Massey University

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. INTERPRETATION: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

We present a new open source, extensible and flexible software platform for Bayesian evolutionary analysis called BEAST 2. This software platform is a re-design of the popular BEAST 1 platform to correct structural deficiencies that became evident as the BEAST 1 software evolved. Key among those deficiencies was the lack of post-deployment extensibility. BEAST 2 now has a fully developed package management system that allows third party developers to write additional functionality that can be directly installed to the BEAST 2 analysis platform via a package manager without requiring a new software release of the platform. This package architecture is showcased with a number of recently published new models encompassing birth-death-sampling tree priors, phylodynamics and model averaging for substitution models and site partitioning. A second major improvement is the ability to read/write the entire state of the MCMC chain to/from disk allowing it to be easily shared between multiple instances of the BEAST software. This facilitates checkpointing and better support for multi-processor and high-end computing extensions. Finally, the functionality in new packages can be easily added to the user interface (BEAUti 2) by a simple XML template-based mechanism because BEAST 2 has been re-designed to provide greater integration between the analysis engine and the user interface so that, for example BEAST and BEAUti use exactly the same XML file format.

Simulated gastro-intestinal digestion is widely employed in many fields of food and nutritional sciences, as conducting human trials are often costly, resource intensive, and ethically disputable. As a consequence, in vitro alternatives that determine endpoints such as the bioaccessibility of nutrients and non-nutrients or the digestibility of macronutrients (e.g. lipids, proteins and carbohydrates) are used for screening and building new hypotheses. Various digestion models have been proposed, often impeding the possibility to compare results across research teams. For example, a large variety of enzymes from different sources such as of porcine, rabbit or human origin have been used, differing in their activity and characterization. Differences in pH, mineral type, ionic strength and digestion time, which alter enzyme activity and other phenomena, may also considerably alter results. Other parameters such as the presence of phospholipids, individual enzymes such as gastric lipase and digestive emulsifiers vs. their mixtures (e.g. pancreatin and bile salts), and the ratio of food bolus to digestive fluids, have also been discussed at length. In the present consensus paper, within the COST Infogest network, we propose a general standardised and practical static digestion method based on physiologically relevant conditions that can be applied for various endpoints, which may be amended to accommodate further specific requirements. A frameset of parameters including the oral, gastric and small intestinal digestion are outlined and their relevance discussed in relation to available in vivo data and enzymes. This consensus paper will give a detailed protocol and a line-by-line, guidance, recommendations and justifications but also limitation of the proposed model. This harmonised static, in vitro digestion method for food should aid the production of more comparable data in the future.

Developing a mechanistic understanding of the impact of food structure and composition on human health has increasingly involved simulating digestion in the upper gastrointestinal tract. These simulations have used a wide range of different conditions that often have very little physiological relevance, and this impedes the meaningful comparison of results. The standardized protocol presented here is based on an international consensus developed by the COST INFOGEST network. The method is designed to be used with standard laboratory equipment and requires limited experience to encourage a wide range of researchers to adopt it. It is a static digestion method that uses constant ratios of meal to digestive fluids and a constant pH for each step of digestion. This makes the method simple to use but not suitable for simulating digestion kinetics. Using this method, food samples are subjected to sequential oral, gastric and intestinal digestion while parameters such as electrolytes, enzymes, bile, dilution, pH and time of digestion are based on available physiological data. This amended and improved digestion method (INFOGEST 2.0) avoids challenges associated with the original method, such as the inclusion of the oral phase and the use of gastric lipase. The method can be used to assess the endpoints resulting from digestion of foods by analyzing the digestion products (e.g., peptides/amino acids, fatty acids, simple sugars) and evaluating the release of micronutrients from the food matrix. The whole protocol can be completed in ~7 d, including ~5 d required for the determination of enzyme activities.

Abstract Nuclear magnetic resonance imaging is best known for its spectacular use in medical tomography. However, the method has potential applications in biology, materials science, and chemical physics, some of which have begun to be realized as laboratory NMR spectrometers have been adapted to enable small scale imaging. NMR microscopy has available a rich variety of contrast including molecular specificity and sensitivity to molecular dynamics. In NMR imaging the signal is acquired in k-space, a dimension which bears a Fourier relationship with the positions of nuclear spins. A dynamic analogue of k-space imaging is the Pulsed Gradient Spin Echo (PGSE) experiment in which the signal is acquired in q-space, conjugate to the distances moved by the spins over a well-defined time interval. q-space microsocpy provides images of the nuclear self-correlation function with a resolution some two orders of magnitude better than is possible in imaging the nuclear density. As well as revealing the spectrum of molecular motion, PGSE NMR can be used to study morphology in porous systems through the influence of motional boundaries. This book explores principles and common themes underlying these two variants of NMR Microscopy, providing many examples of their use. The methods discussed here are of importance in fundamental biological and physical research, as well as having applications in a wide variety of industries, including those concerned with petrochemicals, polymers, biotechnology, food processing, and natural product processing.

A recent increase in studies of β diversity has yielded a confusing array of concepts, measures and methods. Here, we provide a roadmap of the most widely used and ecologically relevant approaches for analysis through a series of mission statements. We distinguish two types of β diversity: directional turnover along a gradient vs. non-directional variation. Different measures emphasize different properties of ecological data. Such properties include the degree of emphasis on presence/absence vs. relative abundance information and the inclusion vs. exclusion of joint absences. Judicious use of multiple measures in concert can uncover the underlying nature of patterns in β diversity for a given dataset. A case study of Indonesian coral assemblages shows the utility of a multi-faceted approach. We advocate careful consideration of relevant questions, matched by appropriate analyses. The rigorous application of null models will also help to reveal potential processes driving observed patterns in β diversity.

Abstract—Large Language Models (LLMs) suffer from inherent stochasticity, limiting their utility in high-stakes enterprise environments where determinism and auditability are required. This paper introduces the MFOUR Vibe Framework (MVF), a platform-agnostic architectural standard that transforms probabilistic natural language intent into deterministic software artifacts. We define a five-layer topology, comprising the Kernel Identity, Synaptic Routing, Interface Contracts, Context Anchoring, and the Mirror Test. Furthermore, we introduce The Vibe Integrity Score (VIS), a quantitative metric for evaluating the structural adherence of generative outputs. This specification provides the foundational schema and logic protocols for building "Glass Box" AI systems that are observable, secure, and commercially viable.

The basic reproduction number (0) is arguably the most important quantity in infectious disease epidemiology. The next-generation matrix (NGM) is the natural basis for the definition and calculation of (0) where finitely many different categories of individuals are recognized. We clear up confusion that has been around in the literature concerning the construction of this matrix, specifically for the most frequently used so-called compartmental models. We present a detailed easy recipe for the construction of the NGM from basic ingredients derived directly from the specifications of the model. We show that two related matrices exist which we define to be the NGM with large domain and the NGM with small domain. The three matrices together reflect the range of possibilities encountered in the literature for the characterization of (0). We show how they are connected and how their construction follows from the basic model ingredients, and establish that they have the same non-zero eigenvalues, the largest of which is the basic reproduction number (0). Although we present formal recipes based on linear algebra, we encourage the construction of the NGM by way of direct epidemiological reasoning, using the clear interpretation of the elements of the NGM and of the model ingredients. We present a selection of examples as a practical guide to our methods. In the appendix we present an elementary but complete proof that (0) defined as the dominant eigenvalue of the NGM for compartmental systems and the Malthusian parameter r, the real-time exponential growth rate in the early phase of an outbreak, are connected by the properties that (0) > 1 if and only if r > 0, and (0) = 1 if and only if r = 0.

ANOSIM, PERMANOVA, and the Mantel test are all resemblance‐based permutation methods widely used in ecology. Here, we report the results of the first simulation study, to our knowledge, specifically designed to examine the effects of heterogeneity of multivariate dispersions on the rejection rates of these tests and on a classical MANOVA test (Pillai's trace). Increasing differences in dispersion among groups were simulated under scenarios of changing sample sizes, correlation structures, error distributions, numbers of variables, and numbers of groups for balanced and unbalanced one‐way designs. The power of these tests to detect environmental impacts or natural large‐scale biogeographic gradients was also compared empirically under simulations based on parameters derived from real ecological data sets. Overall, ANOSIM and the Mantel test were very sensitive to heterogeneity in dispersions, with ANOSIM generally being more sensitive than the Mantel test. In contrast, PERMANOVA and Pillai's trace were largely unaffected by heterogeneity for balanced designs. PERMANOVA was also unaffected by differences in correlation structure, unlike Pillai's trace. For unbalanced designs, however, all of the tests were (1) too liberal when the smaller group had greater dispersion and (2) overly conservative when the larger group had greater dispersion, especially ANOSIM and the Mantel test. For simulations based on real ecological data sets, PERMANOVA was generally, but not always, more powerful than the others to detect changes in community structure, and the Mantel test was usually more powerful than ANOSIM. Both the error distributions and the resemblance measure affected results concerning power. Differences in the underlying construction of these test statistics result in important differences in the nature of the null hypothesis they are testing, their sensitivity to heterogeneity, and their power to detect important changes in ecological communities. For balanced designs, PERMANOVA and PERMDISP can be used to rigorously identify location vs. dispersion effects, respectively, in the space of the chosen resemblance measure. ANOSIM and the Mantel test can be used as more “omnibus” tests, being sensitive to differences in location, dispersion or correlation structure among groups. Unfortunately, none of the tests (PERMANOVA, Mantel, or ANOSIM) behaved reliably for unbalanced designs in the face of heterogeneity.

Student engagement is widely recognised as an important influence on achievement and learning in higher education and as such is being widely theorised and researched. This article firstly reviews and critiques the four dominant research perspectives on student engagement: the behavioural perspective, which foregrounds student behaviour and institutional practice; the psychological perspective, which clearly defines engagement as an individual psycho-social process; the socio-cultural perspective, which highlights the critical role of the socio-political context; and, finally, the holistic perspective, which takes a broader view of engagement. Key problems are identified, in particular poor definitions and a lack of distinction between the state of engagement, factors that influence student engagement, and the immediate and longer term consequences of engagement. The second part of the article presents a conceptual framework that overcomes these problems, incorporating valuable elements from each of the perspectives, to enable a better shared understanding of student engagement to frame future research and improve student outcomes.

Abstract Permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) is a geometric partitioning of variation across a multivariate data cloud, defined explicitly in the space of a chosen dissimilarity measure, in response to one or more factors in an analysis of variance design. Statistical inferences are made in a distribution‐free setting using permutational algorithms. The PERMANOVA framework is readily extended to accommodate random effects, hierarchical models, mixed models, quantitative covariates, repeated measures, unbalanced and/or asymmetrical designs, and, most recently, heterogeneous dispersions among groups. Plots to accompany PERMANOVA models include ordinations of either fitted or residualized distance matrices, including multivariate analogues to main effects and interaction plots, to visualize results.

From a public health perspective, alcohol is a major contributor to morbidity and mortality. This book describes recent advances in alcohol research which have direct relevance for the development of effective alcohol policies at the local, national and international levels. The central purpose of the book is to empower those responsible for public health and social welfare.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is an opportunistic pathogen affecting immunocompromised patients. It is known as the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in cystic fibrosis (CF) patients and as one of the leading causes of nosocomial infections. Due to a range of mechanisms for adaptation, survival and resistance to multiple classes of antibiotics, infections by P. aeruginosa strains can be life-threatening and it is emerging worldwide as public health threat. This review highlights the diversity of mechanisms by which P. aeruginosa promotes its survival and persistence in various environments and particularly at different stages of pathogenesis. We will review the importance and complexity of regulatory networks and genotypic-phenotypic variations known as adaptive radiation by which P. aeruginosa adjusts physiological processes for adaptation and survival in response to environmental cues and stresses. Accordingly, we will review the central regulatory role of quorum sensing and signaling systems by nucleotide-based second messengers resulting in different lifestyles of P. aeruginosa. Furthermore, various regulatory proteins will be discussed which form a plethora of controlling systems acting at transcriptional level for timely expression of genes enabling rapid responses to external stimuli and unfavorable conditions. Antibiotic resistance is a natural trait for P. aeruginosa and multiple mechanisms underlying different forms of antibiotic resistance will be discussed here. The importance of each mechanism in conferring resistance to various antipseudomonal antibiotics and their prevalence in clinical strains will be described. The underlying principles for acquiring resistance leading pan-drug resistant strains will be summarized. A future outlook emphasizes the need for collaborative international multidisciplinary efforts to translate current knowledge into strategies to prevent and treat P. aeruginosa infections while reducing the rate of antibiotic resistance and avoiding the spreading of resistant strains.

This analysis demonstrates the relevance and robustness of the theory of planned behavior in the prediction of business start–up intentions and subsequent behavior based on longitudinal survey data (2011 and 2012; n = 969) from the adult population in Austria and Finland. By doing so, the study addresses two weaknesses in current research: the limited scope of samples used in the majority of prior studies and the scarcity of investigations studying the translation of entrepreneurial intentions into behavior. The paper discusses conceptual and methodological issues related to studying the intention–behavior relationship and outlines avenues for future research.

BACKGROUND: Illumina's second-generation sequencing platform is playing an increasingly prominent role in modern DNA and RNA sequencing efforts. However, rapid, simple, standardized and independent measures of run quality are currently lacking, as are tools to process sequences for use in downstream applications based on read-level quality data. RESULTS: We present SolexaQA, a user-friendly software package designed to generate detailed statistics and at-a-glance graphics of sequence data quality both quickly and in an automated fashion. This package contains associated software to trim sequences dynamically using the quality scores of bases within individual reads. CONCLUSION: The SolexaQA package produces standardized outputs within minutes, thus facilitating ready comparison between flow cell lanes and machine runs, as well as providing immediate diagnostic information to guide the manipulation of sequence data for downstream analyses.

An increase in world population along with a significant aging portion is forcing rapid rises in healthcare costs. The healthcare system is going through a transformation in which continuous monitoring of inhabitants is possible even without hospitalization. The advancement of sensing technologies, embedded systems, wireless communication technologies, nano technologies, and miniaturization makes it possible to develop smart systems to monitor activities of human beings continuously. Wearable sensors detect abnormal and/or unforeseen situations by monitoring physiological parameters along with other symptoms. Therefore, necessary help can be provided in times of dire need. This paper reviews the latest reported systems on activity monitoring of humans based on wearable sensors and issues to be addressed to tackle the challenges.

Anthropogenic trade and development have broken down dispersal barriers, facilitating the spread of diseases that threaten Earth's biodiversity. We present a global, quantitative assessment of the amphibian chytridiomycosis panzootic, one of the most impactful examples of disease spread, and demonstrate its role in the decline of at least 501 amphibian species over the past half-century, including 90 presumed extinctions. The effects of chytridiomycosis have been greatest in large-bodied, range-restricted anurans in wet climates in the Americas and Australia. Declines peaked in the 1980s, and only 12% of declined species show signs of recovery, whereas 39% are experiencing ongoing decline. There is risk of further chytridiomycosis outbreaks in new areas. The chytridiomycosis panzootic represents the greatest recorded loss of biodiversity attributable to a disease.

nearest neighbor (kNN) method is a popular classification method in data mining and statistics because of its simple implementation and significant classification performance. However, it is impractical for traditional kNN methods to assign a fixed value (even though set by experts) to all test samples. Previous solutions assign different values to different test samples by the cross validation method but are usually time-consuming. This paper proposes a kTree method to learn different optimal values for different test/new samples, by involving a training stage in the kNN classification. Specifically, in the training stage, kTree method first learns optimal values for all training samples by a new sparse reconstruction model, and then constructs a decision tree (namely, kTree) using training samples and the learned optimal values. In the test stage, the kTree fast outputs the optimal value for each test sample, and then, the kNN classification can be conducted using the learned optimal value and all training samples. As a result, the proposed kTree method has a similar running cost but higher classification accuracy, compared with traditional kNN methods, which assign a fixed value to all test samples. Moreover, the proposed kTree method needs less running cost but achieves similar classification accuracy, compared with the newly kNN methods, which assign different values to different test samples. This paper further proposes an improvement version of kTree method (namely, k*Tree method) to speed its test stage by extra storing the information of the training samples in the leaf nodes of kTree, such as the training samples located in the leaf nodes, their kNNs, and the nearest neighbor of these kNNs. We call the resulting decision tree as k*Tree, which enables to conduct kNN classification using a subset of the training samples in the leaf nodes rather than all training samples used in the newly kNN methods. This actually reduces running cost of test stage. Finally, the experimental results on 20 real data sets showed that our proposed methods (i.e., kTree and k*Tree) are much more efficient than the compared methods in terms of classification tasks.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. METHODS: Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. RESULTS: In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. CONCLUSIONS: Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made.

BACKGROUND: Two bayesian methods, BayesCπ and BayesDπ, were developed for genomic prediction to address the drawback of BayesA and BayesB regarding the impact of prior hyperparameters and treat the prior probability π that a SNP has zero effect as unknown. The methods were compared in terms of inference of the number of QTL and accuracy of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs), using simulated scenarios and real data from North American Holstein bulls. RESULTS: Estimates of π from BayesCπ, in contrast to BayesDπ, were sensitive to the number of simulated QTL and training data size, and provide information about genetic architecture. Milk yield and fat yield have QTL with larger effects than protein yield and somatic cell score. The drawback of BayesA and BayesB did not impair the accuracy of GEBVs. Accuracies of alternative Bayesian methods were similar. BayesA was a good choice for GEBV with the real data. Computing time was shorter for BayesCπ than for BayesDπ, and longest for our implementation of BayesA. CONCLUSIONS: Collectively, accounting for computing effort, uncertainty as to the number of QTL (which affects the GEBV accuracy of alternative methods), and fundamental interest in the number of QTL underlying quantitative traits, we believe that BayesCπ has merit for routine applications.