Reducing Overconfidence in the Interval Judgments of Experts

Speirs‐Bridge, Andrew; Fidler, Fiona; F. McBride, Marissa; Flander, Louisa; Cumming, Geoff; A. Burgman, Mark

doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01337.x

Public

Reducing Overconfidence in the Interval Judgments of Experts

Published in Risk Analysis • Dec 17, 2009

Authors:

Andrew Speirs‐Bridge

Fiona Fidler

Marissa F. McBride

Abstract

Elicitation of expert opinion is important for risk analysis when only limited data are available. Expert opinion is often elicited in the form of subjective confidence intervals; however, these are prone to substantial overconfidence. We investigated the influence of elicitation question format, in...

Subject

Overconfidence effect

Confidence interval

Expert elicitation

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