SGH Warsaw School of Economics

BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

Abstract This paper assesses the classification performance of the Z‐ Score model in predicting bankruptcy and other types of firm distress, with the goal of examining the model's usefulness for all parties, especially banks that operate internationally and need to assess the failure risk of firms. We analyze the performance of the Z‐ Score model for firms from 31 European and three non‐European countries using different modifications of the original model. This study is the first to offer such a comprehensive international analysis. Except for the United States and China, the firms in the sample are primarily private, and include non‐financial companies across all industrial sectors. We use the original Z ′′‐Score model developed by Altman, Corporate Financial Distress: A Complete Guide to Predicting, Avoiding, and Dealing with Bankruptcy (1983) for private and public manufacturing and non‐manufacturing firms. While there is some evidence that Z‐ Score models of bankruptcy prediction have been outperformed by competing market‐based or hazard models, in other studies, Z‐ Score models perform very well. Without a comprehensive international comparison, however, the results of competing models are difficult to generalize. This study offers evidence that the general Z‐ Score model works reasonably well for most countries (the prediction accuracy is approximately 0.75) and classification accuracy can be improved further (above 0.90) by using country‐specific estimation that incorporates additional variables.

This study reports results from the first International Body Project (IBP-I), which surveyed 7,434 individuals in 10 major world regions about body weight ideals and body dissatisfaction. Participants completed the female Contour Drawing Figure Rating Scale (CDFRS) and self-reported their exposure to Western and local media. Results indicated there were significant cross-regional differences in the ideal female figure and body dissatisfaction, but effect sizes were small across high-socioeconomic-status (SES) sites. Within cultures, heavier bodies were preferred in low-SES sites compared to high-SES sites in Malaysia and South Africa (ds = 1.94-2.49) but not in Austria. Participant age, body mass index (BMI), and Western media exposure predicted body weight ideals. BMI and Western media exposure predicted body dissatisfaction among women. Our results show that body dissatisfaction and desire for thinness is commonplace in high-SES settings across world regions, highlighting the need for international attention to this problem.

In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

Purpose The rapid advancement of digital technologies has fundamentally changed the competitive dynamics of the logistics service industry and forced incumbent logistics service providers (LSPs) to digitalize. As many LSPs still struggle in advancing their digital transformation (DT), the purpose of this study is to discover barriers and identify organizational elements and associated leading practices for DT success at LSPs. Design/methodology/approach This study utilizes a two-stage approach. Stage 1 is devoted to a literature review. Stage 2, based on multiple case studies, analyzes information collected across nine international and global LSPs. Findings This research derives a practice-based definition of DT in the logistics service industry, and it has identified five barriers, eight success factors and associated leading practices for DT. The main obstacles LSPs struggle with, are the complexity of the logistics network and lack of resources, while the main success factor is a leader having and executing a DT vision, and creating a supportive organizational culture. Practical implications The results contribute to the emerging field of DT within the logistics and supply chain management literature and provide insights for practitioners regarding how to effectively implement it in a complex industry. Originality/value The authors analyze DT from the perspective of LSPs, traditionally not viewed as innovative companies. This study compares their DT with that of other companies.

BACKGROUND: Adoption and maintenance of health behaviors are often poorly predicted by behavioral intentions. To bridge the gap between intentions and behavior, strategic planning and recovery self-efficacy have been suggested as proximal predictors. PURPOSE: The aim was to examine the usefulness of a prediction model that includes planning and self-efficacy as postintentional mediator variables. METHODS: Four longitudinal studies were conducted on dental flossing (Study I, N = 157), seat belt use (Study II, N = 298), dietary behaviors (Study III, N = 700), and physical activity (Study IV, N = 365). Dental flossing and seat belt use were assessed in students by paper-and-pencil questionnaires, whereas dietary behavior and physical activity inventories were presented to the general public in the internet. RESULTS: By structural equation modeling, it was found that one common model fits all four data sets well. Results differed in terms of variance accounted for, but the overall patterns of estimated parameters were similar across samples. CONCLUSIONS: Self-efficacy and planning seemed to be functional as proximal predictors of health behaviors, whereas health risk perception appeared to be a negligible factor. When predicting health behaviors, self-regulatory variables should be used in addition to the behavioral intention.

The objective of our study was to systematically review research evidence for relationships between self-efficacy beliefs and psychological as well as somatic outcomes of collective traumatic events. Twenty-seven studies enrolling adult and adolescent survivors of acute, escalating, and chronic collective trauma with a total of N = 8011 participants were reviewed. Cross-sectional studies suggest medium to large effects of self-efficacy on general distress, severity and frequency of PTSD (posttraumatic stress disorder) symptoms (weighted r values range from –.36 to –.77), whereas longitudinal studies indicate large effects on general distress and PTSD symptom severity (weighted r values range: –.55 to –.62). Self-efficacy was also related to better somatic health (self-reported symptoms, i.e., less pain, fatigue, or disability). Studies addressing the relationship between self-efficacy and substance abuse after collective trauma revealed a more complex picture. Some types of pretreatment self-efficacy (e.g., self-efficacy for coping with urges) or changes in efficacy beliefs may predict less substance use or relapses. Studies testing the mediating role of cognitive or social variables in the relationship among efficacy beliefs and health outcomes indicated rather direct, unmediated effects of beliefs about ability to deal with adversities on posttraumatic adaptation. Men may benefit more from stronger efficacy beliefs. In terms of reciprocity between self-efficacy and health, evidence from longitudinal studies suggested that self-efficacy determines health-related outcomes, but changes in diagnosis do not predict changes in self-efficacy. Although a lack of experimental studies limits the conclusions, the results indicated that self-efficacy is a powerful predictor of posttraumatic recovery among collective trauma survivors.

AIM: We sought to determine whether there were differences between men and women with acute stroke in their baseline characteristics and outcome in a large cohort of patients randomized in the International Stroke Trial (IST). METHODS: Of the 19,435 patients randomized in the IST, 17,370 had an ischemic stroke confirmed by CT scan or autopsy (8,003 female and 9,367 male). In males and females, we compared baseline characteristics (age, frequency of atrial fibrillation, pre-stroke administration of aspirin and systolic blood pressure, conscious level, stroke syndrome) and outcome at 14 days and 6 months (death, complications, dependency, recovery, place of residence). We developed a specific logistic regression model to adjust for case-mix in order to evaluate the separate influence of gender on outcome. RESULTS: Female patients were older, suffered more frequently from atrial fibrillation, had higher systolic blood pressure at randomization and generally had more severe strokes (a higher proportion were unconscious or drowsy or had a total anterior circulation syndrome). Females had higher 14-day and 6-month case fatality and were more likely to be dead or dependent at six months (and consequently more likely to require institutional or residential care). Gender was an independent predictor of death or dependency at 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: The adverse effect of female gender on outcome indicates that further research to explore the underlying biological mechanism is justified, and that more intensive acute and long-term treatment may be needed to improve outcome among female patients with stroke.

The rapid increase in courses dealing with cross-cultural management (CCM), brought about by economies' globalization and increased workforce mobility motivated us to examine the impact of cross-cultural management courses on cultural intelligence. Cultural intelligence (CQ) refers to individual's abilities and skills to effectively manage interactions in cross-cultural situations. It includes four dimensions: metacognitive, cognitive, motivational and behavioral. In two multinational longitudinal studies using matched samples and pre- postintervention measures, we assessed the effects of academic CCM courses on students' CQ. We found that after the courses, students' overall CQ was significantly higher than at Time 1. No effects on CQ were detected in the control group, where students worked in multicultural settings but did not take a CCM course. Cross-cultural management courses had stronger effects on metacognitive and cognitive CQ than on motivational and behavioral CQ. We found an interesting pattern regarding students' international experience: While international experience in Time 1 positively related to students' CQ, at Time 2, this relationship became nonsignificant (Study 1). These findings contribute to understanding the antecedents of cultural intelligence and how educational interventions affect it, with practical implications for designing and developing international management education and training programs.

Abstract Despite many convergences in theorizing and research on the two fundamental dimensions of social judgment the operationalizations differ considerably across studies and possible confounds (valence, frequency of word occurrence) are not always controlled. The present study was meant as a first step towards a more standardized operationalization by providing trait words which are clearly distinct in content (agency and communion) but comparable in valence and frequency of word occurrence in written language across different countries. We created a pool of 304 trait adjectives and reduced this pool in several pretests to a list of 69 trait words. These were clearly different in content and covered a large range of valence. In the main study N = 548 participants from five countries (Belgium, Germany, Italy, Poland and USA) rated the 69 trait words on agency, communion and valence. The results were quite consistent across countries. The trait adjectives' agency ratings and communion ratings were negatively correlated; valence was correlated with communal content, but not with agentic content; word frequency was barely related to the content ratings. Cluster analyses suggest four clusters of trait words. Based on these findings we propose sets of agentic and communal trait words which do not differ in valence and word frequency. These item‐sets can serve as a first step towards a standardized operationalization of the two fundamental content dimensions across languages. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abstract This book presents the report on the European economic system, which was submitted to the President of the European Commission in July 2003. The report is divided into three parts. The first contains an assessment of the economic performance in terms of growth, stability, and cohesion. The second explores the challenges facing the European Union. The third presents a series of policy recommendations for the future.

Effects of interventions targeting self-efficacy alone or combined with action plans were examined in the context of fruit and vegetable consumption. E-mail messages were sent to a self-efficacy group, a combined self-efficacy and action planning group and a control group. At a 6-month follow-up, 200 adults reported their fruit and vegetable consumption, along with current levels of self-efficacy and planning. The two experimental groups gained equally from the interventions, as documented by changes in behavior. In both intervention groups, change in respective cognitions predicted change in fruit and vegetable consumption. Parsimonious interventions might contribute to health behavior change.

Since the successful transition to a freely elected parliament and a market economy after 1989, Poland is now a stable democracy and is well represented within political and economic organizations in Europe and worldwide. The strongly centralized health system based on the Semashko model was replaced with a decentralized system of mandatory health insurance, complemented with financing from state and territorial self-government budgets. There is a clear separation of health care financing and provision: the National Health Fund (NFZ) the sole payer in the system is in charge of health care financing and contracts with public and non-public health care providers. The Ministry of Health is the key policy-maker and regulator in the system and is supported by a number of advisory bodies, some of them recently established. Health insurance contributions, borne entirely by employees, are collected by intermediary institutions and are pooled by the NFZ and distributed between the 16 regional NFZ branches. In 2009, Poland spent 7.4% of its gross domestic product (GDP) on health. Around 70% of health expenditure came from public sources and over 83.5% of this expenditure can be attributed to the (near) universal health insurance. The relatively high share of private expenditure is mostly represented by out-of-pocket (OOP) payments, mainly in the form of co-payments and informal payments. Voluntary health insurance (VHI) does not play an important role and is largely limited to medical subscription packages offered by employers. Compulsory health insurance covers 98% of the population and guarantees access to a broad range of health services. However, the limited financial resources of the NFZ mean that broad entitlements guaranteed on paper are not always available. Health care financing is overall at most proportional: while financing from health care contributions is proportional and budgetary subsidies to system funding are progressive, high OOP expenditures, particularly in areas such as pharmaceuticals, are highly regressive. The health status of the Polish population has improved substantially, with average life expectancy at birth reaching 80.2 years for women and 71.6 years for men in 2009. However, there is still a vast gap in life expectancy between Poland and the western European Union (EU) countries and between life expectancy overall and the expected number of years without illness or disability. Given its modest financial, human and material health care resources and the corresponding outcomes, the overall financial efficiency of the Polish system is satisfactory. Both allocative and technical efficiency leave room for improvement. Several measures, such as prioritizing primary care and adopting new payment mechanisms such as diagnosis-related groups (DRGs), have been introduced in recent years but need to be expanded to other areas and intensified. Additionally, numerous initiatives to enhance quality control and build the required expertise and evidence base for the system are also in place. These could improve general satisfaction with the system, which is not particularly high. Limited resources, a general aversion to cost-sharing stemming from a long experience with broad public coverage and shortages in health workforce need to be addressed before better outcomes can be achieved by the system. Increased cooperation between various bodies within the health and social care sectors would also contribute in this direction. The HiT profiles are country-based reports that provide a detailed description of a health system and of policy initiatives in progress or under development. HiTs examine different approaches to the organization, financing and delivery of health services, and the role of the main actors in health systems; they describe the institutional framework, process, content and implementation of health and health care policies; and highlight challenges and areas that require more in-depth analysis.

Implementation intention formation promotes effective goal striving and goal attainment. However, little research has investigated whether implementation intentions promote behaviour change when people possess strong antagonistic habits. Experiment 1 developed relatively habitual responses that, after a task switch, had a detrimental impact on task performance. Forming an if-then plan reduced the negative impact of habit on performance. However, the effect of forming implementation intentions was smaller among participants who possessed strong habits as compared to participants who had weaker habits. Experiment 2 provided a field test of the role of habit strength in moderating the relationship between implementation intentions and behaviour in the context of smoking. Implementation intentions reduced smoking among participants with weak or moderate smoking habits, but not among participants with strong smoking habits. In summary, habit strength moderates the effectiveness of if-then plan formation in breaking unwanted habits.

This article investigates the influence of family involvement on firm performance in an emerging market economy. Using a panel of 217 Polish companies from 1997 to 2005, the authors find an inverted U-shaped relationship between the share of family ownership and firm performance. The data also reveal that firms with family CEOs are likely to outperform their counterparts that have nonfamily CEOs. The results take into account the endogeneity of family ownership and are robust to a number of specification checks.

Abstract Boards of directors have recently become more attentive to their stakeholders' concerns, providing more transparent information and adopting more sustainable business strategies. This study investigates the influence of a critical mass of women on boards on the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosure score and its three components separately. Using a sample of the FTSE‐MIB listed companies in the 2005–2017 period, we show that reaching a critical mass of female board members—going from one or two women to at least three—enhances the level of ESG disclosure. The results also show that the critical mass of female board members has a positive influence on every component of the ESG score, with the highest contribution of women reaching the governance score. These findings provide insights to shareholders and policymakers and suggest that a critical mass of female board members is particularly effective in improving transparency, and it can be seen as a mechanism to transit to stakeholder governance, fostering more sustainable behavior in firms.

Abstract Many studies stress the importance of understanding actions within sustainable development to prevent risks brought by companies. Environment, social factors, corporate governance (ESG) as well as reputation are even more important risk factors. In turn, companies can take corporate social responsibility (CSR) actions to avoid ESG and reputational risk. The aim of the article is to analyze the role of CSR in risk mitigation. The study includes content analysis of integrated reports in terms of reporting information on both risk and CSR activities such as stakeholder engagement or environmental policy. The companies most often indicate governmental risk, followed by social risk. The most common CSR actions are those related to social impact. Despite the fact that the analyzed database of over 120 integrated reports is not fully homogeneous, the conducted research shows a statistically important correlation in categorization of risks and CSR actions. Both statistical analysis and analysis of the content of reports confirms that companies identify their ESG and reputational risks and use CSR actions to mitigate them.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the audit-related causes of financial scandals and advice on how emerging technologies can provide solutions thereto. Specifically, this study seeks to look at the facilitators of financial statement fraud and explain specific fintech advancements that contribute to financial information reliability for equity investments. Design/methodology/approach The study uses the case studies of Enron and Arthur Andersen to document the evidence of audit-related issues in historical financial scandals. Then, a comprehensive and interdisciplinary literature review at the intersection of business, accounting and engineering, provides a foundation to propose technology advancements that can solve identified problems in accounting and auditing. Findings The findings show that blockchain, internet of things, smart contracts and artificial intelligence solutions have different functionality and can effectively solve various financial reporting and audit-related problems. Jointly, they have a strong potential to enhance the reliability of the information in financial statements and generally change how companies operate. Practical implications The proposed and explained technology advancements should be of interest to all publicly listed companies and investors, as they can help safeguard equity investments, thus build investors’ trust towards the company. Social implications Aside from implications for capital markets participants, the study findings can materially benefit various stakeholder groups, the broader company environment and the economy. Originality/value This is the first paper that seeks solutions to financial fraud and audit-related financial scandals in technology and not in implementing yet another regulation. Given the recent technology advancements, the study findings provide insights into how the role of an external auditor might evolve in the future.

This article opens with a review of the main trends in family-related behaviour, i.e. fertility decline and changes in fertility patterns, a decreasing propensity to marry, postponement of marriage, and a slowly increasing frequency of divorces and sep

In this paper, we present a new type of fractional operator, the Caputo–Katugampola derivative. The Caputo and the Caputo–Hadamard fractional derivatives are special cases of this new operator. An existence and uniqueness theorem for a fractional Cauchy-type problem, with dependence on the Caputo–Katugampola derivative, is proved. A decomposition formula for the Caputo–Katugampola derivative is obtained. This formula allows us to provide a simple numerical procedure to solve the fractional differential equation (FDE).