Nuffield Foundation

A recent literature has constructed top income shares time series over the long run for more than twenty countries using income tax statistics. Top incomes represent a small share of the population but a very significant share of total income and total taxes paid. Hence, aggregate economic growth per capita and Gini inequality indexes are sensitive to excluding or including top incomes. We discuss the estimation methods and issues that arise when constructing top income share series, including income definition and comparability over time and across countries, tax avoidance, and tax evasion. We provide a summary of the key empirical findings. Most countries experience a dramatic drop in top income shares in the first part of the twentieth century in general due to shocks to top capital incomes during the wars and depression shocks. Top income shares do not recover in the immediate postwar decades. However, over the last thirty years, top income shares have increased substantially in English speaking countries and in India and China but not in continental European countries or Japan. This increase is due in part to an unprecedented surge in top wage incomes. As a result, wage income comprises a larger fraction of top incomes than in the past. Finally, we discuss the theoretical and empirical models that have been proposed to account for the facts and the main questions that remain open. (JEL D31, D63, H26, N30)

This article analyses the recently suggested particle approach to filtering time series. We suggest that the algorithm is not robust to outliers for two reasons: the design of the simulators and the use of the discrete support to represent the sequentially updating prior distribution. Here we tackle the first of these problems.

Income Distribution

BACKGROUND: The SF-36 is a generic health status measure which has gained popularity as a measure of outcome in a wide variety of patient groups and social surveys. However, there is a need for even shorter measures, which reduce respondent burden. The developers of the SF-36 have consequently suggested that a 12-item sub-set of the items may accurately reproduce the two summary component scores which can be derived from the SF-36 [the Physical Component Summary Score (PCS) and Mental Health Component Summary Score (MCS)]. In this paper, we adopt scoring algorithms for the UK SF-36 and SF-12 summary scores to evaluate the picture of change gained in various treatment groups. METHODS: The SF-36 was administered in three treatment groups (ACE inhibitors for congestive heart failure, continuous positive airways therapy for sleep apnoea, and open vs laparoscopic surgery for inguinal hernia). RESULTS: PCS and MCS scores calculated from the SF-36 or a sub-set of 12 items (the 'SF-12') were virtually identical, and indicated the same magnitude of ill-health and degree of change over time. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that where two summary scores of health status are adequate than the SF-12 may be the instrument of choice.

This paper highlights a problem in using the first-differenced GMM panel data estimator to estimate cross-country growth regressions. When the time series are persistent, the first-differenced GMM estimator can be poorly behaved, since lagged levels of the series provide only weak instruments for subsequent first-differences. Revisiting the work of Caselli, Esquivel and Lefort (1996), we show that this problem may be serious in practice. We suggest using a more efficient GMM estimator that exploits stationarity restrictions and this approach is shown to give more reasonable results than first-differenced GMM in our estimation of an empirical growth model.

Abstract This article analyses the recently suggested particle approach to filtering time series. We suggest that the algorithm is not robust to outliers for two reasons: The design of the simulators and the use of the discrete support to represent the sequentially updating prior distribution. Here we tackle the first of these problems. Key Words: FilteringMarkov chain Monte CarloParticle filterSampling/importance resamplingSimulationState space

The top 1 percent income share has more than doubled in the United States over the last 30 years, drawing much public attention in recent years. While other English-speaking countries have also experienced sharp increases in the top 1 percent income share, many high-income countries such as Japan, France, or Germany have seen much less increase in top income shares. Hence, the explanation cannot rely solely on forces common to advanced countries, such as the impact of new technologies and globalization on the supply and demand for skills. Moreover, the explanations have to accommodate the falls in top income shares earlier in the twentieth century experienced in virtually all high-income countries. We highlight four main factors. The first is the impact of tax policy, which has varied over time and differs across countries. Top tax rates have moved in the opposite direction from top income shares. The effects of top rate cuts can operate in conjunction with other mechanisms. The second factor is a richer view of the labor market, where we contrast the standard supply-side model with one where pay is determined by bargaining and the reactions to top rate cuts may lead simply to a redistribution of surplus. Indeed, top rate cuts may lead managerial energies to be diverted to increasing their remuneration at the expense of enterprise growth and employment. The third factor is capital income. Overall, private wealth (relative to income) has followed a U-shaped path over time, particularly in Europe, where inherited wealth is, in Europe if not in the United States, making a return. The fourth, little investigated, element is the correlation between earned income and capital income, which has substantially increased in recent decades in the United States.

Journal Article Exploring the Black Box: Technology, Economics, and History. Get access Exploring the Black Box: Technology, Economics, and History. By Rosenberg Nathan. (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994. Pp. ix + 274. £40.00 hardback, US$54.95 hardback. ISBN 0 521 45270 8.) Gavin Cameron Gavin Cameron Nuffield College Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 105, Issue 430, 1 May 1995, Pages 740–742, https://doi.org/10.2307/2235034 Published: 01 May 1995

These practice guidelines on the management of arterial hypertension are a concise summary of the more extensive ones prepared by the Task Force jointly appointed by the European Society of Hypertension and the European Society of Cardiology. These guidelines have been prepared on the basis of the best available evidence on all issues deserving recommendations; their role must be educational and not prescriptive or coercive for the management of individual subjects who may differ widely in their personal, medical and cultural characteristics. The members of the Task Force have participated independently in the preparation of these guidelines, drawing on their academic and clinical experience and by objective examination and interpretation of all available literature. A disclosure of their potential conflict of interest is reported on the websites of the ESH and the ESC.

Two hepatic cytoplasmic protein fractions, designated Y and Z, which bind sulfobromophthalein (BSP), bilirubin, and other organic anions, have been separated by G75 Sephadex gel filtration. The physiologic role of these protein fractions has been investigated. They are present in the 110,000 g supernatant fraction from the livers of all the species tested (rats, mice, guinea pigs, Rhesus monkeys, sheep, and man). Tissues which do not preferentially extract BSP or bilirubin from plasma do not contain these fractions, with the exception of small intestinal mucosa which contains Z. Anion binding by Y and Z fractions is not due to contamination with albumin. These fractions are responsible for the cytoplasmic localization of bilirubin in Gunn rats, and the fractions bind bilirubin, BSP, or indocyanine green (ICG), whether given in vivo or added in vitro to liver supernate from normal rats. Flavaspidic acid-N-methylglucaminate, bunamiodyl, and iodipamide, drugs known to interfere with the hepatic uptake mechanism, compete with bilirubin and BSP for binding to Z. These proteins appear to be important in the transfer of organic anions from plasma into the liver and provide a tool for the investigation of hepatic uptake mechanisms.

The title of this Presidential Address is chosen to highlight the way in which the subject of income distribution has in the past been marginalised. For much of this century, it has been very much out in the cold. There are signs that in the 1990s it is being welcomed back, and I shall be referring to recent research, but I would like to use this occasion to give further impetus to the re-incorporation of income distribution into the main body of economic analysis.

Recently suggested procedures for simulating from the posterior density of states given a Gaussian state space time series are refined and extended. We introduce and study the simulation smoother, which draws from the multivariate posterior distribution of the disturbances of the model, so avoiding the degeneracies inherent in state samplers. The technique is important in Gibbs sampling with non-Gaussian time series models, and for performing Bayesian analysis of Gaussian time series.

1. Amiodarone (2-butyl, 3-(4-diethylaminoethoxy, 3,5-diiodo, benzoyl) benzofuran hydrochloride), an anti-anginal drug which causes coronary dilatation and depresses myocardial oxygen consumption, was found to protect anaesthetized guinea-pigs against ouabain-induced ventricular fibrillation.2. A 5% (73.4 mM) solution of amiodarone had no local anaesthetic action on guinea-pig skin.3. Amiodarone, 20 mg/kg (29.4 mumol/kg) given daily for 6 weeks intraperitoneally, had no effect on the resting potential or action potential height, and only a small effect on the maximum rate of depolarization, of isolated rabbit atrial or ventricular muscle fibres as shown by intracellular recording. It caused a considerable prolongation of the action potential in both tissues.4. Simultaneous administration of thyroxine (5 mug; 6.26 nmol), given daily for 3 weeks intraperitoneally, prevented the prolongation by amiodarone of the duration of the action potential.5. Treatment of rabbits with 20 mg/kg of amiodarone daily intraperitoneally for 6 weeks had no effect on the weight of the thyroid gland, but was associated with a reduction in body growth rate.6. Treatment of rabbits with 10 mg/kg (60.3 mumol/kg) of potassium iodide (equal in its iodine content to that of 20 mg/kg of amiodarone), given daily for 6 weeks intraperitoneally, had no effect on body growth rate or the duration of cardiac action potentials.7. It was concluded that amiodarone had effects on cardiac action potentials similar to those which occur after thyroidectomy.

STEPHEN NICKELL, BRIAN BELL; THE COLLAPSE IN DEMAND FOR THE UNSKILLED AND UNEMPLOYMENT ACROSS THE OECD, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 11, Issue 1, 1

Abstract As part of a general programme of research on the nature of inorganic melts, a study has been made of the manner in which sulphur is held in liquid silicates and aluminates. Mixtures of CaO-SiO2, MgO-SiO2, FeO-SiO2, CaO-Al2O3 and CaO-SiO2-Al2O3 have been brought into equilibrium, at temperatures between 1350 and 1650°C, with gas phases made by mixing H2, CO2 and SO2 at room temperature. It has been shown that, when pO2 is less than about 10–5 atm, a sulphur atom can only enter the melt by displacing a suitable oxygen atom. The sulphur is then held in the slag entirely as sulphide, its concentration being controlled by the general equilibrium, ½S2 + (O)melt = ½O2 + (S)melt. When pO2 is greater than about 10-3 atm, the sulphur is held as sulphate and the corresponding equilibrium is ½S2 + 3/2O2 + (O)melt = (SO4)melt∙ In the binary silicate melts there must be three kinds of oxygen atoms present: those bonded to two silicon atoms, those bonded to one silicon and those unattached to silicon. Their proportions are presumably connected by an equilibrium of the type O2– + ⋮ Si-O-Si ⋮ = 2(⋮ Si-O¯). From the manner in which both the sulphide and sulphate equilibria depend upon the proportions of metal oxide present, it appears that only the oxygen atoms which are unattached to silicon are of importance so far as these equilibria are concerned. The potential capacity of a melt to hold sulphur as sulphide is expressed as its sulphide capacity Cs = (wt. % S) (pO2)½/(ps2)½. For binary silicate and aluminate melts there is a close parallelism between the value of this capacity and the activity of the basic metal oxide. The activity coefficients for CaS have been found to be the same as for CaSO4 and approximately constant in CaO-SiO2 mixtures. The sulphide equilibrium results have been used to improve the free energy of formation curve for the formation of CaO-SiO2 melts, and to construct a similar curve for CaO-Al2O3 melts. The temperature coefficient of the sulphide capacity for CaO-SiO2 melts has been combined with other data and used to extend the heat of formation curve for CaO-SiO2 melts. The sulphur capacities, and presumably the lime activities, of the ternary melts CaO-SiO2 -Al2O3, have been shown to be a maximum at compositions for which the molar proportions of SiO2 and Al2O3are equal; this behaviour would be expected because the energy of interaction of SiO2 and Al2O3 is much greater than that of either CaO and SiO2 or CaO and Al2O3. It follows the pattern established for FeO activity coefficients in CaO-SiO2 and CaO-P2O5 melts, these rising to a maximum at CaO : SiO2 and CaO; P2O5 molar ratios of 2:1 and 3:1 respectively.

Abstract This book researches the question of what the Russian Mafia is, and challenges widely held views of its nature. It charts the emergence of the Russian Mafia in the context of the transition to the market, the privatization of protection, and pervasive corruption. The ability of the Russian State to define property rights and protect contracts is compared with the services offered by fragments of the state apparatus, private security firms, ethnic crime groups, the Cossacks and the Russian Mafia. Past criminal traditions, rituals, and norms have been resuscitated by the modern Russian Mafia to forge a powerful new identity and compete in a crowded market for protection. The book draws on and reports from undercover police operations, in-depth interviews conducted over several years with the victims of the Mafia, criminals, and officials, and documents from the Gulag archives. It also provides a comparative study, making references to other mafia in other countries (the Japanese Yakuza, the Sicilian Cosa Nostra, American–Italian Mafia and the Hong Kong Triads). The book has an introduction and conclusion and between these is arranged in three parts: I. The Transition to the Market and Protection in Russia (three chapters); II. Private protection in Perm (two chapters investigating the emergence and operation of the mafia in the city of Perm); and III. The Russian Mafia (three chapters).

Biopsy specimens and sera were obtained from 103 melanoma patients. Autoantibodies were demonstrated by (1) complement-dependent cytotoxicity of autologous melanoma cells in short-term culture; (2) complement-dependent inhibition of ribonucleic acid synthesis; (3) immunofluorescent staining of the cytoplasm of killed melanoma cells and of the surface membrane of viable melanoma cells. Over one-third of the sera studied had antibodies to autologous melanoma cells. Although for technical reasons all three tests could not be performed with the cells from every melanoma, whenever multiple testing was possible there was complete concordance. The autoantibodies were virtually confined to patients in whom the disease was not widely disseminated, and over 80% of such patients had positive sera. In a limited number of patients who have been followed autoantibodies disappeared as the disease progressed to become widely disseminated. Two patients with generalized disease developed autoantibodies following inoculation by their own irradiated tumour cells.TWO TYPES OF AUTOANTIBODIES WERE RECOGNIZED: one, active against antigen(s) in the cell surface membrane, was specific for each tumour-that is, only the autologous serum reacted-and was concerned in the cytotoxic activity; the other reacted with cytoplasmic antigens which appeared to be present in most or all melanoma cells.

1. Both MJ 1999 and AH 3474 protected guinea-pigs anaesthetized with urethane against ouabain-induced ventricular fibrillation.2. MJ 1999 had 1/90, and AH 3474 1/30, of the activity of procaine in reducing the height of the action potential of frog sciatic nerve.3. MJ 1999 and AH 3474 reduced the rate of rise of intracellularly recorded action potentials at concentrations in excess of 160 x 10(-6)M (50 mg/l.). It was concluded that direct depression of depolarization could have contributed little to the protection against ouabain-induced fibrillation.4. MJ 1999, but not AH 3474, greatly prolonged the duration of the action potential in acute experiments on isolated atrial and ventricular muscle, and prolonged the Q-Tc interval of the electrocardiogram in anaesthetized guinea-pigs. It is suggested that this effect contributes to anti-arrhythmic activity.5. At concentrations up to 80 x 10(-6)M AH 3474 had positive chronotropic and inotropic effects on isolated rabbit atrial muscle, but at higher concentrations these were superseded by negative effects. MJ 1999 was depressant at all concentrations studied, the threshold concentrations being 19 x 10(-6)M for chronotropic, and 162 x 10(-6)M for inotropic effects.

As institutions and governance structures develop in modern markets, they tend to “feed back” onto economic activity. Through such feedback loops, market and political arenas can develop symbiotically into relatively coherent “fields” that gradually embed actors’ orientations and activities. Using these insights, this article develops and tests a theory of European integration focusing on the case of the European Community, the first pillar of the European Union. Traders, organized interests, courts, and the EC’s policy‐making organs, over time, have produced a self‐sustaining causal system that has driven the construction of the European market and polity. The generality of this explanation to a sociology of markets and polity‐building projects is discussed in the conclusion.

Agenda‐setting hypotheses inform research on both media influence and policy making. The study draws from these two literatures, building a more accurate and comprehensive model of the expanded agenda‐setting process. Evidence is derived from a longitudinal dataset, including a content analysis of Canadian newspapers, results from public opinion polls, and measures of attention to issues in Question Period, committees, Throne Speeches, and legislative initiatives from 1985 to 1995. A model is estimated that accommodates dynamic, multi‐directional effects. Findings are presented for three issues—inflation, environment, and debt/deficit—with an eye on examining different agenda‐setting dynamics, and the degree to which these dynamics are linked to issue attributes. The results (1) demonstrate the value of an agenda‐setting framework and a means of modelling media effects and the policy making process, and (2) indicate the importance of taking issue attributes into account in predicting or accounting for agenda‐setting effects.