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BACKGROUND: Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete landscape of future health scenarios, highlighting a need for a more robust modelling platform from which policy options and potential health trajectories can be assessed. This study provides a novel approach to modelling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts -and alternative future scenarios-for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories. METHODS: We modelled 250 causes and cause groups organised by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) hierarchical cause structure, using GBD 2016 estimates from 1990-2016, to generate predictions for 2017-40. Our modelling framework used data from the GBD 2016 study to systematically account for the relationships between risk factors and health outcomes for 79 independent drivers of health. We developed a three-component model of cause-specific mortality: a component due to changes in risk factors and select interventions; the underlying mortality rate for each cause that is a function of income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years and time; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model for unexplained changes correlated with time. We assessed the performance by fitting models with data from 1990-2006 and using these to forecast for 2007-16. Our final model used for generating forecasts and alternative scenarios was fitted to data from 1990-2016. We used this model for 195 countries and territories to generate a reference scenario or forecast through 2040 for each measure by location. Additionally, we generated better health and worse health scenarios based on the 85th and 15th percentiles, respectively, of annualised rates of change across location-years for all the GBD risk factors, income per person, educational attainment, select intervention coverage, and total fertility rate under 25 years in the past. We used the model to generate all-cause age-sex specific mortality, life expectancy, and years of life lost (YLLs) for 250 causes. Scenarios for fertility were also generated and used in a cohort component model to generate population scenarios. For each reference forecast, better health, and worse health scenarios, we generated estimates of mortality and YLLs attributable to each risk factor in the future. FINDINGS: Globally, most independent drivers of health were forecast to improve by 2040, but 36 were forecast to worsen. As shown by the better health scenarios, greater progress might be possible, yet for some drivers such as high body-mass index (BMI), their toll will rise in the absence of intervention. We forecasted global life expectancy to increase by 4·4 years (95% UI 2·2 to 6·4) for men and 4·4 years (2·1 to 6·4) for women by 2040, but based on better and worse health scenarios, trajectories could range from a gain of 7·8 years (5·9 to 9·8) to a non-significant loss of 0·4 years (-2·8 to 2·2) for men, and an increase of 7·2 years (5·3 to 9·1) to essentially no change (0·1 years [-2·7 to 2·5]) for women. In 2040, Japan, Singapore, Spain, and Switzerland had a forecasted life expectancy exceeding 85 years for both sexes, and 59 countries including China were projected to surpass a life expectancy of 80 years by 2040. At the same time, Central African Republic, Lesotho, Somalia, and Zimbabwe had projected life expectancies below 65 years in 2040, indicating global disparities in survival are likely to persist if current trends hold. Forecasted YLLs showed a rising toll from several non-communicable diseases (NCDs), partly driven by population growth and ageing. Differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios were most striking for HIV/AIDS, for which a potential increase of 120·2% (95% UI 67·2-190·3) in YLLs (nearly 118 million) was projected globally from 2016-40 under the worse health scenario. Compared with 2016, NCDs were forecast to account for a greater proportion of YLLs in all GBD regions by 2040 (67·3% of YLLs [95% UI 61·9-72·3] globally); nonetheless, in many lower-income countries, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases still accounted for a large share of YLLs in 2040 (eg, 53·5% of YLLs [95% UI 48·3-58·5] in Sub-Saharan Africa). There were large gaps for many health risks between the reference forecast and better health scenario for attributable YLLs. In most countries, metabolic risks amenable to health care (eg, high blood pressure and high plasma fasting glucose) and risks best targeted by population-level or intersectoral interventions (eg, tobacco, high BMI, and ambient particulate matter pollution) had some of the largest differences between reference and better health scenarios. The main exception was sub-Saharan Africa, where many risks associated with poverty and lower levels of development (eg, unsafe water and sanitation, household air pollution, and child malnutrition) were projected to still account for substantive disparities between reference and better health scenarios in 2040. INTERPRETATION: With the present study, we provide a robust, flexible forecasting platform from which reference forecasts and alternative health scenarios can be explored in relation to a wide range of independent drivers of health. Our reference forecast points to overall improvements through 2040 in most countries, yet the range found across better and worse health scenarios renders a precarious vision of the future-a world with accelerating progress from technical innovation but with the potential for worsening health outcomes in the absence of deliberate policy action. For some causes of YLLs, large differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios reflect the opportunity to accelerate gains if countries move their trajectories toward better health scenarios-or alarming challenges if countries fall behind their reference forecasts. Generally, decision makers should plan for the likely continued shift toward NCDs and target resources toward the modifiable risks that drive substantial premature mortality. If such modifiable risks are prioritised today, there is opportunity to reduce avoidable mortality in the future. However, CMNN causes and related risks will remain the predominant health priority among lower-income countries. Based on our 2040 worse health scenario, there is a real risk of HIV mortality rebounding if countries lose momentum against the HIV epidemic, jeopardising decades of progress against the disease. Continued technical innovation and increased health spending, including development assistance for health targeted to the world's poorest people, are likely to remain vital components to charting a future where all populations can live full, healthy lives. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Our website uses cookies to enhance your experience. By continuing to use our site, or clicking "Continue," you are agreeing to our Cookie Policy | Continue JAMA Surgery HomeNew OnlineCurrent IssueFor Authors Podcast Publications JAMA JAMA Network Open JAMA Cardiology JAMA Dermatology JAMA Health Forum JAMA Internal Medicine JAMA Neurology JAMA Oncology JAMA Ophthalmology JAMA Otolaryngology–Head & Neck Surgery JAMA Pediatrics JAMA Psychiatry JAMA Surgery Archives of Neurology & Psychiatry (1919-1959) JN Learning / CMESubscribeJobsInstitutions / LibrariansReprints & Permissions Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Accessibility Statement 2023 American Medical Association. All Rights Reserved Search All JAMA JAMA Network Open JAMA Cardiology JAMA Dermatology JAMA Forum Archive JAMA Health Forum JAMA Internal Medicine JAMA Neurology JAMA Oncology JAMA Ophthalmology JAMA Otolaryngology–Head & Neck Surgery JAMA Pediatrics JAMA Psychiatry JAMA Surgery Archives of Neurology & Psychiatry Input Search Term Sign In Individual Sign In Sign inCreate an Account Access through your institution Sign In Purchase Options: Buy this article Rent this article Subscribe to the JAMA Surgery journal

Importance: Little is known about the incidence of gender-affirming surgical procedures for transgender patients in the United States. Objectives: To investigate the incidence and trends over time of gender-affirming surgical procedures and to analyze characteristics and payer status of transgender patients seeking these operations. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this descriptive observational study from 2000 to 2014, data were analyzed from the National Inpatient Sample, a representative pool of inpatient visits across the United States. The initial analyses were done from June to August 2015. Patients of interest were identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, diagnosis codes for transsexualism or gender identity disorder. Subanalysis focused on patients with procedure codes for surgery related to gender affirmation. Main Outcomes and Measures: Demographics, health insurance plan, and type of surgery for patients who sought gender-affirming surgery were compared between 2000-2005 and 2006-2011, as well as annually from 2012 to 2014. Results: This study included 37 827 encounters (median [interquartile range] patient age, 38 [26-49] years) identified by a diagnosis code of transsexualism or gender identity disorder. Of all encounters, 4118 (10.9%) involved gender-affirming surgery. The incidence of genital surgery increased over time: in 2000-2005, 72.0% of patients who underwent gender-affirming procedures had genital surgery; in 2006-2011, 83.9% of patients who underwent gender-affirming procedures had genital surgery. Most patients (2319 of 4118 [56.3%]) undergoing these procedures were not covered by any health insurance plan. The number of patients seeking these procedures who were covered by Medicare or Medicaid increased by 3-fold in 2014 (to 70) compared with 2012-2013 (from 25). No patients who underwent inpatient gender-affirming surgery died in the hospital. Conclusions and Relevance: Most transgender patients in this national sample undergoing inpatient gender-affirming surgery were classified as self-pay; however, an increasing number of transgender patients are being covered by private insurance, Medicare, or Medicaid. As coverage for these procedures increases, likely so will demand for qualified surgeons to perform them.

OBJECTIVE: The development of these updated clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) was commissioned by the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists (AACE), The Obesity Society (TOS), American Society for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery (ASMBS), Obesity Medicine Association (OMA), and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Boards of Directors in adherence with the AACE 2017 protocol for standardized production of CPGs, algorithms, and checklists. METHODS: Each recommendation was evaluated and updated based on new evidence from 2013 to the present and subjective factors provided by experts. RESULTS: New or updated topics in this CPG include: contextualization in an adiposity-based chronic disease complications-centric model, nuance-based and algorithm/checklist-assisted clinical decision-making about procedure selection, novel bariatric procedures, enhanced recovery after bariatric surgery protocols, and logistical concerns (including cost factors) in the current health care arena. There are 85 numbered recommendations that have updated supporting evidence, of which 61 are revised and 12 are new. Noting that there can be multiple recommendation statements within a single numbered recommendation, there are 31 (13%) Grade A, 42 (17%) Grade B, 72 (29%) Grade C, and 101 (41%) Grade D recommendations. There are 858 citations, of which 81 (9.4%) are evidence level (EL) 1 (highest), 562 (65.5%) are EL 2, 72 (8.4%) are EL 3, and 143 (16.7%) are EL 4 (lowest). CONCLUSIONS: Bariatric procedures remain a safe and effective intervention for higher-risk patients with obesity. Clinical decision-making should be evidence based within the context of a chronic disease. A team approach to perioperative care is mandatory, with special attention to nutritional and metabolic issues.

Importance: Although surgery offers the best chance of a potential cure for patients with localized, resectable intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), prognosis of patients remains dismal largely because of a high incidence of recurrence. Objective: To predict very early recurrence (VER) (ie, recurrence within 6 months after surgery) following resection for ICC in the pre- and postoperative setting. Design, Setting, and Participants: Patients who underwent curative-intent resection for ICC between May 1990 and July 2016 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. The study was conducted at The Ohio State University in collaboration with all other participating institutions. The data were analyzed in December 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: Two logistic regression models were constructed to predict VER based on pre- and postoperative variables. The final models were used to develop an online calculator to predict VER and the tool was internally and externally validated. Results: Among 880 patients (median age, 59 years [interquartile range, 51-68 years]; 388 women [44.1%]; 428 [50.2%] white; 377 [44.3%] Asian; 27 [3.2%] black]), 196 (22.3%) developed VER. The 5-year overall survival among patients with and without VER was 8.9% vs 49.8%, respectively (P < .001). A preoperative model was able to stratify patients relative to the risk for VER: low risk (6-month recurrence-free survival [RFS], 87.7%), intermediate risk (6-month RFS, 72.3%), and high risk (6-month RFS, 49.5%) (log-rank P < .001). The postoperative model similarly identified discrete cohorts of patients based on probability for VER: low risk (6-month RFS, 90.0%), intermediate risk (6-month RFS, 73.1%), and high risk (6-month RFS, 48.5%) (log-rank, P < .001). The calibration and predictive accuracy of the pre- and postoperative models were good in the training (C index: preoperative, 0.710; postoperative, 0.722) as well as the internal (C index: preoperative, 0.715; postoperative, 0.728; bootstrapping resamples, n = 5000) and external (C index: postoperative, 0.672) validation data sets. Conclusion and Relevance: An easy-to-use online calculator was developed to help clinicians predict the chance of VER after curative-intent resection for ICC. The tool performed well on internal and external validation. This tool may help clinicians in the preoperative selection of patients for neoadjuvant therapy as well as during the postoperative period to inform surveillance strategies.

Importance: The overprescription of pain medications has been implicated as a driver of the burgeoning opioid epidemic; however, few guidelines exist regarding the appropriateness of opioid pain medication prescriptions after surgery. Objectives: To describe patterns of opioid pain medication prescriptions after common surgical procedures and determine the appropriateness of the prescription as indicated by the rate of refills. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Department of Defense Military Health System Data Repository was used to identify opioid-naive individuals 18 to 64 years of age who had undergone 1 of 8 common surgical procedures between January 1, 2005, and September 30, 2014. The adjusted risk of refilling an opioid prescription based on the number of days of initial prescription was modeled using a generalized additive model with spline smoothing. Exposures: Length of initial prescription for opioid pain medication. Main Outcomes and Measures: Need for an additional subsequent prescription for opioid pain medication, or a refill. Results: Of the 215 140 individuals (107 588 women and 107 552 men; mean [SD] age, 40.1 [12.8] years) who underwent a procedure within the study time frame and received and filled at least 1 prescription for opioid pain medication within 14 days of their index procedure, 41 107 (19.1%) received at least 1 refill prescription. The median prescription lengths were 4 days (interquartile range [IQR], 3-5 days) for appendectomy and cholecystectomy, 5 days (IQR, 3-6 days) for inguinal hernia repair, 4 days (IQR, 3-5 days) for hysterectomy, 5 days (IQR, 3-6 days) for mastectomy, 5 days (IQR, 4-8 days) for anterior cruciate ligament repair and rotator cuff repair, and 7 days (IQR, 5-10 days) for discectomy. The early nadir in the probability of refill was at an initial prescription of 9 days for general surgery procedures (probability of refill, 10.7%), 13 days for women's health procedures (probability of refill, 16.8%), and 15 days for musculoskeletal procedures (probability of refill, 32.5%). Conclusions and Relevance: Ideally, opioid prescriptions after surgery should balance adequate pain management against the duration of treatment. In practice, the optimal length of opioid prescriptions lies between the observed median prescription length and the early nadir, or 4 to 9 days for general surgery procedures, 4 to 13 days for women's health procedures, and 6 to 15 days for musculoskeletal procedures.

Importance: BRAF mutations are reportedly associated with aggressive tumor biology. However, in contrast with primary colorectal cancer, the association of V600E and non-V600E BRAF mutations with survival and recurrence after resection of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) has not been well studied. Objective: To investigate the prognostic association of BRAF mutations with survival and recurrence independently and compared with other prognostic determinants, such as KRAS mutations. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, all patients who underwent resection for CRLM with curative intent from January 1, 2000, through December 31, 2016, at the institutions participating in the International Genetic Consortium for Colorectal Liver Metastasis and had data on BRAF and KRAS mutational status were retrospectively identified. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess long-term outcomes. Interventions: Hepatectomy in patients with CRLM. Main Outcomes and Measures: The association of V600E and non-V600E BRAF mutations with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Results: Of 853 patients who met inclusion criteria (510 men [59.8%] and 343 women [40.2%]; mean [SD] age, 60.2 [12.4] years), 849 were included in the study analyses. Forty-three (5.1%) had a mutated (mut) BRAF/wild-type (wt) KRAS (V600E and non-V600E) genotype; 480 (56.5%), a wtBRAF/wtKRAS genotype; and 326 (38.4%), a wtBRAF/mutKRAS genotype. Compared with the wtBRAF/wtKRAS genotype group, patients with a mutBRAF/wtKRAS genotype more frequently were female (27 [62.8%] vs 169 [35.2%]) and 65 years or older (22 [51.2%] vs 176 [36.9%]), had right-sided primary tumors (27 [62.8%] vs 83 [17.4%]), and presented with a metachronous liver metastasis (28 [64.3%] vs 229 [46.8%]). On multivariable analysis, V600E but not non-V600E BRAF mutation was associated with worse OS (hazard ratio [HR], 2.76; 95% CI, 1.74-4.37; P < .001) and DFS (HR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.30-3.20; P = .002). The V600E BRAF mutation had a stronger association with OS and DFS than the KRAS mutations (β for OS, 10.15 vs 2.94; β for DFS, 7.14 vs 2.27). Conclusions and Relevance: The presence of the V600E BRAF mutation was associated with worse prognosis and increased risk of recurrence. The V600E mutation was not only a stronger prognostic factor than KRAS but also was the strongest prognostic determinant in the overall cohort.

IMPORTANCE: Based on evidence of survival benefit when initiating hemodialysis (HD) via arteriovenous fistula (AVF) or arteriovenous graft (AVG) vs hemodialysis catheter (HC), the National Kidney Foundation-Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative published practice guidelines in 1997 recommending 50% or greater AVF rates in incident HD patients. A decade after, lapses exist and the impact on HD outcomes is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To assess the achievement of the practice goals for incident vascular access and the effects on HD outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted using the US Renal Data System. All patients with end-stage renal disease in the United States without prior renal replacement therapy who had incident vascular access for HD created between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2010 (N = 510 000) were included. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incident vascular access use rates and mortality. Relative mortality was quantified using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. Coarsened exact matching and propensity score-matching techniques were used to better account for confounding by indication. RESULTS: Of 510 000 patients included in this study, 82.6% initiated HD via HC, 14.0% via AVF, and 3.4% via AVG. Arteriovenous fistula use increased only minimally, from 12.2% in 2006 to 15.0% in 2010. Patients initiating HD with AVF had 35% lower mortality than those with HC (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.64-0.66; P < .001). Those initiating HD with AVF had 23% lower mortality than those initiating with an HC while awaiting maturation of an AVF (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.76-0.79; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Current incident AVF practice falls exceedingly short years after recommendations were made in 1997. The impact of this shortcoming on mortality for patients with end-stage renal disease is enormous. Functioning permanent access at initiation of HD confers lower mortality even compared with patients temporized with an HC while awaiting maturation of permanent access. A change of current policies and structured multidisciplinary efforts are required to establish matured fistulae prior to HD to ameliorate this deficit in delivering care.

Our website uses cookies to enhance your experience. By continuing to use our site, or clicking "Continue," you are agreeing to our Cookie Policy | Continue JAMA Surgery HomeNew OnlineCurrent IssueFor Authors Podcast Publications JAMA JAMA Network Open JAMA Cardiology JAMA Dermatology JAMA Health Forum JAMA Internal Medicine JAMA Neurology JAMA Oncology JAMA Ophthalmology JAMA Otolaryngology–Head & Neck Surgery JAMA Pediatrics JAMA Psychiatry JAMA Surgery Archives of Neurology & Psychiatry (1919-1959) JN Learning / CMESubscribeJobsInstitutions / LibrariansReprints & Permissions Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Accessibility Statement 2023 American Medical Association. All Rights Reserved Search All JAMA JAMA Network Open JAMA Cardiology JAMA Dermatology JAMA Forum Archive JAMA Health Forum JAMA Internal Medicine JAMA Neurology JAMA Oncology JAMA Ophthalmology JAMA Otolaryngology–Head & Neck Surgery JAMA Pediatrics JAMA Psychiatry JAMA Surgery Archives of Neurology & Psychiatry Input Search Term Sign In Individual Sign In Sign inCreate an Account Access through your institution Sign In Purchase Options: Buy this article Rent this article Subscribe to the JAMA Surgery journal

This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in The Review of Financial Studies following peer review. The version of record Christoffersen, P., Goyenko, R., Jacobs, K., Karoui, M. (2017). Illiquidity Premia in the Equity Options Market, The Review of Financial Studies, Volume 31, Issue 3. Pages 811–851, https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx113 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx113.

Over the last few years an amazing amount of interest has emerged for applications of micro electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) in telecommunications. Silicon-based optical MEMS have proven to be the technology of choice for low-cost scalable photonic applications because they allow mass manufacturing of highly accurate miniaturized parts, and use materials with excellent mechanical and electrical properties. Applications include tunable lasers, optical switches, and tunable filters. The use of MEMS for optical switching has turned out to be most attractive since this application could revolutionize fiber optic telecommunications. We discuss the technology, performance, and reliability of 2D MEMS optical switches. We show that this technology meets the scalability, performance, and reliability requirements for important applications in fiber optic networks.

Importance: Robotic-assisted cholecystectomy is rapidly being adopted into practice, partly based on the belief that it offers specific technical and safety advantages over traditional laparoscopic surgery. Whether robotic-assisted cholecystectomy is safer than laparoscopic cholecystectomy remains unclear. Objective: To determine the uptake of robotic-assisted cholecystectomy and to analyze its comparative safety vs laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used Medicare administrative claims data for nonfederal acute care hospitals from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2019. Participants included 1 026 088 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries 66 to 99 years of age who underwent cholecystectomy with continuous Medicare coverage for 3 months before and 12 months after surgery. Data were analyzed August 17, 2022, to June 1, 2023. Exposure: Surgical technique used to perform cholecystectomy: robotic-assisted vs laparoscopic approaches. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was rate of bile duct injury requiring definitive surgical reconstruction within 1 year after cholecystectomy. Secondary outcomes were composite outcome of bile duct injury requiring less-invasive postoperative surgical or endoscopic biliary interventions, and overall incidence of 30-day complications. Multivariable logistic analysis was performed adjusting for patient factors and clustered within hospital referral regions. An instrumental variable analysis was performed, leveraging regional variation in the adoption of robotic-assisted cholecystectomy within hospital referral regions over time, to account for potential confounding from unmeasured differences between treatment groups. Results: A total of 1 026 088 patients (mean [SD] age, 72 [12.0] years; 53.3% women) were included in the study. The use of robotic-assisted cholecystectomy increased 37-fold from 211 of 147 341 patients (0.1%) in 2010 to 6507 of 125 211 patients (5.2%) in 2019. Compared with laparoscopic cholecystectomy, robotic-assisted cholecystectomy was associated with a higher rate of bile duct injury necessitating a definitive operative repair within 1 year (0.7% vs 0.2%; relative risk [RR], 3.16 [95% CI, 2.57-3.75]). Robotic-assisted cholecystectomy was also associated with a higher rate of postoperative biliary interventions, such as endoscopic stenting (7.4% vs 6.0%; RR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.16-1.33]). There was no significant difference in overall 30-day complication rates between the 2 procedures. The instrumental variable analysis, which was designed to account for potential unmeasured differences in treatment groups, also showed that robotic-assisted cholecystectomy was associated with a higher rate of bile duct injury (0.4% vs 0.2%; RR, 1.88 [95% CI, 1.14-2.63]). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study's finding of significantly higher rates of bile duct injury with robotic-assisted cholecystectomy compared with laparoscopic cholecystectomy suggests that the utility of robotic-assisted cholecystectomy should be reconsidered, given the existence of an already minimally invasive, predictably safe laparoscopic approach.

OBJECTIVE: Decreased postural stability is a common problem associated with hemiparesis secondary to stroke. The purpose of this study was to evaluate dynamic postural control in patients with hemiparesis and in normal subjects matched for age. DESIGN: Quantitative posturography (EquiTest System) was performed to assess the response of subjects to sudden perturbations. A total of 59 patients with hemiparesis and 98 healthy volunteers were evaluated. All the patients were able to walk inside their house without lower limb orthoses. Both the patients and the healthy volunteers were subjected to forward and backward perturbations while standing on a movable force platform. Balance responses were analyzed in terms of weight symmetry, latency, amplitude (relative response strength), and strength symmetry. They were also subjected to toes-up and toes-down perturbations to evaluate their response to a disruptive balance force. RESULTS: The response latency to perturbations was longer and the response strength was weaker on the paretic side of patients with hemiparesis. The dynamic postural control was impaired in patients with hemiparesis as compared with healthy subjects. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that patients with hemiparesis tend to fall easily and that the risk of falls toward the paretic side is high.

Importance: Previous work shows women who have children during surgical residency face difficulty balancing childbearing with training, which negatively affects residency and career satisfaction. Little is known about the factors that drive professional discontent. Objective: To determine factors associated with professional dissatisfaction for childbearing residents. Design, Setting, and Participants: Self-administered survey questionnaire electronically distributed through the Association of Program Directors in Surgery, the Association of Women Surgeons, and targeted Twitter and Facebook platforms. The survey was distributed in January 2017 to surgeons who delivered at least 1 child during a US general surgery residency and was available online for 4 weeks. Main Outcomes and Measures: Respondents were reported to be dissatisfied with their residency if they indicated agreement that they considered leaving residency owing to challenges surrounding childbearing (considered leaving). Respondents were reported to be unhappy with their career if they indicated agreement with statements that (1) given an opportunity to revisit their job choice, they would choose a nonsurgical career more accommodating of motherhood (revisit career choice) or (2) they would advise a female medical student against a surgical career owing to difficulties balancing motherhood with the profession (advise against surgery). Logistic regression was used to determine predictors of agreement with each of the 3 statements of professional dissatisfaction. Results: In total, 347 women responded to the survey and reported 452 pregnancies, and the mean (SD) age was 30.5 (2.7) years. One hundred seventy-nine respondents (51.6%) agreed with at least 1 statement of residency or career dissatisfaction. Lack of a formal maternity leave policy was associated with "considered leaving" (odds ratio [OR], 1.83; 95% CI, 1.07-3.10). Perception of stigma during pregnancy was associated with "revisit career choice" (OR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.01-3.19). Changing fellowship plans owing to perceived difficulty balancing motherhood with the originally chosen subspecialty was associated with all 3 markers of residency and career dissatisfaction ("considered leaving" OR, 2.68; 95% CI, 1.30-5.56; "revisit career choice" OR, 2.23; 95% CI, 1.13-4.43; and "advise against surgery" OR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.23-4.84). Conclusions and Relevance: Surgery residents who perceived stigma during pregnancy, did not have a formal institutional maternity leave policy, or altered their fellowship training plans because of challenges of childbearing expressed greater professional dissatisfaction. Mentorship in subspecialty selection and work-life integration, interventions to reduce workplace bias, and identification of obstacles to establishment of maternity leave policies are needed to enhance professional fulfillment for childbearing residents.

IMPORTANCE: Currently, one of the most commonly available biomarkers in the treatment of patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) is the Kirsten rat sarcoma viral oncogene homolog (KRAS); however, the prognostic implications of specific mutations of the KRAS gene are still not well defined. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prognostic impact of specific KRAS mutations on patients undergoing liver resection for CRLM. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This retrospective single-center study was conducted from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2013. Data about specific KRAS mutations for 331 patients who underwent hepatic resection for CRLM at Johns Hopkins Hospital between 2003 and 2013 were analyzed. Clinicopathological characteristics, perioperative details, and outcomes were stratified by specific KRAS mutation at codons 12 and 13. INTERVENTION: Resection of CRLM. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival. RESULTS: A mutated KRAS (mtKRAS) was identified in 91 patients (27.5%). At a median follow-up of 27.4 months, recurrence was observed in 48 patients (52.7%) with mtKRAS and 130 patients (54.2%) with wild-type KRAS (wtKRAS) (P = .82). Median and 5-year survival among patients with mtKRAS was 32.4 months and 32.7%, respectively, vs 58.5 months and 46.9%, respectively, for patients with wtKRAS (P = .02). Patients with KRAS codon 12 mutations had worse OS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.54; 95% CI, 1.05-2.27; P = .03) vs those with wtKRAS, whereas a KRAS codon 13 mutation was not associated with prognosis (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 0.83-2.62; P = .19). Among the 6 most common mutations in codons 12 and 13, only G12V (HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.00-3.17; P = .05) and G12S (HR, 3.33; 95% CI, 1.22-9.10; P = .02) were associated with worse OS compared with patients with wtKRAS (both P < .05). Among patients who recurred, G12V (HR, 2.96; 95% CI, 1.32-6.61; P = .01), G12C (HR, 6.74; 95% CI, 2.05-22.2; P = .002), and G12S mutations (HR, 4.91; 95% CI, 1.52-15.8; P = .01) were associated with worse OS (both P < .05). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: G12V and G12S mutations of codon 12 were independent prognostic factors of worse OS. Among patients who recurred after resection of CRLM, G12V, G12C, and G12S mutations were associated with worse OS. Information on specific KRAS mutations may help individualize therapeutic and surveillance strategies for patients with resected CRLM.

< .05); however, no differences in hospital- or ICU-free days were observed. In conclusion, early platelet administration is associated with improved hemostasis and reduced mortality in severely injured, bleeding patients. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as # NCT01545232.

STUDY DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. OBJECTIVE: To give a systematic overview of effectiveness of percutaneous transforaminal endoscopic discectomy (PTED) compared with open microdiscectomy (OM) in the treatment of lumbar disk herniation (LDH). SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: The current standard procedure for the treatment of sciatica caused by LDH, is OM. PTED is an alternative surgical technique which is thought to be less invasive. It is unclear if PTED has comparable outcomes compared with OM. METHODS: Multiple online databases were systematically searched up to April 2020 for randomized controlled trials and prospective studies comparing PTED with OM for LDH. Primary outcomes were leg pain and functional status. Pooled effect estimates were calculated for the primary outcomes only and presented as standard mean differences (SMD) with their 95% confidence intervals (CI) at short (1-day postoperative), intermediate (3-6 months), and long-term (12 months). RESULTS: We identified 2276 citations, of which eventually 14 studies were included. There was substantial heterogeneity in effects on leg pain at short term. There is moderate quality evidence suggesting no difference in leg pain at intermediate (SMD 0.05, 95% CI -0.10-0.21) and long-term follow-up (SMD 0.11, 95% CI -0.30-0.53). Only one study measured functional status at short-term and reported no differences. There is moderate quality evidence suggesting no difference in functional status at intermediate (SMD -0.09, 95% CI -0.24-0.07) and long-term (SMD -0.11, 95% CI -0.45-0.24). CONCLUSION: There is moderate quality evidence suggesting no difference in leg pain or functional status at intermediate and long-term follow-up between PTED and OM in the treatment of LDH. High quality, robust studies reporting on clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness on the long term are lacking.Level of Evidence: 2.

STUDY DESIGN: Multicenter randomized controlled trial. OBJECTIVE: To compare the efficacy and safety of balloon kyphoplasty (BKP) with nonsurgical management (NSM) during 24 months in patients with painful vertebral compression fractures (VCFs). SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Recently, several large randomized controlled trials have been conducted and reported how vertebral augmentation compares with NSM for patients with acute VCFs. Few of these trials report on the surgical aspects and radiographical vertebral deformity results. METHODS: Adults with 1 to 3 VCFs were randomized within 3 months of pain to undergo bilateral BKP (n = 149) or NSM (n = 151). Surgical parameters, subjective quality of life assessments and objective functional (timed up and go) and radiographical assessments were collected. RESULTS: Compared with NSM, the BKP group had greater improvements in SF-36 physical component summary (PCS) scores at 1 month (5.35 points; 95% CI, 3.41-7.30; P < 0.0001) and when averaged across the 24 months (overall treatment effect 2.71 points; 95% CI, 1.34-4.09; P = 0.0001). The kyphoplasty group also had greater functionality by assessing timed up and go (overall treatment effect -2.49 s; 95% CI, -0.82 to -4.15; P = 0.0036). At 24 months, the change in index fracture kyphotic angulation was statistically significantly improved in the kyphoplasty group (average 3.13° of correction for kyphoplasty compared with 0.82° in the control, P = 0.003). Number of baseline prevalent fractures (P = 0.0003) and treatment assignment (P = 0.004) are the most predictive variables for PCS improvement; however, in patients who underwent BKP, there may also be a link with kyphotic angulation. In BKP, the highest quart for kyphotic angulation correction had higher PCS improvement (13.4 points) than the quart having lowest correction of angulation (7.40 points, P = 0.0146 for difference). The most common adverse events temporally related to surgery (i.e., within 30 d) were back pain (20 BKP, 11 NSM) new VCF (11 BKP, 7 NSM), nausea/vomiting (12 BKP, 4 NSM), and urinary tract infection (10 BKP, 3 NSM). Several other adverse events were possibly related to patient positioning in the operating room. CONCLUSION: Compared with NSM, BKP improves patient quality of life and pain averaged during 24 months and results in better improvement of index vertebral body kyphotic angulation. Perioperative complications may be reduced with more care in patient positioning. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 2.

Importance: In 2019, the US Food and Drug Administration approved cochlear implantation for children with single-sided deafness (SSD). The absence of robust clinical data specific to pediatric patients to guide shared decision-making and to identify potential advantages is a challenge in family counseling. Objective: To evaluate the audiological and patient-reported outcomes in children who underwent cochlear implantation for SSD and to assess the association between time of implantation, subjective outcomes, and cochlear implant device use rates. Data Source: MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane, and PubMed were searched for English-language articles that were published in a peer-reviewed journal from database inception to February 18, 2020. Study Selection: Inclusion criteria were designed to capture studies that evaluated pediatric patients (1) younger than 18 years, (2) with a diagnosis of SSD for which they underwent a cochlear implantation, and (3) with at least 1 outcome of interest measured numerically: speech perception, sound localization, device use, and patient-reported outcomes. Of the 526 articles reviewed, 12 (2.3%) met the selection criteria. Data Extraction and Synthesis: The Meta-analyses Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) reporting guidelines were followed. Data were pooled using fixed-effect and random-effect models. The following information was obtained from each article: study characteristics, patient characteristics, hearing loss and intervention characteristics, and outcomes. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes were (1) postoperative changes in speech perception (in quiet was measured as a proportion of correct responses, and in noise was measured as decibel signal to noise ratio for speech reception threshold) and sound localization (measured in degree of localization error), (2) patient-reported audiological outcomes (measured by the speech, spatial, and qualities of hearing scale), and (3) device use rates among children who received cochlear implantation for SSD. Results: Twelve observational studies that evaluated 119 children (mean [SD] age, 6.6 [4.0] years) with SSD who received a cochlear implant were included. Most children showed clinically meaningful improvement in speech perception in noise (39 of 49 children [79.6%]) and in quiet (34 of 42 children [81.0%]). Long duration of deafness (>4 years in congenital SSD and >7 years in perilingual SSD) was the most commonly proposed reason for lack of improvement. Sound localization as measured by degrees of error from true location (mean difference [MD], -24.78°; 95% CI, -34.16° to -15.40°; I2 = 10%) improved statistically significantly after cochlear implantation. Patients with acquired SSD and shorter duration of deafness compared with those with congenital SSD reported greater improvements in speech (MD, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.89-2.65 vs 1.58; 95% CI, 1.00-2.16) and spatial (MD, 2.95; 95% CI, 2.66-3.24 vs 1.68; 95% CI, 0.96-2.39) hearing qualities. The duration of deafness among device nonusers was statistically significantly longer than the duration of deafness among regular device users (median difference, 6.84; 95% CI, 4.02-9.58). Conclusions and Relevance: This systematic review and meta-analysis found that cochlear implantation for children with SSD was associated with clinically meaningful improvements in audiological and patient-reported outcomes; shorter duration of deafness may lead to better outcomes. These findings can guide future research efforts, refine cochlear implantation candidacy criteria, and aid in family counseling and shared decision-making.