South China Sea Institute Of Oceanology

Abstract Significant climate anomalies persist through the summer (June–August) after El Niño dissipates in spring over the equatorial Pacific. They include the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming, increased tropical tropospheric temperature, an anomalous anticyclone over the subtropical northwest Pacific, and increased mei-yu–baiu rainfall over East Asia. The cause of these lingering El Niño effects during summer is investigated using observations and an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The results herein indicate that the TIO warming acts like a capacitor anchoring atmospheric anomalies over the Indo–western Pacific Oceans. It causes tropospheric temperature to increase by a moist-adiabatic adjustment in deep convection, emanating a baroclinic Kelvin wave into the Pacific. In the northwest Pacific, this equatorial Kelvin wave induces northeasterly surface wind anomalies, and the resultant divergence in the subtropics triggers suppressed convection and the anomalous anticyclone. The GCM results support this Kelvin wave–induced Ekman divergence mechanism. In response to a prescribed SST increase over the TIO, the model simulates the Kelvin wave with low pressure on the equator as well as suppressed convection and the anomalous anticyclone over the subtropical northwest Pacific. An additional experiment further indicates that the north Indian Ocean warming is most important for the Kelvin wave and northwest Pacific anticyclone, a result corroborated by observations. These results have important implications for the predictability of Indo–western Pacific summer climate: the spatial distribution and magnitude of the TIO warming, rather than simply whether there is an El Niño in the preceding winter, affect summer climate anomalies over the Indo–western Pacific and East Asia.

The oxidative stress imposed by reactive oxygen species (ROS) plays an important role in many chronic and degenerative diseases. As an important category of phytochemicals, phenolic compounds universally exist in plants, and have been considered to have high antioxidant ability and free radical scavenging capacity, with the mechanism of inhibiting the enzymes responsible for ROS production and reducing highly oxidized ROS. Therefore, phenolic compounds have attracted increasing attention as potential agents for preventing and treating many oxidative stress-related diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases, cancer, ageing, diabetes mellitus and neurodegenerative diseases. This review summarizes current knowledge of natural polyphenols, including resource, bioactivities, bioavailability and potential toxicity.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which originates in the Pacific, is the strongest and most well-known mode of tropical climate variability. Its reach is global, and it can force climate variations of the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans by perturbing the global atmospheric circulation. Less appreciated is how the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans affect the Pacific. Especially noteworthy is the multidecadal Atlantic warming that began in the late 1990s, because recent research suggests that it has influenced Indo-Pacific climate, the character of the ENSO cycle, and the hiatus in global surface warming. Discovery of these pantropical interactions provides a pathway forward for improving predictions of climate variability in the current climate and for refining projections of future climate under different anthropogenic forcing scenarios.

Abstract ENSO induces coherent climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific, but these anomalies outlast SST anomalies of the equatorial Pacific by a season, with major effects on the Asian summer monsoon. This review provides historical accounts of major milestones and synthesizes recent advances in the endeavor to understand summer variability over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region. Specifically, a large-scale anomalous anticyclone (AAC) is a recurrent pattern in post-El Ni˜no summers, spanning the tropical Northwest Pacific and North Indian oceans. Regarding the ocean memory that anchors the summer AAC, competing hypotheses emphasize either SST cooling in the easterly trade wind regime of the Northwest Pacific or SST warming in the westerly monsoon regime of the North Indian Ocean. Our synthesis reveals a coupled ocean–atmosphere mode that builds on both mechanisms in a two-stage evolution. In spring, when the northeast trades prevail, the AAC and Northwest Pacific cooling are coupled via wind–evaporation–SST feedback. The Northwest Pacific cooling persists to trigger a summer feedback that arises from the interaction of the AAC and North Indian Ocean warming, enabled by the westerly monsoon wind regime. This Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect explains why El Ni˜no stages its last act over the monsoonal Indo-Northwest Pacific and casts the Indian Ocean warming and AAC in leading roles. The IPOC displays interdecadal modulations by the ENSO variance cycle, significantly correlated with ENSO at the turn of the 20th century and after the 1970s, but not in between. Outstanding issues, including future climate projections, are also discussed.

The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus continually lead to worldwide human infections and deaths. Currently, there is no specific viral protein-targeted therapeutics. Viral nucleocapsid protein is a potential antiviral drug target, serving multiple critical functions during the viral life cycle. However, the structural information of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein remains unclear. Herein, we have determined the 2.7 Å crystal structure of the N-terminal RNA binding domain of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein. Although the overall structure is similar as other reported coronavirus nucleocapsid protein N-terminal domain, the surface electrostatic potential characteristics between them are distinct. Further comparison with mild virus type HCoV-OC43 equivalent domain demonstrates a unique potential RNA binding pocket alongside the β-sheet core. Complemented by in vitro binding studies, our data provide several atomic resolution features of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein N-terminal domain, guiding the design of novel antiviral agents specific targeting to SARS-CoV-2.

Abstract Combined analyses of deep tow magnetic anomalies and International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 349 cores show that initial seafloor spreading started around 33 Ma in the northeastern South China Sea (SCS), but varied slightly by 1–2 Myr along the northern continent‐ocean boundary (COB). A southward ridge jump of ∼20 km occurred around 23.6 Ma in the East Subbasin; this timing also slightly varied along the ridge and was coeval to the onset of seafloor spreading in the Southwest Subbasin, which propagated for about 400 km southwestward from ∼23.6 to ∼21.5 Ma. The terminal age of seafloor spreading is ∼15 Ma in the East Subbasin and ∼16 Ma in the Southwest Subbasin. The full spreading rate in the East Subbasin varied largely from ∼20 to ∼80 km/Myr, but mostly decreased with time except for the period between ∼26.0 Ma and the ridge jump (∼23.6 Ma), within which the rate was the fastest at ∼70 km/Myr on average. The spreading rates are not correlated, in most cases, to magnetic anomaly amplitudes that reflect basement magnetization contrasts. Shipboard magnetic measurements reveal at least one magnetic reversal in the top 100 m of basaltic layers, in addition to large vertical intensity variations. These complexities are caused by late‐stage lava flows that are magnetized in a different polarity from the primary basaltic layer emplaced during the main phase of crustal accretion. Deep tow magnetic modeling also reveals this smearing in basement magnetizations by incorporating a contamination coefficient of 0.5, which partly alleviates the problem of assuming a magnetic blocking model of constant thickness and uniform magnetization. The primary contribution to magnetic anomalies of the SCS is not in the top 100 m of the igneous basement.

Seasonal and interannual variations of summer upwelling off the South Vietnam coast and the offshore spread of cold water are investigated using a suite of new satellite measurements. In summer, as the southwesterly winds impinge on Annam Cordillera (a north‐south running mountain range on the east coast of Indochina) a strong wind jet occurs at its southern tip offshore east of Saigon, resulting in strong wind curls that are important for ocean upwelling off the coast. In July and August an anticyclonic ocean eddy develops to the southeast, advecting the cold coastal water offshore into the open South China Sea (SCS). The center of this cold filament is located consistently north of the wind speed maximum, indicating that open‐ocean upwelling helps to cool the ocean surface. Corroborating evidence for the cold filament is found in ocean color observations that reveal a collocated tongue of high chlorophyll concentration. The development of this cold filament disrupts the summer warming of the SCS and causes a pronounced semi‐annual cycle in SST. Moreover, the cold filament is an important player in interannual variability in the summer SCS. In 1998, the cold filament and mid‐summer cooling never took place, giving rise to a strong basin‐wide surface warming. Interannual SST variance has a local maximum over the climatological cold filament, and is much greater than the variance over the adjacent Indian and western Pacific Oceans. A cold filament index is constructed, which displays significant lagged correlation with SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans, indicative of a teleconnection from El Nino.

Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2-5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine-coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.

Abstract Errors of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) limit their utility for climate prediction and projection. Origins of and feedback for tropical biases are investigated in the historical climate simulations of 18 CGCMs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), together with the available Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Based on an intermodel empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of tropical Pacific precipitation, the excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue and double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) stand out as the most prominent errors of the current generation of CGCMs. The comparison of CMIP–AMIP pairs enables us to identify whether a given type of errors originates from atmospheric models. The equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias is associated with deficient precipitation and surface easterly wind biases in the western half of the basin in CGCMs, but these errors are absent in atmosphere-only models, indicating that the errors arise from the interaction with the ocean via Bjerknes feedback. For the double ITCZ problem, excessive precipitation south of the equator correlates well with excessive downward solar radiation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitudes, an error traced back to atmospheric model simulations of cloud during austral spring and summer. This extratropical forcing of the ITCZ displacements is mediated by tropical ocean–atmosphere interaction and is consistent with recent studies of ocean–atmospheric energy transport balance.

Abstract El Niño induces a basin-wide increase in tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) with a lag of one season. The north IO (NIO), in particular, displays a peculiar double-peak warming with the second peak larger in magnitude and persisting well through the summer. Motivated by recent studies suggesting the importance of the TIO warming for the Northwest Pacific and East Asian summer monsoons, the present study investigates the mechanisms for the second peak of the NIO warming using observations and general circulation models. This analysis reveals that internal air–sea interaction within the TIO is key to sustaining the TIO warming through summer. During El Niño, anticyclonic wind curl anomalies force a downwelling Rossby wave in the south TIO through Walker circulation adjustments, causing a sustained SST warming in the tropical southwest IO (SWIO) where the mean thermocline is shallow. During the spring and early summer following El Niño, this SWIO warming sustains an antisymmetric pattern of atmospheric anomalies with northeasterly (northwesterly) wind anomalies north (south) of the equator. Over the NIO as the mean winds turn into southwesterly in May, the northeasterly anomalies force the second SST peak that persists through summer by reducing the wind speed and surface evaporation. Atmospheric general circulation model experiments show that the antisymmetric atmospheric pattern is a response to the TIO warming, suggestive of their mutual interaction. Thus, ocean dynamics and Rossby waves in particular are important for the warming not only locally in SWIO but also on the basin-scale north of the equator, a result with important implications for climate predictability and prediction.

Interactions among the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans through ocean–atmosphere coupling can initiate and/or modulate climate variability. The Pacific Ocean is home to ENSO which affects other oceans through atmospheric bridges and the oceanic Indonesian throughflow (ITF). A warm Indian Ocean can produce atmospheric Kelvin waves that propagate eastward and increase equatorial easterly wind anomalies in the western Pacific and thus cool eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). A positive Indian Ocean dipole establishes a southwestward pressure gradient force in the ITF region which increases the ITF transport and decreases ocean heat content in the western Pacific and may cool eastern Pacific SST. The Indian Ocean can also influence the Atlantic by atmospheric bridge and the oceanic Agulhas leakage south of Africa. Midlatitude North Atlantic SSTs may affect Pacific climate variability: (1) The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) influences North Pacific variability; (2) The warm AMO phase increases the occurrence of central Pacific (CP)-type El Niño; (3) The warm AMO phase helps induce anomalous cyclonic circulation in the tropical western North Pacific; and (4) A cold midlatitude North Atlantic Ocean in the summer may initiate an El Niño in subsequent year via the East Atlantic/West Russia teleconnection. A warm tropical North Atlantic in the spring can induce a CP-type La Niña in the subsequent winter, via two pathways of the tropical eastern North and South Pacific. Finally, the Atlantic Niño (Niña) in the summer, through the Walker circulation and ocean dynamics, helps induce an eastern Pacific-type La Niña (El Niño) in the subsequent winter. The Atlantic Niño can also warm the tropical western Indian Ocean and weaken Indian monsoon rainfall.

In many genomes, toxin-antitoxin (TA) systems have been identified; however, their role in cell physiology has been unclear. Here we examine the evidence that TA systems are involved in biofilm formation and persister cell formation and that these systems may be important regulators of the switch from the planktonic to the biofilm lifestyle as a stress response by their control of secondary messenger 3',5'-cyclic diguanylic acid. Specifically, upon stress, the sequence-specific mRNA interferases MqsR and MazF mediate cell survival. In addition, we propose that TA systems are not redundant, as they may have developed to respond to specific stresses.

Knowledge of the origins and dissemination of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) is essential for understanding modern resistomes in the environment. The mechanisms of the dissemination of ARGs can be revealed through comparative studies on the metagenomic profiling of ARGs between relatively pristine and human-impacted environments. The deep ocean bed of the South China Sea (SCS) is considered to be largely devoid of anthropogenic impacts, while the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) in south China has been highly impacted by intensive human activities. Commonly used antibiotics (sulfamethazine, norfloxacin, ofloxacin, tetracycline, and erythromycin) have been detected through chemical analysis in the PRE sediments, but not in the SCS sediments. In the relatively pristine SCS sediments, the most prevalent and abundant ARGs are those related to resistance to macrolides and polypeptides, with efflux pumps as the predominant mechanism. In the contaminated PRE sediments, the typical ARG profiles suggest a prevailing resistance to antibiotics commonly used in human health and animal farming (including sulfonamides, fluoroquinolones, and aminoglycosides), and higher diversity in both genotype and resistance mechanism than those in the SCS. In particular, antibiotic inactivation significantly contributed to the resistance to aminoglycosides, β-lactams, and macrolides observed in the PRE sediments. There was a significant correlation in the levels of abundance of ARGs and those of mobile genetic elements (including integrons and plasmids), which serve as carriers in the dissemination of ARGs in the aquatic environment. The metagenomic results from the current study support the view that ARGs naturally originate in pristine environments, while human activities accelerate the dissemination of ARGs so that microbes would be able to tolerate selective environmental stress in response to anthropogenic impacts.

The Kuroshio carrying the northwestern Pacific water intrudes into the South China Sea (SCS) through the Luzon Strait, significantly affecting the temperature, salinity, circulation, and eddy generation in the SCS. Thus, the Kuroshio intrusion makes important contributions to the momentum, heat and salt budgets in the SCS. In the past decades, much work has been done on the Kuroshio intrusion. This paper reviews past efforts and summarizes our current understanding of the Kuroshio intruding processes from observational evidence, laboratory results, theoretical analyses, and a range of numerical model simulations. In addition, discrepancies between results simulated by models, as well as those between simulations and observations, are presented. Specifically, this paper addresses the following topics: (1) different types of the Kuroshio intrusion into the SCS and their identification, (2) vertical structure of the Kuroshio in the Luzon Strait, (3) an overview of the Luzon Strait transport resulting from observations and numerical model simulations, (4) seasonal and interannual variations of the Kuroshio intrusion, as well as eddy generation due to the Kuroshio path variation, and (5) dynamical mechanisms (e.g., wind forcing, interbasin pressure gradient, β effect and hysteresis, potential vorticity, eddy activity) controlling the Kuroshio intrusion into the SCS. Finally, several future research topics for gaining a better understanding of the Kuroshio intruding processes are suggested.

We investigated mean properties and the spatiotemporal variability of eddies in the South China Sea (SCS) by analyzing more than 7000 eddies corresponding to 827 eddy tracks, identified using the winding angle method and 17 years of satellite altimetry data. Eddies are mainly generated in a northeast-southwest direction and southwest of Luzon Strait. There is no significant difference between the numbers of two types of eddies (anticyclonic and cyclonic) in most regions. The mean radius and lifetime of eddies are 132 km and 8.8 weeks, respectively, both depending on where the eddies are formed. Anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies tend to deform during their lifetimes in different ways. Furthermore, eddy propagation and evolution characteristics are examined. In the northern SCS, eddies mainly propagate southwestward along the continental slope with velocities of 5.0-9.0 cm s(-1), while in the central SCS, eddies tend to move with slight divergence but still in a quasi-westward direction with velocities of 2.0-6.4 cm s(-1). Eddy propagation in the western basin to the east of Vietnam is quite random, with no uniform propagate direction. Investigation of 38 long-lived eddies shows that eddies have a swift growing phase during the first 12 weeks and then a slow decaying phase that affects the eddy radii and eddy energy densities. Nevertheless, vorticity has less variability. In addition, the effect of eddies on the thermocline and halocline is analyzed using 763 Argo temperature profile data. Cyclonic eddies drive the thermocline shallower and thinner and significantly strengthen the thermocline intensity, whereas anticyclonic eddies cause the thermocline to deepen and thicken and weaken the thermocline intensity to a certain degree. The halocline impacted by cyclonic eddies is also shallower and thinner than that impacted by anticyclonic eddies. Finally, eddy temporal variations are examined at seasonal and interannual scales. Eddy activity is sensitive to the wind stress curl and in the northern SCS it is also related with the strength of the background flows.

Hydrothermal vents and methane seeps are extreme deep-sea ecosystems that support dense populations of specialized macro-benthos such as mussels. But the lack of genome information hinders the understanding of the adaptation of these animals to such inhospitable environments. Here we report the genomes of a deep-sea vent/seep mussel (Bathymodiolus platifrons) and a shallow-water mussel (Modiolus philippinarum). Phylogenetic analysis shows that these mussel species diverged approximately 110.4 million years ago. Many gene families, especially those for stabilizing protein structures and removing toxic substances from cells, are highly expanded in B. platifrons, indicating adaptation to extreme environmental conditions. The innate immune system of B. platifrons is considerably more complex than that of other lophotrochozoan species, including M. philippinarum, with substantial expansion and high expression levels of gene families that are related to immune recognition, endocytosis and caspase-mediated apoptosis in the gill, revealing presumed genetic adaptation of the deep-sea mussel to the presence of its chemoautotrophic endosymbionts. A follow-up metaproteomic analysis of the gill of B. platifrons shows methanotrophy, assimilatory sulfate reduction and ammonia metabolic pathways in the symbionts, providing energy and nutrients, which allow the host to thrive. Our study of the genomic composition allowing symbiosis in extremophile molluscs gives wider insights into the mechanisms of symbiosis in other organisms such as deep-sea tubeworms and giant clams.

Results of clay mineralogy, major element geochemistry, and Sr and Nd isotopes in 93 argillaceous samples collected from drainage basins of the Pearl, Red, and Mekong rivers reveal different degrees of chemical weathering in Southeast Asia despite similar climate conditions across these regions. The kaolinite/illite ratio, illite chemistry index, and illite crystallinity can be used as indicators of chemical weathering intensity. These mineralogical proxies combined with the K 2 O/(Na 2 O + CaO) molar ratio, chemical index of alteration (CIA), and weathering trends observed from major element results indicate intensive silicate weathering in the Pearl River basin, moderate to intensive in the Mekong River basin, and moderate in the Red River basin. Although a significant modification of ɛNd(0) values in our riverine sediments during chemical weathering and transport is unlikely, 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios are controlled by various states of chemical weathering of high‐Sr minerals such as plagioclase (rich in Na and Ca) with a linear decrease trend from the Pearl, Mekong, to Red river basins. Our results suggest that it is not the warm climate with heavy monsoon precipitation but tectonics playing the most significant role in controlling weathering and erosion processes in south China and Indochina Peninsula. Strong physical erosion caused by tectonic activities and river incision along the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and along the Red River fault system is responsible for high contents of primary minerals in the lowlands of Red and Mekong river basins.

Using R/V Shiyan 3 as a sampling platform, measurements of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), surface seawater total mercury (THg), methyl mercury (MeHg), and dissolved gaseous mercury (DGM) were carried out above and in the South China Sea (SCS). Measurements were collected for 2 weeks (10 to 28 August 2007) during an oceanographic expedition, which circumnavigated the northern SCS from Guangzhou (Canton), Hainan Inland, the Philippines, and back to Guangzhou. GEM concentrations over the northern SCS ranged from 1.04 to 6.75 ng m −3 (mean: 2.62 ng m −3 , median: 2.24 ng m −3 ). The spatial distribution of GEM was characterized by elevated concentrations near the coastal sites adjacent to mainland China and lower concentrations at stations in the open sea. Trajectory analysis revealed that high concentrations of GEM were generally related to air masses from south China and the Indochina peninsula, while lower concentrations of GEM were related to air masses from the open sea area, reflecting great Hg emissions from south China and Indochina peninsula. The mean concentrations of THg, MeHg, and DGM in surface seawater were 1.2 ± 0.3 ng L −1 , 0.12 ± 0.05 ng L −1 , and 36.5 ± 14.9 pg L −1 , respectively. In general, THg and MeHg levels in the northern SCS were higher compared to results reported from most other oceans/seas. Elevated THg levels in the study area were likely attributed to significant Hg delivery from surrounding areas of the SCS primarily via atmospheric deposition and riverine input, whereas other sources like in situ production by various biotic and abiotic processes may be important for MeHg. Average sea/air flux of Hg in the study area was estimated using a gas exchange method (4.5 ± 3.4 ng m −2 h −1 ). This value was comparable to those from other coastal areas and generally higher than those from open sea environments, which may be attributed to the reemission of Hg previously transported to this area.

The Yinggehai–Song Hong basin is one of the world's largest pull‐apart basins, lying along the trace of the Red River fault zone in the South China Sea. South of Hainan Island this basin crosscuts the rifted margin of the northern South China Sea. In this paper we present for the first time a regional compilation of multichannel seismic reflection data from both the strike slip and rifted margins. The basins started to open after ∼45 Ma, especially after ∼34 Ma. The Yinggehai basin was folded and inverted in the middle Miocene, after 21 Ma in the north and 14 Ma in the south, before rapidly subsiding again after ∼5 Ma because of continued tectonism. This subsidence has caused shale diapirism, especially driven by associated sedimentation in the late Pliocene (2.6–2.0 Ma). Extension along the adjacent south Hainan margin shows preferential lower crustal extension, suggestive of lower crustal flow increasing toward the continent‐ocean transition during breakup. Sediment supply is reconstructed to peak in the middle Miocene, then falls between 14 and 10.3 Ma to reach a low in the late Miocene. However, rates rose again in the Pliocene‐Pleistocene. The Red River sediment budget is incompatible with climate models that propose stronger monsoon rains starting at 8 Ma or with large‐scale river capture away from the Red River after ∼10 Ma. Both lines of evidence point to major uplift in the Red River drainage being middle Miocene or older. The recent, preindustrial Red River carried much more sediment than the average Pleistocene accumulation rate, indicating modest sediment buffering onshore, at least in recent geologic time.

Abstract In the summer following a strong El Niño, tropical cyclone (TC) number decreases over the Northwest (NW) Pacific despite little change in local sea surface temperature. The authors’ analysis suggests El Niño–induced tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming as the cause. The TIO warming forces a warm tropospheric Kelvin wave that propagates into the western Pacific. Inducing surface divergence off the equator, the tropospheric Kelvin wave suppresses convection and induces an anomalous anticyclone over the NW Pacific, both anomalies unfavorable for TCs. The westerly vertical shear associated with the warm Kelvin wave reduces the magnitude of vertical shear in the South China Sea and strengthens it in the NW Pacific, an east–west variation that causes TC activity to increase and decrease in respective regions. These results help improve seasonal TC prediction.