Te Pūnaha Matatini

International audience

Spatial predictions of near-surface air temperature ( T a i r ) in Antarctica are required as baseline information for a variety of research disciplines. Since the network of weather stations in Antarctica is sparse, remote sensing methods have large potential due to their capabilities and accessibility. Based on the MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data, T a i r at the exact time of satellite overpass was modelled at a spatial resolution of 1 km using data from 32 weather stations. The performance of a simple linear regression model to predict T a i r from LST was compared to the performance of three machine learning algorithms: Random Forest (RF), generalized boosted regression models (GBM) and Cubist. In addition to LST, auxiliary predictor variables were tested in these models. Their relevance was evaluated by a Cubist-based forward feature selection in conjunction with leave-one-station-out cross-validation to reduce the impact of spatial overfitting. GBM performed best to predict T a i r using LST and the month of the year as predictor variables. Using the trained model, T a i r could be estimated with a leave-one-station-out cross-validated R 2 of 0.71 and a RMSE of 10.51 ∘ C. However, the machine learning approaches only slightly outperformed the simple linear estimation of T a i r from LST ( R 2 of 0.64, RMSE of 11.02 ∘ C). Using the trained model allowed creating time series of T a i r over Antarctica for 2013. Extending the training data by including more years will allow developing time series of T a i r from 2000 on.

We use a globally unique dataset that scores every individual academic's holistic research performance in New Zealand to test several common explanations for the gender pay gap in universities. We find a man's odds of being ranked professor or associate professor are more than double a woman's with similar recent research score, age, field, and university. We observe a lifetime gender pay gap of ~NZ$400,000, of which research score and age explain less than half. Our ability to examine the full spectrum of research performance allows us to reject the 'male variability hypothesis' theory that the preponderance of men amongst the 'superstars' explains the lifetime performance pay gap observed. Indeed women whose research career trajectories resemble men's still get paid less than men. From 2003-12, women at many ranks improved their research scores by more than men, but moved up the academic ranks more slowly. We offer some possible explanations for our findings, and show that the gender gap in universities will never disappear in most academic fields if current hiring practices persist.

Many researchers believe that prehistoric Rapa Nui society collapsed because of centuries of unchecked population growth within a fragile environment. Recently, the notion of societal collapse has been questioned with the suggestion that extreme societal and demographic change occurred only after European contact in AD 1722. Establishing the veracity of demographic dynamics has been hindered by the lack of empirical evidence and the inability to establish a precise chronological framework. We use chronometric dates from hydrated obsidian artifacts recovered from habitation sites in regional study areas to evaluate regional land-use within Rapa Nui. The analysis suggests region-specific dynamics including precontact land use decline in some near-coastal and upland areas and postcontact increases and subsequent declines in other coastal locations. These temporal land-use patterns correlate with rainfall variation and soil quality, with poorer environmental locations declining earlier. This analysis confirms that the intensity of land use decreased substantially in some areas of the island before European contact.

Abstract Ecological forecasting provides a powerful set of methods for predicting short‐ and long‐term change in living systems. Forecasts are now widely produced, enabling proactive management for many applied ecological problems. However, despite numerous calls for an increased emphasis on prediction in ecology, the potential for forecasting to accelerate ecological theory development remains underrealized. Here, we provide a conceptual framework describing how ecological forecasts can energize and advance ecological theory. We emphasize the many opportunities for future progress in this area through increased forecast development, comparison and synthesis. Our framework describes how a forecasting approach can shed new light on existing ecological theories while also allowing researchers to address novel questions. Through rigorous and repeated testing of hypotheses, forecasting can help to refine theories and understand their generality across systems. Meanwhile, synthesizing across forecasts allows for the development of novel theory about the relative predictability of ecological variables across forecast horizons and scales. We envision a future where forecasting is integrated as part of the toolset used in fundamental ecology. By outlining the relevance of forecasting methods to ecological theory, we aim to decrease barriers to entry and broaden the community of researchers using forecasting for fundamental ecological insight.

Abstract The management of natural resources—from forests to fisheries to freshwater—is becoming increasingly complex and requires new tools and processes for engaging with individuals, communities, and decision-makers. Policy makers and practitioners have begun using serious games (SGs) (those used for purposes other than entertainment) to overcome some of the complex challenges of governing resources in social-ecological systems. This paper uses a systematic literature review methodology to assess role-playing SGs for natural resource management. Fifty-two articles from the role-playing game (RPG) subset of SGs are identified, synthesised and analysed using a multi-criteria evaluation framework. First, we explore three theoretical and conceptual elements of games: principles of RPGs, functions of games, and (practical) game characteristics. We evaluate game elements, including game design, adherence to reality and the degree to which games integrate elements of participatory—and action research. These dimensions of RPGs are then analysed and discussed. Particular attention is paid to the value and application of RPGs to address complex problems with interacting environmental, social, cultural and economic challenges, and the extent to which they can inform adaptive governance solutions. Results show that RPGs can be a valuable tool at different levels; however, we also identify important gaps in the current state of knowledge, in particular, related to bridging community—and higher-level decision-making scales through RPGs.

Aotearoa New Zealand's response to the COVID-19 pandemic is considered one of the best in the world. A major component of the government response was the communication of public health measures. In this paper, we approach Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's daily press briefings with the Director-General of Health, Ashley Bloomfield as a case study of government communication during a public health crisis. A reflexive thematic analysis leads us to identify three key themes: 1) open, honest and straightforward communication; 2) distinctive and motivational language; and 3) expressions of care. Situating our findings in the fields of crisis communication, science communication and psychology, we argue that the messages presented in the 2020 daily briefings supported the New Zealand Government's COVID-19 elimination strategy through building trust with the audience and framing the 'lockdown' as an urgent, collective and meaningful cause, mobilising New Zealanders to support public health measures.

Abstract There is limited evidence as to how COVID-19 infection fatality rates (IFR) may vary by ethnicity. We combine demographic and health data for ethnic groupings in Aotearoa New Zealand with international data on IFR for different age groups to estimate inequities in IFR by ethnicity. We find that, if age is the dominant factor determining IFR, estimated IFR for Māori is around 50% higher than non-Māori. If underlying health conditions are more important than age per se, then estimated IFR for Māori is more than 2.5 times that of New Zealand European, and estimated IFR for Pasifika is almost double that of New Zealand European. IFRs for Māori and Pasifika are likely to be increased above these estimates by racism within the healthcare system and other inequities not reflected in official data. IFR does not account for differences among ethnicities in COVID-19 incidence, which could be higher in Māori and Pasifika as a result of crowded housing and higher inter- generational contact rates. These factors should be included in future disease incidence modelling. The communities at the highest risk will be those with elderly populations, and Māori and Pasifika communities, where the compounded effects of underlying health conditions, socioeconomic disadvantage, and structural racism result in imbricated risk of contracting COVID-19, becoming unwell, and death.

Abstract A global assessment of fishing patterns and fishing pressure from 110 different Ecopath models, representing marine ecosystems throughout the world and covering the period 1970–2007, show that human exploitation across trophic levels (TLs) is highly unbalanced and skewed towards low productive species at high TLs, which are around two TLs higher than the animal protein we get from terrestrial farming. Overall, exploitation levels from low trophic species were <15% of production, and only 18% of the total number of exploited groups and species were harvested >40% of their production. Generally, well-managed fisheries from temperate ecosystems were more selectively harvested at higher exploitation rates than tropical and upwelling (tropical and temperate) fisheries, resulting in potentially larger long-term changes to the ecosystem structure and functioning. The results indicate a very inefficient utilization of the food energy value of marine production. Rebuilding overfished components of the ecosystem and changing focus to balancing exploitation across a wider range of TLs, i.e. balanced harvesting, has the potential to significantly increase overall catches from global marine fisheries.

BACKGROUND: Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests are the gold standard for detecting recent infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Reverse transcription PCR sensitivity varies over the course of an individual's infection, related to changes in viral load. Differences in testing methods, and individual-level variables such as age, may also affect sensitivity. METHODS: Using data from New Zealand, we estimate the time-varying sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR under varying temporal, biological, and demographic factors. RESULTS: Sensitivity peaks 4-5 days postinfection at 92.7% (91.4%-94.0%) and remains over 88% between 5 and 14 days postinfection. After the peak, sensitivity declined more rapidly in vaccinated cases compared with unvaccinated, females compared with males, those aged under 40 compared with over 40s, and Pacific peoples compared with other ethnicities. CONCLUSIONS: Reverse transcription PCR remains a sensitive technique and has been an effective tool in New Zealand's border and postborder measures to control coronavirus disease 2019. Our results inform model parameters and decisions concerning routine testing frequency.

Sustainable land management requires reliable information about soil hydraulic properties. Among these properties, available water-holding capacity (AWC) is a key attribute, as it quantifies the amount of water available for plants that the soil can hold. Since direct measurements of AWC are costly, pedotransfer functions (PTF) are often used to estimate AWC, leveraging statistical relationships with properties that are easier to measure, such as texture, bulk density, and organic carbon content. This study evaluates visible near-infrared spectroscopy (vis-NIR) as an alternative approach to predict volumetric water content at field capacity (FC) and permanent wilting point (PWP) - AWC being the difference between PWP and FC. A suite of 970 vis-NIR soil spectra, recorded from air-dried, 2-mm, sieved soil samples, were associated with FC and PWP analytical data obtained from New Zealand's National Soils Database. Partial least squares (PLS) regression and support vector machines on PLS latent variables (PLS-SVM) were used for spectroscopic modelling. With root mean squared errors below 7% and 5% for FC and PWP, respectively, our results indicate that vis-NIR spectroscopy can be used to quantitatively predict volumetric water content at FC and PWP.

Women are under-represented in science. We show that the extent of the gender gap varies depending on the status of the position in question and there are simple steps that can be taken to improve diversity. We analyse data on the activities of over 30 science societies spanning four countries and five distinct discipline areas. Our results show that women tend to be equally represented in lower status roles and awards, e.g. student prizes and editorships, but under-represented in higher status roles, e.g. late-career awards and chief editorships. We develop a simple mathematical model to explore the role of homophily in decision making and quantify the effect of simple steps that can be taken to improve diversity. We conclude that, when the stakes are low, efforts to tackle historic gender bias towards men have been at least partially successful, but when the stakes are higher male dominance is often still the norm.

The ability of cells to undergo collective movement plays a fundamental role in tissue repair, development and cancer. Interactions occurring at the level of individual cells may lead to the development of spatial structure which will affect the dynamics of migrating cells at a population level. Models that try to predict population-level behaviour often take a mean-field approach, which assumes that individuals interact with one another in proportion to their average density and ignores the presence of any small-scale spatial structure. In this work, we develop a lattice-free individual-based model (IBM) that uses random walk theory to model the stochastic interactions occurring at the scale of individual migrating cells. We incorporate a mechanism for local directional bias such that an individual's direction of movement is dependent on the degree of cell crowding in its neighbourhood. As an alternative to the mean-field approach, we also employ spatial moment theory to develop a population-level model which accounts for spatial structure and predicts how these individual-level interactions propagate to the scale of the whole population. The IBM is used to derive an equation for dynamics of the second spatial moment (the average density of pairs of cells) which incorporates the neighbour-dependent directional bias, and we solve this numerically for a spatially homogeneous case.

Significance Fossil evidence shows that Polynesians introduced the tropical crop taro ( Colocasia esculenta ) during initial colonization of the subtropical South Pacific islands and temperate New Zealand after 1200 CE, establishing garden ecosystems with similar commensal plants and invertebrates. Sedimentary charcoal and fossil remains indicate how frequent burning and perennial cultivation overcame the ecological constraints for taro production, particularly the temperate forest cover of New Zealand. An increase in short-lived plants, indicating a transition toward higher-intensity production, followed rapid woody forest decline and species extinctions on all islands. The relatively recent fossil records from the subtropical and temperate islands of Polynesia provide unique insights into the ecological processes behind the spread of Neolithic crops into areas marginal for production.

Claims about human behavior have been hampered by limited availability of comparable data across cultures. Invariance testing has been proposed to address questions about the comparability of data, yet statistical methods have been challenged on various grounds across psychology and related fields. We highlight how current debates confuse distinct issues and fail to consider the role of data within science. We aim to overcome the impasse by a) summarizing various criticisms, b) distinguishing five mapping processes that occur during a typical research project and c) exploring how thinking about invariance as mapping can move current discussions forward. Specifically, we differentiate 1) mapping ideas to theoretical constructs and concepts, 2) mapping constructs to stimuli, 3) mapping participants’ responses to stimuli onto numerical representations, 4) testing internal relations of stimuli responses (the typical focus of statistical invariance testing) and 5) mapping empirical observations back to theoretical statements. We treat invariance testing as a theory-guided process that offers important insights about instruments, construct validity and psychological theories throughout the research process that are currently missed by focusing on only the statistical details. Psychological claims that are valid for all humans depend on questions of invariance in the broad sense that we outline here.

We estimate the impact of the NZ Marsden Fund on research success, by comparing the subsequent performance of funded and unfunded researchers. We control for selection bias using the Marsden panel rankings. We find that funding is associated with a 6%–15% increase in publications and an 11%–22% increase in citation-weighted papers for research teams. We attempt to pin down the dynamic structure of this effect by looking at the research trajectories of individual researchers, but this model yields inconsistent results. We find no systematic evidence that Marsden panel rankings are predictive of subsequent success.

We develop a mathematical model to estimate the effect of New Zealand's vaccine rollout on the potential spread and health impacts of COVID-19. The main purpose of this study is to provide a basis for policy advice on border restrictions and control measures in response to outbreaks that may occur during the vaccination roll-out. The model can be used to estimate the theoretical population immunity threshold, which represents a point in the vaccine rollout at which border restrictions and other controls could be removed and only small, occasional outbreaks would take place. We find that, with a basic reproduction number of 6, approximately representing the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, and under baseline vaccine effectiveness assumptions, reaching the population immunity threshold would require close to 100% of the total population to be vaccinated. Since this coverage is not likely to be achievable in practice, relaxing controls completely would risk serious health impacts. However, the higher vaccine coverage is, the more collective protection the population has against adverse health outcomes from COVID-19, and the easier it will become to control outbreaks. There remains considerable uncertainty in model outputs, in part because of the potential for the evolution of new variants. If new variants arise that are more transmissible or vaccine resistant, an increase in vaccine coverage will be needed to provide the same level of protection.

Abstract Aims We aim to quantify differences in clinical outcomes from COVID-19 infection in Aotearoa New Zealand by ethnicity with a focus on risk of hospitalisation. Methods We used data on age, ethnicity, deprivation index, pre-existing health conditions, and clinical outcomes on 1,829 COVID-19 cases reported in New Zealand. We used a logistic regression model to calculate odds ratios for the risk of hospitalisation by ethnicity. We also consider length of hospital stay and risk of fatality. Results Māori have 2.50 times greater odds of hospitalisation (95% CI 1.39 – 4.51) than non-Māori, non-Pacific people, after controlling for age and pre-existing conditions. Pacific people have 3 times greater odds (95% CI 1.75 – 5.33). Conclusions Structural inequities and systemic racism in the healthcare system mean that Māori and Pacific communities face a much greater health burden from COVID-19. Older people and those with pre-existing health conditions are also at greater risk. This should inform future policy decisions including prioritising groups for vaccination.

Abstract Invasions by alien pest species contribute heavily to global biodiversity decline, with invasive mammals having some of the greatest impacts on endemic biota. Pest management within ecological restorations is therefore critical for conserving threatened biota. Coordinating restoration efforts at global scale requires evidence of the relative efficacy of different pest‐managed restoration approaches (“regimes”) for enhancing biodiversity. Our national meta‐analysis of 447 biodiversity responses across 16 ecological restorations quantifies significant benefits for biodiversity over two decades and multiple trophic levels, and across a spectrum of invasive mammal suppression‐to‐eradication regimes. Deeply endemic species had the strongest responses to pest control compared with recent native or introduced biota. Using this information, we predict levels of pest suppression required to confer biodiversity benefits, to guide future management strategies. Our findings provide new evidence that invasive pest control is an effective approach to ecological restoration, to aid decision‐makers in setting objectives and making targeted investments.

One Health recognizes the health of humans, agriculture, wildlife, and the environment are interrelated. The concept has been embraced by international health and environmental authorities such as WHO, WOAH, FAO, and UNEP, but One Health approaches have been more practiced by researchers than national or international authorities. To identify priorities for operationalizing One Health beyond research contexts, we conducted 41 semi-structured interviews with professionals across One Health sectors (public health, environment, agriculture, wildlife) and institutional contexts, who focus on national-scale and international applications. We identify important challenges, solutions, and priorities for delivering the One Health agenda through government action. Participants said One Health has made progress with motivating stakeholders to attempt One Health approaches, but achieving implementation needs more guidance (action plans for how to leverage or change current government infrastructure to accommodate cross-sector policy and strategic mission planning) and facilitation (behavioral change, dedicated personnel, new training model).