Toward Improved Convection-Allowing Ensembles: Model Physics Sensitivities and Optimizing Probabilistic Guidance with Small Ensemble Membership

S. Schwartz, Craig; S. Kain, John; J. Weiss, Steven; Xue, Ming; R. Bright, David; Kong, Fanyou; W. Thomas, Kevin; J. Levit, Jason; C. Coniglio, Michael; S. Wandishin, Matthew

doi:10.1175/2009waf2222267.1

Public

Toward Improved Convection-Allowing Ensembles: Model Physics Sensitivities and Optimizing Probabilistic Guidance with Small Ensemble Membership

Published in Weather and Forecasting • Jun 25, 2009

Authors:

Craig S. Schwartz

John S. Kain

Steven J. Weiss

Abstract

Abstract During the 2007 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma produced a daily 10-member 4-km horizontal resolution ensemble forecast covering approximately three-fourths of the continental United Stat...

Subject

Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Probabilistic logic

Ensemble forecasting

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