Interpreting Warn-on-Forecast System Guidance, Part I: Review of Probabilistic Guidance Concepts, Product Design, and Best Practices

S. Skinner, Patrick; A. Wilson, Katie; C. Matilla, Brian; Roberts, Brett; Yussouf, Nusrat; C. Burke, Patrick; L. HeinseIman, Pamela; T. Gallo, Burkely; A. Jones, Thomas; H. Knopfmeier, Kent; L. Flora, Montgomery; Martin, Joshua; Castillo Guerra, J.E.; Todd Lindley, T.; M. Gravelle, Chad; W. Bieda, Stephen

doi:10.15191/nwajom.2023.1109

Public

Interpreting Warn-on-Forecast System Guidance, Part I: Review of Probabilistic Guidance Concepts, Product Design, and Best Practices

Published in Journal of Operational Meteorology • Dec 19, 2023

Authors:

Patrick S. Skinner

Katie A. Wilson

Brian C. Matilla

Abstract

The Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) is a convection-allowing ensemble prediction system designed to primarily provide guidance on thunderstorm hazards from the meso-beta to storm-scale in space and from several hours to less than one hour in time. This article describes unique aspects of WoFS guidanc...

Subject

Probabilistic logic

Thunderstorm

Storm

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