Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004)

Wang, Bin; Wang, Bin; Lee, June‐Yi; Kang, In-Sik; Shukla, J.; Park, C.-K.; Kumar, A.; Schemm, J.; COCKE, S; Luo, Jing‐Jia; Luo, J.J.; Zhou, T.; Wang, B.; Wang, B.; Fu, X.; Yun, W.-T.; Alves, O.; K. Jin, E.; Kinter, J.; Kirtman, B.; Krishnamurti, T.; Liu, Puyang; Lau, W.; Liu, P.; Pegion, P.; Rosati, T.; Schubert, S.; Stern, W.; J. Suárez, Max; Yamagata, Toshio

doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0460-0

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Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004)

Published in Climate Dynamics • Sep 15, 2008

Authors:

Bin Wang

June‐Yi Lee

Abstract

We assessed current status of multi-model ensemble (MME) deterministic and probabilistic seasonal prediction based on 25-year (1980–2004) retrospective forecasts performed by 14 climate model systems (7 one-tier and 7 two-tier systems) that participate in the Climate Prediction and its Application t...

Subject

Brier score

Forecast skill

Probabilistic logic

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