Simón Bolívar University

The human impact on life on Earth has increased sharply since the 1970s, driven by the demands of a growing population with rising average per capita income. Nature is currently supplying more materials than ever before, but this has come at the high cost of unprecedented global declines in the extent and integrity of ecosystems, distinctness of local ecological communities, abundance and number of wild species, and the number of local domesticated varieties. Such changes reduce vital benefits that people receive from nature and threaten the quality of life of future generations. Both the benefits of an expanding economy and the costs of reducing nature's benefits are unequally distributed. The fabric of life on which we all depend-nature and its contributions to people-is unravelling rapidly. Despite the severity of the threats and lack of enough progress in tackling them to date, opportunities exist to change future trajectories through transformative action. Such action must begin immediately, however, and address the root economic, social, and technological causes of nature's deterioration.

Abstract In the Bayesian approach to model selection or hypothesis testing with models or hypotheses of differing dimensions, it is typically not possible to utilize standard noninformative (or default) prior distributions. This has led Bayesians to use conventional proper prior distributions or crude approximations to Bayes factors. In this article we introduce a new criterion called the intrinsic Bayes factor, which is fully automatic in the sense of requiring only standard noninformative priors for its computation and yet seems to correspond to very reasonable actual Bayes factors. The criterion can be used for nested or nonnested models and for multiple model comparison and prediction. From another perspective, the development suggests a general definition of a "reference prior" for model comparison. Key Words: Asymptotic Bayes factorsHypothesis testingNoninformative priorPosterior probabilityTraining sample

BACKGROUND: The rising temperature of the world's oceans has become a major threat to coral reefs globally as the severity and frequency of mass coral bleaching and mortality events increase. In 2005, high ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean resulted in the most severe bleaching event ever recorded in the basin. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Satellite-based tools provided warnings for coral reef managers and scientists, guiding both the timing and location of researchers' field observations as anomalously warm conditions developed and spread across the greater Caribbean region from June to October 2005. Field surveys of bleaching and mortality exceeded prior efforts in detail and extent, and provided a new standard for documenting the effects of bleaching and for testing nowcast and forecast products. Collaborators from 22 countries undertook the most comprehensive documentation of basin-scale bleaching to date and found that over 80% of corals bleached and over 40% died at many sites. The most severe bleaching coincided with waters nearest a western Atlantic warm pool that was centered off the northern end of the Lesser Antilles. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Thermal stress during the 2005 event exceeded any observed from the Caribbean in the prior 20 years, and regionally-averaged temperatures were the warmest in over 150 years. Comparison of satellite data against field surveys demonstrated a significant predictive relationship between accumulated heat stress (measured using NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Degree Heating Weeks) and bleaching intensity. This severe, widespread bleaching and mortality will undoubtedly have long-term consequences for reef ecosystems and suggests a troubled future for tropical marine ecosystems under a warming climate.

Abstract Aim (1) To estimate the local and global magnitude of carbon fluxes between savanna and the atmosphere, and to suggest the significance of savannas in the global carbon cycle. (2) To suggest the extent to which protection of savannas could contribute to a global carbon sequestration initiative. Location Tropical savanna ecosystems in Africa, Australia, India and South America. Methods A literature search was carried out using the ISI Web of Knowledge, and a compilation of extra data was obtained from other literature, including national reports accessed through the personal collections of the authors. Savanna is here defined as any tropical ecosystem containing grasses, including woodland and grassland types. From these data it was possible to estimate the fluxes of carbon dioxide between the entire savanna biome on a global scale. Results Tropical savannas can be remarkably productive, with a net primary productivity that ranges from 1 to 12 t C ha −1 year −1 . The lower values are found in the arid and semi‐arid savannas occurring in extensive regions of Africa, Australia and South America. The global average of the cases reviewed here was 7.2 t C ha −1 year −1 . The carbon sequestration rate (net ecosystem productivity) may average 0.14 t C ha −1 year −1 or 0.39 Gt C year −1 . If savannas were to be protected from fire and grazing, most of them would accumulate substantial carbon and the sink would be larger. Savannas are under anthropogenic pressure, but this has been much less publicized than deforestation in the rain forest biome. The rate of loss is not well established, but may exceed 1% per year, approximately twice as fast as that of rain forests. Globally, this is likely to constitute a flux to the atmosphere that is at least as large as that arising from deforestation of the rain forest. Main conclusions The current rate of loss impacts appreciably on the global carbon balance. There is considerable scope for using many of the savannas as sites for carbon sequestration, by simply protecting them from burning and grazing, and permitting them to increase in stature and carbon content over periods of several decades.

Ecologists have long sought to understand the factors controlling the structure of savanna vegetation. Using data from 2154 sites in savannas across Africa, Australia, and South America, we found that increasing moisture availability drives increases in fire and tree basal area, whereas fire reduces tree basal area. However, among continents, the magnitude of these effects varied substantially, so that a single model cannot adequately represent savanna woody biomass across these regions. Historical and environmental differences drive the regional variation in the functional relationships between woody vegetation, fire, and climate. These same differences will determine the regional responses of vegetation to future climates, with implications for global carbon stocks.

We present a review of recent advances in the statistical associating fluid theory (SAFT). In contrast to the “chemical theory”, in which nonideality is explained in terms of chemical reactions between the species, SAFT and similar approaches relate nonideality to the intermolecular forces involved. Such physical theories can be tested against molecular simulations, and improvements to the theory can be made where needed. We describe the original SAFT approach and more recent modifications to it. Emphasis is placed on pointing out that SAFT is a general method and not a unique equation of state. Applications to a wide variety of fluids and mixtures are reviewed, including aqueous mixtures and electrolytes, liquid−liquid immiscible systems, amphiphilic systems, liquid crystals, polymers, petroleum fluids, and high-pressure phase equilibria.

The Census of Marine Life (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) was the largest global research programme on marine biodiversity. This paper integrated the findings of reviews of major world regions by the Census and provides a global perspective on what is known and what are the major scientific gaps. Study metrics were regional species richness, numbers of endemic and alien species, numbers of species identification guides and taxonomic experts, and a state-ofknowledge index. The threats to biodiversity were classified across the regions. A poor to moderate correlation between species richness and seabed area, and sea volume, and no correlations with topographic variation, were attributed to sparse, uneven and unrepresentative sampling in much of the global marine environment. Many habitats have been poorly sampled, particularly in deeper seas, and several species-rich taxonomic groups, especially of smaller organisms, remain poorly studied. Crustacea, Mollusca, and Pisces comprised approximately half of all known species across the regions. The proportion that these and other taxa comprised of all taxa varied sufficiently to question whether the relative number of species within phyla and classes are constant throughout the world. Overfishing and pollution were identified as the main threats to biodiversity across all regions, followed by alien species, altered temperature, acidification, and hypoxia, although their relative importance varied among regions. The findings were replicated worldwide, in both developed and developing countries: i.e. major gaps exist in sampling effort and taxonomic expertise that impair society's ability to discover new species and identify and understand species of economic and ecological importance. There was a positive relationship between the availability of species identification guides and knowledge of biodiversity, including the number of species and alien species. Available taxonomic guides and experts correlated negatively with endemic species, suggesting that the more we study the ocean the fewer endemic species are evident. There is a need to accelerate the discovery of marine biodiversity, since much of it may be lost without even being known. We discuss how international collaboration between developed and developing countries is essential for improving productivity in the discovery and management of marine biodiversity, and how various sectors may contribute to this.

Abstract Stochastic models are discussed for the variation of rainfall intensity at a fixed point in space. First, models are analysed in which storm events arise in a Poisson process, each such event being associated with a period of rainfall of random duration and constant but random intensity. Total rainfall intensity is formed by adding the contributions from all storm events. Then similar but more complex models are studied in which storms arise in a Poisson process, each storm giving rise to a cluster of rain cells and each cell being associated with a random period of rain. The main properties of these models are determined analytically. Analysis of some hourly rainfall data from Denver, Colorado shows the clustered models to be much the more satisfactory.

Interfacial tension was measured for hexane + water, heptane + water, octane + water, nonane + water, decane + water, undecane + water, and dodecane + water, using the emergent drop experimental technique with a numerical method based on a fourth degree spline interpolation of the drop profile. The experimental equipment used to generate the drop consists of a cell with a stainless steel body and two Pyrex windows. The inner cell was previously filled with water. A surgical needle (at the bottom of the cell) was used to introduce the organic phase into the cell (forming the emergent drop). Water was used to keep the temperature constant inside the cell (between 10 °C and 60 °C). The cell was illuminated from the back using a fiber optic lamp and a diffuser. A video camera (with a 60 mm microlens and an extension ring) was located at the front window. The emergent drop image was captured and sent to the video recording system. The cell and the optical components were placed on an optical table with vibration isolation legs. A new correlation was found to predict interfacial tension (γ) as a function of temperature (t) and the number of carbon atoms (n) with a deviation of less than 0.05% from experimental values.

The Geant4-DNA project proposes to develop an open-source simulation software based and fully included in the general-purpose Geant4 Monte-Carlo simulation toolkit. The main objective of this software is to simulate biological damages induced by ionizing radiations at the cellular and sub-cellular scale. This project was originally initiated by the European Space Agency for the prediction of the deleterious effects of radiations that may affect astronauts during future long duration space exploration missions. In this paper, the Geant4-DNA collaboration presents an overview of the whole on-going project, including its most recent developments that are available in the Geant4 toolkit since December 2009 (release 9.3), as well as an illustration example simulating the direct irradiation of a biological chromatin fiber. Expected extensions involving several research domains, such as particle physics, chemistry and cellular and molecular biology, within a fully interdisciplinary activity of the Geant4 collaboration are also discussed.

PURPOSE: The GEANT4 general-purpose Monte Carlo simulation toolkit is able to simulate physical interaction processes of electrons, hydrogen and helium atoms with charge states (H0, H+) and (He0, He+, He2+), respectively, in liquid water, the main component of biological systems, down to the electron volt regime and the submicrometer scale, providing GEANT4 users with the so-called "GEANT4-DNA" physics models suitable for microdosimetry simulation applications. The corresponding software has been recently re-engineered in order to provide GEANT4 users with a coherent and unique approach to the simulation of electromagnetic interactions within the GEANT4 toolkit framework (since GEANT4 version 9.3 beta). This work presents a quantitative comparison of these physics models with a collection of experimental data in water collected from the literature. METHODS: An evaluation of the closeness between the total and differential cross section models available in the GEANT4 toolkit for microdosimetry and experimental reference data is performed using a dedicated statistical toolkit that includes the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test. The authors used experimental data acquired in water vapor as direct measurements in the liquid phase are not yet available in the literature. Comparisons with several recommendations are also presented. RESULTS: The authors have assessed the compatibility of experimental data with GEANT4 microdosimetry models by means of quantitative methods. The results show that microdosimetric measurements in liquid water are necessary to assess quantitatively the validity of the software implementation for the liquid water phase. Nevertheless, a comparison with existing experimental data in water vapor provides a qualitative appreciation of the plausibility of the simulation models. The existing reference data themselves should undergo a critical interpretation and selection, as some of the series exhibit significant deviations from each other. CONCLUSIONS: The GEANT4-DNA physics models available in the GEANT4 toolkit have been compared in this article to available experimental data in the water vapor phase as well as to several published recommendations on the mass stopping power. These models represent a first step in the extension of the GEANT4 Monte Carlo toolkit to the simulation of biological effects of ionizing radiation.

Leung and colleagues have revealed a five-dimensional structure of social axioms across individuals from five cultural groups. The present research was designed to reveal the culture level factor structure of social axioms and its correlates across 41 nations. An ecological factor analysis on the 60 items of the Social Axioms Survey extracted two factors: Dynamic Externality correlates with value measures tapping collectivism, hierarchy, and conservatism and with national indices indicative of lower social development. Societal Cynicism is less strongly and broadly correlated with previous values measures or other national indices and seems to define a novel cultural syndrome. Its national correlates suggest that it taps the cognitive component of a cultural constellation labeled maleficence, a cultural syndrome associated with a general mistrust of social systems and other people. Discussion focused on the meaning of these national level factors of beliefs and on their relationships with individual level factors of belief derived from the same data set.

A breakdown of the electrical insulation system causes catastrophic failure of the electrical machine and brings large process downtime losses. To determine the conditions of the stator insulation system of motor drive systems, various testing and monitoring methods have been developed. This paper presents an in-depth literature review of testing and monitoring methods, categorizing them into online and offline methods, each of which is further grouped into specific areas according to their physical nature. The main focus of this paper is on testing and monitoring techniques that diagnose the condition of the turn-to-turn insulation of low-voltage machines, which is a rapidly expanding area for both research and product development efforts. In order to give a compact overview, the results are summarized in two tables. In addition to monitoring methods on turn-to-turn insulation, some of the most common methods to assess the stator's phase-to-ground and phase-to-phase insulation conditions are included in the tables as well.

Spatially varying phenomena are often modeled using Gaussian random fields, specified by their mean function and covariance function. The spatial correlation structure of these models is commonly specified to be of a certain form (e.g., spherical, power exponential, rational quadratic, or Matérn) with a small number of unknown parameters. We consider objective Bayesian analysis of such spatial models, when the mean function of the Gaussian random field is specified as in a linear model. It is thus necessary to determine an objective (or default) prior distribution for the unknown mean and covariance parameters of the random field. We first show that common choices of default prior distributions, such as the constant prior and the independent Jeffreys prior, typically result in improper posterior distributions for this model. Next, the reference prior for the model is developed and is shown to yield a proper posterior distribution. A further attractive property of the reference prior is that it can be used directly for computation of Bayes factors or posterior probabilities of hypotheses to compare different correlation functions, even though the reference prior is improper. An illustration is given using a spatial dataset of topographic elevations.

The fractal dimension of a waveform represents a powerful tool for transient detection. In particular, in analysis of electroencephalograms and electrocardiograms, this feature has been used to identify and distinguish specific states of physiologic function. A variety of algorithms are available for the computation of fractal dimension. In this study, the most common methods of estimating the fractal dimension of biomedical signals directly in the time domain (considering the time series as a geometric object) are analyzed and compared. The analysis is performed over both synthetic data and intracranial electroencephalogram data recorded during presurgical evaluation of individuals with epileptic seizures. The advantages and drawbacks of each technique are highlighted. The effects of window size, number of overlapping points, and signal-to-noise ratio are evaluated for each method. This study demonstrates that a careful selection of fractal dimension algorithm is required for specific applications.

Gamification is the use of game design elements in non-game settings to engage participants and encourage desired behaviors. It has been identified as a promising technique to improve students' engagement which could have a positive impact on learning. This study evaluated the learning effectiveness and engagement appeal of a gamified learning activity targeted at the learning of C-programming language. Furthermore, the study inquired into which gamified learning activities were more appealing to students. The study was conducted using the mixed-method sequential explanatory protocol. The data collected and analysed included logs, questionnaires, and pre- and post-tests. The results of the evaluation show positive effects on the engagement of students toward the gamified learning activities and a moderate improvement in learning outcomes. Students reported different motivations for continuing and stopping activities once they completed the mandatory assignment. The preferences for different gamified activities were also conditioned by academic milestones.

Leaf carbon capture strategies of native and exotic invasive plants were compared by examining leaf traits and their scaling relationships at community and global scales. Community-level leaf trait data were obtained for 55 vascular plant species from nutrient-enriched and undisturbed bushland in Sydney, Australia. Global-scale leaf trait data were compiled from the literature for 75 native and 90 exotic invasive coexisting species. At the community level, specific leaf area (SLA), foliar nitrogen and phosphorus (N(mass) and P(mass)) and N:P ratio were significantly higher for exotics at disturbed sites compared with natives at undisturbed sites, with natives at disturbed sites being intermediate. SLA, N(mass) and P(mass) were positively correlated, with significant shifts in group means along a common standardized major axis (SMA) slope. At the global scale, invasives had significantly higher N(mass), P(mass), assimilation rate (A(mass) and A(area)) and leaf area ratio (LAR) than natives. All traits showed positive correlations, with significant shifts in group means along a common slope. For a given SLA, invasives had higher A(mass) (7.7%) and N(mass) (28%). Thus, exotic invasives do not have fundamentally different carbon capture strategies from natives but are positioned further along the leaf economics spectrum towards faster growth strategies. Species with leaf traits enabling rapid growth will be successful invaders when introduced to novel environments where resources are not limited.

Thirty-six different extracts of six herbs and aromatic plants (fennel, common melilot, milfoil, lavandin cv. Super, spike lavender, and tarragon) were evaluated for their radical scavenging activity by the DPPH*, NBT/hypoxanthine superoxide, and *OH/luminol chemiluminescence methods, and for their antioxidant activity by the beta-carotene blenching test. The total phenolic content was also determined by the Folin-Ciocalteu method. The plant material included cultivated plants and their wastes after being distilled for essential oils. Both remarkably high phenolic content and radical scavenging activities were found for the ethyl acetate and dichloromethane fractions among the different plant extracts. In general, the distilled plant material was found to exhibit a higher phenolic content as well as antioxidant and radical scavenging activities than the nondistilled material. Ethyl acetate and dichloromethane extracts, and even some crude extract, of both distilled and nondistilled plants exhibited activities comparable to those of commercial extracts/compounds, thus making it possible to consider some of them as a potential source of antioxidants of natural origin.

The authors present a new methodology based upon the principles of optimization theory, to treat the problem of optimal coordination of directional overcurrent relays in interconnected power systems. With the application of the proposed technique, this coordination problem is stated as a parameter optimization problem, which in general, is of a large dimension, especially when many different system configurations and perturbations are to be considered. Several optimization procedures, including direct methods and decomposition techniques, for solving this large scale coordination problem are described, and results of optimally coordinating directional overcurrent relays in power systems with up to 30 buses are presented.< <ETX xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">&gt;</ETX>

We show a simple, systematic and direct approach to decoupling gravitational sources in general relativity. As a direct application, a robust and simple way to generate anisotropic solutions for self-gravitating systems from perfect fluid solutions is presented.