Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research

Significance Agricultural production is vulnerable to climate change. Understanding climate change, especially the temperature impacts, is critical if policymakers, agriculturalists, and crop breeders are to ensure global food security. Our study, by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods, shows that independent methods consistently estimated negative temperature impacts on yields of four major crops at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops, with important implications for developing crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure future food supply of an increasing world population.

Our growing awareness of the microbial world's importance and diversity contrasts starkly with our limited understanding of its fundamental structure. Despite recent advances in DNA sequencing, a lack of standardized protocols and common analytical frameworks impedes comparisons among studies, hindering the development of global inferences about microbial life on Earth. Here we present a meta-analysis of microbial community samples collected by hundreds of researchers for the Earth Microbiome Project. Coordinated protocols and new analytical methods, particularly the use of exact sequences instead of clustered operational taxonomic units, enable bacterial and archaeal ribosomal RNA gene sequences to be followed across multiple studies and allow us to explore patterns of diversity at an unprecedented scale. The result is both a reference database giving global context to DNA sequence data and a framework for incorporating data from future studies, fostering increasingly complete characterization of Earth's microbial diversity.

Plant phenology, the annually recurring sequence of plant developmental stages, is important for plant functioning and ecosystem services and their biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. Plant phenology depends on temperature, and the current rapid climate change has revived interest in understanding and modeling the responses of plant phenology to the warming trend and the consequences thereof for ecosystems. Here, we review recent progresses in plant phenology and its interactions with climate change. Focusing on the start (leaf unfolding) and end (leaf coloring) of plant growing seasons, we show that the recent rapid expansion in ground- and remote sensing- based phenology data acquisition has been highly beneficial and has supported major advances in plant phenology research. Studies using multiple data sources and methods generally agree on the trends of advanced leaf unfolding and delayed leaf coloring due to climate change, yet these trends appear to have decelerated or even reversed in recent years. Our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the plant phenology responses to climate warming is still limited. The interactions between multiple drivers complicate the modeling and prediction of plant phenology changes. Furthermore, changes in plant phenology have important implications for ecosystem carbon cycles and ecosystem feedbacks to climate, yet the quantification of such impacts remains challenging. We suggest that future studies should primarily focus on using new observation tools to improve the understanding of tropical plant phenology, on improving process-based phenology modeling, and on the scaling of phenology from species to landscape-level.

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions andtheir redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biospherein a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carboncycle, support the development of climate policies, and project futureclimate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies toquantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and theiruncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energystatistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change(ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use changedata and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measureddirectly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annualchanges in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimatedwith global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-baseddata products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated withdynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance(BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and theestimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is ameasure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carboncycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, withfossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission(including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1(40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with aBIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low orsinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest anincrease in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %)globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, morethan 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the meanand trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistentlyestimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadalvariability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multipleapproaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in theestimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between thedifferent methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northernextratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on thestrength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data updatedocuments changes in the methods and data sets used in this new globalcarbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cyclecompared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented inthis work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

The China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD) is the first high spatial-temporal resolution gridded near-surface meteorological dataset developed specifically for studies of land surface processes in China. The dataset was made through fusion of remote sensing products, reanalysis datasets and in-situ station data. Its record begins in January 1979 and is ongoing (currently up to December 2018) with a temporal resolution of three hours and a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Seven near-surface meteorological elements are provided in the CMFD, including 2-meter air temperature, surface pressure, and specific humidity, 10-meter wind speed, downward shortwave radiation, downward longwave radiation and precipitation rate. Validations against observations measured at independent stations show that the CMFD is of superior quality than the GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System); this is because a larger number of stations are used to generate the CMFD than are utilised in the GLDAS. Due to its continuous temporal coverage and consistent quality, the CMFD is one of the most widely-used climate datasets for China.

Urban heat island is among the most evident aspects of human impacts on the earth system. Here we assess the diurnal and seasonal variation of surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) defined as the surface temperature difference between urban area and suburban area measured from the MODIS. Differences in SUHII are analyzed across 419 global big cities, and we assess several potential biophysical and socio-economic driving factors. Across the big cities, we show that the average annual daytime SUHII (1.5 ± 1.2 °C) is higher than the annual nighttime SUHII (1.1 ± 0.5 °C) (P < 0.001). But no correlation is found between daytime and nighttime SUHII across big cities (P = 0.84), suggesting different driving mechanisms between day and night. The distribution of nighttime SUHII correlates positively with the difference in albedo and nighttime light between urban area and suburban area, while the distribution of daytime SUHII correlates negatively across cities with the difference of vegetation cover and activity between urban and suburban areas. Our results emphasize the key role of vegetation feedbacks in attenuating SUHII of big cities during the day, in particular during the growing season, further highlighting that increasing urban vegetation cover could be one effective way to mitigate the urban heat island effect.

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), with an average elevation of over 4000 m asl and an area of approximately 2.5 × 106 km2, is the highest and most extensive highland in the world and has been called the 'Third Pole'. The TP exerts a huge influence on regional and global climate through thermal and mechanical forcing mechanisms. Because the TP has the largest cryospheric extent outside the polar region and is the source region of all the large rivers in Asia, it is widely recognized to be the driving force for both regional environmental change and amplification of environmental changes on a global scale. Within China it is recognized as the 'Asian water tower'. In this letter, we summarize the recent changes observed in climate elements and cryospheric indicators on the plateau before discussing current unresolved issues concerning climate change in the TP, including the temporal and spatial components of this change, and the consistency of change as represented by different data sources. Based on meteorological station data, reanalyses and remote sensing, the TP has shown significant warming during the last decades and will continue to warm in the future. While the warming is predominantly caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions, changes in cloud amount, snow-albedo feedback, the Asian brown clouds and land use changes also partly contribute. The cryosphere in the TP is undergoing rapid change, including glacier retreat, inconsistent snow cover change, increasing permafrost temperatures and degradation, and thickening of the active layer. Hydrological processes impacted by glacial retreat have received much attention in recent years. Future attention should be paid to additional perspectives on climate change in the TP, such as the variations of climate extremes, the reliability of reanalyses and more detailed comparisons of reanalyses with surface observations. Spatial issues include the identification of whether an elevational dependency and weekend effect exist, and the identification of spatial contrasts in temperature change, along with their causes. These issues are uncertain because of a lack of reliable data above 5000 m asl.

Abstract The Third Pole (TP) is experiencing rapid warming and is currently in its warmest period in the past 2,000 years. This paper reviews the latest development in multidisciplinary TP research associated with this warming. The rapid warming facilitates intense and broad glacier melt over most of the TP, although some glaciers in the northwest are advancing. By heating the atmosphere and reducing snow/ice albedo, aerosols also contribute to the glaciers melting. Glacier melt is accompanied by lake expansion and intensification of the water cycle over the TP. Precipitation has increased over the eastern and northwestern TP. Meanwhile, the TP is greening and most regions are experiencing advancing phenological trends, although over the southwest there is a spring phenological delay mainly in response to the recent decline in spring precipitation. Atmospheric and terrestrial thermal and dynamical processes over the TP affect the Asian monsoon at different scales. Recent evidence indicates substantial roles that mesoscale convective systems play in the TP’s precipitation as well as an association between soil moisture anomalies in the TP and the Indian monsoon. Moreover, an increase in geohazard events has been associated with recent environmental changes, some of which have had catastrophic consequences caused by glacial lake outbursts and landslides. Active debris flows are growing in both frequency of occurrences and spatial scale. Meanwhile, new types of disasters, such as the twin ice avalanches in Ali in 2016, are now appearing in the region. Adaptation and mitigation measures should be taken to help societies’ preparation for future environmental challenges. Some key issues for future TP studies are also discussed.

Research Article| July 01, 2007 Geological records of the Lhasa-Qiangtang and Indo-Asian collisions in the Nima area of central Tibet Paul Kapp; Paul Kapp 1Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721–0077, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Peter G. DeCelles; Peter G. DeCelles 1Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721–0077, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar George E. Gehrels; George E. Gehrels 1Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721–0077, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Matthew Heizler; Matthew Heizler 2New Mexico Geochronological Research Laboratory, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, New Mexico 87801, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Lin Ding Lin Ding 3Institutes of Tibetan Plateau Research and Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, People's Republic of China Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Paul Kapp 1Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721–0077, USA Peter G. DeCelles 1Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721–0077, USA George E. Gehrels 1Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721–0077, USA Matthew Heizler 2New Mexico Geochronological Research Laboratory, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, New Mexico 87801, USA Lin Ding 3Institutes of Tibetan Plateau Research and Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, People's Republic of China Publisher: Geological Society of America Received: 04 May 2006 Revision Received: 18 Dec 2006 Accepted: 19 Jan 2007 First Online: 08 Mar 2017 Online ISSN: 1943-2674 Print ISSN: 0016-7606 Geological Society of America GSA Bulletin (2007) 119 (7-8): 917–933. https://doi.org/10.1130/B26033.1 Article history Received: 04 May 2006 Revision Received: 18 Dec 2006 Accepted: 19 Jan 2007 First Online: 08 Mar 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email Permissions Search Site Citation Paul Kapp, Peter G. DeCelles, George E. Gehrels, Matthew Heizler, Lin Ding; Geological records of the Lhasa-Qiangtang and Indo-Asian collisions in the Nima area of central Tibet. GSA Bulletin 2007;; 119 (7-8): 917–933. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/B26033.1 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyGSA Bulletin Search Advanced Search Abstract A geological and geochronologic investigation of the Nima area along the Jurassic–Early Cretaceous Bangong suture of central Tibet (∼32°N, ∼87°E) provides well-dated records of contractional deformation and sedimentation during mid-Cretaceous and mid-Tertiary time. Jurassic to Lower Cretaceous (≤125 Ma) marine sedimentary rocks were transposed, intruded by granitoids, and uplifted above sea level by ca. 118 Ma, the age of the oldest nonmarine strata documented. Younger nonmarine Cretaceous rocks include ca. 110–106 Ma volcanic-bearing strata and Cenomanian red beds and conglomerates. The Jurassic–Cretaceous rocks are unconformably overlain by up to 4000 m of Upper Oligocene to Lower Miocene lacustrine, nearshore lacustrine, and fluvial red-bed deposits. Paleocurrent directions, growth stratal relationships, and a structural restoration of the basin show that Cretaceous–Tertiary nonmarine deposition was coeval with mainly S-directed thrusting in the northern part of the Nima area and N-directed thrusting along the southern margin of the basin. The structural restoration suggests >58 km (>47%) of N–S shortening following Early Cretaceous ocean closure and ∼25 km shortening (∼28%) of Nima basin strata since 26 Ma. Cretaceous magmatism and syncontractional basin development are attributed to northward low-angle subduction of the Neotethyan oceanic lithosphere and Lhasa-Qiangtang continental collision, respectively. Tertiary syncontractional basin development in the Nima area was coeval with that along the Bangong suture in westernmost Tibet and the Indus-Yarlung suture in southern Tibet, suggesting simultaneous, renewed contraction along these sutures during the Oligocene-Miocene. This suture-zone reactivation immediately predated major displacement within the Himalayan Main Central thrust system shear zone, raising the possibility that Tertiary shortening in Tibet and the Himalayas may be interpretable in the context of a mechanically linked, composite orogenic system. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.

Long-term global data sets of vegetation Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) are critical to monitoring global vegetation dynamics and for modeling exchanges of energy, mass and momentum between the land surface and planetary boundary layer. LAI and FPAR are also state variables in hydrological, ecological, biogeochemical and crop-yield models. The generation, evaluation and an example case study documenting the utility of 30-year long data sets of LAI and FPAR are described in this article. A neural network algorithm was first developed between the new improved third generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI3g) and best-quality Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI and FPAR products for the overlapping period 2000–2009. The trained neural network algorithm was then used to generate corresponding LAI3g and FPAR3g data sets with the following attributes: 15-day temporal frequency, 1/12 degree spatial resolution and temporal span of July 1981 to December 2011. The quality of these data sets for scientific research in other disciplines was assessed through (a) comparisons with field measurements scaled to the spatial resolution of the data products, (b) comparisons with broadly-used existing alternate satellite data-based products, (c) comparisons to plant growth limiting climatic variables in the northern latitudes and tropical regions, and (d) correlations of dominant modes of interannual variability with large-scale circulation anomalies such as the EI Niño-Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation. These assessment efforts yielded results that attested to the suitability of these data sets for research use in other disciplines. The utility of these data sets is documented by comparing the seasonal profiles of LAI3g with profiles from 18 state-of-the-art Earth System Models: the models consistently overestimated the satellite-based estimates of leaf area and simulated delayed peak seasonal values in the northern latitudes, a result that is consistent with previous evaluations of similar models with ground-based data. The LAI3g and FPAR3g data sets can be obtained freely from the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) website.

With a pace of about twice the observed rate of global warming, the temperature on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (Earth's 'third pole') has increased by 0.2 °C per decade over the past 50 years, which results in significant permafrost thawing and glacier retreat. Our review suggested that warming enhanced net primary production and soil respiration, decreased methane (CH(4)) emissions from wetlands and increased CH(4) consumption of meadows, but might increase CH(4) emissions from lakes. Warming-induced permafrost thawing and glaciers melting would also result in substantial emission of old carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and CH(4). Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emission was not stimulated by warming itself, but might be slightly enhanced by wetting. However, there are many uncertainties in such biogeochemical cycles under climate change. Human activities (e.g. grazing, land cover changes) further modified the biogeochemical cycles and amplified such uncertainties on the plateau. If the projected warming and wetting continues, the future biogeochemical cycles will be more complicated. So facing research in this field is an ongoing challenge of integrating field observations with process-based ecosystem models to predict the impacts of future climate change and human activities at various temporal and spatial scales. To reduce the uncertainties and to improve the precision of the predictions of the impacts of climate change and human activities on biogeochemical cycles, efforts should focus on conducting more field observation studies, integrating data within improved models, and developing new knowledge about coupling among carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus biogeochemical cycles as well as about the role of microbes in these cycles.

Abstract The stable oxygen isotope ratio (δ 18 O) in precipitation is an integrated tracer of atmospheric processes worldwide. Since the 1990s, an intensive effort has been dedicated to studying precipitation isotopic composition at more than 20 stations in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) located at the convergence of air masses between the westerlies and Indian monsoon. In this paper, we establish a database of precipitation δ 18 O and use different models to evaluate the climatic controls of precipitation δ 18 O over the TP. The spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation δ 18 O and their relationships with temperature and precipitation reveal three distinct domains, respectively associated with the influence of the westerlies (northern TP), Indian monsoon (southern TP), and transition in between. Precipitation δ 18 O in the monsoon domain experiences an abrupt decrease in May and most depletion in August, attributable to the shifting moisture origin between Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Indian Ocean. High‐resolution atmospheric models capture the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation δ 18 O and their relationships with moisture transport from the westerlies and Indian monsoon. Only in the westerlies domain are atmospheric models able to represent the relationships between climate and precipitation δ 18 O. More significant temperature effect exists when either the westerlies or Indian monsoon is the sole dominant atmospheric process. The observed and simulated altitude‐δ 18 O relationships strongly depend on the season and the domain (Indian monsoon or westerlies). Our results have crucial implications for the interpretation of paleoclimate records and for the application of atmospheric simulations to quantifying paleoclimate and paleo‐elevation changes.

The reliable detection and attribution of changes in vegetation growth is a prerequisite for the development of strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This is an extraordinary challenge. To our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively detect and attribute a greening trend in China over the last three decades. We use three different satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) datasets for detection as well as five different process-based ecosystem models for attribution. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition are identified as the most likely causes of the greening trend in China, explaining 85% and 41% of the average growing-season LAI trend (LAIGS) estimated by satellite datasets (average trend of 0.0070 yr(-1), ranging from 0.0035 yr(-1) to 0.0127 yr(-1)), respectively. The contribution of nitrogen deposition is more clearly seen in southern China than in the north of the country. Models disagree about the contribution of climate change alone to the trend in LAIGS at the country scale (one model shows a significant increasing trend, whereas two others show significant decreasing trends). However, the models generally agree on the negative impacts of climate change in north China and Inner Mongolia and the positive impact in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Provincial forest area change tends to be significantly correlated with the trend of LAIGS (P < 0.05), and marginally significantly (P = 0.07) correlated with the residual of LAIGS trend, calculated as the trend observed by satellite minus that estimated by models through considering the effects of climate change, rising CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, across different provinces. This result highlights the important role of China's afforestation program in explaining the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth.

Detrital zircon data have recently become available from many different portions of the Tibetan–Himalayan orogen. This study uses 13,441 new or existing U‐Pb ages of zircon crystals from strata in the Lesser Himalayan, Greater Himalayan, and Tethyan sequences in the Himalaya, the Lhasa, Qiangtang, and Nan Shan–Qilian Shan–Altun Shan terranes in Tibet, and platformal strata of the Tarim craton to constrain changes in provenance through time. These constraints provide information about the paleogeographic and tectonic evolution of the Tibet–Himalaya region during Neoproterozoic to Mesozoic time. First‐order conclusions are as follows: (1) Most ages from these crustal fragments are &lt;1.4 Ga, which suggests formation in accretionary orogens involving little pre‐mid‐Proterozoic cratonal material; (2) all fragments south of the Jinsa suture evolved along the northern margin of India as part of a circum‐Gondwana convergent margin system; (3) these Gondwana‐margin assemblages were blanketed by glaciogenic sediment during Carboniferous–Permian time; (4) terranes north of the Jinsa suture formed along the southern margin of the Tarim–North China craton; (5) the northern (Tarim–North China) terranes and Gondwana‐margin assemblages may have been juxtaposed during mid‐Paleozoic time, followed by rifting that formed the Paleo‐Tethys and Meso‐Tethys ocean basins; (6) the abundance of Permian–Triassic arc‐derived detritus in the Lhasa and Qiangtang terranes is interpreted to record their northward migration across the Paleo‐ and Meso‐Tethys ocean basins; and (7) the arrival of India juxtaposed the Tethyan assemblage on its northern margin against the Lhasa terrane, and is the latest in a long history of collisional tectonism.

The geologic map pattern of the Qiangtang terrane in central Tibet defines a &gt;600-km-long and up to 270-km-wide east-plunging structural culmination. It is characterized by early Mesozoic blueschist-bearing mélange and upper Paleozoic strata in the core

Abstract This paper attempts to provide some new understanding of the mechanical as well as thermal effects of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) on the circulation and climate in Asia through diagnosis and numerical experiments. The air column over the TP descends in winter and ascends in summer and regulates the surface Asian monsoon flow. Sensible heating on the sloping lateral surfaces appears from the authors’ experiments to be the major driving source. The retarding and deflecting effects of the TP in winter generate an asymmetric dipole zonal-deviation circulation, with a large anticyclone gyre to the north and a cyclonic gyre to the south. Such a dipole deviation circulation enhances the cold outbreaks from the north over East Asia, results in a dry climate in south Asia and a moist climate over the Indochina peninsula and south China, and forms the persistent rainfall in early spring (PRES) in south China. In summer the TP heating generates a cyclonic spiral zonal-deviation circulation in the lower troposphere, which converges toward and rises over the TP. It is shown that because the TP is located east of the Eurasian continent, in summertime the meridional winds and vertical motions forced by the Eurasian continental-scale heating and the TP local heating are in phase over the eastern and central parts of the continent. The monsoon in East Asia and the dry climate in middle Asia are therefore intensified.

China has the largest afforested area in the world (∼62 million hectares in 2008), and these forests are carbon sinks. The climatic effect of these new forests depends on how radiant and turbulent energy fluxes over these plantations modify surface temperature. For instance, a lower albedo may cause warming, which negates the climatic benefits of carbon sequestration. Here, we used satellite measurements of land surface temperature (LST) from planted forests and adjacent grasslands or croplands in China to understand how afforestation affects LST. Afforestation is found to decrease daytime LST by about 1.1 ± 0.5 °C (mean ± 1 SD) and to increase nighttime LST by about 0.2 ± 0.5 °C, on average. The observed daytime cooling is a result of increased evapotranspiration. The nighttime warming is found to increase with latitude and decrease with average rainfall. Afforestation in dry regions therefore leads to net warming, as daytime cooling is offset by nighttime warming. Thus, it is necessary to carefully consider where to plant trees to realize potential climatic benefits in future afforestation projects.

We find evidence that black soot aerosols deposited on Tibetan glaciers have been a significant contributing factor to observed rapid glacier retreat. Reduced black soot emissions, in addition to reduced greenhouse gases, may be required to avoid demise of Himalayan glaciers and retain the benefits of glaciers for seasonal fresh water supplies.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate 10 process-based terrestrial biosphere models that were used for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is compared with flux-tower-based estimates by Jung et al. [Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011) G00J07] (JU11). The net primary productivity (NPP) apparent sensitivity to climate variability and atmospheric CO2 trends is diagnosed from each model output, using statistical functions. The temperature sensitivity is compared against ecosystem field warming experiments results. The CO2 sensitivity of NPP is compared to the results from four Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The simulated global net biome productivity (NBP) is compared with the residual land sink (RLS) of the global carbon budget from Friedlingstein et al. [Nature Geoscience 3 (2010) 811] (FR10). We found that models produce a higher GPP (133 ± 15 Pg C yr(-1) ) than JU11 (118 ± 6 Pg C yr(-1) ). In response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, modeled NPP increases on average by 16% (5-20%) per 100 ppm, a slightly larger apparent sensitivity of NPP to CO2 than that measured at the FACE experiment locations (13% per 100 ppm). Global NBP differs markedly among individual models, although the mean value of 2.0 ± 0.8 Pg C yr(-1) is remarkably close to the mean value of RLS (2.1 ± 1.2 Pg C yr(-1) ). The interannual variability in modeled NBP is significantly correlated with that of RLS for the period 1980-2009. Both model-to-model and interannual variation in model GPP is larger than that in model NBP due to the strong coupling causing a positive correlation between ecosystem respiration and GPP in the model. The average linear regression slope of global NBP vs. temperature across the 10 models is -3.0 ± 1.5 Pg C yr(-1) °C(-1) , within the uncertainty of what derived from RLS (-3.9 ± 1.1 Pg C yr(-1) °C(-1) ). However, 9 of 10 models overestimate the regression slope of NBP vs. precipitation, compared with the slope of the observed RLS vs. precipitation. With most models lacking processes that control GPP and NBP in addition to CO2 and climate, the agreement between modeled and observation-based GPP and NBP can be fortuitous. Carbon-nitrogen interactions (only separable in one model) significantly influence the simulated response of carbon cycle to temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration, suggesting that nutrients limitations should be included in the next generation of terrestrial biosphere models.

Abstract Great advances have been made in the last decade in quantifying and understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) with ground, atmospheric, and space observations. However, although global GPP estimates exist, each data set relies upon assumptions and none of the available data are based only on measurements. Consequently, there is no consensus on the global total GPP and large uncertainties exist in its benchmarking. The objective of this review is to assess how the different available data sets predict the spatiotemporal patterns of GPP, identify the differences among data sets, and highlight the main advantages/disadvantages of each data set. We compare GPP estimates for the historical period (1990–2009) from two observation‐based data sets (Model Tree Ensemble and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) to coupled carbon‐climate models and terrestrial carbon cycle models from the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project and TRENDY projects and to a new hybrid data set (CARBONES). Results show a large range in the mean global GPP estimates. The different data sets broadly agree on GPP seasonal cycle in terms of phasing, while there is still discrepancy on the amplitude. For interannual variability (IAV) and trends, there is a clear separation between the observation‐based data that show little IAV and trend, while the process‐based models have large GPP variability and significant trends. These results suggest that there is an urgent need to improve observation‐based data sets and develop carbon cycle modeling with processes that are currently treated either very simplistically to correctly estimate present GPP and better quantify the future uptake of carbon dioxide by the world's vegetation.