St. Mary's Hospital

This is a retrospective study of patients whose tracheas were impossible to intubate on a previous occasion. There is a correlation between the degree of difficulty and the anatomy of the oropharynx in the same patient. The study was initially on obstetric patients but was extended to nonobstetric surgical patients in order to increase the number of cases investigated. The incidence of failed intubations in the obstetric group over a 3-year period was seven out of 1980 cases, whereas in the surgical group the results were six out of 13,380 patients. Any screening test which adds to our ability to predict difficulty in intubation must be welcomed, as failure to intubate can potentially lead to fatality.

BACKGROUND: The effect of decompressive craniectomy on clinical outcomes in patients with refractory traumatic intracranial hypertension remains unclear. METHODS: From 2004 through 2014, we randomly assigned 408 patients, 10 to 65 years of age, with traumatic brain injury and refractory elevated intracranial pressure (>25 mm Hg) to undergo decompressive craniectomy or receive ongoing medical care. The primary outcome was the rating on the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS-E) (an 8-point scale, ranging from death to "upper good recovery" [no injury-related problems]) at 6 months. The primary-outcome measure was analyzed with an ordinal method based on the proportional-odds model. If the model was rejected, that would indicate a significant difference in the GOS-E distribution, and results would be reported descriptively. RESULTS: The GOS-E distribution differed between the two groups (P<0.001). The proportional-odds assumption was rejected, and therefore results are reported descriptively. At 6 months, the GOS-E distributions were as follows: death, 26.9% among 201 patients in the surgical group versus 48.9% among 188 patients in the medical group; vegetative state, 8.5% versus 2.1%; lower severe disability (dependent on others for care), 21.9% versus 14.4%; upper severe disability (independent at home), 15.4% versus 8.0%; moderate disability, 23.4% versus 19.7%; and good recovery, 4.0% versus 6.9%. At 12 months, the GOS-E distributions were as follows: death, 30.4% among 194 surgical patients versus 52.0% among 179 medical patients; vegetative state, 6.2% versus 1.7%; lower severe disability, 18.0% versus 14.0%; upper severe disability, 13.4% versus 3.9%; moderate disability, 22.2% versus 20.1%; and good recovery, 9.8% versus 8.4%. Surgical patients had fewer hours than medical patients with intracranial pressure above 25 mm Hg after randomization (median, 5.0 vs. 17.0 hours; P<0.001) but had a higher rate of adverse events (16.3% vs. 9.2%, P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: At 6 months, decompressive craniectomy in patients with traumatic brain injury and refractory intracranial hypertension resulted in lower mortality and higher rates of vegetative state, lower severe disability, and upper severe disability than medical care. The rates of moderate disability and good recovery were similar in the two groups. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and others; RESCUEicp Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN66202560 .).

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer has a high case-fatality ratio, with most women not diagnosed until the disease is in its advanced stages. The United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) is a randomised controlled trial designed to assess the effect of screening on mortality. This report summarises the outcome of the prevalence (initial) screen in UKCTOCS. METHODS: Between 2001 and 2005, a total of 202 638 post-menopausal women aged 50-74 years were randomly assigned to no treatment (control; n=101 359); annual CA125 screening (interpreted using a risk of ovarian cancer algorithm) with transvaginal ultrasound scan as a second-line test (multimodal screening [MMS]; n=50 640); or annual screening with transvaginal ultrasound (USS; n=50 639) alone in a 2:1:1 ratio using a computer-generated random number algorithm. All women provided a blood sample at recruitment. Women randomised to the MMS group had their blood tested for CA125 and those randomised to the USS group were sent an appointment to attend for a transvaginal scan. Women with abnormal screens had repeat tests. Women with persistent abnormality on repeat screens underwent clinical evaluation and, where appropriate, surgery. This trial is registered as ISRCTN22488978 and with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00058032. FINDINGS: In the prevalence screen, 50 078 (98.9%) women underwent MMS, and 48 230 (95.2%) underwent USS. The main reasons for withdrawal were death (two MMS, 28 USS), non-ovarian cancer or other disease (none MMS, 66 USS), removal of ovaries (five MMS, 29 USS), relocation (none MMS, 39 USS), failure to attend three appointments for the screen (72 MMS, 757 USS), and participant changing their mind (483 MMS, 1490 USS). Overall, 4355 of 50 078 (8.7%) women in the MMS group and 5779 of 48 230 (12.0%) women in the USS group required a repeat test, and 167 (0.3%) women in the MMS group and 1894 (3.9%) women in the USS group required clinical evaluation. 97 of 50 078 (0.2%) women from the MMS group and 845 of 48 230 (1.8%) from the USS group underwent surgery. 42 (MMS) and 45 (USS) primary ovarian and tubal cancers were detected, including 28 borderline tumours (eight MMS, 20 USS). 28 (16 MMS, 12 USS) of 58 (48.3%; 95% CI 35.0-61.8) of the invasive cancers were stage I/II, with no difference (p=0.396) in stage distribution between the groups. A further 13 (five MMS, eight USS) women developed primary ovarian cancer during the year after the screen. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive-predictive values for all primary ovarian and tubal cancers were 89.4%, 99.8%, and 43.3% for MMS, and 84.9%, 98.2%, and 5.3% for USS, respectively. For primary invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancers, the sensitivity, specificity, and positive-predictive values were 89.5%, 99.8%, and 35.1% for MMS, and 75.0%, 98.2%, and 2.8% for USS, respectively. There was a significant difference in specificity (p<0.0001) but not sensitivity between the two screening groups for both primary ovarian and tubal cancers as well as primary epithelial invasive ovarian and tubal cancers. INTERPRETATION: The sensitivity of the MMS and USS screening strategies is encouraging. Specificity was higher in the MMS than in the USS group, resulting in lower rates of repeat testing and surgery. This in part reflects the high prevalence of benign adnexal abnormalities and the more frequent detection of borderline tumours in the USS group. The prevalence screen has established that the screening strategies are feasible. The results of ongoing screening are awaited so that the effect of screening on mortality can be determined.

Anaphylaxis is a clinical emergency which all healthcare professionals need to be able to recognize and manage. The European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology Anaphylaxis multidisciplinary Task Force has updated the 2014 guideline. The guideline was developed using the AGREE II framework and the GRADE approach. The evidence was systematically reviewed and recommendations were created by weighing up benefits and harms. The guideline was peer-reviewed by external experts and reviewed in a public consultation. The use of clinical criteria to identify anaphylaxis is suggested with blood sampling for the later measurement of tryptase. The prompt use of intramuscular adrenaline as first-line management is recommended with the availability of adrenaline autoinjectors to patients in the community. Pharmacokinetic data should be provided for adrenaline autoinjector devices. Structured, comprehensive training for people at risk of anaphylaxis is recommended. Simulation training and visual prompts for healthcare professionals are suggested to improve the management of anaphylaxis. It is suggested that school policies reflect anaphylaxis guidelines. The evidence for the management of anaphylaxis remains mostly at a very low level. There is an urgent need to prioritize clinical trials with the potential to improve the management of patients at risk of anaphylaxis.

U-BIOPRED is a European Union consortium of 20 academic institutions, 11 pharmaceutical companies and six patient organisations with the objective of improving the understanding of asthma disease mechanisms using a systems biology approach.This cross-sectional assessment of adults with severe asthma, mild/moderate asthma and healthy controls from 11 European countries consisted of analyses of patient-reported outcomes, lung function, blood and airway inflammatory measurements.Patients with severe asthma (nonsmokers, n=311; smokers/ex-smokers, n=110) had more symptoms and exacerbations compared to patients with mild/moderate disease (n=88) (2.5 exacerbations versus 0.4 in the preceding 12 months; p<0.001), with worse quality of life, and higher levels of anxiety and depression. They also had a higher incidence of nasal polyps and gastro-oesophageal reflux with lower lung function. Sputum eosinophil count was higher in severe asthma compared to mild/moderate asthma (median count 2.99% versus 1.05%; p=0.004) despite treatment with higher doses of inhaled and/or oral corticosteroids.Consistent with other severe asthma cohorts, U-BIOPRED is characterised by poor symptom control, increased comorbidity and airway inflammation, despite high levels of treatment. It is well suited to identify asthma phenotypes using the array of "omic" datasets that are at the core of this systems medicine approach.

When used in the treatment of hypertension propranolol is at least of similar potency to bethanidine, guanethidine, and methyldopa. Propranolol does not produce postural or exercise hypotension and it seems that it is often more acceptable to patients than conventional drugs. It usually produces the best control of the supine blood pressure.A series of 109 hypertensive patients was treated with propranolol; in nine the drug was withdrawn. In 92 of the patients a supine or standing blood pressure of 100 mm. Hg or less was achieved. Eighty of the patients had previously been treated with other potent drugs, and close comparisons and prolonged follow-up in 17 patients showed that diastolic pressures of 100 mm. Hg or less were achieved in more patients after propranolol than with guanethidine, bethanidine, or methyldopa.Sensitivity to propranolol varies widely, and dosage should be increased gradually. The hypotensive effect often takes six to eight weeks to reach its maximum. Propranolol reduces cardiac output but may also act by reducing the cardiac component of pressor stimuli; as a result the baroreceptors gradually regulate the blood pressure at a lower level. It is contraindicated in patients with obstructive airways disease or in uncompensated heart failure.

POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Morbidity and mortality) has been studied as a possible surgical audit system for a 9-month interval using a sample of 28 per cent of the general surgical workload. Mortality or survival was analysed as an endpoint. In this sample the published POSSUM predictor equation for mortality overpredicted deaths by a factor of more than two. The bulk of the overprediction occurred in the group at lowest risk (predicted mortality 10 per cent or less), in which death was overpredicted by a factor of six. This is the most important group for audit purposes since it contains the majority of surgical patients and is composed of fit patients undergoing minor surgery. The published predictor equation for mortality returns a minimum predicted mortality of 1.08 per cent, clearly far higher than that expected for a fit patient having minor surgery. Logistic regression was done on a set of 1485 surgical episodes to generate a local predictor equation for mortality. This process gave a predictor equation that fitted well with the observed mortality rate and gave a minimum predicted risk of mortality of 0.20 per cent. The previously published POSSUM predictor equation for mortality performed badly when tested using a standard test of goodness of fit for logistic regression and must be modified.

pre-eclampsia in the community

These guidelines have been replaced by BTS Pleural Disease Guideline 2010 Superseded By BTS Pleural Disease Guideline 2010: BTS Guidelines for the Management of Pleural Disease. Thorax 2003 May; 58(Suppl 2): 1–59.

BACKGROUND: Insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, also known as type 1 diabetes, is a life-threatening condition and is the third most common chronic illness among young people. As a result of minimal or non-existent insulin production, people with diabetes must take over the normally automatic task of regulation of blood glucose levels. This is achieved by a complex regimen involving multiple, daily administrations of insulin coordinated with dietary intake and energy expenditure and monitored by blood glucose testing. OBJECTIVES: To examine the effectiveness of educational and psychosocial interventions for adolescents with type 1 diabetes designed to improve their diabetes management. Specifically, it addressed the following research questions: (1) Do educational and psychosocial interventions for adolescents with type 1 diabetes have beneficial effects on biological and psychosocial outcomes? (2) Are there types or features of interventions that have been shown to be more effective than others? (3) What evidence is there of the cost-effectiveness of interventions? METHODS: A search strategy was formulated, piloted and refined. Three journals were handsearched, 11 electronic databases were searched and personal contacts, flyers, conferences and websites were used to notify the research community of the review to access further literature. This process generated 10,535 abstracts, which, after screening, resulted in 367 articles identified for retrieval. This number was augmented by hand-searching, personal contact and exploding references, and a final total of 457 articles were scrutinised. Of these, 64 reports describing 62 studies were identified as empirical papers evaluating educational or psychosocial interventions. The relevant data were extracted from the papers and summary tables for each study were prepared. Where possible, effect sizes were computed for outcomes from studies that included a randomised control group (CG) and other relevant information. RESULTS: A descriptive analysis of the 62 studies was undertaken. Most studies (67.7%) were conducted in the USA and 41% were randomised controlled trials (RCTs), none of which were UK-based. Only 48% of the reports provided an explicit theoretical rationale for the intervention. The mean number of participants was 53.8. The studies took place in various settings, evaluated a variety of interventions, involved various interventionists, addressed various components and assessed the effects by a range of outcomes, including measures of metabolic control and psychological and behavioural outcomes. Follow-up assessments were relatively rare. RESULTS - THE EFFECTIVENESS OF INTERVENTIONS: The 25 RCTs were examined in more detail and three of the most effective were described in depth. Effect sizes could be calculated for 14 studies. The mean (pooled) effect size for psychosocial outcomes was 0.37 and 0.33 for glycated haemoglobin with outliers (0.08 without outliers), indicating that these interventions have small to medium beneficial effects on diabetes management outcomes. A narrative review of the 21 pre-post studies with no CG was performed, including evaluations of interventions conducted at summer camps, interventions for poorly controlled patients and educational interventions. All studies reported beneficial effects. RESULTS - COST-EFFECTIVENESS: Few studies addressed economic considerations associated with interventions, and the lack of information on costs and the diversity of outcomes included by investigators impeded cost- effectiveness comparisons. Shorter hospitalisation at diagnosis is at least as effective in achieving control and avoiding complications in adolescence as longer stays. Home care may result in improved outcomes but may not be cheaper than hospital care at diagnosis. Targeting poorly controlled subjects may reduce adverse events and hospitalisations and may be more cost-effective than generic interventions. There is a need for rigorous cost-effectiveness studies of educational and psychosocial interventions for adolescents with type 1 diabetes that include longer-term considerations. CONCLUSIONS: The following conclusions were drawn from this review: (1) Educational and psychosocial interventions have small to medium beneficial effects on various diabetes management outcomes. (2) Well-designed trials of such interventions are needed in the UK (no completed RCTs of educational or psychosocial interventions for adolescents with type 1 diabetes conducted in the UK were found). (3) The evidence, arising primarily from studies in the USA, provides a starting point for the design of interventions in the UK. (4) Quantitative and narrative analysis of the evidence suggested that interventions are more likely to be effective if they demonstrate the inter-relatedness of the various aspects of diabetes management. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED)

These guidelines stemmed from a consensus meeting held by the British Photobiology Group (BPG) in 1999. Following this meeting one of the authors (J.M.M.) was invited to draw up guidelines for the management of actinic keratoses by the British Association of Dermatologists Therapy Guidelines and Audit Subcommittee. Relevant evidence was sought using the search terms 'solar keratosis' and 'actinic keratosis' in Medline from 1966 onwards. Additional and earlier literature was reviewed on the basis of references within post-1966 publications. All articles of apparent relevance were reviewed independently of the nature of the publication. The quality of the evidence elicited has been indicated. The National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (U.S.A.) was used for further data on topical chemotherapy. Papers were reviewed and discussed by the contributors to the BPG Workshop (see Acknowledgments). Recommendations are evidence based where possible. Strength of recommendation is coupled with quality of evidence. Strength of recommendation includes consideration of apparent cost-benefit and practical considerations. Quality of evidence reflects the nature of the trial structure that provides data of efficacy.

We report eight cases of epithelioid angiosarcoma arising in deep, usually intramuscular soft tissue. All the patients were men (mean age, 58). All the lesions arose in a limb or limb girdle. Cardinal morphologic features were the diffuse, sheetlike growth pattern, with only focally apparent vascular differentiation, and epithelioid tumor cells with a degree of intracytoplasmic vacuolation/lumen formation. Immunohistochemically, all eight cases coexpressed keratin as well as endothelial markers. In three cases, endothelial differentiation was confirmed ultrastructurally. Clinically, deep-seated epithelioid angiosarcomas are high-grade neoplasms that rapidly develop metastases. These findings expand the range of recognized epithelioid endothelial tumors and provide further evidence of keratin expression by such lesions. The presence of intracytoplasmic lumina/vacuoles (sometimes containing red blood cells) combined with the characteristic reticulin pattern and striking positivity for Factor VIII-RAg provide the clearest means of distinction from an epithelial metastasis.

The detrimental effects of air pollution on health have been recognized for most of the last century. Effective legislation has led to a change in the nature of the air pollutants in outdoor air in developed countries, while combustion of raw fuels in the indoor environment remains a major health hazard in developing countries. The mechanisms of how these pollutants exert their effects are likely to be different, but there is emerging evidence that the toxic effects of new photochemical pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide are likely to be related to infection. This review discusses the relationship between air pollution and infection and will explore some of the mechanisms of how both could act synergistically to cause respiratory illnesses especially in exacerbating symptoms in individuals with pre-existing respiratory conditions such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

These guidelines have been replaced by BTS Pleural Disease Guideline 2010 Superseded By BTS Pleural Disease Guideline 2010: BTS Guidelines for the Management of Pleural Disease. Thorax 2003 May; 58(Suppl 2): 1–59.

BACKGROUND: The failure of patients to take medicines in a way that leads to clinical benefit is a major challenge. A consensus has emerged that, on average, compliance sufficient to obtain therapeutic objectives occurs about half the time, with noncompliance contributing to therapeutic failure in the other half. These figures refer to simple oral regimens. There has been little work assessing compliance/concordance with complex treatment regimens for atopic eczema. Asthma schools led by specialist nurses have been shown to improve knowledge, use of therapies and clinical outcome. OBJECTIVES: To determine the effect of education and demonstration of topical therapies by specialist dermatology nurses on therapy utilization and severity of atopic eczema. METHODS: Fifty-one children with atopic eczema attending a paediatric dermatology clinic were followed for up to 1 year. At each visit the parent's knowledge about atopic eczema and its treatment and therapy utilization was recorded. The severity of the eczema was recorded using the six area, six sign atopic dermatitis severity score (SASSAD) and parental assessment of itch, sleep disturbance and irritability. At the first visit a specialist dermatology nurse explained and demonstrated how to use all of the topical treatments. This education was repeated at subsequent visits depending on the knowledge of the parent. RESULTS: At baseline less than 5% of parents had received/recalled receiving any explanation of the causes of eczema or demonstration of how to apply topical treatments. The eczema was poorly controlled in all children (mean SASSAD 42.9). Of the children, 24% were not being treated with any emollient cream/ointment; the mean use was 54 g weekly. Of the children, 25% were being inappropriately treated with potent or very potent topical steroids. Following repeated education and demonstration of topical therapies by a specialist dermatology nurse, there was an 89% reduction in the severity of the eczema. The main change in therapy utilization was an 800% increase in the use of emollients (to 426 g weekly of emollient cream/ointment) and no overall increase in the use of topical steroids, accounting for potency and quantity used. CONCLUSIONS: This study reinforces the importance of specialist dermatology nurses in the management of atopic eczema. It also confirms the opinion of patients, patient support groups, dermatologists and best practice guidelines that the most important intervention in the management of atopic eczema is to spend time to listen and explain its causes and demonstrate how to apply topical therapies.

The 30-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) (Goldberg, 1972) was administered to 196 consecutive new dermatology out-patients and 40 consecutive admissions to dermatology beds. Thirty per cent of the out-patients and 60 per cent of the in-patients obtained high scores, while half the high scorers in each group scored high on the Wakefield Self-Assessment Depression Scale (Snaith et al, 1971). These findings suggest that dermatology out-patients have a higher prevalence of psychiatric disorder than the general population, and dermatology in-patients a higher prevalence than general medical in-patients. High GHQ scores were associated with (a) diagnoses of acne, eczema, psoriasis or alopecia; with (b) extensive lesions on exposed parts of the body; and with (c) the use of high potency topical steroid. We indicate other areas that might be profitably explored in a full-scale study.

Anaphylaxis has been defined as a 'severe, life-threatening generalized or systemic hypersensitivity reaction'. However, data indicate that the vast majority of food-triggered anaphylactic reactions are not life-threatening. Nonetheless, severe life-threatening reactions do occur and are unpredictable. We discuss the concepts surrounding perceptions of severe, life-threatening allergic reactions to food by different stakeholders, with particular reference to the inclusion of clinical severity as a factor in allergy and allergen risk management. We review the evidence regarding factors that might be used to identify those at most risk of severe allergic reactions to food, and the consequences of misinformation in this regard. For example, a significant proportion of food-allergic children also have asthma, yet almost none will experience a fatal food-allergic reaction; asthma is not, in itself, a strong predictor for fatal anaphylaxis. The relationship between dose of allergen exposure and symptom severity is unclear. While dose appears to be a risk factor in at least a subgroup of patients, studies report that individuals with prior anaphylaxis do not have a lower eliciting dose than those reporting previous mild reactions. It is therefore important to consider severity and sensitivity as separate factors, as a highly sensitive individual will not necessarily experience severe symptoms during an allergic reaction. We identify the knowledge gaps that need to be addressed to improve our ability to better identify those most at risk of severe food-induced allergic reactions.

U-BIOPRED aims to characterise paediatric and adult severe asthma using conventional and innovative systems biology approaches. A total of 99 school-age children with severe asthma and 81 preschoolers with severe wheeze were compared with 49 school-age children with mild/moderate asthma and 53 preschoolers with mild/moderate wheeze in a cross-sectional study. Despite high-dose treatment, the severe cohorts had more severe exacerbations compared with the mild/moderate ones (annual medians: school-aged 3.0 versus 1.1, preschool 3.9 versus 1.8; p<0.001). Exhaled tobacco exposure was common in the severe wheeze cohort. Almost all participants in each cohort were atopic and had a normal body mass index. Asthma-related quality of life, as assessed by the Paediatric Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (PAQLQ) and the Paediatric Asthma Caregiver's Quality of Life Questionnaire (PACQLQ), was worse in the severe cohorts (mean±se school-age PAQLQ: 4.77±0.15 versus 5.80±0.19; preschool PACQLQ: 4.27±0.18 versus 6.04±0.18; both p≤0.001); however, mild/moderate cohorts also had significant morbidity. Impaired quality of life was associated with poor control and airway obstruction. Otherwise, the severe and mild/moderate cohorts were clinically very similar. Children with severe preschool wheeze or severe asthma are usually atopic and have impaired quality of life that is associated with poor control and airflow limitation: a very different phenotype from adult severe asthma. In-depth phenotyping of these children, integrating clinical data with high-dimensional biomarkers, may help to improve and tailor their clinical management.

Because illicit drugs are now widely consumed, every doctor needs to know their acute medical consequences and complications. Here, we review the problems associated with the different drugs from a systems-based viewpoint. Apart from the respiratory depressant effect of opioids, crack cocaine is the most common cause of respiratory complications, mainly linked with its mode of use, with airway burns, pneumothorax, pneumomediastinum, and lung syndromes being well-recognised sequelae. Because of its marked cardiovascular effects, cocaine is also a major cause of coronary syndromes and myocardial infarction. Amphetamines may produce similar effects less commonly. Hyperthermia may occur with cocaine toxicity or with 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) due to exertion or from serotonin syndrome. Cerebral haemorrhage may result from the use of amphetamines or cocaine. Hallucinations may follow consumption of LSD, amphetamines, or cocaine. MDMA is a major cause of acute severe hyponatraemia and also has been linked with hepatic syndromes. Collapse, convulsions, or coma may be caused in different circumstances by opioids, MDMA, or gamma hydroxybutyrate and may be aggravated by other sedatives, especially alcohol and benzodiazepines. Recognition of these acute complications is urgent, and treatment must be based on an understanding of the likely underlying problem as well as on basic principles of supportive care.

BACKGROUND: The increase in the worldwide incidence of endometrial cancer relates to rising obesity, falling fertility, and the ageing of the population. Transvaginal ultrasound (TVS) is a possible screening test, but there have been no large-scale studies. We report the performance of TVS screening in a large cohort. METHODS: We did a nested case-control study of postmenopausal women who underwent TVS in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) following recruitment between April 17, 2001, and Sept 29, 2005. Endometrial thickness and endometrial abnormalities were recorded, and follow-up, through national registries and a postal questionnaire, documented the diagnosis of endometrial cancer. Our primary outcome measure was endometrial cancer and atypical endometrial hyperplasia (AEH). Performance characteristics of endometrial thickness and abnormalities for detection of endometrial cancer within 1 year of TVS were calculated. Epidemiological variables were used to develop a logistic regression model and assess a screening strategy for women at higher risk. Our study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00058032, and with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial register, number ISRCTN22488978. FINDINGS: 48,230 women underwent TVS in the UKCTOCS prevalence screen. 9078 women were ineligible because they had undergone a hysterectomy and 2271 because their endometrial thickness had not been recorded; however, 157 of these women had an endometrial abnormality on TVS and were included in the analysis. Median follow-up was 5·11 years (IQR 4·05-5·95). 136 women with endometrial cancer or AEH within 1 year of TVS were included in our primary analysis. The optimum endometrial thickness cutoff for endometrial cancer or AEH was 5·15 mm, with sensitivity of 80·5% (95% CI 72·7-86·8) and specificity of 86·2% (85·8-86·6). Sensitivity and specificity at a 5 mm or greater cutoff were 80·5% (72·7-86·8) and 85·7% (85·4-86·2); for women with a 5 mm or greater cutoff plus endometrial abnormalities, the sensitivity and specificity were 85·3% (78·2-90·8) and 80·4% (80·0-80·8), respectively. For a cutoff of 10 mm or greater, sensitivity and specificity were 54·1% (45·3-62·8) and 97·2% (97·0-97·4). When our analysis was restricted to the 96 women with endometrial cancer or AEH who reported no symptoms of postmenopausal bleeding at the UKCTOCS scan before diagnosis and had an endometrial thickness measurement available, a cutoff of 5 mm achieved a sensitivity of 77·1% (67·8-84·3) and specificity of 85·8% (85·7-85·9). The logistic regression model identified 25% of the population as at high risk and 39·5% of endometrial cancer or AEH cases were identified within this high risk group. In this high-risk population, a cutoff at 6·75 mm achieved sensitivity of 84·3% (71·4-93·0) and specificity of 89·9% (89·3-90·5). INTERPRETATION: Our findings show that TVS screening for endometrial cancer has good sensitivity in postmenopausal women. The burden of diagnostic procedures and false-positive results can be reduced by limiting screening to a higher-risk group. The role of population screening for endometrial cancer remains uncertain, but our findings are of immediate value in the management of increased endometrial thickness in postmenopausal women undergoing pelvic scans for reasons other than vaginal bleeding.