Operational Storm Surge Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center: The Case for Probabilistic Guidance and the Evaluation of Improved Storm Size Forecasts Used to Define the Wind Forcing

B. Penny, Andrew; Paulik Alaka, Laura; Taylor, Arthur; James Booth, William; DeMaria, Mark; Fritz, Cody; Rhome, Jamie

doi:10.1175/waf-d-22-0209.1

Public

Operational Storm Surge Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center: The Case for Probabilistic Guidance and the Evaluation of Improved Storm Size Forecasts Used to Define the Wind Forcing

Published in Weather and Forecasting • Oct 20, 2023

Authors:

Andrew B. Penny

Laura Paulik Alaka

Arthur Taylor

Abstract

Abstract The primary source of guidance used by the Storm Surge Unit (SSU) at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for issuing storm surge watches and warnings is the Probabilistic Tropical Storm Surge model (P-Surge). P-Surge is an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) m...

Subject

Storm surge

Tropical cyclone

Environmental science

Finding related papers...

Discussions

(0)

No comments yet

Be the first to share your thoughts!