Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework 2030 calls for the conservation of 30% of the world’s ecosystems, focusing on protecting areas vital to biodiversity, identifying and managing invasive species introduction pathways, and minimizing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. While protected areas (PAs) have historically limited the introduction, establishment, and spread of non-native species, climate change is likely to increase their susceptibility to invasion. Yet we know little about how pathways may shift in the future, making it difficult for managers to plan appropriately. This paper explores how climate change may affect primary and secondary pathways of introduction and presents an adaptive management approach to avoid, minimize, and mitigate impacts. Climate change has influenced introduction pathways by modifying human behaviors (e.g., forced migration and shifting travel and vacation destinations), and by altering transportation routes, natural dispersal mechanisms, and the environmental conditions along these pathways and in donor and receiver regions. These changes increase the risk of non-native species introductions and their subsequent spread within PAs. Implementing climate-smart adaptive biosecurity, an iterative process that includes the incorporation of new technologies and perspectives, will become increasingly important for invasive species prevention and management of PAs as it provides flexibility in management response and maximizes positive outcomes when resources are limited.

Abstract Conservation translocations are an established method for reducing the extinction risk of plant species through intentional movement within or outside the indigenous range. Unsuitable environmental conditions at translocation recipient sites and a lack of understanding of species–environment relationships are often identified as critical barriers to translocation success. However, previous syntheses have drawn these inferences from analyses of qualitative feedback rather than quantitative environmental data. In this study, we use a data set of 235 translocations conducted in the US to understand the influences of geographic and environmental factors on three metrics of translocation success: population persistence, next‐generation recruitment and next‐generation maturity. We use random forest models to quantify the relative importance of geographic and environmental factors that characterize dissimilarity between source and recipient locations, the position of recipient sites relative to species' ranges and niche metrics derived from these ranges. We also compare the importance of these variables with more conventional predictors (e.g. founder population size). Our results indicate that geographic and environmental variables can be as insightful as conventional variables for predicting plant translocation outcomes. The climate suitability of recipient sites, estimated using species distribution models, was the strongest relative predictor of whether a population persisted, with populations situated in more suitable climates displaying greater persistence. Next‐generation recruitment and maturity were best predicted by niche metrics; species in more biotically limiting environments, including tropical regions and soils with high relative nutrient retention, as well as species with the broadest precipitation niches, were the least likely to attain these next‐generation benchmarks. Synthesis and applications. Our study is one of the first to quantify the important role of spatial and climatic factors in rare plant translocation outcomes. We provide a novel geographic and environmental perspective on outcomes in plant translocations and demonstrate opportunities to improve translocation success not only by adhering to established best practice guidelines but also by integrating spatial modelling approaches into planning and management processes.

Considerable effort and resources have been placed into conservation programs designed to reduce or alleviate negative environmental effects of crop production and into evaluation of the benefits of these programs. Wetlands are an important source of ecosystem services, but modeling wetland plants is an emerging science. To date, wetland plant growth has not been explicitly accounted for in ecosystem service models that quantify conservation program effects. As part of an effort to more accurately simulate wetland plants within process-based models, we expanded upon plant growth data collected in an earlier effort with additional sampling at two of four previously sampled areas, and included a fifth sampling site. We then used data from the five sites spanning five years as wetland plant parameters at both the species and functional group levels for the Agricultural Land Management Alternative with Numerical Assessment Criteria (ALMANAC) model. In addition to individual species, modelers are interested in functional groups representing a collection of species because it is unrealistic to model every species occurring in an ecosystem. ALMANAC simulations were completed at three sites for both individual wetland plant species and functional groups. At each site, simulated plant yields were within 1 Mg ha–1 (±7%) of measured values (r2 = 0.99). Multisite species simulated yields were within 37% of measured values (r2 = 0.95). Functional groups performed as well as individual species simulations. Functional group simulated yields were within 1 Mg ha–1 (±5%) of measured yields. Plant growth is a major component of these wetland ecosystems, and ALMANAC verified wetland plant parameters support more accurate assessments of conservation programs and practices on the influence of wetland ecosystems embedded within agricultural fields. The improved plant parameters we provide here will be transferred to other process-based models that focus on other ecosystem components such as soil and water effects, facilitating wetland evaluations across the United States and elsewhere.

About this Report This report draws on the latest meteorological and oceanographic data and information to describe historical change in Pacific Island climate. There is significant demand at regional, national and local community levels within the Pacific Islands for science-based climate data and information to inform decision-making, including high-quality monitoring, analysis, and communication of observed and future climate change. At the 15th Pacific Islands Forum in Funafuti, Tuvalu in 2019, leaders called on “the international community to immediately increase support and assistance for Pacific-led science-based initiatives intended to improve our understanding of risk and vulnerability, as well as build capacity for evidence-based decision-making and project development”. Members of the 4th Pacific Meteorological Council (PMC), in Honiara in 2017, welcomed the renewed focus on climate change science, especially underpinning meteorology and climate services. This report was produced by the WMO RA V Pacific Regional Climate Center (RCC) Network https://www.pacificmet.net/rcc, specifically members of the Nodes on Climate Monitoring and Climate Change Projections. The WMO RA V Pacific RCC Network is a virtual center of excellence for supporting national meteorological services with up-to-date regional long-range climate forecasts, climate monitoring products, climate change projections, climate data services, and information on regional training activities. The RCC Network was endorsed by PMC-4 and is currently in a demonstration phase. The node on Climate Monitoring is co-led by NOAA and the University of Hawaiʻi, while the node on Climate Change Projections is led by Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). Consortium members include the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP), and The Pacific Community (SPC). Author invitations were extended to the Pacific Meteorological Council (PMC) member countries. The regional indicators described here are intended to provide: meaningful regionally and locally relevant information about the status and trends of key physical, biological, and chemical variables in light of a rapidly changing climate; and information in a form that is accessible and useful to a wide variety of stakeholders in the public and private sectors, as well as the education and scientific communities. This will assist communication and inform decisions on management, research, and education.

E ulu ē E ulu kini o ke Akua Ulu a‘e ‘o Kāne me Kanaloa Ulu ka ‘Ōhi‘a a lau ka wai Ka ‘Ie‘ie Ulu a‘e ke Akua a noho i kona kahu Eia ka wai lā He wai ola E ola ia‘u i ke kumu E ola i ke po‘o, ke po‘o pua‘a E ola i ka pae, ka paepae E ola i nā haumana, nā haumana a pau ‘Eli‘eli kapu, ‘eli‘eli noa In this Pule Ho‘oulu (prayer for inspiration), we are calling ourselves and you, the reader, to embrace growth and perpetuation of life’s many sacred manifestations, to honour the guardians of our places and the sources of our knowledge, and affirm the profound responsibility that is conservation management. This chant initiates the process of kuahu, an altar of Native Hawaiian spiritual practice within Hālau ‘Ōhi‘a, a ritual-based stewardship program in Hawai‘i led by Kumu (master teacher, a primary holder and source of knowledge for the community) Kekuhi Kealiikanakaoleohaililani. This paper outlines how the kuahu process has advanced learner capacity to embrace the many sacred dimensions of resource stewardship, thereby transforming conservation biology, and related conservation practices, through Indigenous perspectives. We examine themes evoked during the kuahu process at scales spanning the universal, the regional, and the personal. In doing so, we describe how kuahu practice can serve as a coparticipant, catalyst, and portal to sacred conservation, allowing learners to engage and grow more personal relationships with the environment, our communities, and ourselves.

Significant movements across the world indicate a shift from conventional information exchange within academia to empowering relational approaches in applied research, such as engaging with place-based knowledge systems. Much of this redirection has occurred through the engagement of Indigenous knowledge systems and multidisciplinary approaches, as well as collaborations with federal agencies and university extension networks, thereby elevating holistic knowledge forms that possess a strong capacity to influence human behavior. This case study highlights the value of moving beyond short-term, one-off research projects and outdated, dysfunctional data exchange paradigms within research, science education, and science communication. Instead, we highlight the capacities of long-term relational approaches within higher education and adaptation science that empower data usage on the ground and hold strong capacity to drive human behavior by engaging a diversity of knowledge forms (e.g., emotion). Specifically, we report on the interpersonal linkages, expanding networks, and output from a series of community-driven graduate research projects. Utilizing a narrative approach, we place a research team's affective relationships and demonstrated trust within a more-than-human metaphor of contemporary outrigger canoe paddling. Rather than theoretical advancement, this paper shares an example of what relational approaches look like in action within the Kapukapu community on Hawaiʻi Island.

ABSTRACT In this viewpoint, we provide a scientific justification for a statewide, standardized, coastal wetland monitoring program for Hawaiʻi, USA. Hawaiian coastal wetlands provide important habitat for endangered waterbirds, invertebrates, plants, and the Hawaiian hoary bat (ʻōpeʻapeʻa; Lasiurus semotus) as well as support Indigenous food systems. Currently, numerous agencies and groups in Hawaiʻi collect data on coastal wetlands, but information is not typically shared and methods are not standardized. A statewide, standardized, coastal wetland monitoring program with a centralized database would allow managers to keep better track of progress toward restoration goals, population changes of conservation‐reliant species, outbreaks and impacts of avian botulism, rates of coastal salinization, and many other critical issues across space and time. Monitoring combined with targeted research could fill critical knowledge gaps about the types, functions, values, and biodiversity of Hawaiian coastal wetlands. Ultimately, the improved knowledge gained from long‐term coastal wetland monitoring could inform landscape‐scale restoration actions and adaptive management of coastal wetlands under sea‐level rise and climate change.

Abstract Climate-mediated shifts in species distributions are reshaping ecosystems worldwide, creating major challenges for conservation and resource management. These range shifts have far-reaching ecological and socio-economic consequences, requiring managers to address complex ecological dynamics while navigating diverse regulatory and value systems. Despite growing attention, key gaps remain in supporting management, from improved understanding of the mechanisms of range shifts, to evaluating the effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies, and tailoring science to the institutional and social contexts of decision-making. Central challenges include scaling processes across space, time, and organizational levels, and reconciling mismatches between biogeographical and management scales. Progress will depend on more comprehensive datasets to assess outcomes across taxa and regions, stronger cross-jurisdictional cooperation, and decision frameworks that integrate uncertainty alongside multiple value systems. Addressing these gaps is essential to make research more actionable and to enable successful management of species redistribution.

Abstract Islands are biodiversity hotspots but are highly vulnerable to invasive species that threaten natural resources, food security, economies, cultural practices, and public health. In this article, we synthesize invasive species challenges on US and US-affiliated islands and develop informed recommendations to strengthen biosecurity and management strategies. We highlight three priority areas for federal action: social, economic, and capacity conditions; terrestrial and marine biosecurity; and control measures and long-term restoration. Our key findings emphasize the critical need for better prevention at ports of entry and stronger multiagency coordination, which would also reduce invasion risks to the continent and bolster US national security. Lessons from successful global island programs stress the importance of collaborative governance, community engagement, and innovation. Although they are grounded in the US context, our findings have global relevance for improving island resilience, protecting biodiversity, and enhancing socioeconomic and cultural stability.

Droughts in the Pacific Islands can be extremely severe, causing drinking water shortages, extensive crop damage, and increases in the size, severity, and extent of wildfires that burn incredibly large percentages of island land areas. A recent analysis of historical drought in Hawai‘i found that drought duration, magnitude, and frequency have all increased significantly, consistent with trends found in other Pacific Islands. While land managers are tasked with utilizing the “best available science”, they often are confronted with data products that are difficult to access and there is no facilitated communication process with researchers to meet the needs of resource managers.The Pacific Drought Knowledge Exchange (PDKE) was established in 2019 to facilitate drought knowledge exchange and enable collaborative relationships among drought stakeholders in Hawai‘i and in Pacific Island Nations and territories. We use an iterative approach to co-produce site-specific, customized drought data and products based on the needs of our partners, including factsheets and decision support tools. Through active engagement between researchers and end users, we strive to make drought and climate data products more accessible to managers for drought planning and management.Since the pilot phase in 2019, the PDKE has expanded to work with over 130 partners across Hawai‘i and Guam, and has begun building relationships in other Pacific Islands. The PDKE has worked with partners across various sectors, including natural resource management, water resource management, and ranching. The PDKE is governed by a stewardship team and regularly seeks input from an advisory council and steering committee through quarterly and annual meetings. The PDKE has co-developed numerous products, including site-specific climate portfolios and a decision support dashboard for ranchers. PDKE output products have been used by partners in various capacities, including in funding proposals, climate change education, and management activity planning. The PDKE can serve as a model for how a successful knowledge exchange process can improve drought management and planning.

This report summarizes the findings from a 2020 survey of natural resource managers in Hawaiʻi to establish a baseline that measured their level of concern about the influence of climate change on invasive species management, compared their access to and understanding of existing downscaled climate information for the state, and identified barriers to success in incorporating climate change into management practices.

Chapter 27 of the 4th U.S. National Climate Assessment, Volume 2, assesses climate impacts, future risks, and adaptation in Hawai‘i and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands. The author team collaboratively developed the chapter’s Key Messages and narrative. Webinars and an informal survey of stakeholders informed the selection of focal sectors. To be inclusive of the vast region and expertise, the authors convened six half-day workshops on key sectors, including remote participation from experts in the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands. In all, the chapter involved more than 60 technical contributors. Authors reviewed major areas of risk and new understanding since the last national assessment, including on issues such as: (1) reliable and safe water supplies, (2) marine and terrestrial ecosystem health, (3) sea level rise and coastal impacts, (4) impacts on community livelihoods and well-being, including Indigenous peoples. Under these climate-related challenges to island sustainability, diverse groups are coming together to combine forward-looking policies with adaptation strategies. An integrated theme throughout the chapter is that early intervention can lower the economic, environmental, and social and cultural costs from a changing climate.