a strong social media presence, but should not expect research to become highly cited solely through social media promotion. Our research demonstrates that altmetrics and traditional metrics can be closely related, but not identical. We suggest that both altmetrics and traditional citation rates can be useful metrics of research impact.

This paper provides a synthesis of the recent literature describing how global biodiversity is being affected by climate change and is projected to respond in the future. Current studies reinforce earlier findings of major climate‐change‐related impacts on biological systems and document new, more subtle after‐effects. For example, many species are shifting their distributions and phenologies at faster rates than were recorded just a few years ago; however, responses are not uniform across species. Shifts have been idiosyncratic and in some cases counterintuitive, promoting new community compositions and altering biotic interactions. Although genetic diversity enhances species' potential to respond to variable conditions, climate change may outpace intrinsic adaptive capacities and increase the relative vulnerabilities of many organisms. Developing effective adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation will not only require flexible decision‐making and management approaches that account for uncertainties in climate projections and ecological responses but will also necessitate coordinated monitoring efforts.

Abstract Ecosystem transformation can be defined as the emergence of a self-organizing, self-sustaining, ecological or social–ecological system that deviates from prior ecosystem structure and function. These transformations are occurring across the globe; consequently, a static view of ecosystem processes is likely no longer sufficient for managing fish, wildlife, and other species. We present a framework that encompasses three strategies for fish and wildlife managers dealing with ecosystems vulnerable to transformation. Specifically, managers can resist change and strive to maintain existing ecosystem composition, structure, and function; accept transformation when it is not feasible to resist change or when changes are deemed socially acceptable; or direct change to a future ecosystem configuration that would yield desirable outcomes. Choice of a particular option likely hinges on anticipating future change, while also acknowledging that temporal and spatial scales, recent history and current state of the system, and magnitude of change can factor into the decision. This suite of management strategies can be implemented using a structured approach of learning and adapting as ecosystems change.

ABSTRACT Climate change is an increasing concern for wildlife managers across the United States and Canada. Because climate change may alter populations and harvest dynamics of key species in the region, midwestern states have identified the effects of climate change on ungulates as a priority research area. We conducted a literature review of projected climate change in the Midwest and the potential effects on white‐tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and moose ( Alces alces ). Warmer temperatures and decreasing snowpack in the region favor survival of white‐tailed deer. In contrast, moose may become physiologically stressed in response to warming, and increasing deer populations spreading disease will exacerbate the problem. Although there is some uncertainty about exactly how the climate will change, and to what degree, robust projections suggest that deer populations will increase in response to climate change and moose populations will decrease. Managers can begin preparing for these changes by proactively creating management plans that take this into account. Published 2019. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society

Abstract Intensifying global change is propelling many ecosystems toward irreversible transformations. Natural resource managers face the complex task of conserving these important resources under unprecedented conditions and expanding uncertainty. As once familiar ecological conditions disappear, traditional management approaches that assume the future will reflect the past are becoming increasingly untenable. In the present article, we place adaptive management within the resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework to assist informed risk taking for transforming ecosystems. This approach empowers managers to use familiar techniques associated with adaptive management in the unfamiliar territory of ecosystem transformation. By providing a common lexicon, it gives decision makers agency to revisit objectives, consider new system trajectories, and discuss RAD strategies in relation to current system state and direction of change. Operationalizing RAD adaptive management requires periodic review and update of management actions and objectives; monitoring, experimentation, and pilot studies; and bet hedging to better identify and tolerate associated risks.

Novel forms of drought are emerging globally, due to climate change, shifting teleconnection patterns, expanding human water use, and a history of human influence on the environment that increases the probability of transformational ecological impacts. These costly ecological impacts cascade to human communities, and understanding this changing drought landscape is one of today's grand challenges. By using a modified horizon-scanning approach that integrated scientists, managers, and decision-makers, we identified the emerging issues in ecological drought that represent key challenges to timely and effective responses. Here we review the themes that most urgently need attention, including novel drought conditions, the potential for transformational drought impacts, and the need for anticipatory drought management. This horizon scan and review provides a roadmap to facilitate the research and management innovations that will support forward-looking, co-developed approaches to reduce the risk of drought to our socio-ecological systems during the 21st century. We used a modified horizon-scanning approach that brought together scientists, managers, and decision-makers to identify the emerging issues around the ecological impacts from drought that represent key challenges to effective response. We found three broad themes within ecological drought that need attention, including novel drought conditions, transformational drought impacts, and anticipatory drought management. This horizon scan and integrated review provides a roadmap to inspire the needed research and management innovations to reduce the risk of 21st century droughts.