Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Sherratt, Katharine; Gruson, Hugo; Grah, Rok; Johnson, Helen; Niehus, Rene; Prasse, Bastian; Sandmann, Frank; Deuschel, Jannik; Wolffram, Daniel; Abbott, Sam; Ullrich, Alexander; Gibson, Graham; L Ray, Evan; G Reich, Nicholas; Sheldon, Daniel; Wang, Yijin; Wattanachit, Nutcha; Wang, Lijing; Trnka, Ján; Obozinski, Guillaume; Sun, Tao; Thanou, Dorina; Pottier, Loïc; Krymova, Ekaterina; H. Meinke, Jan; Vittoria Barbarossa, Maria; Leithäuser, Neele; Möhring, Jan; Schneider, Johanna; Wlazło, Jarosław; Fuhrmann, Jan; Lange, Berit; Rodiah, Isti; Baccam, Prasith; Gurung, Heidi; Stage, Steven; Suchoski, Bradley; Budzinski, Jozef; Walraven, Robert; Villanueva, Inmaculada; Tuček, Vít; Šmíd, Martin; Zajíček, Milan; Perez Alvarez, Cesar; Reina, Borja; I Bosse, Nikos; Meakin, Sophie; Castro, Lauren; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Michaud, Isaac; Osthus, Dave; Alaimo Di Loro, Pierfrancesco; Maruotti, Antonello; Eclerová, Veronika; Kraus, Andrea; Kraus, David; Přibylová, Lenka; Dimitris, Bertsimas; Lingzhi Li, Michael; Saksham, Soni; Dehning, Jonas; Mohr, Sebastian; Priesemann, Viola; Redlarski, Grzegorz; Béjar, Benjamı́n; Ardenghi, Giovanni; Parolini, Nicola; Ziarelli, Giovanni; Böck, Wolfgang; Heyder, Stefan; Hotz, Thomas; E Singh, David; Guzmán-Merino, Miguel; L Aznarte, Jose; Moriña, David; Alonso, Sergio; Àlvarez, Enric; López, Daniel; Prats, Clara; Pablo Burgard, Jan; Rodloff, Arne; Zimmermann, Tom; Kuhlmann, Alexander; Žibert, Janez; Pennoni, Fulvia; Divino, Fabio; Català, Martí; Lovison, Gianfranco; Giudici, Paolo; Tarantino, Barbara; Bartolucci, Francesco; Jona Lasinio, Giovanna; Mingione, Marco; Farcomeni, Alessio; Srivastava, Ajitesh; Montero‐Manso, Pablo; Adiga, Aniruddha; Hurt, Benjamin; Lewis, Bryan; Marathe, Madhav; Porebski, Przemyslaw; Venkatramanan, Srinivasan; Bartczuk, Rafał; Dreger, Filip; Gambin, Anna; Gogolewski, Krzysztof; Gruziel-Słomka, Magdalena; Krupa, Bartosz; Moszyński, Antoni; Niedzielewski, Karol; Nowosielski, Jedrzej; Radwan, Maciej; Rakowski, Franciszek; Semeniuk, Marcin; Szczurek, Ewa; Zieliński, Jakub; Kisielewski, Jan; Pabjan, Barbara; Kirsten, Holger; Kheifetz, Yuri; Scholz, Markus; Przemyslaw, Biecek; Bodych, Marcin; Filiński, Maciej; Idzikowski, Radosław; Krueger, Tyll; Ożański, Tomasz; Bracher, Johannes; Funk, Sebastian

doi:10.7554/elife.81916

Public

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Published in eLife • Mar 29, 2023

Authors:

Katharine Sherratt

Hugo Gruson

Rok Grah

Abstract

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple mo...

Subject

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

2019-20 coronavirus outbreak

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)

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