Short-Run Multi-Outcome Effects of Nightlife Regulation in San Juan

Shared by Gary on Nov 1, 2025 • 12:59 AM UTC

Authors:

Jorge A. Arroyo

Abstract

I evaluate San Juan, Puerto Rico’s late-night alcohol sales ordinance using a multi-outcome synthetic control that pools economic and public-safety series. I show that a common-weight estimator clarifies mechanisms under low-rank outcome structure. I find economically mean- meaningful reallocations ...

Subject

MOSC

multi-outcome synthetic control

common weights

Highlights

-Demonstrates how common-weight MOSC improves cross-outcome interpretability when outcomes share low-rank structure.

-Documents economically meaningful short-run changes in targeted sectors alongside near-zero effects on crime.

-Shows how a six-donor pool and short post-period influence statistical power, emphasizing magnitude and persistence over conventional significance.

-Illustrates a hotel exemption mechanism and measurement asymmetry as a driver of employment-revenue divergence.

Subject

Highlights

Strengths & Weaknesses

Commercial Applications

Societal Benefits & Applications

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