Small Arms Survey

On 12 January 2010 an earthquake measuring 7.0 on the Richter Scale struck Haiti, causing unprecedented death, injury and destruction for an event of this magnitude. Our aim was to generate a rapid assessment of the primary consequences for the population of the metropolitan area of Port-au-Prince, the national capital. During the summer of 2009 we conducted a survey of 1,800 households in metropolitan Port-au-Prince. Six weeks after the earthquake, we attempted to trace these households in order to re-interview them. The questionnaire examined mortality and injuries generated by the natural disaster, as well as the character of victimization, food security and living arrangements following the quake. Data analysis incorporated sampling weights and adjusted for clustering within households. The original 2009 survey featured a 90 per cent response rate; in 2010 we re-interviewed 93 per cent of these households. We estimate that 158,679 people in Port-au-Prince (95 per cent CI 136,813-180,545) died during the quake or in the six-week period afterwards owing to injuries or illness. Children were at particular risk for death. In the six weeks after the earthquake, 10,813 people (95 per cent CI 6,726-14,900) were sexually assaulted, the vast majority of whom were female. In the same period 4,645 individuals (95 per cent CI 1,943-7,347) were physically assaulted. Of all households, 18.6 per cent (95 per cent CI 16.6-20.8) were experiencing severe food insecurity six weeks after the earthquake. 24.4 per cent (95 per cent CI 22.1-26.9) of respondents' homes were completely destroyed. Many residents of Port-au-Prince died during or as a result of the earthquake, albeit fewer than were widely reported. More than half of the capital's population experienced moderate to severe food insecurity, though remittances are a major protective factor in promoting food security. Survivors continue to experience high levels of sexual assault and limited access to durable shelter.

Gangs are popularly considered to be the major security threat facing the Central American region. In focusing on the origins and dynamics of gangs in the region, this article seeks to broaden conceptualizations of non-state armed groups by expanding the theoretical optic from a narrow focus on war and post-war contexts to a wider spectrum of settings, actors, and motivations. It highlights a category of actors that does not explicitly seek to overthrow the state, but rather progressively undermines or assumes certain state functions. The article also reveals how efforts to contain and regulate gangs flow from their imputed motives, with interventions influenced by whether they are conceived as a criminal or political threat. At the same time, coercive regulation tend to be favoured even when such repressive interventions exacerbate gang violence, for reasons that reveal the deeper underlying political, social, and economic challenges facing the Central American region.

This paper explores the evolution of international stabilisation agendas and their significance for humanitarian action. Stabilisation includes a combination of military, humanitarian, political and economic activities to control, contain and manage areas affected by armed conflict and complex emergencies. Encompassing narrow security objectives and broader peace-building efforts, stabilisation is both a conservative and potentially transformative, comprehensive and long-term agenda. The open-ended approach allows for widely varying interpretations and applications in different circumstances and by different actors with an assortment of implications for humanitarian action. The relationship between the two is highly uncertain and contentious, due not only to the controversies surrounding stabilisation policies, but also to deep-seated ambiguities at the heart of humanitarianism. While humanitarian actors are preoccupied with the growing involvement of the military in the humanitarian sphere, the paper argues that it is trends in the humanitarian-political interface that represent the more fundamental dilemma.

Haiti is routinely characterised as an archetypical fragile state. In spite of considerable donor investment in security promotion, real and perceived safety have proven frustratingly elusive. In the years before the devastating earthquake of 12 January 2010, the country's capital, Port-au-Prince, was also the site of considerable experimentation to promote security and stability. T his paper reviews the discourse, practice and outcomes associated with three parallel stabilisation initiatives undertaken in Haiti between 2007 and 2009. Although they shared many similar objectives, the paper describes how these separate interventions mobilised very different approaches. The specific focus is on United States, United Nations and combined Brazilian, Canadian and Norwegian stabilisation efforts and their implications for humanitarian actors, including the International Committee of the Red Cross and Médecins Sans Frontières. The paper concludes with some reflections on the implications of stabilisation before and after the country's most recent natural disaster.

Background: Access to healthcare is imperative to health equity and well-being. Geographic access to healthcare can be modeled using spatial datasets on local context, together with the distribution of existing health facilities and populations. Several population datasets are currently available, but their impact on accessibility analyses is unknown. In this study, we model the geographic accessibility of public health facilities at 100-meter resolution in sub-Saharan Africa and evaluate six of the most popular gridded population datasets for their impact on coverage statistics at different administrative levels. Methods: Travel time to nearest health facilities was calculated by overlaying health facility coordinates on top of a friction raster accounting for roads, landcover, and physical barriers. We then intersected six different gridded population datasets with our travel time estimates to determine accessibility coverages within various travel time thresholds (i.e., 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, and 180-min). Results: Here we show that differences in accessibility coverage can exceed 70% at the sub-national level, based on a one-hour travel time threshold. The differences are most notable in large and sparsely populated administrative units and dramatically shape patterns of healthcare accessibility at national and sub-national levels. Conclusions: The results of this study show how valuable and critical a comparative analysis between population datasets is for the derivation of coverage statistics that inform local policies and monitor global targets. Large differences exist between the datasets and the results underscore an essential source of uncertainty in accessibility analyses that should be systematically assessed.

Drawing on a wide range and multidisciplinary literature, this essay provides an overview of post-conflict armed violence. It then introduces a critical review of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration and weapons reduction activities – two comparatively new interventions championed by development donors ostensibly to reduce armed violence and secure the peace.

This essay presents a theory of small arms demand and provides initial evidence from ongoing case studies in the Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, South Africa and Brazil. The theory revolves around the motivations and means to acquire arms, addressing issues such as contrasting acquirers and possessors and differentiating between acquirers and non-acquirers, consumers and producers, and final and intermediate demand. The essay also studies characteristics of small arms that make them so desirable as compared to other means of conducting violent conflict. The overall goal is to provide a theoretical framework and language that is common to a variety of social science approaches to the study of small arms use, misuse and abuse.

Firearms have played a significant role in exacerbating invidious forms of violence in Papua New Guinea. Victimisation rates in the National Capital District (NCD) are amongst the highest in the world. Port Moresby, the country's largest and fastest growing urban centre, accounts for some 34 per cent of all nationally reported crimes, despite accounting for only 5 per cent of the country's population. The Southern Highlands Province (SHP) is also rife with violent armed conflict. This feature reports on the findings from an armed violence assessment administered in NCD and SHP by the Small Arms Survey with support from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). This assessment yields a number of critical and counter-intuitive findings that take issue with the conventional wisdom concerning armed violence in Papua New Guinea and should influence prospective interventions to mitigate insecurity and reduce arms availability and demand.

3D-printed firearms, an emerging category of privately made firearms (PMF) produced beyond government control, have become increasingly prevalent due to technological advancements. They are now emerging as a cost-effective and reliable alternative to conventional firearms. Raised to public awareness following the 2013 release of the 3D-printed Liberator, these firearms are now more commonly encountered by police forces. This article analyses various reports involving 3D-printed firearms, reflecting the increasing encounters by law enforcement agencies. It examines 186 cases involving 3D-printed firearms, primarily from North America, Europe, and Oceania, highlighting a significant rise in incidents since 2021. These incidents include seizures, illicit uses, and online sales, with the firearms typically being hybrid models, Parts Kit Completions/Conversions (PKC), or firearm components such as auto sears. The study underscores the use of affordable equipment and materials for production, emphasizing the accessibility and potential risks of these firearms.

Using a crime script analysis, this research aims to document how smugglers operate when they traffic arms from the US to foreign countries. Our study is based on an analysis of 66 cases that have been judged by US courts (2008–2017). The criminal activities involved are detailed in a series of distinct scenes, according to Cornish’s theory. Five scripts have been developed, based on the means of transport used by the traffickers: road transport, commercial airlines, postal services, freight transport and crossing the border on foot. Results suggest that most criminals prefer to operate according to an established modus operandi. This commonality suggests that the potential exists for the professionalisation of this criminal activity. Indeed, offenders are likely to maintain it to reduce effort and risk. Complementary sources of information would help to enrich the approach proposed in this study and to address the challenges posed by complex cases.

The rise of China has been fuelled by a massive military modernisation programme relying, in large part, on the acquisition of foreign military equipment. The question of how the world’s major powers define their arms transfer policies towards China is therefore crucially important. This article makes two original contributions. First, drawing on neoclassical realism, it proposes an explanatory framework integrating international and domestic factors to explain variations in major powers’ arms transfers. Second, based on a large body of elite interviews and diplomatic cables, it offers the first comprehensive comparison of American, British, French and Russian arms transfer policies towards China since the end of the Cold War.

agenda of the United States (US) in the past, but that is changing. A transformation in America’s strategic concerns is the principal reason for this development. A desire to wean itself from relying too heavily on Middle Eastern oil suppliers and to exploit Africa’s growing petroleum reserves is a major factor. So is the growing recognition that failed and failing states provide safe havens and possible recruiting grounds for international terrorists. US policy toward Africa had begun to shift before the November 2000 US presidential elections, but the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 quickened the pace and deepened the commitment. As a result, the US has supported United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations in Africa with renewed vigour, and has expanded its assistance to augment the ability of African militaries to undertake peace operations. After an unprecedented growth in the number of UN peacekeeping operations in the wake of the Cold War, the US commitment to UN missions waned. It increasingly supported those interventions undertaken by regional organizations and coalitions of the willing. This had a profound effect in Africa. Whereas there were more than 30,000 UN Blue Helmets serving in Africa for much of 1993 and 1994, the numbers had dwindled to fewer than 2,000 at one point in 1999. During this time operations headed by Africans were deployed in no fewer than eight conflict zones throughout the continent. Before 1996, US assistance to African-led peace operations had been largely ad hoc and short-lived. Washington provided financial and material support to Zairian troops participating in the OAU Neutral Force in Chad for six months in 1981–82. Similarly, it assisted Senegalese troops in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Cease-fire Monitoring Group in Liberia in 1991–92, and later aided Tanzanian and Ugandan contingents in the same mission during 1993–94. Despite Washington’s professed “partnership” with Africa, the initial US capacitybuilding programme to develop African peacekeeping capabilities was essentially a product of its policy of disengagement, and fairly limited. The African Crisis Response Initiative (ACRI) began as the African Crisis Response Force (ACRF), and was rolled out rather clumsily during a dramatic rise in interethnic tensions in Burundi in 1996. The then US president, Bill Clinton, wanted an option that did not include the deployment of US troops should the escalating political conflict in Burundi result in a bloodbath. The coup d’etat in Bujumbura brought the crisis to an end, and ACRF transformed into ACRI. The RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN US PEACEKEEPING POLICY AND ASSISTANCE TO AFRICA

Armed violence is a significant public health problem. It results in fatal and non-fatal injuries and disrupts social and economic processes that are essential to the health of individuals and communities. We argue that an agent-vector-host-environment model can be helpful in understanding and describing the availability and misuse of small arms and light weapons. Moreover, such a model can assist in identifying potential control points and in developing mitigation strategies. These concepts have been developed from analogous vector control programs and are applied to controlling arms to reduce their misuse. So-called 'denormalization' and 'de-legitimization' campaigns that focus on the vector - including the industry producing these commodities - can be based on the experience of public health in controlling tobacco use and exposure. This model can assist health professionals, civil society and governments in developing comprehensive strategies to limit the production, distribution and misuse of small arms and light weapons.

This article reviews research undertaken over the past two decades to support international policy on small arms and light weapons (SALW) – which include firearms – and discusses its relevance to academic debates and policy on gun violence. It examines whether SALW research generated a greater understanding of the most problematic uses and users of firearms, and of the role of different weapons as instruments of violence. SALW research helped shift international policy from armed conflicts to gun violence occurring in a range of developing and post-conflict settings, and in Europe following the 2015–16 terror attacks. This work underscored the proximate weapons sources that armed groups often utilise, and the importance of flows of certain weapons – such as converted firearms – and ammunition in fuelling violence. Undertaking impact evaluations of novel interventions, monitoring the impact of new technologies, and investigating the relationship between ammunition supply and violence are suggested ways forward.

The public health and development sectors are increasingly motivated to tackle the issue of armed violence. Violence, armed or otherwise, is present in all societies, regardless of whether they are...

Over the past decade small arms and light weapons availability has been singled out as one of sub-Saharan Africa's highest profile challenges. Yet the construction of the threat of arms availability as one of authorised trade and illicit trafficking across international borders has resulted in a narrow focus on regulating lawful exports and imports and brokers. While these are real and legitimate concerns, the authors contend that small arms and light weapons availability should be re-evaluated as a complex social phenomenon involving dynamic supply and demand dimensions. A limited emphasis on controlling authorised transfers to war zones glosses over the challenges of illegal markets, the gradual emergence of national arms production capacities across Africa and the systematic diversion of weapons and ammunition surplus from the domestic stocks of security services into civilian hands. It also obscures a more dynamic landscape of armed violence across the continent which extends beyond war zones. Whilst the conventional interpretation of arms availability is favoured by African diplomats and international arms control experts, such a reading potentially obscures the weaknesses of security governance and the myriad motivations and means shaping small arms and light weapons acquisition and misuse amongst armed groups and civilians.

Homicide data is collected to gather evidence about the specific means by which people die due to unnatural causes. This study focuses on homicide, related to crime, violence, armed conflict, with an emphasis on gender related homicide. The study is a first attempt to systematically analyze the National Crime Records (NCRB) homicide dataset, which records 13 categories of “murder by motive”. The analysis is done from the period of 2000-2010 to assess victimization patterns in India. The assessment addresses questions of data accuracy and comprehensives, and these are necessary to examine given that NCRB is India’s principal crime data set which is referenced for both domestic and international evaluations. The study’s analysis is supplemented by drawing from UN reports, independent surveys and media articles. Of the 13 motive categories, love affairs, dowry, lunacy and witchcraft indicate specific forms of violence targeting women due to their gender. The analysis is also disaggregated by age, to better understand the proportion of females most at risk. When assessing homicide trends, it is relevant to consider the instruments of murder, and the study examines gun related homicide. NCRB data shows a marked decline in the total number of homicides during 2001-2010, the same sources show an even sharper drop in use of guns for killing. Reasons perpetuating this decline are worth examining given the protracted armed conflict situations and the problem of illegal firearms proliferation in India. A unifying theme in the study is the lack of accurate crime reporting practices. As a result, accomplishments like the declining violent crime and murder, as indicated in official NCRB data should be regarded with caution. In lieu of fully reliable data, the study provides recommendations aimed at institutional reforms to improve data recording practices to better the understanding of violence in India.

Cambodia is a typical example of a post-conflict country where the lack of easily available data to guide policy design is one of the fundamental challenges to be addressed. While Cambodia has benefited from sustained Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) collection and destruction programmes since 1998, these have not been accompanied by any data analysis on the impact of gun proliferation and use or on these destruction programmes. In 2005, the Small Arms Survey (SAS) collected data on firearm morbidity and mortality spanning the last ten years. The objective was to develop methods that can be used for data generation in countries without systematic data collection. Using hospital admissions records and a review of the main English newspaper, the data shows that collection and destruction programmes have made a significant difference to human security in Cambodia. The study also reveals that even where no official data is available in a country, researchers can often derive useful indicators.

This paper focuses on the long-term objective of the Firearms Protocol supplementing the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime to reduce certain kinds of armed violence associated with the misuse of firearms. More than 15 years after the Protocol has come into force, the authors ask how its possible impacts on armed violence might be assessed; indicate key challenges for such an enterprise, and suggest directions for future work in this area, towards the establishment of a measurement tool which could help inform the recently established Review Mechanism of the Protocol.

Few countries systematically record and publish detailed information on the types, caliber, and makes of ammunition recovered by law enforcement. This results in a lack of knowledge of the ammunition used in crime, including in the European context. This pilot study examines the utility of ballistic datasets for monitoring illicit ammunition. The ballistic laboratories of four European countries-Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland-provided access to non-confidential subsets of their national databases, including the caliber of recovered cartridge cases as well as the year and type of incident in which they were used. The laboratories also shared images of the ammunition headstamp markings, which helped determine each cartridge case's manufacturer and-when known-year of production. The resulting dataset covers 3130 cartridge cases documented by the participating laboratories between 2015 and the first quarter of 2020. Although limited in scope-the research team did not have access to geocoded data so spatial comparisons were limited to the country level-the dataset helps generate a baseline of the main varieties of ammunition used in crime, by country and crime category, and over time. Most of the ammunition (61 per cent) was recovered in the context of violent types of crime-homicides and assaults-for which pistol ammunition calibers were the most prominent. 610 unique headstamps were recorded, but only a small proportion of these varieties of ammunition accounted for most of the cases. All four country datasets included both foreign-made ammunition as well as cartridges produced domestically. The year of manufacture could be identified for 28 per cent of the cartridges, and at least 27 pieces of ammunition were produced in the same year that the criminal incident took place, which suggests recent diversion from licit holdings. The dataset revealed additional trends such as the criminal use of blank ammunition in all four case studies, as well as the relatively new prevalence of the 7,62 × 39 caliber-which is typically used with AK-pattern rifles-in one country. In addition to shedding new light on the types of ammunition used in crime in the European context, monitoring illicit ammunition across space and over time has the potential to support police investigations with intelligence on criminals' sources of supply.