Reykjavík University

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. INTERPRETATION: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

, much of which is attributable to common risk alleles. Here, in a two-stage genome-wide association study of up to 76,755 individuals with schizophrenia and 243,649 control individuals, we report common variant associations at 287 distinct genomic loci. Associations were concentrated in genes that are expressed in excitatory and inhibitory neurons of the central nervous system, but not in other tissues or cell types. Using fine-mapping and functional genomic data, we identify 120 genes (106 protein-coding) that are likely to underpin associations at some of these loci, including 16 genes with credible causal non-synonymous or untranslated region variation. We also implicate fundamental processes related to neuronal function, including synaptic organization, differentiation and transmission. Fine-mapped candidates were enriched for genes associated with rare disruptive coding variants in people with schizophrenia, including the glutamate receptor subunit GRIN2A and transcription factor SP4, and were also enriched for genes implicated by such variants in neurodevelopmental disorders. We identify biological processes relevant to schizophrenia pathophysiology; show convergence of common and rare variant associations in schizophrenia and neurodevelopmental disorders; and provide a resource of prioritized genes and variants to advance mechanistic studies.

A high-resolution deuterium profile is now available along the entire European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dome C ice core, extending this climate record back to marine isotope stage 20.2, approximately 800,000 years ago. Experiments performed with an atmospheric general circulation model including water isotopes support its temperature interpretation. We assessed the general correspondence between Dansgaard-Oeschger events and their smoothed Antarctic counterparts for this Dome C record, which reveals the presence of such features with similar amplitudes during previous glacial periods. We suggest that the interplay between obliquity and precession accounts for the variable intensity of interglacial periods in ice core records.

The global endemic of cardiovascular diseases calls for improved risk assessment and treatment. Here, we describe an association between myocardial infarction (MI) and a common sequence variant on chromosome 9p21. This study included a total of 4587 cases and 12,767 controls. The identified variant, adjacent to the tumor suppressor genes CDKN2A and CDKN2B, was associated with the disease with high significance. Approximately 21% of individuals in the population are homozygous for this variant, and their estimated risk of suffering myocardial infarction is 1.64 times as great as that of noncarriers. The corresponding risk is 2.02 times as great for early-onset cases. The population attributable risk is 21% for MI in general and 31% for early-onset cases.

Bipolar disorder is a heritable mental illness with complex etiology. We performed a genome-wide association study of 41,917 bipolar disorder cases and 371,549 controls of European ancestry, which identified 64 associated genomic loci. Bipolar disorder risk alleles were enriched in genes in synaptic signaling pathways and brain-expressed genes, particularly those with high specificity of expression in neurons of the prefrontal cortex and hippocampus. Significant signal enrichment was found in genes encoding targets of antipsychotics, calcium channel blockers, antiepileptics and anesthetics. Integrating expression quantitative trait locus data implicated 15 genes robustly linked to bipolar disorder via gene expression, encoding druggable targets such as HTR6, MCHR1, DCLK3 and FURIN. Analyses of bipolar disorder subtypes indicated high but imperfect genetic correlation between bipolar disorder type I and II and identified additional associated loci. Together, these results advance our understanding of the biological etiology of bipolar disorder, identify novel therapeutic leads and prioritize genes for functional follow-up studies.

BACKGROUND: Alzheimer's disease is a common debilitating dementia with known heritability, for which 20 late onset susceptibility loci have been identified, but more remain to be discovered. This study sought to identify new susceptibility genes, using an alternative gene-wide analytical approach which tests for patterns of association within genes, in the powerful genome-wide association dataset of the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project Consortium, comprising over 7 m genotypes from 25,580 Alzheimer's cases and 48,466 controls. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In addition to earlier reported genes, we detected genome-wide significant loci on chromosomes 8 (TP53INP1, p = 1.4×10-6) and 14 (IGHV1-67 p = 7.9×10-8) which indexed novel susceptibility loci. SIGNIFICANCE: The additional genes identified in this study, have an array of functions previously implicated in Alzheimer's disease, including aspects of energy metabolism, protein degradation and the immune system and add further weight to these pathways as potential therapeutic targets in Alzheimer's disease.

This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.

Late-onset Alzheimer's disease is a prevalent age-related polygenic disease that accounts for 50-70% of dementia cases. Currently, only a fraction of the genetic variants underlying Alzheimer's disease have been identified. Here we show that increased sample sizes allowed identification of seven previously unidentified genetic loci contributing to Alzheimer's disease. This study highlights microglia, immune cells and protein catabolism as relevant to late-onset Alzheimer's disease, while identifying and prioritizing previously unidentified genes of potential interest. We anticipate that these results can be included in larger meta-analyses of Alzheimer's disease to identify further genetic variants that contribute to Alzheimer's pathology.

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is the most frequent reason cited for the withdrawal of approved drugs from the market and accounts for up to 15% of the cases of acute liver failure. Investigators around the globe have begun to identify and study patients with DILI; several large registries and tissue banks are being established. In order to gain the maximum scientific benefit from these efforts, the definitions and terminology related to the clinical phenotypes of DILI must be harmonized. For this purpose, an international DILI Expert Working Group of clinicians and scientists reviewed current DILI terminology and diagnostic criteria so as to develop more uniform criteria that would define and characterize the spectrum of clinical syndromes that constitute DILI. Consensus was established with respect to the threshold criteria for definition of a case as being DILI, the pattern of liver injury, causality assessment, severity, and chronicity. Consensus was also reached on approaches to characterizing DILI in the setting of chronic liver diseases, including autoimmune hepatitis (AIH).

BACKGROUND: The instantaneous wave-free ratio (iFR) is an index used to assess the severity of coronary-artery stenosis. The index has been tested against fractional flow reserve (FFR) in small trials, and the two measures have been found to have similar diagnostic accuracy. However, studies of clinical outcomes associated with the use of iFR are lacking. We aimed to evaluate whether iFR is noninferior to FFR with respect to the rate of subsequent major adverse cardiac events. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, randomized, controlled, open-label clinical trial using the Swedish Coronary Angiography and Angioplasty Registry for enrollment. A total of 2037 participants with stable angina or an acute coronary syndrome who had an indication for physiologically guided assessment of coronary-artery stenosis were randomly assigned to undergo revascularization guided by either iFR or FFR. The primary end point was the rate of a composite of death from any cause, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or unplanned revascularization within 12 months after the procedure. RESULTS: A primary end-point event occurred in 68 of 1012 patients (6.7%) in the iFR group and in 61 of 1007 (6.1%) in the FFR group (difference in event rates, 0.7 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.5 to 2.8; P=0.007 for noninferiority; hazard ratio, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.79 to 1.58; P=0.53); the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval for the difference in event rates fell within the prespecified noninferiority margin of 3.2 percentage points. The results were similar among major subgroups. The rates of myocardial infarction, target-lesion revascularization, restenosis, and stent thrombosis did not differ significantly between the two groups. A significantly higher proportion of patients in the FFR group than in the iFR group reported chest discomfort during the procedure. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with stable angina or an acute coronary syndrome, an iFR-guided revascularization strategy was noninferior to an FFR-guided revascularization strategy with respect to the rate of major adverse cardiac events at 12 months. (Funded by Philips Volcano; iFR SWEDEHEART ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02166736 .).

To characterize type 2 diabetes (T2D)-associated variation across the allele frequency spectrum, we conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association data from 26,676 T2D case and 132,532 control subjects of European ancestry after imputation using the 1000 Genomes multiethnic reference panel. Promising association signals were followed up in additional data sets (of 14,545 or 7,397 T2D case and 38,994 or 71,604 control subjects). We identified 13 novel T2D-associated loci (P < 5 × 10−8), including variants near the GLP2R, GIP, and HLA-DQA1 genes. Our analysis brought the total number of independent T2D associations to 128 distinct signals at 113 loci. Despite substantially increased sample size and more complete coverage of low-frequency variation, all novel associations were driven by common single nucleotide variants. Credible sets of potentially causal variants were generally larger than those based on imputation with earlier reference panels, consistent with resolution of causal signals to common risk haplotypes. Stratification of T2D-associated loci based on T2D-related quantitative trait associations revealed tissue-specific enrichment of regulatory annotations in pancreatic islet enhancers for loci influencing insulin secretion and in adipocytes, monocytes, and hepatocytes for insulin action–associated loci. These findings highlight the predominant role played by common variants of modest effect and the diversity of biological mechanisms influencing T2D pathophysiology.

BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

The study of school bullying has recently assumed an international dimension, but is faced with difficulties in finding terms in different languages to correspond to the English word bullying. To investigate the meanings given to various terms, a set of 25 stick-figure cartoons was devised, covering a range of social situations between peers. These cartoons were shown to samples of 8- and 14-year-old pupils (N = 1,245; n = 604 at 8 years, n = 641 at 14 years) in schools in 14 different countries, who judged whether various native terms cognate to bullying, applied to them. Terms from 10 Indo-European languages and three Asian languages were sampled. Multidimensional scaling showed that 8-year-olds primarily discriminated nonaggressive and aggressive cartoon situations; however, 14-year-olds discriminated fighting from physical bullying, and also discriminated verbal bullying and social exclusion. Gender differences were less appreciable than age differences. Based on the 14-year-old data, profiles of 67 words were then constructed across the five major cartoon clusters. The main types of terms used fell into six groups: bullying (of all kinds), verbal plus physical bullying, solely verbal bullying, social exclusion, solely physical aggression, and mainly physical aggression. The findings are discussed in relation to developmental trends in how children understand bullying, the inferences that can be made from cross-national studies, and the design of such studies.

Key Points Whole-genome sequencing of 11 262 Icelanders reveals that clonal hematopoiesis is very common in the elderly. Somatic mutation of some genes is strongly associated with clonal hematopoiesis, but in most cases, no driver mutations were evident.

BACKGROUND: Mutations in the gene for cardiac myosin-binding protein C account for approximately 15 percent of cases of familial hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The spectrum of disease-causing mutations and the associated clinical features of these gene defects are unknown. METHODS: DNA sequences encoding cardiac myosin-binding protein C were determined in unrelated patients with familial hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Mutations were found in 16 probands, who had 574 family members at risk of inheriting these defects. The genotypes of these family members were determined, and the clinical status of 212 family members with mutations in the gene for cardiac myosin-binding protein C was assessed. RESULTS: Twelve novel mutations were identified in probands from 16 families. Four were missense mutations; eight defects (insertions, deletions, and splice mutations) were predicted to truncate cardiac myosin-binding protein C. The clinical expression of either missense or truncation mutations was similar to that observed for other genetic causes of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, but the age at onset of the disease differed markedly. Only 58 percent of adults under the age of 50 years who had a mutation in the cardiac myosin-binding protein C gene (68 of 117 patients) had cardiac hypertrophy; disease penetrance remained incomplete through the age of 60 years. Survival was generally better than that observed among patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy caused by other mutations in the genes for sarcomere proteins. Most deaths due to cardiac causes in these families occurred suddenly. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical expression of mutations in the gene for cardiac myosin-binding protein C is often delayed until middle age or old age. Delayed expression of cardiac hypertrophy and a favorable clinical course may hinder recognition of the heritable nature of mutations in the cardiac myosin-binding protein C gene. Clinical screening in adult life may be warranted for members of families characterized by hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

Well‐documented present‐day distributions of stable water isotopes (HDO and H 2 18 O) show the existence, in middle and high latitudes, of a linear relationship between the mean annual isotope content of precipitation (δD and δ 18 O) and the mean annual temperature at the precipitation site. Paleoclimatologists have used this relationship, which is particularly well obeyed over Greenland and Antarctica, to infer paleotemperatures from ice core data. There is, however, growing evidence that spatial and temporal isotope/surface temperature slopes differ, thus complicating the use of stable water isotopes as paleothermometers. In this paper we review empirical estimates of temporal slopes in polar regions and relevant information that can be inferred from isotope models: simple, Rayleigh‐type distillation models and (particularly over Greenland) general circulation models (GCMs) fitted with isotope tracer diagnostics. Empirical estimates of temporal slopes appear consistently lower than present‐day spatial slopes and are dependent on the timescale considered. This difference is most probably due to changes in the evaporative origins of moisture, changes in the seasonality of the precipitation, changes in the strength of the inversion layer, or some combination of these changes. Isotope models have not yet been used to evaluate the relative influences of these different factors. The apparent disagreement in the temporal and spatial slopes clearly makes calibrating the isotope paleothermometer difficult. Nevertheless, the use of a (calibrated) isotope paleothermometer appears justified; empirical estimates and most (though not all) GCM results support the practice of interpreting ice core isotope records in terms of local temperature changes.

Proteins circulating in the blood are critical for age-related disease processes; however, the serum proteome has remained largely unexplored. To this end, 4137 proteins covering most predicted extracellular proteins were measured in the serum of 5457 Icelanders over 65 years of age. Pairwise correlation between proteins as they varied across individuals revealed 27 different network modules of serum proteins, many of which were associated with cardiovascular and metabolic disease states, as well as overall survival. The protein modules were controlled by cis- and trans-acting genetic variants, which in many cases were also associated with complex disease. This revealed co-regulated groups of circulating proteins that incorporated regulatory control between tissues and demonstrated close relationships to past, current, and future disease states.

DryadLINQ is a system and a set of language extensions that enable a new programming model for large scale dis-tributed computing. It generalizes previous execution en-vironments such as SQL, MapReduce, and Dryad in two ways: by adopting an expressive data model of strongly typed.NET objects; and by supporting general-purpose imperative and declarative operations on datasets within a traditional high-level programming language. A DryadLINQ program is a sequential program com-posed of LINQ expressions performing arbitrary side-effect-free transformations on datasets, and can be writ-ten and debugged using standard.NET development tools. The DryadLINQ system automatically and trans-parently translates the data-parallel portions of the pro-gram into a distributed execution plan which is passed to the Dryad execution platform. Dryad, which has been in continuous operation for several years on production clusters made up of thousands of computers, ensures ef-ficient, reliable execution of this plan. We describe the implementation of the DryadLINQ compiler and runtime. We evaluate DryadLINQ on a varied set of programs drawn from domains such as web-graph analysis, large-scale log mining, and machine learning. We show that excellent absolute performance can be attained—a general-purpose sort of 1012 Bytes of data executes in 319 seconds on a 240-computer, 960-disk cluster—as well as demonstrating near-linear scal-ing of execution time on representative applications as we vary the number of computers used for a job. 1

BACKGROUND: An increased prevalence of asthma/recurrent wheeze (RW), clinical allergy and allergic sensitisation up to age 13 years has previously been reported in subjects hospitalised with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis in their first year of life compared with matched controls. A study was undertaken to examine whether these features persist into early adulthood, to report longitudinal wheeze and allergy patterns, and to see how large and small airway function relates to RSV infection and asthma. METHODS: Follow-up at age 18 years was performed in 46 of 47 subjects with RSV and 92 of 93 controls. Assessments included questionnaire, clinical examination, skin prick tests, serum IgE antibodies to inhaled allergens, blood eosinophils, fraction of exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO), spirometry, multiple breath washout (lung clearance index, LCI) and dry air hyperventilation challenge. RESULTS: Increased prevalence of asthma/RW (39% vs 9%), clinical allergy (43% vs 17%) and sensitisation to perennial allergens (41% vs 14%) were present at age 18 in the RSV cohort compared with controls. Persistent/relapsing wheeze associated with early allergic sensitisation predominated in the RSV cohort compared with controls (30% vs 1%). Spirometric function was reduced in subjects with RSV with or without current asthma, but not in asthmatic controls. LCI was linked only to current asthma, airway hyperresponsiveness and FeNO. CONCLUSIONS: Severe early RSV bronchiolitis is associated with an increased prevalence of allergic asthma persisting into early adulthood. Small airway dysfunction (LCI) is related to current asthma and airway inflammation but not to RSV bronchiolitis. Reduced spirometry after RSV may reflect airway remodelling.