A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

H. Field, Edward; H. Jordan, T.; T. Page, M.; R. Milner, Kevin; E. Shaw, Bruce; E. Dawson, Timothy; P. Biasi, G.; Parsons, Tom; L. Hardebeck, Jeanne; J. Michael, Andrew; J. Weldon, Ray; M. Powers, Peter; M. Johnson, K.; Zeng, Yuehua; R. Felzer, K.; van der Elst, N.; Madden, Christopher; Arrowsmith, R.; J. Werner, Maximilian; Thatcher, Wayne

doi:10.1785/0220170045

Public

A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

Published in Seismological Research Letters • Jul 12, 2017

Authors:

Edward H. Field

T. H. Jordan

M. T. Page

Abstract

Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake-producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long-term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, cons...

Subject

Geological survey

Geology

Observatory

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