National Counter Terrorism Security Office

Communities have the potential to function effectively and adapt successfully in the aftermath of disasters. Drawing upon literatures in several disciplines, we present a theory of resilience that encompasses contemporary understandings of stress, adaptation, wellness, and resource dynamics. Community resilience is a process linking a network of adaptive capacities (resources with dynamic attributes) to adaptation after a disturbance or adversity. Community adaptation is manifest in population wellness, defined as high and non-disparate levels of mental and behavioral health, functioning, and quality of life. Community resilience emerges from four primary sets of adaptive capacities--Economic Development, Social Capital, Information and Communication, and Community Competence--that together provide a strategy for disaster readiness. To build collective resilience, communities must reduce risk and resource inequities, engage local people in mitigation, create organizational linkages, boost and protect social supports, and plan for not having a plan, which requires flexibility, decision-making skills, and trusted sources of information that function in the face of unknowns.

This article argues that there has been an increasing convergence of the discourses of terrorism, radicalization and, more lately, extremism in the UK and that this has caused counterterrorism to lose its focus. This is particularly evident in the counterterrorism emphasis on non-violent but extremist ideology that is said to be ‘conducive’ to terrorism. Yet, terrorism is ineluctably about violence or the threat of violence; hence, if a non-violent ideology is in and of itself culpable for terrorism in some way then it ceases to be non-violent. The article argues that there should be a clearer distinction made between (non-violent) extremism of thought and extremism of method because it is surely violence and the threat of violence (integral to terrorism) that should be the focus of counterterrorism. The concern is that counterterrorism has gone beyond its remit of countering terrorism and has ventured into the broader realm of tackling ideological threats to the state.

This study presents American state police agencies' perceptions about three significant terrorism and public safety issues. First, we asked about the threat posed by specified extremist groups nationally and to their state. We asked about the number of such groups and their supporters, and the number of activities each group participates in during a typical year in their state. We also asked about the number of criminal incidents each group commits and the number of their supporters arrested in a typical year. Second, we asked the agencies to rate the usefulness of fifteen specified terrorism sources. Third, we queried the agencies about their views of eight terrorism definitions. These data were collected by surveying the fifty state police agencies in the United States. We discovered widespread concern about the criminal activities of various extremist groups, with a particular concern about the threat of Islamic jihadists. Interestingly, although the top rated threat was Islamic jihadists, the respondents indicated that other types of groups were much more criminally active. Further, respondents indicated that various open and non-open sources were valuable terrorism sources. Finally, most respondents reacted more favorably to official terrorism definitions—especially the FBI's—as opposed to academic definitions. We conclude with a discussion of the policy implications of our findings and we outline directions for future research.

Refugee studies have examined both resilience and adverse outcomes, but no research has examined how different outcomes co-occur or are distinct, and the social-contextual factors that give rise to these diverse outcomes. The current study begins to address this gap by using latent profile analysis to examine the ways in which delinquency, gang involvement, civic engagement, political engagement, and openness to violent extremism cluster among Somali refugees. We then use multivariable regression analyses to examine how adversity (e.g., discrimination, trauma, and marginalization) is associated with the identified latent classes. Data were collected from 374 Somali refugee young adults (Mage = 21.30 years, SD = 2.90, range 18-30, 38% female) from 4 different North American communities. Participants completed a structured survey assessing their experiences of adversity, delinquent and/or violent attitudes and behaviors (e.g., attitudes toward violent extremism, participation in delinquent behaviors, involvement in gangs), and positive outcomes (e.g., civic and political engagement). Our findings indicate that participants fall into 5 distinct groups, and that social-contextual and individual factors are uniquely related to those groups. Specifically, strong social bonds seem to be associated with positive outcomes. These findings point to the need to further examine both positive and negative outcomes, paying special attention to social-contextual factors. (PsycINFO Database Record

International relations scholars have long focused on power relations among nations as an explanatory factor for a wide variety of state behaviors, including alliance formation, strategic interactions, and negotiation strategies. Power transition theorists have argued that war is most likely when power is equally distributed among nations or, more precisely, when the power of the challenger approaches—or begins to exceed—that of its opponent (Organski, 1968 Organski, A. F. K. 1968. World Politics, New York: Knopf. [Google Scholar]; Organski and Kugler, 1980 Organski, A. F. K. and Kugler, Jacek. 1980. The War Ledger, Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]; Kugler and Lemke, 1996 Kugler, Jacek and Lemke, Douglas. 1996. Parity and War: Evaluations and Extensions of The War Ledger, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). Balance of power theorists, on the other hand, have argued that equality of power among nations diminishes the chance of war, as uncertainty about outcomes caused by approximate power parity leads actors to be more cautious (Claude, 1962 Claude, Inis. 1962. Power and International Relations, New York: Random House. [Google Scholar]; Wright, 1965 Wright, Quincy. 1965. A Study of War , 2nd, Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. [Google Scholar]). The research presented here considers relative power not as a cause of conflict, as these previous studies have done, but as a factor relevant to conflict resolution efforts. In this study, we focus on crises as a specific instance of conflicts in the international system and on mediation as a specific conflict resolution measure. Building upon previous work (Wilkenfeld et al., 2003 Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, Young, Kathleen, Asal, Victor and Quinn, David. 2003. Mediating International Crises: Cross-national and Experimental Perspectives. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47: 279–301. [CSA][CROSSREF][Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2005 Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, Young, Kathleen, Quinn, David and Asal, Victor. 2005. Mediating International Crises, London: Routledge. [Google Scholar]), we examine the way mediation styles and power relations among crisis actors interact and impact on whether the crisis ends in an agreement, and whether the crisis outcome leads to long-term, postcrisis tension reductions. This research is intended to extend understanding of the nature of crisis behavior and to inform efforts to manage crises most effectively.

Abstract A clear definition of system dynamics modeling can provide shared understanding and clarify the impact of the field. We introduce a set of characteristics that define quantitative system dynamics, selected to capture core philosophy, describe theoretical and practical principles, and apply to historical work but be flexible enough to remain relevant as the field progresses. The defining characteristics are: (1) models are based on causal feedback structure, (2) accumulations and delays are foundational, (3) models are equation‐based, (4) concept of time is continuous, and (5) analysis focuses on feedback dynamics. We discuss the implications of these principles and use them to identify research opportunities in which the system dynamics field can advance. These research opportunities include causality, disaggregation, data science and AI, and contributing to scientific advancement. Progress in these areas has the potential to improve both the science and practice of system dynamics. © 2024 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

The Global Terrorism Database (GTD) is an open-source database including information on terrorist events around the world from 1970 through 2010 (with annual updates planned for the future). Unlike many other event databases, the GTD includes systematic data on domestic as well as transnational and international terrorist incidents that have occurred during this time period and now includes more than 98,000 cases. For each GTD incident, information is available on the date and location of the incident, the weapons used and nature of the target, the number of casualties, and—when identifiable—the group or individual responsible.

This study presents state police agencies’ perceptions about three significant terrorism issues on which there is little empirical research. All three issues have significant implications for understanding the role of state police agencies in responding to terrorism threats. First, the authors investigated whether the respondents believed that supporters of specified extremist movements tended to commit crimes as lone wolves, with others, or both alone and with others. Second, they were asked to provide data to gauge how often far-right extremists committed 13 crime types that varied in magnitude and motivation. Third, they were asked if they had knowledge about whether far-right extremists and Islamic jihadists had cooperated to commit crimes. These data were collected by surveying the 50 state police agencies in the United States. The results indicate that state police officials are concerned with both group and lone-wolf activities. Importantly, there was variation in the potential for lone-wolf crimes when comparing different types of extremist movements. The results indicate that far-right extremists are involved in a range of terrorist, preparatory, and routine criminal activities, but this involvement varies by region. Two state police agencies also indicated that they knew of Islamic and far-right collaboration. The study identified two other instances of direct collaboration and a number of other interesting cases through open source searches. The article concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of the findings and outlines directions for future research.

Abstract Providing information to help individuals cope physically and psychologically with a disaster is critical in crisis communication. However, how individuals cope is relatively understudied. In particular, researchers have examined how people emotionally cope during different types of crises, but not in a natural disaster context and not religiosity. Yet, religiosity can be important during disasters, given that about 89% of adults in the United States believe in God (Pew Research Center, 2014). Through ten focus groups (N = 77) and a survey (N = 1,484), this study examines how residents of the Southeast United States cope in response to tornadoes. Findings indicate that participants experience anxiety and fear during a tornado, but fear and hope trigger physical action taking (e.g., sheltering in place or collecting supplies). Prayer during a tornado does not significantly predict action taking. Religiosity significantly predicts physical action taking.

Converts to Islam represent a small percentage of the Muslim community in Western countries. Yet when it comes to Islamist extremism and terrorism, research has suggested that converts are considerably overrepresented. This ICCT Policy Brief serves as an introduction to this topic by providing an overview of what is known about converts’ involvement in homegrown jihadism and the foreign fighter phenomenon. Notwithstanding considerable reservations about the quantity and quality of the available data, this Policy Brief finds support for the notion of convert overrepresentation in these activities. This is especially so in the case of foreign fighters. What little data was found on converts’ involvement in homegrown jihadism provided a more nuanced picture, emphasizing that overrepresentation may not be the norm in all Western countries and that it may be a relatively recent development. Numerous explanations for converts’ involvement in Islamist extremism and terrorism have been provided, running the gamut from structural-level explanations to distinctly personal motives. At present, however, a comprehensive, theoretically sound and empirically grounded understanding of how and why converts become involved in Islamist militancy is absent. The Policy Brief concludes by stressing the need to develop our understanding of this important yet under-researched topic.

This article analyzes a unique branch of terrorism literature—terrorism futures—by academics, think tanks, and governmental agencies published between 2000 and 2012. To this end, it examines over sixty publications that attempt to discern possible futures of terrorism. In general, the track record of forecasting terrorism has not been good. This is particularly true for major changes in the modus operandi of terrorism, the attacks on 9/11 being a case in point. The analyses of the future of terrorism shows an absence of methodologies, and the lack of theoretical foundations, which lead to limited insights about the causes of changes in terrorism. Most forecasts seem to say more about the present state of terrorism than about the future. The article concludes with a call for a more systematic approach grounded in theory and methodology in order to improve the quality of foresight studies, and to enable researchers to better understand how to assess, model, forecast, and respond to the future terrorist threat.

Doxycycline hyclate drug product impurities and rapid quantification using a validated UPLC method.

Abstract Space has always animated world politics, but three spatial orientations are striking. First, the Westphalian orientation deems space a sovereign power container. Second, the scalar takes recourse to the local, regional, national, and global spaces in which world politics is played out. Third, the relational deems space a (re)produced, sociohistorically contingent phenomenon that changes according to the humans occupying it and the thought, power, and resources flowing through it. Under this latter orientation, space is lived, lived in and lived through. Whilst relationality, to a degree, calls into question the received wisdoms of International Relations (IR), the fixity of sovereignty and territory remain. The orientations coexist concomitantly, reflecting the “many worlds” humankind occupies.

This paper examines the role search engine algorithms have in ethnopolitical mobilization. Offline, the news media are vital in a minority at risk (MAR) group's message dissemination. As Tarrow (1994) Tarrow, S. 1994. Power in movements: Social movements, collective action and politics, Cambridge, , England: Cambridge University Press. [Google Scholar] explains, they are a valuable “external resource.” We argue search engine algorithms perform a similar external resource function mediating what sites get reported as top-ranked search results. The paper addresses whether an association exists between the number of MAR advocacy Web sites protesting a MAR's plight within a search engines' (Google) top 30 search results and the level of grievance a MAR group experiences or the available open opportunity structures. We hypothesize and find that a MAR's grievance level—rather than the availability of open opportunity structures—is vital in explaining the role of search engines in ethnopolitical mobilization.

This paper examines US Army recruitment and training as a form of mobilization with many parallels to political radicalization of non-state groups, including groups that turn to terrorism. Military and terrorist organizations are different in many important respects. They are, however, alike in their need to convert civilians into warriors ready to make sacrifices for a group cause. Seven mechanisms of mobilization are identified as contributing to the preparation for sacrifice that occurs for both terrorists and US Army recruits: political grievance; love of individual comrades; extremity shift in likeminded groups; extreme cohesion under isolation and threat; mass radicalization by external threat; dehumanizing the enemy as having a bad essence; and valorizing of self-sacrifice and martyrdom. Contrasting army recruits with terrorist recruits suggests that the military faces and surmounts a more difficult challenge in socializing recruits for self-sacrifice.

This article uses a game-theoretic approach to analyze the risk of cross-milieu terrorist collaboration-the possibility that, despite marked ideological differences, extremist groups from very different milieus might align to a degree where operational collaboration against Western societies becomes possible. Based upon theoretical insights drawn from a variety of literatures, a bargaining model is constructed that reflects the various benefits and costs for terrorists' collaboration across ideological milieus. Analyzed in both sequential and simultaneous decision-making contexts and through numerical simulations, the model confirms several theoretical arguments. The most important of these is that although likely to be quite rare, successful collaboration across terrorist milieus is indeed feasible in certain circumstances. The model also highlights several structural elements that might play a larger role than previously recognized in the collaboration decision, including that the prospect of nonmaterial gains (amplification of terror and reputational boost) plays at least as important a role in the decision to collaborate as potential increased capabilities does. Numerical simulation further suggests that prospects for successful collaboration over most scenarios (including operational) increase when a large, effective Islamist terrorist organization initiates collaboration with a smaller right-wing group, as compared with the other scenarios considered. Although the small number of historical cases precludes robust statistical validation, the simulation results are supported by existing empirical evidence of collaboration between Islamists and right- or left-wing extremists. The game-theoretic approach, therefore, provides guidance regarding the circumstances under which such an unholy alliance of violent actors is likely to succeed.

We consider the problem of modeling and clustering heterogeneous event data arising from coupled conflict event and social media data sets. In this setting conflict events trigger responses on social media, and, at the same time, signals of grievance detected in social media may serve as leading indicators for subsequent conflict events. For this purpose we introduce the Hawkes Binomial Topic Model (HBTM) where marks, Tweets and conflict event descriptions are represented as bags of words following a Binomial distribution. When viewed as a branching process, the daughter event bag of words is generated by randomly turning on/off parent words through independent Bernoulli random variables. We then use expectation–maximization to estimate the model parameters and branching structure of the process. The inferred branching structure is then used for topic cascade detection, short-term forecasting, and investigating the causal dependence of grievance on social media and conflict events in recent elections in Nigeria and Kenya.

This study examined the concentrations and toxicological risks of four priority heavy metals lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), arsenic (As), and mercury (Hg) in blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) collected from oil-affected creeks in Rivers State, Nigeria. A total of 90 crabs were gathered from Bodo, Ataba, and Okpoka creeks, and metal analysis was conducted using Microwave Plasma Atomic Emission Spectroscopy (MP-AES 4200) after acid digestion. One-way ANOVA revealed significant site-related variations for all metals (p < 0.001) and significant gender effects for Pb and Hg (p < 0.05), with Tukey’s post-hoc tests indicating that crabs from Ataba and Bodo contained significantly higher concentrations than those from Okpoka (p < 0.05). Human health risk indices, including Estimated Daily Intake (EDI), Target Hazard Quotient (THQ), Hazard Index (HI), and Lifetime Cancer Risk (LCR), were calculated for both adult and child consumers based on mean metal concentrations. Results indicated that mean concentrations of Pb, Cd, As, and Hg in crab tissues exceeded permissible limits set by the World Health Organisation and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (WHO/FAO), with the highest values recorded in Ataba and Bodo creeks. THQ and HI values for Pb and As surpassed the acceptable threshold of 1 in both adult and child groups, signalling potential non-carcinogenic health risks. LCR values for As and Pb also exceeded the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) acceptable range (10⁻⁶–10⁻⁴), suggesting carcinogenic potential with prolonged exposure. These findings highlight critical environmental and public health concerns linked to seafood consumption from oil-contaminated ecosystems in the Niger Delta and underscore the need for continuous ecological monitoring, stricter seafood safety regulations, and targeted community health awareness programmes.

A trusted vehicle such as an ambulance could be used as part of a terrorist plot to help deliver a vehicle borne improvised explosive device to its intended target. Such a vehicle being used in this manner is called a ‘Trojan’ vehicle. Examples of such use exist from other countries worldwide and it is not unreasonable to think that this type of terrorism attack could be used in this country. Drastic mitigation measures have been used abroad to prevent this form of terrorist attack from occurring; however, these can cause delay to patient care and hospital access. In this country more simple security measures (such as those used to prevent theft of property) can be utilised to mitigate against this type of attack, and paramedics, along with the wider ambulance sector, have a role to play in implementing such security measures and preventing such an attack.

This study investigated the concentrations of selected heavy metals—zinc (Zn), lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu), and arsenic (As)—in four smoked-dried fish species widely consumed in southeastern Nigeria: catfish (Clarias gariepinus), mackerel (Scomber scombrus), bonga fish (Ethmalosa fimbriata), and asa fish (Gymnarchus niloticus). Samples were obtained from Eke-Awka Market and analyzed using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry. Results, expressed in mg/kg dry weight, revealed statistically significant interspecies variations (p < 0.05). G. niloticus exhibited the highest concentrations of Zn (5.47 ± 0.71), Cd (0.25 ± 0.01), and As (0.04 ± 0.02), while S. scombrus contained the highest Pb level (0.16 ± 0.01). Conversely, C. gariepinus recorded the highest Cu concentration (0.74 ± 0.05). Although all concentrations were below the permissible limits set by the World Health Organization (WHO) and Federal Ministry of Environment (FME), the health risk assessment revealed that the target hazard quotients (THQs) and the cumulative hazard index (HI = 0.362) were below 1, indicating no significant non-carcinogenic risk. However, the lifetime cancer risk (LCR) for cadmium (1.2 × 10⁻³) exceeded the acceptable USEPA threshold, suggesting a potential long-term carcinogenic concern from continuous dietary exposure. These findings indicate that while the smoked-dried fish are generally safe for consumption in the short term, routine monitoring is essential, with particular attention to G. niloticus, which demonstrated higher accumulation of several metals. Improved hygienic smoking practices and strengthened regulatory oversight are recommended to safeguard public health.