Defense Intelligence Agency

A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was generally lowest for high incidence seasons, those for which forecasts would be most valuable. A comparison of modeling approaches revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts. Leveraging these insights, data, and the forecasting framework will be critical to improve forecast skill and the application of forecasts in real time for epidemic preparedness and response. Moreover, key components of this project-integration with public health needs, a common forecasting framework, shared and standardized data, and open participation-can help advance infectious disease forecasting beyond dengue.

The discovery of many cases of wrongful conviction in the criminal justice system involving admissions from innocent suspects has led psychologists to examine the factors contributing to false confessions. However, little systematic research has assessed the processes underlying Human Intelligence (HUMINT) interrogations relating to military and intelligence operations. The current article examines the similarities and differences between interrogations in criminal and HUMINT settings, and discusses the extent to which the current empirical literature can be applied to criminal and/or HUMINT interrogations. Finally, areas of future research are considered in light of the need for improving HUMINT interrogation.

Advances in biological research likely will permit development of a new class of advanced biological warfare (ABW) agents engineered to elicit novel effects. In addition, biotechnology will have applications supporting ABW weaponization, dissemination, and delivery. Such new agents and delivery systems would provide a variety of new use options, expanding the BW paradigm. Although ABW agents will not replace threats posed by traditional biological agents such as Bacillus anthracis (anthrax) and Variola (smallpox), they will necessitate novel approaches to counterproliferation, detection, medical countermeasures, and attribution.

Critical loads and the corresponding reactions, maximum moments, and crown deflections of two-hinged and fixed, parabolic and circular arches of constant cross section subjected either to a vertical concentrated load at the crown or a vertical load uniformly distributed along the arch axis are tabulated for a wide range of rise/span ratios. It is shown that the critical loads and the corresponding horizontal reactions for antisymmetrical (sidesway) modes are rather insensitive to the prebuckling displacements while the opposite is true for the symmetrical models. The antisymmetrical mode corresponds to a bifurcation type instability while the symmetrical mode corresponds to a snap-through type of buckling. The data are analyzed and simplified methods for estimating the critical loads and the critical horizontal reactions, or both, are suggested for antisymmetrical buckling. In addition to the solutions described previously, accurate values of the critical loads and horizontal reactions are reported for antisymmetrical buckling of two-hinged and fixed, parabolic and catenary arches subjected to loadings which cause pure axial compression and no prebuckling displacements.

A Inteligência Artificial – IA pode ser definida como o estudo de agentes computacionais inteligentes que recebem percepções do ambiente e executam ações, bem como tomam decisões autônomas. Na contemporaneidade, esse mecanismo é aplicado em diversos segmentos, desde o agronegócio até os serviços relacionados à saúde. Ademais, em consonância às recentes pesquisas, a utilização da IA, em nível mundial, cresce consideravelmente. Posto isto, este estudo se configura em natureza exploratória, com auxílio de pesquisa documental, a partir do acesso à base de dados de patentes inglesa Questel Orbit Intelligence. Nesse contexto, por meio da metodologia PRISMA, identificaram-se 87.959 patentes depositadas sobre o tema, em âmbito mundial, entre os anos 2003 e 2022. Ademais, há um crescimento acentuado de depósitos de patentes de IA a partir de 2015. Notou-se, também, a China como propulsora internacional no desenvolvimento dessa tecnologia, principal nação depositante. Diante disso, constatou-se que a publicação de patentes de IA acompanha o progresso exponencial de tal tecnologia, levando em consideração os aspectos de proteção de propriedade intelectual e de segurança jurídica, o que possibilita vantagens competitivas frente aos concorrentes, obtidas por intermédio do direito à concessão de patentes.

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Abstract This article describes an ethical and effective science‐based model of interviewing. An initial planning phase assists the investigative team in separating facts from inferences, decreases the likelihood of errors based on cognitive biases, and prompts careful preparation of the environment. The interview begins with an explanation of why the subject is being questioned. The interviewer then metaphorically hands the interview over to the subject, making him the talker and the interviewer the listener. The interviewer engages in active listening, soliciting as much information from the subject as possible by deploying tactics that enhance memory based on science, including elements of the cognitive interview. Cues to deception are found in the details of the story, rather than in signs of anxiety or nonverbal behaviours, and by deploying Strategic Use of Evidence. This model has been shown to increase cooperation, decrease resistance, and provoke useful information in real‐world criminal interviews.

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In light of the cost and complexity of Plan Colombia, this essay makes two central arguments. First, despite receiving $6.1 billion in assistance from Washington from 2000–2008, Plan Colombia has not been a particularly cost-effective framework for the United States. And second, because drug interdiction and crop eradication programs—the centerpiece of US funding—have not achieved all the desired results based on cocaine production trends, there is a need to rethink current funding priorities. If the history of bilateral cooperation in the war on drugs is any guide, the emphasis on “hard-side” elements (e.g., drug control) in dealing with the cocaine phenomenon will endure. This has important policy implications. Although the United States and Colombia agree on the desired ends for Plan Colombia, Washington's pursuit of certain objectives at the expense of others, or the improper synchronization of policy instruments, may actually hinder the sustainment of hard-fought achievements.

Using Iraq and Afghanistan as case studies, this article explores several critical questions. First, what is the scope of the relationship among criminal organizations, terrorists, and insurgents? The analysis is drawn from theoretical approaches but also relies on government studies and open source reports. Second, how has the transitional period between post-conflict and reconstruction/nation-building created fertile ground for strengthening the criminal–terrorist–insurgent continuum? This is a particularly important issue as the Bush administration engages international organizations. Lastly, what can the United States and its Coalition allies do to mitigate the security challenges presented by the criminal–terrorist–insurgent problem in the these two countries?

For a sample of 71 full-time students attending a large community college in the San Francisco Bay area, the objective of this investigation was to examine the degree of relationship between GPA earned during one academic quarter and: (a) an ability measure defined as scores on the composite of four academic tests in the ACT Assessment (American College Testing Program, 1959–1980) or scores on the College Board Scholastic Aptitude Test (Educational Testing Service, 1948–1980) that had been converted to scores on the academic composite of the ACT Assessment; (b) standing on an expectancy measure defined as a student's anticipated GPA; (c) scores on each of six measures representing a valence construct that indicates the relative desirability of long-range student goals; (d) scores on each of six measures portraying an instrumentality construct reflecting the facilitative effect of college grades (a short-term goal) as perceived by students in realizing long-term goals (such as vocational success or enduring friendships); and (e) an unweighted linear combination of a scholastic aptitude test score and placement on a contrived motivational construct constituting a multiplicative function of the expectancy, valence and instrumentality constructs consistent with Vroom's (1964, 1965) conceptualization. Ability and expectancy measures were found to be useful in predicting academic performance of community college students. The valence and instrumentality constructs contributed little, if any, validity to prediction of academic performance.

Recommendations for prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination have focused on the elderly at higher risk for severe disease. Existing models for identifying higher-risk individuals lack the needed integration of socio-demographic and clinical risk factors. Using multivariate logistic regression and random forest modeling, we developed a predictive model of severe COVID-19 using clinical data from Medicare claims for 16 million Medicare beneficiaries and socio-economic data from the CDC Social Vulnerability Index. Predicted individual probabilities of COVID-19 hospitalization were then calculated for population risk stratification and vaccine prioritization and mapping. The leading COVID-19 hospitalization risk factors were non-white ethnicity, end-stage renal disease, advanced age, prior hospitalization, leukemia, morbid obesity, chronic kidney disease, lung cancer, chronic liver disease, pulmonary fibrosis or pulmonary hypertension, and chemotherapy. However, previously reported risk factors such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes conferred modest hospitalization risk. Among all social vulnerability factors, residence in a low-income zip code was the only risk factor independently predicting hospitalization. This multifactor risk model and its population risk dashboard can be used to optimize COVID-19 vaccine allocation in the higher-risk Medicare population.

Covers advancements in spacecraft and tactical and strategic missile systems, including subsystem design and application, mission design and analysis, materials and structures, developments in space sciences, space processing and manufacturing, space operations, and applications of space technologies to other fields.

Com o intuito de contribuir para o aumento da eficiência e eficácia das unidades de inteligência competitiva (IC) no âmbito da gestão de pessoas, o presente trabalho teve como objetivo geral desenvolver um modelo para mapear conhecimentos, habilidades e atitudes de profissionais de IC, com vistas ao estabelecimento do processo de gestão de pessoas por competências (GPPC). O método de pesquisa adotado foi a pesquisa-ação, e a aplicação foi realizada junto ao Núcleo de Informação Tecnológica em Materiais (NIT/Materiais) da Universidade Federal de São Carlos (UFSCar). Foram os seguintes resultados obtidos: a) uma base de referência para apoio ao mapeamento de competências em IC; b) um glossário de atributos de competência de IC (conhecimentos, habilidades e atitudes); c) a ferramenta "Coletor de percepções de competências", para a coleta e análise de atributos de competência; d) procedimento para iniciar a gestão das competências individuais. A partir dos resultados obtidos e da discussão suscitada em torno da temática das competências em IC, foi possível concluir que o modelo de mapeamento pode contribuir para a criação e desenvolvimento de equipes de IC, em um processo de melhoria contínua.

Active systems, because they provide their own illumination, are capable of operating 24 hours a day and are not dependent upon the angle of the sun. Unlike passive systems, they can provide three-dimensional imaging. DARPA is currently developing systems, technologies, and signal processing to pioneer new or improve existing capabilities that employ active imaging capabilities. These involve both radar and ladar, ranging from a few MHz for foliage penetration to near-visible IR to achieve ultra-high resolution at long range. These capabilities would improve Battlefield Awareness (BA) and provide persistent Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) to perform target detection, recognition, and identification. This paper discusses two different approaches to active optical imaging. One is a coherent approach that uses synthetic aperture techniques with infrared laser radar, and another approach uses only the intensity of the speckle pattern in the aperture plane. Both are capable of producing ultra-high resolution at long range.

This article describes a major output of strategic intelligence: conceptual frameworks. Drawing on concepts from epistemology, ontology, and analytical methodology, it finds a philosophical foundation for conceptual frameworks in pragmatism and the ideas of Wittgenstein. Through the production and use of conceptual frameworks, strategic intelligence is revealed as both art and science, performing both creation and discovery. The use of such frameworks enables strategic intelligence to notice shifts as they begin to emerge. The article highlights Israeli theoretical perspectives, illustrates the practical utility of conceptual frameworks by applying them to Israeli cases, and suggests that using them contributes to strategy.

In lithium-ion battery systems for electric vehicles (EVs), the high voltage battery is composed of several modules, and a balance between them is essential to improve battery life and safety. In this paper, a novel low-voltage DC/DC converter (LDC) with integrated inter-module battery equalization circuit (IBEC) is proposed. The proposed converter can be implemented by adding a small number of elements to the existing phase shift full bridge (PSFB) DC/DC Converter, which is widely used as an LDC, and can effectively balance the target module in both directions of charging and discharging. IBEC switches are capable of ZVS operation over the entire load range, while PSFB converter switches can achieve ZVS without additional inductors, especially in discharge mode. To verify the balancing and powering operations, a prototype of 1kW is implemented and experimented.

The Global Strategic Partnership, a research consortium led by RAND, was commissioned by the UK Ministry of Defence to support the development of a concept of Multi-Domain Integration enabling the UK to maintain advantage by exploiting the integration of activities across domains. In particular, the study aimed to investigate the nature, extent and drivers of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea's own evolving thinking on multi-domain integration.

BACKGROUND: Women with urinary incontinence (UI) report that the disease negatively impacts their quality of life but, paradoxically, under-report symptoms. METHOD: A predictive model using Orem's self-care deficit theory was developed exploring the effect of body experience on self-care agency to manage UI. A sample of postmenopausal women was drawn from a larger trial. Structural equation modeling was used to test the proposed model. RESULTS: Minor modification of the model produced a well-fitting model (chi(9) = 3.20, P = .96, n = 235). Results supported the positive effect of nursing agency on self-care agency. CONCLUSION: Group education about UI may increase self-care agency in postmenopausal women.