Defense Intelligence Agency

A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was generally lowest for high incidence seasons, those for which forecasts would be most valuable. A comparison of modeling approaches revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts. Leveraging these insights, data, and the forecasting framework will be critical to improve forecast skill and the application of forecasts in real time for epidemic preparedness and response. Moreover, key components of this project-integration with public health needs, a common forecasting framework, shared and standardized data, and open participation-can help advance infectious disease forecasting beyond dengue.

The discovery of many cases of wrongful conviction in the criminal justice system involving admissions from innocent suspects has led psychologists to examine the factors contributing to false confessions. However, little systematic research has assessed the processes underlying Human Intelligence (HUMINT) interrogations relating to military and intelligence operations. The current article examines the similarities and differences between interrogations in criminal and HUMINT settings, and discusses the extent to which the current empirical literature can be applied to criminal and/or HUMINT interrogations. Finally, areas of future research are considered in light of the need for improving HUMINT interrogation.

Advances in biological research likely will permit development of a new class of advanced biological warfare (ABW) agents engineered to elicit novel effects. In addition, biotechnology will have applications supporting ABW weaponization, dissemination, and delivery. Such new agents and delivery systems would provide a variety of new use options, expanding the BW paradigm. Although ABW agents will not replace threats posed by traditional biological agents such as Bacillus anthracis (anthrax) and Variola (smallpox), they will necessitate novel approaches to counterproliferation, detection, medical countermeasures, and attribution.

Critical loads and the corresponding reactions, maximum moments, and crown deflections of two-hinged and fixed, parabolic and circular arches of constant cross section subjected either to a vertical concentrated load at the crown or a vertical load uniformly distributed along the arch axis are tabulated for a wide range of rise/span ratios. It is shown that the critical loads and the corresponding horizontal reactions for antisymmetrical (sidesway) modes are rather insensitive to the prebuckling displacements while the opposite is true for the symmetrical models. The antisymmetrical mode corresponds to a bifurcation type instability while the symmetrical mode corresponds to a snap-through type of buckling. The data are analyzed and simplified methods for estimating the critical loads and the critical horizontal reactions, or both, are suggested for antisymmetrical buckling. In addition to the solutions described previously, accurate values of the critical loads and horizontal reactions are reported for antisymmetrical buckling of two-hinged and fixed, parabolic and catenary arches subjected to loadings which cause pure axial compression and no prebuckling displacements.

(2003). China's Use of Perception Management. International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence: Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 1-15.

Abstract This article describes an ethical and effective science‐based model of interviewing. An initial planning phase assists the investigative team in separating facts from inferences, decreases the likelihood of errors based on cognitive biases, and prompts careful preparation of the environment. The interview begins with an explanation of why the subject is being questioned. The interviewer then metaphorically hands the interview over to the subject, making him the talker and the interviewer the listener. The interviewer engages in active listening, soliciting as much information from the subject as possible by deploying tactics that enhance memory based on science, including elements of the cognitive interview. Cues to deception are found in the details of the story, rather than in signs of anxiety or nonverbal behaviours, and by deploying Strategic Use of Evidence. This model has been shown to increase cooperation, decrease resistance, and provoke useful information in real‐world criminal interviews.

In light of the cost and complexity of Plan Colombia, this essay makes two central arguments. First, despite receiving $6.1 billion in assistance from Washington from 2000–2008, Plan Colombia has not been a particularly cost-effective framework for the United States. And second, because drug interdiction and crop eradication programs—the centerpiece of US funding—have not achieved all the desired results based on cocaine production trends, there is a need to rethink current funding priorities. If the history of bilateral cooperation in the war on drugs is any guide, the emphasis on “hard-side” elements (e.g., drug control) in dealing with the cocaine phenomenon will endure. This has important policy implications. Although the United States and Colombia agree on the desired ends for Plan Colombia, Washington's pursuit of certain objectives at the expense of others, or the improper synchronization of policy instruments, may actually hinder the sustainment of hard-fought achievements.

(1984). Modernisation and ethnic Equalisation in the USSR. Soviet Studies: Vol. 36, No. 2, pp. 159-184.

Using Iraq and Afghanistan as case studies, this article explores several critical questions. First, what is the scope of the relationship among criminal organizations, terrorists, and insurgents? The analysis is drawn from theoretical approaches but also relies on government studies and open source reports. Second, how has the transitional period between post-conflict and reconstruction/nation-building created fertile ground for strengthening the criminal–terrorist–insurgent continuum? This is a particularly important issue as the Bush administration engages international organizations. Lastly, what can the United States and its Coalition allies do to mitigate the security challenges presented by the criminal–terrorist–insurgent problem in the these two countries?

For a sample of 71 full-time students attending a large community college in the San Francisco Bay area, the objective of this investigation was to examine the degree of relationship between GPA earned during one academic quarter and: (a) an ability measure defined as scores on the composite of four academic tests in the ACT Assessment (American College Testing Program, 1959–1980) or scores on the College Board Scholastic Aptitude Test (Educational Testing Service, 1948–1980) that had been converted to scores on the academic composite of the ACT Assessment; (b) standing on an expectancy measure defined as a student's anticipated GPA; (c) scores on each of six measures representing a valence construct that indicates the relative desirability of long-range student goals; (d) scores on each of six measures portraying an instrumentality construct reflecting the facilitative effect of college grades (a short-term goal) as perceived by students in realizing long-term goals (such as vocational success or enduring friendships); and (e) an unweighted linear combination of a scholastic aptitude test score and placement on a contrived motivational construct constituting a multiplicative function of the expectancy, valence and instrumentality constructs consistent with Vroom's (1964, 1965) conceptualization. Ability and expectancy measures were found to be useful in predicting academic performance of community college students. The valence and instrumentality constructs contributed little, if any, validity to prediction of academic performance.

Recommendations for prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination have focused on the elderly at higher risk for severe disease. Existing models for identifying higher-risk individuals lack the needed integration of socio-demographic and clinical risk factors. Using multivariate logistic regression and random forest modeling, we developed a predictive model of severe COVID-19 using clinical data from Medicare claims for 16 million Medicare beneficiaries and socio-economic data from the CDC Social Vulnerability Index. Predicted individual probabilities of COVID-19 hospitalization were then calculated for population risk stratification and vaccine prioritization and mapping. The leading COVID-19 hospitalization risk factors were non-white ethnicity, end-stage renal disease, advanced age, prior hospitalization, leukemia, morbid obesity, chronic kidney disease, lung cancer, chronic liver disease, pulmonary fibrosis or pulmonary hypertension, and chemotherapy. However, previously reported risk factors such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes conferred modest hospitalization risk. Among all social vulnerability factors, residence in a low-income zip code was the only risk factor independently predicting hospitalization. This multifactor risk model and its population risk dashboard can be used to optimize COVID-19 vaccine allocation in the higher-risk Medicare population.

Covers advancements in spacecraft and tactical and strategic missile systems, including subsystem design and application, mission design and analysis, materials and structures, developments in space sciences, space processing and manufacturing, space operations, and applications of space technologies to other fields.

This article describes a major output of strategic intelligence: conceptual frameworks. Drawing on concepts from epistemology, ontology, and analytical methodology, it finds a philosophical foundation for conceptual frameworks in pragmatism and the ideas of Wittgenstein. Through the production and use of conceptual frameworks, strategic intelligence is revealed as both art and science, performing both creation and discovery. The use of such frameworks enables strategic intelligence to notice shifts as they begin to emerge. The article highlights Israeli theoretical perspectives, illustrates the practical utility of conceptual frameworks by applying them to Israeli cases, and suggests that using them contributes to strategy.

The chapter deals with the mathematical model for planning the optimal movement route, which has been implemented in the Tactical Decision Support System (TDSS). The model processes and evaluates the data contained in the five raster layers, which are tactically relevant for planning the movement route of troops or autonomous vehicles on the battlefield. The basis for calculating the optimal movement route is a ground surface layer, which is then modified by algorithmic and criterion relationships with the layers of hypsometry, weather attack, and the activities of enemy and friendly units. The result of mathematical model calculations is a time-optimized and safe movement route displayed on the topographic basis. The experiments realized have verified the function of the optimal movement route model when neither the reconnaissance group nor the autonomous vehicle was observed by the enemy. The total time of the UGV with the use of the TDSS to cover the route of maneuver was 67 minutes shorter than the real time of the BRAVO group movement with the use of the TDSS and 105 minutes shorter than the real time of the ALFA group without the use of the TDSS. The comparison of responses to the attack shows that the BRAVO group using the Maneuver Control System (MCS CZ) as part of the TDSS has destroyed the attackers faster by 71 seconds than the ALFA group without the use of the TDSS.

Active systems, because they provide their own illumination, are capable of operating 24 hours a day and are not dependent upon the angle of the sun. Unlike passive systems, they can provide three-dimensional imaging. DARPA is currently developing systems, technologies, and signal processing to pioneer new or improve existing capabilities that employ active imaging capabilities. These involve both radar and ladar, ranging from a few MHz for foliage penetration to near-visible IR to achieve ultra-high resolution at long range. These capabilities would improve Battlefield Awareness (BA) and provide persistent Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) to perform target detection, recognition, and identification. This paper discusses two different approaches to active optical imaging. One is a coherent approach that uses synthetic aperture techniques with infrared laser radar, and another approach uses only the intensity of the speckle pattern in the aperture plane. Both are capable of producing ultra-high resolution at long range.

The Global Strategic Partnership, a research consortium led by RAND, was commissioned by the UK Ministry of Defence to support the development of a concept of Multi-Domain Integration enabling the UK to maintain advantage by exploiting the integration of activities across domains. In particular, the study aimed to investigate the nature, extent and drivers of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea's own evolving thinking on multi-domain integration.

A multistage analysis routine for prediction of metal matrix composite strength and life has been developed. It uses micromechanics to predict material stresses, strains, and crack initiation under load. It uses macromechanics for load redistributions caused by geometry, local failures, and crack growth. This routine can be used to predict lamina and laminate stiffnesses, stresses about a notch and through the net section, laminate strength (notched or unnotched), crack initiation lives, crack growth, and residual strength. The routine is user-friendly and emphasizes rapid analysis techniques, which allow the program to be run interactively. The purpose of this routine is to provide quick and accurate strength and life predictions for metal matrix composites based on limited test data.

Results of the second meeting of a panel of distinguished specialists who review annually Soviet economic performance are presented in the form of proceedings interwoven with tabular material, references, and occasional abstracts. Because of serious inconsistences and discrepancies in official Soviet statistical data for the year 1986, a debate on the quality of Soviet economic statistics is included in the review of performance. PlanEcon estimates are compared with those of the CIA. Also discussed are perspectives on agriculture and industry and prospects for 1987. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 221.

Exposure to modernizing institutions such as the school, factory, and city has been found to be associated with the breakdown in traditional values, beliefs, and behaviors in a wide variety of cultural settings. Socioeconomic change has had a similar impact on the late-modernizing Islamic minorities in the USSR. Although patriarchal attitudes and behaviors have persisted in some areas of family life, extensive shifts in family values and approved gender roles have occurred, particularly in the last two decades. These trends parallel those found in nonsocialist settings.

This book is the first comprehensive study of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI). The rise of Pakistan-backed religious extremist groups in Afghanistan, India, and Central Asia has focused international attention on Pakistan’s premier intelligence organization and covert action advocate, the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate or ISI. While ISI is regarded as one of the most powerful government agencies in Pakistan today, surprisingly little has been written about it from an academic perspective. This book addresses critical gaps in our understanding of this agency, including its domestic security mission, covert backing of the Afghan Taliban, and its links to al-Qa’ida. Using primary source materials, including declassified intelligence and diplomatic reporting, press reports and memoirs, this book explores how ISI was transformed from a small, negligible counter intelligence outfit of the late-1940s into the national security behemoth of today with extensive responsibilities in domestic security, political interference and covert action. This study concludes that reforming or even eliminating ISI will be fundamental if Pakistan is to successfully transition from an army-run, national security state to a stable, democratic society that enjoys peaceful relations with its neighbours. This book will be of interest to students of intelligence studies, South Asian politics, foreign policy and international security in general.