NOAA Coral Reef Watch

BACKGROUND: The rising temperature of the world's oceans has become a major threat to coral reefs globally as the severity and frequency of mass coral bleaching and mortality events increase. In 2005, high ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean resulted in the most severe bleaching event ever recorded in the basin. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Satellite-based tools provided warnings for coral reef managers and scientists, guiding both the timing and location of researchers' field observations as anomalously warm conditions developed and spread across the greater Caribbean region from June to October 2005. Field surveys of bleaching and mortality exceeded prior efforts in detail and extent, and provided a new standard for documenting the effects of bleaching and for testing nowcast and forecast products. Collaborators from 22 countries undertook the most comprehensive documentation of basin-scale bleaching to date and found that over 80% of corals bleached and over 40% died at many sites. The most severe bleaching coincided with waters nearest a western Atlantic warm pool that was centered off the northern end of the Lesser Antilles. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Thermal stress during the 2005 event exceeded any observed from the Caribbean in the prior 20 years, and regionally-averaged temperatures were the warmest in over 150 years. Comparison of satellite data against field surveys demonstrated a significant predictive relationship between accumulated heat stress (measured using NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Degree Heating Weeks) and bleaching intensity. This severe, widespread bleaching and mortality will undoubtedly have long-term consequences for reef ecosystems and suggests a troubled future for tropical marine ecosystems under a warming climate.

Coral reefs across the world's oceans are in the midst of the longest bleaching event on record (from 2014 to at least 2016). As many of the world's reefs are remote, there is limited information on how past thermal conditions have influenced reef composition and current stress responses. Using satellite temperature data for 1985-2012, the analysis we present is the first to quantify, for global reef locations, spatial variations in warming trends, thermal stress events and temperature variability at reef-scale (~4 km). Among over 60,000 reef pixels globally, 97% show positive SST trends during the study period with 60% warming significantly. Annual trends exceeded summertime trends at most locations. This indicates that the period of summer-like temperatures has become longer through the record, with a corresponding shortening of the 'winter' reprieve from warm temperatures. The frequency of bleaching-level thermal stress increased three-fold between 1985-91 and 2006-12 - a trend climate model projections suggest will continue. The thermal history data products developed enable needed studies relating thermal history to bleaching resistance and community composition. Such analyses can help identify reefs more resilient to thermal stress.

Abstract Increasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to change and recovery will be limited. However, previous model-resolution projections (~1 × 1°) are too coarse to inform conservation planning. To meet the need for higher-resolution projections, we generated statistically downscaled projections (4-km resolution) for all coral reefs; these projections reveal high local-scale variation in ASB. Timing of ASB varies >10 years in 71 of the 87 countries and territories with > 500 km 2 of reef area. Emissions scenario RCP4.5 represents lower emissions mid-century than will eventuate if pledges made following the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP21) become reality. These pledges do little to provide reefs with more time to adapt and acclimate prior to severe bleaching conditions occurring annually. RCP4.5 adds 11 years to the global average ASB timing when compared to RCP8.5; however, >75% of reefs still experience ASB before 2070 under RCP4.5. Coral reef futures clearly vary greatly among and within countries, indicating the projections warrant consideration in most reef areas during conservation and management planning.

In recent decades, coral reef ecosystems have declined to the extent that reefs are now threatened globally. While many water quality parameters have been proposed to contribute to reef declines, little evidence exists conclusively linking specific water quality parameters with increased disease prevalence in situ. Here we report evidence from in situ coral health surveys confirming that chronic exposure to dredging-associated sediment plumes significantly increase the prevalence of white syndromes, a devastating group of globally important coral diseases. Coral health surveys were conducted along a dredging-associated sediment plume gradient to assess the relationship between sedimentation, turbidity and coral health. Reefs exposed to the highest number of days under the sediment plume (296 to 347 days) had two-fold higher levels of disease, largely driven by a 2.5-fold increase in white syndromes, and a six-fold increase in other signs of compromised coral health relative to reefs with little or no plume exposure (0 to 9 days). Multivariate modeling and ordination incorporating sediment exposure level, coral community composition and cover, predation and multiple thermal stress indices provided further confirmation that sediment plume exposure level was the main driver of elevated disease and other compromised coral health indicators. This study provides the first evidence linking dredging-associated sedimentation and turbidity with elevated coral disease prevalence in situ. Our results may help to explain observed increases in global coral disease prevalence in recent decades and suggest that minimizing sedimentation and turbidity associated with coastal development will provide an important management tool for controlling coral disease epizootics.

Resilience underpins the sustainability of both ecological and social systems. Extensive loss of reef corals following recent mass bleaching events have challenged the notion that support of system resilience is a viable reef management strategy. While resilience-based management (RBM) cannot prevent the damaging effects of major disturbances, such as mass bleaching events, it can support natural processes that promote resistance and recovery. Here, we review the potential of RBM to help sustain coral reefs in the 21st century. We explore the scope for supporting resilience through existing management approaches and emerging technologies and discuss their opportunities and limitations in a changing climate. We argue that for RBM to be effective in a changing world, reef management strategies need to involve both existing and new interventions that together reduce stress, support the fitness of populations and species, and help people and economies to adapt to a highly altered ecosystem.

= 8968; 2004-2016) reveal 80 to 100% declines across a ~3000-km range. Furthermore, timing of peak declines in nearshore waters coincided with anomalously warm sea surface temperatures. The rapid, widespread decline of this pivotal subtidal predator threatens its persistence and may have large ecosystem-level consequences.

Anomalously high sea surface temperatures (SST) have led to repeated mass coral bleaching events on a global scale. Existing satellite‐based systems used to monitor conditions conducive to bleaching are based on low‐resolution (0.5°, ∼50 km) SST data. While these systems have served the research and management community well, they have inherent weaknesses that limit their capacity to predict stress on coral reefs at local scales, over which bleaching severity is known to vary dramatically. Here we discuss the development and testing of ReefTemp , a new operational remote sensing application for the Great Barrier Reef that assesses bleaching risk daily using: high‐resolution (2 km) SST, regionally validated thermal stress indices, and color‐graded legends directly related to past observations of bleaching severity. Given projections of sea temperature rise, ReefTemp is timely as it can accurately predict bleaching severity at a local scale and therefore help to give focus to future research and monitoring efforts.

Infectious marine diseases can decimate populations and are increasing among some taxa due to global change and our increasing reliance on marine environments. Marine diseases become emergencies when significant ecological, economic or social impacts occur. We can prepare for and manage these emergencies through improved surveillance, and the development and iterative refinement of approaches to mitigate disease and its impacts. Improving surveillance requires fast, accurate diagnoses, forecasting disease risk and real-time monitoring of disease-promoting environmental conditions. Diversifying impact mitigation involves increasing host resilience to disease, reducing pathogen abundance and managing environmental factors that facilitate disease. Disease surveillance and mitigation can be adaptive if informed by research advances and catalysed by communication among observers, researchers and decision-makers using information-sharing platforms. Recent increases in the awareness of the threats posed by marine diseases may lead to policy frameworks that facilitate the responses and management that marine disease emergencies require.

A changing climate is driving increasingly common and prolonged marine heatwaves (MHWs) and these extreme events have now been widely documented to severely impact marine ecosystems globally. However MHWs have rarely recently been considered when examining temperature-induced degradation of coral reef ecosystems. Here we consider extreme, localised thermal anomalies, nested within broader increases in sea surface temperature, which fulfil the definitive criteria for MHWs. These acute and intense events, referred to here as MHW hotspots, are not always well represented in the current framework used to describe coral bleaching, but do have distinct ecological outcomes, including widespread bleaching and rapid mass mortality of putatively thermally tolerant coral species. The physical drivers of these localised hotspots are discussed here, and in doing so we present a comprehensive theoretical framework that links the biological responses of the coral photo-endosymbiotic organism to extreme thermal stress and ecological changes on reefs associated after MHW hotspots. We describe how the rapid onset of high temperatures drives immediate heat-stress induced cellular damage, overwhelming mechanisms that would otherwise mitigate the impact of gradually accumulated thermal stress. The warm environment, and increased light penetration of the coral skeleton due to the loss of coral tissues, coupled with coral tissue decay support rapid microbial growth in the skeletal microenvironment, resulting in the widely unrecognised consequence of rapid decay and degeneration of the coral skeletons. This accelerated degeneration of the coral skeletonson a reef scale hinder the recovery of coral populations and increase the likelihood of phase shifts towards algal dominance. We suggest that MHW hotspots, through driving rapid heat-induced mortality, compromise reefs’ structural frameworks to the detriment of long term recovery. We propose that MHW hotspots be considered as a distinct class of thermal stress events in coral reefs, and that the current framework used to describe coral bleaching and mass mortality be expanded to include these. We urge further research into how coral mortality affects bioerosion by coral endoliths.

Coral spawning times have been linked to multiple environmental factors; however, to what extent these factors act as generalized cues across multiple species and large spatial scales is unknown. We used a unique dataset of coral spawning from 34 reefs in the Indian and Pacific Oceans to test if month of spawning and peak spawning month in assemblages of Acropora spp. can be predicted by sea surface temperature (SST), photosynthetically available radiation, wind speed, current speed, rainfall or sunset time. Contrary to the classic view that high mean SST initiates coral spawning, we found rapid increases in SST to be the best predictor in both cases (month of spawning: R(2) = 0.73, peak: R(2) = 0.62). Our findings suggest that a rapid increase in SST provides the dominant proximate cue for coral mass spawning over large geographical scales. We hypothesize that coral spawning is ultimately timed to ensure optimal fertilization success.

Outbreaks of marine infectious diseases have caused widespread mass mortalities, but the lack of baseline data has precluded evaluating whether disease is increasing or decreasing in the ocean. We use an established literature proxy method from Ward and Lafferty (Ward and Lafferty 2004 PLoS Biology 2 , e120 ( doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0020120 )) to analyse a 44-year global record of normalized disease reports from 1970 to 2013. Major marine hosts are combined into nine taxonomic groups, from seagrasses to marine mammals, to assess disease swings, defined as positive or negative multi-decadal shifts in disease reports across related hosts. Normalized disease reports increased significantly between 1970 and 2013 in corals and urchins, indicating positive disease swings in these environmentally sensitive ectotherms. Coral disease reports in the Caribbean correlated with increasing temperature anomalies, supporting the hypothesis that warming oceans drive infectious coral diseases. Meanwhile, disease risk may also decrease in a changing ocean. Disease reports decreased significantly in fishes and elasmobranchs, which have experienced steep human-induced population declines and diminishing population density that, while concerning, may reduce disease. The increases and decreases in disease reports across the 44-year record transcend short-term fluctuations and regional variation. Our results show that long-term changes in disease reports coincide with recent decades of widespread environmental change in the ocean.

To forecast marine disease outbreaks as oceans warm requires new environmental surveillance tools. We describe an iterative process for developing these tools that combines research, development and deployment for suitable systems. The first step is to identify candidate host-pathogen systems. The 24 candidate systems we identified include sponges, corals, oysters, crustaceans, sea stars, fishes and sea grasses (among others). To illustrate the other steps, we present a case study of epizootic shell disease (ESD) in the American lobster. Increasing prevalence of ESD is a contributing factor to lobster fishery collapse in southern New England (SNE), raising concerns that disease prevalence will increase in the northern Gulf of Maine under climate change. The lowest maximum bottom temperature associated with ESD prevalence in SNE is 12 °C. Our seasonal outlook for 2015 and long-term projections show bottom temperatures greater than or equal to 12 °C may occur in this and coming years in the coastal bays of Maine. The tools presented will allow managers to target efforts to monitor the effects of ESD on fishery sustainability and will be iteratively refined. The approach and case example highlight that temperature-based surveillance tools can inform research, monitoring and management of emerging and continuing marine disease threats.

Tropical coastal and marine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to ocean warming, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise. Yet these projected climate and ocean change impacts are rarely considered in conservation planning due to the lack of guidance on how existing climate and ocean change models, tools, and data can be applied. Here, we address this gap by describing how conservation planning can use available tools and data for assessing the vulnerability of tropical marine ecosystems to key climate threats. Additionally, we identify limitations of existing tools and provide recommendations for future research to improve integration of climate and ocean change information and conservation planning. Such information is critical for developing a conservation response that adequately protects these ecosystems and dependent coastal communities in the face of climate and ocean change.

Interannual to multidecadal variability of winter storminess in the eastern United States was studied using water level measurements from coastal tide gauges. The proximity to the coast of the primary winter storm track in the region allows the use of tide gauges to study temporal modulations in the frequency of these storms. Storms were identified in high-passed, detided sea level anomalies in 20 gauges from all coasts of North America to assess variability in winter storminess along particular storm tracks. The primary result is a significant multidecadal increase in the number of storms affecting the southeastern United States from the early to late twentieth century. The authors propose that this change is due to an increased tendency for the jet stream to meander south over the eastern United States since the 1950s. This mechanism is supported by long-term changes in the large-scale sea level pressure pattern over North America. The nature of the multidecadal change in storm frequency is unclear, because limited tide gauge record lengths prevent distinguishing between a trend and an oscillation.

Malaysia contains approximately 4,000 km 2 of reef (Wilkinson 2008) and an estimated 500 hermatypic coral species, which constitutes more than 60% of the worlds described hermatypic coral species However, these reefs are exposed to numerous anthropogenic pressures and more than 40% are classifi ed as having a high or very high Integrated Threat Index Prior to 2010, severe and widespread coral bleaching had not been observed on Malaysian reefs, including during the 1997/98 global event when bleaching of Malaysian reefs was mild and occurred only in localized patches In 2010, bleaching began in mid-May along the northwestern coast of Peninsular Malaysia; within three weeks, reefs around the major islands along the east coast were bleached (Fig. This event followed the peak of the third strongest El Nio event in the past 50 years (www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ENSO/enso.html). Around 50% of hard corals at Tioman (249N, 10410E), Redang (546N, 10301E) and Perhentian Islands (555N, 10244) were bleached, with two-thirds of those colonies completely white. During the underwater visual surveys (40 and 29 surveys around Tioman and Perhentian Islands, re spectively), bleached corals were observed down to 20 meters depth; at Redang Islands (54 surveys) bleaching was found as deep as 25 meters. The severity and extent of the bleaching was consistent with the observed level of satellitederived thermal stress, exceeding 8 -weeks (Liu et al. 2003; Fig. 2), In addition, outbreaks of an unidentifi ed disease increased the mortality rate of corals (Fig. 1b). In contrast, minimal bleaching was observed in East

Coral bleaching has impacted reefs worldwide and the predictions of near-annual bleaching from over two decades ago have now been realized. While technology currently provides the means to predict large-scale bleaching, predicting reef-scale and within-reef patterns in real-time for all reef users is limited. In 2020, heat stress across the Great Barrier Reef underpinned the region's third bleaching event in 5 years. Here we review the heterogeneous emergence of bleaching across Heron Island reef habitats and discuss the oceanographic drivers that underpinned variable bleaching emergence. We do so as a case study to highlight how reef end-user groups who engage with coral reefs in different ways require targeted guidance for how, and when, to alter their use of coral reefs in response to bleaching events. Our case study of coral bleaching emergence demonstrates how within-reef scale nowcasting of coral bleaching could aid the development of accessible and equitable bleaching response strategies on coral reefs. Also see the video abstract here: https://youtu.be/N9Tgb8N-vN0.

Abstract Extremes in seasonal environmental conditions can significantly impact the health and physiological functioning of reef corals, underscoring the need for knowledge of seasonally specific baselines from which to monitor and forecast impending stress. Increases above summertime means in seawater temperature, sunlight intensity, turbidity, or sedimentation may reduce coral immunocompetency and increase disease and bleaching susceptibility. We analyzed temporal patterns in innate immunity parameters over nine time points throughout one year to establish baseline levels from which anomalies might be detected for representative species from three major reef‐building coral families (Acroporidae, Faviidae, and Poritidae). Temporal patterns in both phenoloxidase activity and expression of green fluorescent protein‐like proteins varied among the three families, as did overall constitutive levels. For example, Porites cylindrica had 2.8‐fold higher yearly average levels of phenoloxidase activity than Acropora millepora, which had the lowest levels. In contrast, mean fluorescence was lowest in Acropora millepora and highest in Echinopora mammiformis . Relationships between the potential physical drivers (seasonal variation in seawater temperature, rainfall, salinity) and temporal patterns in these parameters also differed among the three species. For example, phenoloxidase activity was positively correlated with seawater temperature in A. millepora , but negatively correlated in both E. mammiformis and P. cylindrica . Distinctions in constitutive levels and temporal patterns in these parameters among species suggest that corals from these three families have evolved different strategies for investing resources into innate immune parameters. Such differences highlight the need for species‐specific baselines and long‐term assessments to accurately predict coral reef trajectories in rapidly changing environments.

This data compilation synthesizes 36 static environmental and spatial variables, and temporally explicit modeled estimates of three major disturbances to coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR): (1) coral bleaching, (2) tropical cyclones, and (3) outbreaks of the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster cf. solaris. Data are provided on a standardized grid (0.01° × 0.01° ~ 1 × 1 km) for reef locations along the GBR, containing 15,928 pixels and excluding the northernmost sections (<12° S) where empirical data were sparse. This compilation provides a consistent and high-resolution characterization of the abiotic environment and disturbance regimes for GBR reef locations at a fine spatial scale to be used in the development of complex ecosystem models. Static estimates of environmental variables (e.g., depth, bed shear stress, average temperature, temperature variation) originally developed by the Commonwealth of Australia's Environment Research Facility (CERF) Marine Biodiversity Hub were provided by Geoscience Australia. Annual (1985-2017) disturbance estimates were either interpolated from empirical data (A. cf. solaris), predicted from proxy indicators (e.g., degree heating weeks [DHW] as a proxy for bleaching severity), or explicitly modeled (e.g., wave height model for each cyclone). This data set synthesizes some of the most recent advances in remote sensing and modeling of environmental conditions on the GBR; yet it is not exhaustive and we highlight areas that should be expanded through future research. The characterization of abiotic and disturbance regimes presented here represent an essential tool for the development of complex regional scale models of the GBR; preventing redundancy between working groups and promoting collaboration, innovation, and consistency. When using the data set, we kindly request that you cite this article and/or the articles cited in the reference section, recognizing the work that went into compiling the data together and the original authors' willingness to make it publicly available.

Abstract The effects of thermal anomalies on tropical coral endosymbiosis can be mediated by a range of environmental factors, which in turn ultimately influence coral health and survival. One such factor is the water flow conditions over coral reefs and corals. Although the physiological benefits of living under high water flow are well known, there remains a lack of conclusive experimental evidence characterizing how flow mitigates thermal stress responses in corals. Here we use in situ measurements of flow in a variety of reef habitats to constrain the importance of flow speeds on the endosymbiosis of an important reef building species under different thermal regimes. Under high flow speeds (0.15 m s−1) and thermal stress, coral endosymbionts retained photosynthetic function and recovery capacity for longer compared to low flow conditions (0.03 m s−1). We hypothesize that this may be due to increased rates of mass transfer of key metabolites under higher flow, putatively allowing corals to maintain photosynthetic efficiency for longer. We also identified a positive interactive effect between high flow and a pre-stress, sub-lethal pulse in temperature. While higher flow may delay the onset of photosynthetic stress, it does not appear to confer long-term protection; sustained exposure to thermal stress (eDHW accumulation equivalent to 4.9°C weeks) eventually overwhelmed the coral meta-organism as evidenced by eventual declines in photo-physiological function and endosymbiont densities. Investigating flow patterns at the scale of metres within the context of these physiological impacts can reveal interesting avenues for coral reef management. This study increases our understanding of the effects of water flow on coral reef health in an era of climate change and highlights the potential to learn from existing beneficial bio-physical interactions for the effective preservation of coral reefs into the future.

Abstract Exposure to disturbance is rarely considered in marine protected area planning. Typically, representing and replicating the habitat types present within protected areas is used to spread the risk of protecting frequently disturbed sites. This was the approach used during the 2004 re‐zoning of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) via the Representative Areas Program. Over 10 years later, we examine whether the risk was spread by mapping exposure of coral reefs in the GBRMP to four disturbances that cause coral mortality: bleaching, tropical cyclones, crown‐of‐thorns starfish outbreaks, and freshwater inundation. Our objectives were to: (1) assess whether no‐take areas include a range of disturbance regimes, and (2) identify coral reef areas with lower relative exposure. At least 13% and an average of 31% of reef locations in each of 11 exposure classes are included within no‐take areas. A greater proportion of low‐exposure areas are within no‐take areas than high‐exposure areas (34.2% vs. 28.3%). The results demonstrate the value of risk spreading when exposure data are not available while also showing that regularly assessing exposure increases capacity for adaptive, resilience‐based reef management.