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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Research output, citation impact, and the most-cited recent papers from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (United States). Aggregated across the NobleBlocks index of 300M+ scholarly works.

Total works
33.1K
Citations
3.6M
h-index
647
i10-index
34.1K
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Administración Nacional Oceánica y AtmosféricaNational Oceanic & Atmospheric AdministrationNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Oceanographic and Atmospheric AdministrationU.S. DOC National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationU.S. Department of Commerce Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationU.S. Department of Commerce. National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationU.S. Dept. of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationU.S. National Oceanic & Atmospheric AdministrationU.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Top-cited papers from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization
Veronika Eyring, Sandrine Bony, Gerald A. Meehl, C. A. Senior +3 more
2016· Geoscientific model development11.8Kdoi:10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016

Abstract. By coordinating the design and distribution of global climate model simulations of the past, current, and future climate, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has become one of the foundational elements of climate science. However, the need to address an ever-expanding range of scientific questions arising from more and more research communities has made it necessary to revise the organization of CMIP. After a long and wide community consultation, a new and more federated structure has been put in place. It consists of three major elements: (1) a handful of common experiments, the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) and CMIP historical simulations (1850–near present) that will maintain continuity and help document basic characteristics of models across different phases of CMIP; (2) common standards, coordination, infrastructure, and documentation that will facilitate the distribution of model outputs and the characterization of the model ensemble; and (3) an ensemble of CMIP-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) that will be specific to a particular phase of CMIP (now CMIP6) and that will build on the DECK and CMIP historical simulations to address a large range of specific questions and fill the scientific gaps of the previous CMIP phases. The DECK and CMIP historical simulations, together with the use of CMIP data standards, will be the entry cards for models participating in CMIP. Participation in CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs by individual modelling groups will be at their own discretion and will depend on their scientific interests and priorities. With the Grand Science Challenges of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) as its scientific backdrop, CMIP6 will address three broad questions: – How does the Earth system respond to forcing? – What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? – How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? This CMIP6 overview paper presents the background and rationale for the new structure of CMIP, provides a detailed description of the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations, and includes a brief introduction to the 21 CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs.

The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations—a new environmental record for monitoring extremes
Chris Funk, Pete Peterson, M. F. Landsfeld, Diego Pedreros +4 more
2015· Scientific Data5.9Kdoi:10.1038/sdata.2015.66

The Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset builds on previous approaches to 'smart' interpolation techniques and high resolution, long period of record precipitation estimates based on infrared Cold Cloud Duration (CCD) observations. The algorithm i) is built around a 0.05° climatology that incorporates satellite information to represent sparsely gauged locations, ii) incorporates daily, pentadal, and monthly 1981-present 0.05° CCD-based precipitation estimates, iii) blends station data to produce a preliminary information product with a latency of about 2 days and a final product with an average latency of about 3 weeks, and iv) uses a novel blending procedure incorporating the spatial correlation structure of CCD-estimates to assign interpolation weights. We present the CHIRPS algorithm, global and regional validation results, and show how CHIRPS can be used to quantify the hydrologic impacts of decreasing precipitation and rising air temperatures in the Greater Horn of Africa. Using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, we show that CHIRPS can support effective hydrologic forecasts and trend analyses in southeastern Ethiopia.

The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present)
R. F. Adler, George J. Huffman, A. T. C. Chang, Ralph Ferraro +4 more
2003· Journal of Hydrometeorology5.5Kdoi:10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:tvgpcp>2.0.co;2

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version-2 Monthly Precipitation Analysis is described. This globally complete, monthly analysis of surface precipitation at 2.5 latitude 2.5 longitude resolution is available from January 1979 to the present. It is a merged analysis that incorporates precipitation estimates from low-orbit satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit satellite infrared data, and surface rain gauge observations. The merging approach utilizes the higher accuracy of the low-orbit microwave observations to calibrate, or adjust, the more frequent geosynchronous infrared observations. The dataset is extended back into the premicrowave era (before mid-1987) by using infrared-only observations calibrated to the microwave-based analysis of the later years. The combined satellite-based product is adjusted by the rain gauge analysis. The dataset archive also contains the individual input fields, a combined satellite estimate, and error estimates for each field. This monthly analysis is the foundation for the GPCP suite of products, including those at finer temporal resolution. The 23-yr GPCP climatology is characterized, along with time and space variations of precipitation.

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
Suranjana Saha, Shrinivas Moorthi, Hua‐Lu Pan, Xingren Wu +4 more
2010· Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society5.3Kdoi:10.1175/2010bams3001.1

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was completed for the 31-yr period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean–land surface–sea ice system to provide the best estimate of the state of these coupled domains over this period. The current CFSR will be extended as an operational, real-time product into the future. New features of the CFSR include 1) coupling of the atmosphere and ocean during the generation of the 6-h guess field, 2) an interactive sea ice model, and 3) assimilation of satellite radiances by the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) scheme over the entire period. The CFSR global atmosphere resolution is ~38 km (T382) with 64 levels extending from the surface to 0.26 hPa. The global ocean's latitudinal spacing is 0.25° at the equator, extending to a global 0.5° beyond the tropics, with 40 levels to a depth of 4737 m. The global land surface model has four soil levels and the global sea ice model has three layers. The CFSR atmospheric model has observed variations in carbon dioxide (CO2) over the 1979–2009 period, together with changes in aerosols and other trace gases and solar variations. Most available in situ and satellite observations were included in the CFSR. Satellite observations were used in radiance form, rather than retrieved values, and were bias corrected with “spin up” runs at full resolution, taking into account variable CO2 concentrations. This procedure enabled the smooth transitions of the climate record resulting from evolutionary changes in the satellite observing system. CFSR atmospheric, oceanic, and land surface output products are available at an hourly time resolution and a horizontal resolution of 0.5° latitude × 0.5° longitude. The CFSR data will be distributed by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NCAR. This reanalysis will serve many purposes, including providing the basis for most of the NCEP Climate Prediction Center's operational climate products by defining the mean states of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and sea ice over the next 30-yr climate normal (1981–2010); providing initial conditions for historical forecasts that are required to calibrate operational NCEP climate forecasts (from week 2 to 9 months); and providing estimates and diagnoses of the Earth's climate state over the satellite data period for community climate research. Preliminary analysis of the CFSR output indicates a product that is far superior in most respects to the reanalysis of the mid-1990s. The previous NCEP–NCAR reanalyses have been among the most used NCEP products in history; there is every reason to believe the CFSR will supersede these older products both in scope and quality, because it is higher in time and space resolution, covers the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land, and was executed in a coupled mode with a more modern data assimilation system and forecast model.

Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming
Isaac M. Held, Brian J. Soden
2006· Journal of Climate5.0Kdoi:10.1175/jcli3990.1

Abstract Using the climate change experiments generated for the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this study examines some aspects of the changes in the hydrological cycle that are robust across the models. These responses include the decrease in convective mass fluxes, the increase in horizontal moisture transport, the associated enhancement of the pattern of evaporation minus precipitation and its temporal variance, and the decrease in the horizontal sensible heat transport in the extratropics. A surprising finding is that a robust decrease in extratropical sensible heat transport is found only in the equilibrium climate response, as estimated in slab ocean responses to the doubling of CO2, and not in transient climate change scenarios. All of these robust responses are consequences of the increase in lower-tropospheric water vapor.

Evolution of Organic Aerosols in the Atmosphere
J. L. Jiménez, Manjula R. Canagaratna, Neil M. Donahue, Andrê S. H. Prévôt +4 more
2009· Science4.8Kdoi:10.1126/science.1180353

Organic aerosol (OA) particles affect climate forcing and human health, but their sources and evolution remain poorly characterized. We present a unifying model framework describing the atmospheric evolution of OA that is constrained by high-time-resolution measurements of its composition, volatility, and oxidation state. OA and OA precursor gases evolve by becoming increasingly oxidized, less volatile, and more hygroscopic, leading to the formation of oxygenated organic aerosol (OOA), with concentrations comparable to those of sulfate aerosol throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Our model framework captures the dynamic aging behavior observed in both the atmosphere and laboratory: It can serve as a basis for improving parameterizations in regional and global models.

Nitrous Oxide (N <sub>2</sub> O): The Dominant Ozone-Depleting Substance Emitted in the 21st Century
A. R. Ravishankara, J. S. Daniel, R. W. Portmann
2009· Science4.6Kdoi:10.1126/science.1176985

Unwelcome Dominance Stratospheric ozone is depleted by many different chemicals; most prominently, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) responsible for causing the Antarctic ozone hole. Nitrous oxide is also an ozone-depleting substance that has natural sources in addition to anthropogenic ones. Moreover, unlike CFCs, its use and emission are not regulated by the Montreal Protocol, which has helped to reverse the rate of growth of the ozone hole. Surprisingly, Ravishankara et al. (p. 123 , published online 27 August; see the Perspective by Wuebbles ) now show that nitrous oxide is the single greatest ozone-depleting substance that, if its emissions are not controlled, is expected to remain the dominant ozone-depleting substance throughout the 21st century. Reducing nitrous oxide emissions would thus enhance the rate of recovery of the ozone hole and reduce the anthropogenic forcing of climate.

Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation
Lisa V. Alexander, Xiaodan Zhang, T. C. Peterson, John Caesar +4 more
2006· Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres4.4Kdoi:10.1029/2005jd006290

A suite of climate change indices derived from daily temperature and precipitation data, with a primary focus on extreme events, were computed and analyzed. By setting an exact formula for each index and using specially designed software, analyses done in different countries have been combined seamlessly. This has enabled the presentation of the most up‐to‐date and comprehensive global picture of trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices using results from a number of workshops held in data‐sparse regions and high‐quality station data supplied by numerous scientists world wide. Seasonal and annual indices for the period 1951–2003 were gridded. Trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes associated with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature. Over 70% of the global land area sampled showed a significant decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a significant increase in the annual occurrence of warm nights. Some regions experienced a more than doubling of these indices. This implies a positive shift in the distribution of daily minimum temperature throughout the globe. Daily maximum temperature indices showed similar changes but with smaller magnitudes. Precipitation changes showed a widespread and significant increase, but the changes are much less spatially coherent compared with temperature change. Probability distributions of indices derived from approximately 200 temperature and 600 precipitation stations, with near‐complete data for 1901–2003 and covering a very large region of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (and parts of Australia for precipitation) were analyzed for the periods 1901–1950, 1951–1978 and 1979–2003. Results indicate a significant warming throughout the 20th century. Differences in temperature indices distributions are particularly pronounced between the most recent two periods and for those indices related to minimum temperature. An analysis of those indices for which seasonal time series are available shows that these changes occur for all seasons although they are generally least pronounced for September to November. Precipitation indices show a tendency toward wetter conditions throughout the 20th century.

Ocean Acidification: The Other CO<sub>2</sub>Problem
Scott C. Doney, Victoria J. Fabry, Richard A. Feely, Joan A. Kleypas
2008· Annual Review of Marine Science4.2Kdoi:10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163834

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily from human fossil fuel combustion, reduces ocean pH and causes wholesale shifts in seawater carbonate chemistry. The process of ocean acidification is well documented in field data, and the rate will accelerate over this century unless future CO2 emissions are curbed dramatically. Acidification alters seawater chemical speciation and biogeochemical cycles of many elements and compounds. One well-known effect is the lowering of calcium carbonate saturation states, which impacts shell-forming marine organisms from plankton to benthic molluscs, echinoderms, and corals. Many calcifying species exhibit reduced calcification and growth rates in laboratory experiments under high-CO2 conditions. Ocean acidification also causes an increase in carbon fixation rates in some photosynthetic organisms (both calcifying and noncalcifying). The potential for marine organisms to adapt to increasing CO2 and broader implications for ocean ecosystems are not well known; both are high priorities for future research. Although ocean pH has varied in the geological past, paleo-events may be only imperfect analogs to current conditions.

Accelerating loss of seagrasses across the globe threatens coastal ecosystems
Michelle Waycott, Carlos M. Duarte, Tim J. B. Carruthers, Robert J. Orth +4 more
2009· Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences3.9Kdoi:10.1073/pnas.0905620106

Coastal ecosystems and the services they provide are adversely affected by a wide variety of human activities. In particular, seagrass meadows are negatively affected by impacts accruing from the billion or more people who live within 50 km of them. Seagrass meadows provide important ecosystem services, including an estimated $1.9 trillion per year in the form of nutrient cycling; an order of magnitude enhancement of coral reef fish productivity; a habitat for thousands of fish, bird, and invertebrate species; and a major food source for endangered dugong, manatee, and green turtle. Although individual impacts from coastal development, degraded water quality, and climate change have been documented, there has been no quantitative global assessment of seagrass loss until now. Our comprehensive global assessment of 215 studies found that seagrasses have been disappearing at a rate of 110 km(2) yr(-1) since 1980 and that 29% of the known areal extent has disappeared since seagrass areas were initially recorded in 1879. Furthermore, rates of decline have accelerated from a median of 0.9% yr(-1) before 1940 to 7% yr(-1) since 1990. Seagrass loss rates are comparable to those reported for mangroves, coral reefs, and tropical rainforests and place seagrass meadows among the most threatened ecosystems on earth.

Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols
Robert J. Charlson, Stephen E. Schwartz, J.M. Hales, R. D. Cess +3 more
1992· Science3.8Kdoi:10.1126/science.255.5043.423

Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of short-wavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be –1 to –2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.

Classification, Seasonality and Persistence of Low-Frequency Atmospheric Circulation Patterns
Anthony G. Barnston, Robert E. Livezey
1987· Monthly Weather Review3.8Kdoi:10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:csapol>2.0.co;2

Orthogonally rotated principle component analysis (RPCA) of Northern Hemisphere 1-month mean 700 mb heights is used to identify and describe the seasonality and persistence of the major modes of interannual variability. The analysis is detailed and comprehensive, in that 1) a high resolution, approximately equal-area 358-point grid is used for the virtually maximum possible 35-year period of record, 2) a positive bias in the NMC data base in the early 1950s in the subtropics is largely eliminated for the first time, and 3) homogeneous, separate analyses of each month of the year are carried out, detailing the mouth-to-month changes in the dominant circulation patterns. Winter results are similar to those of other recent RPCA and teleconnection studies except that some less obvious patterns are identified and further detail of the better-known patterns is provided. Two north-south dipole patterns are found over the Pacific Ocean (West Pacific Oscillation and East Pacific pattern) and over the Atlantic Ocean (North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic pattern); two uncorrelated phases of 3-center, approximately east–west wave trains are found over the Eurasian continent (Eurasian Type 1 and Eurasian Type 2 patterns) and North American continent (Pacific/North American and Tropical/Northern Hemisphere patterns) and a Siberian north–south dipole emerges (Northern Asian pattern). The strongest summer pattern is also the strongest winter pattern—the North Atlantic Oscillation, which systematically contracts northward in summer and expands southward in winter, being the only pattern found for every month of the year. Another strong summer pattern, named Subtropical Zonal, is a north–south dipole of great zonal extent at low latitudes. A single-center Asian summer pattern is also found. Two other regular patterns are found during transition seasons. An evaluation of the intermonthly and interseasonal persistence of the patterns shows that many of the strong winter patterns have statistically significant persistence in the middle of their active periods, and the Subtropical Zonal summer pattern shows considerable interannual, as well as intermonthly and interseasonal persistence. The robustness of the RPCA results is examined through consistency with results of other studies and of adjacent month solutions within this study, and by replicating the results using 3-month and 10-day means of 700 mb height. (Results using 10-day means point the way to use of a larger sample without noticeably obscuring the low-frequency signal.) Moreover, the analyses are repeatedly rerun withholding different sets of years from the record, and results are objectively compared with those using the full 35-year record. The conclusion from all considerations is that the RPCA method provides a physically meaningful, as well as statistically stable product with the simplicity of teleconnection patterns but with pattern choice and depiction superior to those of the teleconnection method.

The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300
Malte Meinshausen, Steven J. Smith, Katherine Calvin, J. S. Daniel +4 more
2011· Climatic Change3.8Kdoi:10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z

We present the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs). These projections include all major anthropogenic greenhouse gases and are a result of a multi-year effort to produce new scenarios for climate change research. We combine a suite of atmospheric concentration observations and emissions estimates for greenhouse gases (GHGs) through the historical period (1750–2005) with harmonized emissions projected by four different Integrated Assessment Models for 2005–2100. As concentrations are somewhat dependent on the future climate itself (due to climate feedbacks in the carbon and other gas cycles), we emulate median response characteristics of models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report using the reduced-complexity carbon cycle climate model MAGICC6. Projected ‘best-estimate’ global-mean surface temperature increases (using inter alia a climate sensitivity of 3°C) range from 1.5°C by 2100 for the lowest of the four RCPs, called both RCP3-PD and RCP2.6, to 4.5°C for the highest one, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels. Beyond 2100, we present the ECPs that are simple extensions of the RCPs, based on the assumption of either smoothly stabilizing concentrations or constant emissions: For example, the lower RCP2.6 pathway represents a strong mitigation scenario and is extended by assuming constant emissions after 2100 (including net negative CO2 emissions), leading to CO2 concentrations returning to 360 ppm by 2300. We also present the GHG concentrations for one supplementary extension, which illustrates the stringent emissions implications of attempting to go back to ECP4.5 concentration levels by 2250 after emissions during the 21st century followed the higher RCP6 scenario. Corresponding radiative forcing values are presented for the RCP and ECPs.

Global and Regional Scale Precipitation Patterns Associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation
Chester F. Ropelewski, M. S. Halpert
1987· Monthly Weather Review3.7Kdoi:10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1606:garspp>2.0.co;2

We investigate the “typical” global and large-scale regional precipitation patterns that are associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Monthly precipitation time series from over 1700 stations are analyzed using an empirical method designed to identify regions of the globe that have precipitation variations associated with ENSO. Monthly mean ranked precipitation composites are computed over idealized 2-year ENSO episodes for all stations that include data for at least five ENSOs. The amplitude and phase of the Arm harmonic fitted to the 24-month composite values are plotted in the form of a vector for each station. When plotted on a global map, these vectors reveal both the regions of spatially coherent ENSO-related precipitation and the phase of this signal in relation to the evolution of the composite episode. Time cries of precipitation for the coherent regions identified in the harmonic vector map are examined to determine the magnitudes of the ENSO-related precipitation and the percentages of the time the identified relationship actually occurred in conjunction with ENSO episodes. This study expands previous results by placing the regional precipitation relationships into a global framework and by providing a consistent methodology for the definition of the geographical regions and the temporal phase of ENSO-related precipitation. In addition to the Pacific Ocean basin where precipitation patterns could be directly related to the ENSO, several other regions, which showed consistent ENSO-related precipitation, were identified. Specifically, four regions in Australia, two regions each in North America South America, the Indian subcontinent, and Africa and one region in Central America were all found to have coherent ENSO-related precipitation. In most of thew regions, the “season” of ENSO-related precipitation was found to be in phase with the normal annual precipitation cycle. Time series of area-averaged precipitation for the appropriate “seasons” show departures consistent with the composites occurring for at 1east 80% of the ENSO events in almost every region. The analysis further indicates that variations in precipitation related to ENSO occur as early as April of the composite episode through May of the following year.

Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being
GT Pecl, Miguel B. Araújo, Johann D. Bell, Julia L. Blanchard +4 more
2017· Science3.5Kdoi:10.1126/science.aai9214

Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals.

North American Regional Reanalysis
Fedor Mesinger, Geoff DiMego, Eugenia Kalnay, Kenneth E. Mitchell +4 more
2006· Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society3.5Kdoi:10.1175/bams-87-3-343

In 1997, during the late stages of production of NCEP–NCAR Global Reanalysis (GR), exploration of a regional reanalysis project was suggested by the GR project's Advisory Committee, “particularly if the RDAS [Regional Data Assimilation System] is significantly better than the global reanalysis at capturing the regional hydrological cycle, the diurnal cycle and other important features of weather and climate variability.” Following a 6-yr development and production effort, NCEP's North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) project was completed in 2004, and data are now available to the scientific community. Along with the use of the NCEP Eta model and its Data Assimilation System (at 32-km–45-layer resolution with 3-hourly output), the hallmarks of the NARR are the incorporation of hourly assimilation of precipitation, which leverages a comprehensive precipitation analysis effort, the use of a recent version of the Noah land surface model, and the use of numerous other datasets that are additional or improved compared to the GR. Following the practice applied to NCEP's GR, the 25-yr NARR retrospective production period (1979–2003) is augmented by the construction and daily execution of a system for near-real-time continuation of the NARR, known as the Regional Climate Data Assimilation System (R-CDAS). Highlights of the NARR results are presented: precipitation over the continental United States (CONUS), which is seen to be very near the ingested analyzed precipitation; fits of tropospheric temperatures and winds to rawinsonde observations; and fits of 2-m temperatures and 10-m winds to surface station observations. The aforementioned fits are compared to those of the NCEP–Department of Energy (DOE) Global Reanalysis (GR2). Not only have the expectations cited above been fully met, but very substantial improvements in the accuracy of temperatures and winds compared to that of GR2 are achieved throughout the troposphere. Finally, the numerous datasets produced are outlined and information is provided on the data archiving and present data availability.

CMORPH: A Method that Produces Global Precipitation Estimates from Passive Microwave and Infrared Data at High Spatial and Temporal Resolution
Robert J. Joyce, John E. Janowiak, Phillip A. Arkin, Pingping Xie
2004· Journal of Hydrometeorology3.2Kdoi:10.1175/1525-7541(2004)005<0487:camtpg>2.0.co;2

A new technique is presented in which half-hourly global precipitation estimates derived from passive microwave satellite scans are propagated by motion vectors derived from geostationary satellite infrared data. The Climate Prediction Center morphing method (CMORPH) uses motion vectors derived from half-hourly interval geostationary satellite IR imagery to propagate the relatively high quality precipitation estimates derived from passive microwave data. In addition, the shape and intensity of the precipitation features are modified (morphed) during the time between microwave sensor scans by performing a time-weighted linear interpolation. This process yields spatially and temporally complete microwave-derived precipitation analyses, independent of the infrared temperature field. CMORPH showed substantial improvements over both simple averaging of the microwave estimates and over techniques that blend microwave and infrared information but that derive estimates of precipitation from infrared data when passive microwave information is unavailable. In particular, CMORPH outperforms these blended techniques in terms of daily spatial correlation with a validating rain gauge analysis over Australia by an average of 0.14, 0.27, 0.26, 0.22, and 0.20 for April, May, June–August, September, and October 2003, respectively. CMORPH also yields higher equitable threat scores over Australia for the same periods by an average of 0.11, 0.14, 0.13, 0.14, and 0.13. Over the United States for June–August, September, and October 2003, spatial correlation was higher for CMORPH relative to the average of the same techniques by an average of 0.10, 0.13, and 0.13, respectively, and equitable threat scores were higher by an average of 0.06, 0.09, and 0.10, respectively.

Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions
Susan Solomon, Gian‐Kasper Plattner, Reto Knutti, Pierre Friedlingstein
2009· Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences3.2Kdoi:10.1073/pnas.0812721106

The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450-600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the "dust bowl" era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4-1.0 m if 21st century CO(2) concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6-1.9 m for peak CO(2) concentrations exceeding approximately 1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer.

The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 1. Model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements
Guo‐Yue Niu, Zong‐Liang Yang, Kenneth E. Mitchell, Fei Chen +4 more
2011· Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres3.0Kdoi:10.1029/2010jd015139

This first paper of the two-part series describes the objectives of the community efforts in improving the Noah land surface model (LSM), documents, through mathematical formulations, the augmented conceptual realism in biophysical and hydrological processes, and introduces a framework for multiple options to parameterize selected processes (Noah-MP). The Noah-MP's performance is evaluated at various local sites using high temporal frequency data sets, and results show the advantages of using multiple optional schemes to interpret the differences in modeling simulations. The second paper focuses on ensemble evaluations with long-term regional (basin) and global scale data sets. The enhanced conceptual realism includes (1) the vegetation canopy energy balance, (2) the layered snowpack, (3) frozen soil and infiltration, (4) soil moisture-groundwater interaction and related runoff production, and (5) vegetation phenology. Sample local-scale validations are conducted over the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE) site, the W3 catchment of Sleepers River, Vermont, and a French snow observation site. Noah-MP shows apparent improvements in reproducing surface fluxes, skin temperature over dry periods, snow water equivalent (SWE), snow depth, and runoff over Noah LSM version 3.0. Noah-MP improves the SWE simulations due to more accurate simulations of the diurnal variations of the snow skin temperature, which is critical for computing available energy for melting. Noah-MP also improves the simulation of runoff peaks and timing by introducing a more permeable frozen soil and more accurate simulation of snowmelt. We also demonstrate that Noah-MP is an effective research tool by which modeling results for a given process can be interpreted through multiple optional parameterization schemes in the same model framework. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

A Global Crisis for Seagrass Ecosystems
Robert J. Orth, Tim J. B. Carruthers, William C. Dennison, Carlos M. Duarte +4 more
2006· BioScience3.0Kdoi:10.1641/0006-3568(2006)56[987:agcfse]2.0.co;2

ABSTRACT Seagrasses, marine flowering plants, have a long evolutionary history but are now challenged with rapid environmental changes as a result of coastal human population pressures. Seagrasses provide key ecological services, including organic carbon production and export, nutrient cycling, sediment stabilization, enhanced biodiversity, and trophic transfers to adjacent habitats in tropical and temperate regions. They also serve as “coastal canaries,” global biological sentinels of increasing anthropogenic influences in coastal ecosystems, with large-scale losses reported worldwide. Multiple stressors, including sediment and nutrient runoff, physical disturbance, invasive species, disease, commercial fishing practices, aquaculture, overgrazing, algal blooms, and global warming, cause seagrass declines at scales of square meters to hundreds of square kilometers. Reported seagrass losses have led to increased awareness of the need for seagrass protection, monitoring, management, and restoration. However, seagrass science, which has rapidly grown, is disconnected from public awareness of seagrasses, which has lagged behind awareness of other coastal ecosystems. There is a critical need for a targeted global conservation effort that includes a reduction of watershed nutrient and sediment inputs to seagrass habitats and a targeted educational program informing regulators and the public of the value of seagrass meadows.