Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences

Significance Agricultural production is vulnerable to climate change. Understanding climate change, especially the temperature impacts, is critical if policymakers, agriculturalists, and crop breeders are to ensure global food security. Our study, by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods, shows that independent methods consistently estimated negative temperature impacts on yields of four major crops at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops, with important implications for developing crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure future food supply of an increasing world population.

Plant phenology, the annually recurring sequence of plant developmental stages, is important for plant functioning and ecosystem services and their biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. Plant phenology depends on temperature, and the current rapid climate change has revived interest in understanding and modeling the responses of plant phenology to the warming trend and the consequences thereof for ecosystems. Here, we review recent progresses in plant phenology and its interactions with climate change. Focusing on the start (leaf unfolding) and end (leaf coloring) of plant growing seasons, we show that the recent rapid expansion in ground- and remote sensing- based phenology data acquisition has been highly beneficial and has supported major advances in plant phenology research. Studies using multiple data sources and methods generally agree on the trends of advanced leaf unfolding and delayed leaf coloring due to climate change, yet these trends appear to have decelerated or even reversed in recent years. Our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the plant phenology responses to climate warming is still limited. The interactions between multiple drivers complicate the modeling and prediction of plant phenology changes. Furthermore, changes in plant phenology have important implications for ecosystem carbon cycles and ecosystem feedbacks to climate, yet the quantification of such impacts remains challenging. We suggest that future studies should primarily focus on using new observation tools to improve the understanding of tropical plant phenology, on improving process-based phenology modeling, and on the scaling of phenology from species to landscape-level.

The China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD) is the first high spatial-temporal resolution gridded near-surface meteorological dataset developed specifically for studies of land surface processes in China. The dataset was made through fusion of remote sensing products, reanalysis datasets and in-situ station data. Its record begins in January 1979 and is ongoing (currently up to December 2018) with a temporal resolution of three hours and a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Seven near-surface meteorological elements are provided in the CMFD, including 2-meter air temperature, surface pressure, and specific humidity, 10-meter wind speed, downward shortwave radiation, downward longwave radiation and precipitation rate. Validations against observations measured at independent stations show that the CMFD is of superior quality than the GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System); this is because a larger number of stations are used to generate the CMFD than are utilised in the GLDAS. Due to its continuous temporal coverage and consistent quality, the CMFD is one of the most widely-used climate datasets for China.

Microplastics have recently been detected in the atmosphere of urban, suburban, and even remote areas far away from source regions of microplastics, suggesting the potential long-distance atmospheric transport for microplastics. There still exist questions regarding the occurrence, fate, transport, and effect of atmospheric microplastics. These questions arise due to limited physical analysis and understanding of atmospheric microplastic pollution in conjunction with a lack of standardized sampling and identification methods. This paper reviews the current status of knowledge on atmospheric microplastics, the methods for sample collection, analysis and detection. We review and compare the methods used in the previous studies and provide recommendations for atmospheric microplastic sampling and measurement. Furthermore, we summarize the findings related to atmospheric microplastic characteristics, including abundance, size, shapes, colours, and polymer types. Microplastics occur in the atmosphere from urban to remote areas, with an abundance/deposition spanning 1–3 orders of magnitude across different sites. Fibres and fragments are the most frequently reported shapes and the types of plastic which generally aligns with world plastic demand. We conclude that atmospheric microplastics require further research and greater understanding to identify its global distributions and potential exposure to human health through further field sampling and implementation of standardized analytical protocols.

Abstract In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite‐derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade −1 ) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice‐covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade −1 ) to ice‐free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade −1 ). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes.

The Central Asian Orogenic Belt records the accretion and convergence of three collage systems that were finally rotated into two major oroclines. The Mongolia collage system was a long, N–S-oriented composite ribbon that was rotated to its current orientation when the Mongol-Okhotsk orocline was formed. The components of the Kazakhstan collage system were welded together into a long, single composite arc that was bent to form the Kazakhstan orocline. The cratons of Tarim and North China were united and sutured by the Beishan orogen, which terminated with formation of the Solonker suture in northern China. All components of the three collage systems were generated by the Neoproterozoic and were amalgamated in the Permo-Triassic. The Central Asian Orogenic Belt evolved by multiple convergence and accretion of many orogenic components during multiple phases of amalgamation, followed by two phases of orocline rotation.

The reliable detection and attribution of changes in vegetation growth is a prerequisite for the development of strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This is an extraordinary challenge. To our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively detect and attribute a greening trend in China over the last three decades. We use three different satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) datasets for detection as well as five different process-based ecosystem models for attribution. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition are identified as the most likely causes of the greening trend in China, explaining 85% and 41% of the average growing-season LAI trend (LAIGS) estimated by satellite datasets (average trend of 0.0070 yr(-1), ranging from 0.0035 yr(-1) to 0.0127 yr(-1)), respectively. The contribution of nitrogen deposition is more clearly seen in southern China than in the north of the country. Models disagree about the contribution of climate change alone to the trend in LAIGS at the country scale (one model shows a significant increasing trend, whereas two others show significant decreasing trends). However, the models generally agree on the negative impacts of climate change in north China and Inner Mongolia and the positive impact in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Provincial forest area change tends to be significantly correlated with the trend of LAIGS (P < 0.05), and marginally significantly (P = 0.07) correlated with the residual of LAIGS trend, calculated as the trend observed by satellite minus that estimated by models through considering the effects of climate change, rising CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, across different provinces. This result highlights the important role of China's afforestation program in explaining the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth.

In the Arctic, climate warming enhances vegetation activity by extending the length of the growing season and intensifying maximum rates of productivity. In turn, increased vegetation productivity reduces albedo, which causes a positive feedback on temperature. Over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), regional vegetation greening has also been observed in response to recent warming. Here, we show that in contrast to arctic regions, increased growing season vegetation activity over the TP may have attenuated surface warming. This negative feedback on growing season vegetation temperature is attributed to enhanced evapotranspiration (ET). The extra energy available at the surface, which results from lower albedo, is efficiently dissipated by evaporative cooling. The net effect is a decrease in daily maximum temperature and the diurnal temperature range, which is supported by statistical analyses of in situ observations and by decomposition of the surface energy budget. A daytime cooling effect from increased vegetation activity is also modeled from a set of regional weather research and forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model simulations, but with a magnitude smaller than observed, likely because the WRF model simulates a weaker ET enhancement. Our results suggest that actions to restore native grasslands in degraded areas, roughly one-third of the plateau, will both facilitate a sustainable ecological development in this region and have local climate cobenefits. More accurate simulations of the biophysical coupling between the land surface and the atmosphere are needed to help understand regional climate change over the TP, and possible larger scale feedbacks between climate in the TP and the Asian monsoon system.

Recent warming significantly advanced leaf onset in the northern hemisphere. This signal cannot be accurately reproduced by current models parameterized by daily mean temperature (T(mean)). Here using in situ observations of leaf unfolding dates (LUDs) in Europe and the United States, we show that the interannual anomalies of LUD during 1982-2011 are triggered by daytime (Tmax) more than by nighttime temperature (T(min)). Furthermore, an increase of 1 °C in Tmax would advance LUD by 4.7 days in Europe and 4.3 days in the United States, more than the conventional temperature sensitivity estimated from T(mean). The triggering role of Tmax, rather than the T(min) or T(mean) variable, is also supported by analysis of the large-scale patterns of satellite-derived vegetation green-up in spring in the northern hemisphere (>30 °N). Our results suggest a new conceptual framework of leaf onset using daytime temperature to improve the performance of phenology modules in current Earth system models.

-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback.

, likely because of an intensified anticyclonic circulation anomaly during summer. These results suggest that offline model simulations can overestimate the increase of soil dryness in response to afforestation in North China, if vegetation feedbacks lead to increased precipitation like in our study.

A finer record of biodiversity We have pressing, human-generated reasons to explore the influence of environmental change on biodiversity. Looking into the past can not only inform our understanding of this relationship but also help us to understand current change. Paleontological records depend on fossil availability and predictive modeling, however, and thus tend to give us a picture with large temporal jumps, millions of years wide. Such a scale makes it difficult to truly understand the action of environmental forces on ecological processes. Enabled by a supercomputer, Fan et al. used machine learning to analyze a large marine Paleozoic dataset, creating a record with time intervals of only ∼26,000 years (see the Perspective by Wagner). This fine-scale resolution revealed new events and important details of previously described patterns. Science , this issue p. 272 ; see also p. 249

Abstract Siliciclastic sedimentary rocks derived from the southern Lhasa terrane, sitting depositionally upon rocks of the northern Indian passive continental margin, provide an estimate of the age of initial contact between the continental parts of the Indian and Asian plates. We report sedimentological, sedimentary petrological, and geochronological data from Upper Cretaceous‐Paleocene strata in the Sangdanlin section, located along the southern flank of the Indus‐Yarlung suture zone in southern Tibet. This is probably the most proximal, and therefore the oldest, record of the India‐Asia collision. These strata were deposited by high‐density turbidity currents (or concentrated density flows) and suspension settling of pelagic biogenic debris in a deep‐marine setting. An abrupt change from quartz‐arenitic to feldspatholithic sandstone compositions marks the transition from Indian to Asian sediment provenance. The abrupt compositional change is accompanied by changes in U‐Pb ages of detrital zircons diagnostic of a sediment provenance reversal, from Indian to Asian sources. The timing of the transition is bracketed between ~60 Ma and 58.5 ± 0.6 Ma by detrital zircon U‐Pb ages and zircon U‐Pb ages from a tuffaceous bed in the upper part of the section. In the context of a palinspastically restored regional paleogeographic framework, data from the Sangdanlin section combined with previously published data from the northern Tethyan Himalaya and the frontal Nepalese Lesser Himalaya and Subhimalaya suggest that a flexural wave migrated ~1300 km southward across what is now the Himalayan thrust belt from Paleocene time to the present.

The ongoing changes in vegetation spring phenology in temperate/cold regions are widely attributed to temperature. However, in arid/semiarid ecosystems, the correlation between spring temperature and phenology is much less clear. We test the hypothesis that precipitation plays an important role in the temperature dependency of phenology in arid/semiarid regions. We therefore investigated the influence of preseason precipitation on satellite-derived estimates of starting date of vegetation growing season (SOS) across the Tibetan Plateau (TP). We observed two clear patterns linking precipitation to SOS. First, SOS is more sensitive to interannual variations in preseason precipitation in more arid than in wetter areas. Spatially, an increase in long-term averaged preseason precipitation of 10 mm corresponds to a decrease in the precipitation sensitivity of SOS by about 0.01 day mm(-1) . Second, SOS is more sensitive to variations in preseason temperature in wetter than in dryer areas of the plateau. A spatial increase in precipitation of 10 mm corresponds to an increase in temperature sensitivity of SOS of 0.25 day °C(-1) (0.25 day SOS advance per 1 °C temperature increase). Those two patterns indicate both direct and indirect impacts of precipitation on SOS on TP. This study suggests a balance between maximizing benefit from the limiting climatic resource and minimizing the risk imposed by other factors. In wetter areas, the lower risk of drought allows greater temperature sensitivity of SOS to maximize the thermal benefit, which is further supported by the weaker interannual partial correlation between growing degree days and preseason precipitation. In more arid areas, maximizing the benefit of water requires greater sensitivity of SOS to precipitation, with reduced sensitivity to temperature. This study highlights the impacts of precipitation on SOS in a large cold and arid/semiarid region and suggests that influences of water should be included in SOS module of terrestrial ecosystem models for drylands.

Earlier vegetation greening under climate change raises evapotranspiration and thus lowers spring soil moisture, yet the extent and magnitude of this water deficit persistence into the following summer remain elusive. We provide observational evidence that increased foliage cover over the Northern Hemisphere, during 1982-2011, triggers an additional soil moisture deficit that is further carried over into summer. Climate model simulations independently support this and attribute the driving process to be larger increases in evapotranspiration than in precipitation. This extra soil drying is projected to amplify the frequency and intensity of summer heatwaves. Most feedbacks operate locally, except for a notable teleconnection where extra moisture transpired over Europe is transported to central Siberia. Model results illustrate that this teleconnection offsets Siberian soil moisture losses from local spring greening. Our results highlight that climate change adaptation planning must account for the extra summer water and heatwave stress inherited from warming-induced earlier greening.

With accumulation of carbon cycle observations and model developments over the past decades, exploring interannual variation (IAV) of terrestrial carbon cycle offers the opportunity to better understand climate-carbon cycle relationships. However, despite growing research interest, uncertainties remain on some fundamental issues, such as the contributions of different regions, constituent fluxes and climatic factors to carbon cycle IAV. Here we overviewed the literature on carbon cycle IAV about current understanding of these issues. Observations and models of the carbon cycle unanimously show the dominance of tropical land ecosystems to the signal of global carbon cycle IAV, where tropical semiarid ecosystems contribute as much as the combination of all other tropical ecosystems. Vegetation photosynthesis contributes more than ecosystem respiration to IAV of the global net land carbon flux, but large uncertainties remain on the contribution of fires and other disturbance fluxes. Climatic variations are the major drivers to the IAV of net land carbon flux. Although debate remains on whether the dominant driver is temperature or moisture variability, their interaction,that is, the dependence of carbon cycle sensitivity to temperature on moisture conditions, is emerging as key regulators of the carbon cycle IAV. On timescales from the interannual to the centennial, global carbon cycle variability will be increasingly contributed by northern land ecosystems and oceans. Therefore, both improving Earth system models (ESMs) with the progressive understanding on the fast processes manifested at interannual timescale and expanding carbon cycle observations at broader spatial and longer temporal scales are critical to better prediction on evolution of the carbon-climate system.

Abstract The timing of the end of the vegetation growing season ( EOS ) plays a key role in terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycles. Autumn phenology is, however, still poorly understood, and previous studies generally focused on few species or were very limited in scale. In this study, we applied four methods to extract EOS dates from NDVI records between 1982 and 2011 for the Northern Hemisphere, and determined the temporal correlations between EOS and environmental factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation and insolation), as well as the correlation between spring and autumn phenology, using partial correlation analyses. Overall, we observed a trend toward later EOS in ~70% of the pixels in Northern Hemisphere, with a mean rate of 0.18 ± 0.38 days yr −1 . Warming preseason temperature was positively associated with the rate of EOS in most of our study area, except for arid/semi‐arid regions, where the precipitation sum played a dominant positive role. Interestingly, increased preseason insolation sum might also lead to a later date of EOS . In addition to the climatic effects on EOS , we found an influence of spring vegetation green‐up dates on EOS , albeit biome dependent. Our study, therefore, suggests that both environmental factors and spring phenology should be included in the modeling of EOS to improve the predictions of autumn phenology as well as our understanding of the global carbon and nutrient balances.

Combustion-derived black carbon (BC) aerosols accelerate glacier melting in the Himalayas and in Tibet (the Third Pole (TP)), thereby limiting the sustainable freshwater supplies for billions of people. However, the sources of BC reaching the TP remain uncertain, hindering both process understanding and efficient mitigation. Here we present the source-diagnostic Δ(14)C/δ(13)C compositions of BC isolated from aerosol and snowpit samples in the TP. For the Himalayas, we found equal contributions from fossil fuel (46±11%) and biomass (54±11%) combustion, consistent with BC source fingerprints from the Indo-Gangetic Plain, whereas BC in the remote northern TP predominantly derives from fossil fuel combustion (66±16%), consistent with Chinese sources. The fossil fuel contributions to BC in the snowpits of the inner TP are lower (30±10%), implying contributions from internal Tibetan sources (for example, yak dung combustion). Constraints on BC sources facilitate improved modelling of climatic patterns, hydrological effects and provide guidance for effective mitigation actions.

Abstract We reconstruct the rise of a segment of the southern flank of the Himalaya-Tibet orogen, to the south of the Lhasa terrane, using a paleoaltimeter based on paleoenthalpy encoded in fossil leaves from two new assemblages in southern Tibet (Liuqu and Qiabulin) and four previously known floras from the Himalaya foreland basin. U-Pb dating of zircons constrains the Liuqu flora to the latest Paleocene (ca. 56 Ma) and the Qiabulin flora to the earliest Miocene (21–19 Ma). The proto-Himalaya grew slowly against a high (∼4 km) proto–Tibetan Plateau from ∼1 km in the late Paleocene to ∼2.3 km at the beginning of the Miocene, and achieved at least ∼5.5 km by ca. 15 Ma. Contrasting precipitation patterns between the Himalaya-Tibet edifice and the Himalaya foreland basin for the past ∼56 m.y. show progressive drying across southern Tibet, seemingly linked to the uplift of the Himalaya orogen.

Abstract The Tibetan Plateau (TP), the highest and largest plateau in the world, with complex and competing cryospheric‐hydrologic‐geodynamic processes, is particularly sensitive to anthropogenic warming. The quantitative water mass budget in the TP is poorly known. Here we examine annual changes in lake area, level, and volume during 1970s–2015. We find that a complex pattern of lake volume changes during 1970s–2015: a slight decrease of −2.78 Gt yr −1 during 1970s–1995, followed by a rapid increase of 12.53 Gt yr −1 during 1996–2010, and then a recent deceleration (1.46 Gt yr −1 ) during 2011–2015. We then estimated the recent water mass budget for the Inner TP, 2003–2009, including changes in terrestrial water storage, lake volume, glacier mass, snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture, and permafrost. The dominant components of water mass budget, namely, changes in lake volume (7.72 ± 0.63 Gt yr −1 ) and groundwater storage (5.01 ± 1.59 Gt yr −1 ), increased at similar rates. We find that increased net precipitation contributes the majority of water supply (74%) for the lake volume increase, followed by glacier mass loss (13%), and ground ice melt due to permafrost degradation (12%). Other term such as SWE (1%) makes a relatively small contribution. These results suggest that the hydrologic cycle in the TP has intensified remarkably during recent decades.