Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Teramoto, Masayuki; Ababneh, Hazim; Abate, Yohannes; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasgholizadeh, Rouzbeh; Abbasian, Mohammadreza; Abbastabar, Hedayat; H A Abd Al Magied, Abdallah; Abd ElHafeez, Samar; Abdelkader, Atef; Abdelmasseh, Michael; Abd‐Elsalam, Sherief; Abdi, Parsa; Abdollahı, Mohammad; Abdoun, Meriem; Abdullahi, Auwal; Abebe, Mesfin; Abiodun, Olumide; Gyan Aboagye, Richard; Abolhassani, Hassan; Abouzid, Mohamed; Beressa Aboye, Girma; Guimarães Abreu, Lucas; Absalan, Abdorrahim; Abualruz, Hasan; Abubakar, Bilyaminu; J Abukhadijah, Hana; Addolorato, Giovanni; Adekanmbi, Victor; Oluwaseun Adetunji, Charles; Bunmi Adetunji, Juliana; Esther Adeyeoluwa, Temitayo; Adha, Rishan; Kumar Adhikary, Ripon; Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Qorinah; Akua Adzigbli, Leticia; Afrashteh, Fatemeh; U. Afzal, Muhammad; Afzal, Saira; Agbozo, Faith; Agodi, Antonella; Agrawal, Anurag; Agyemang‐Duah, Williams; Opoku Ahinkorah, Bright; J Ahlstrom, Austin; Ahmad, Aqeel; Ahmad, Firdos; Ahmad, Muayyad; Ahmad, Sajjad; Ahmad, Shahzaib; Ahmed, Anisuddin; Ahmed, Ayman; Ahmed, Haroon; Ahmed, Safoora; Anees Ahmed, Syed; Akinosoglou, Karolina; Ahmed Akkaif, Mohammed; E Akrami, Ashley; Akter, Ema; Al Awaidy, Salah; Mahfuz Al Hasan, Syed; S Al Mosa, Amjad; Al Ta’ani, Omar; Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi, Omar; Alahdab, Fares; Alajlani, Muaaz; A. Al‐Ajlouni, Yazan; O Alalalmeh, Samer; Al‐Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore; Alam, Shazia; Alam, Zufishan; Al‐Amer, Rasmieh; Alanezi, Fahad; M Alanzi, Turki; A. Albakri, Almaza; Ali Aldhaleei, Wafa; W Aldridge, Robert; Yasaman Alemohammad, Seyedeh; Alemu, Megbaru; Al‐Gheethi, Adel; Khaled Al‐Hanawi, Mohammed; Ali, Abid; Ali, Amjad; Ali, Iman; Usman Ali, Mohammed; Ali, Rafat; Shujait Ali, Syed; Ekoche Ali, Victor; Ali, Waad; Al‐Ibraheem, Akram; Alicandro, Gianfranco; Mohammad Alif, Sheikh; Mohamed Aljunid, Syed; Alla, François; Uy Almazan, Joseph; M. Al‐Mekhlafi, Hesham; Yaseen Alqutaibi, Ahmed; Alrawashdeh, Ahmad; Majed Alrousan, Sahel; Khalifah Al-Sabah, Salman; Alsabri, Mohammed; Altaany, Zaid; B. Al‐Tammemi, Ala’a; A. Al‐Tawfiq, Jaffar; A Altirkawi, Khalid; Oyine Aluh, Deborah; Alvis‐Guzmán, Nelson; Al‐Wardat, Mohammad; Mohammed Al‐Worafi, Yaser; Aly, Hany; S. Alyahya, Mohammad; H. Alzoubi, Karem; Al-Zyoud, Walid; Amani, Reza; Kwabena Ameyaw, Edward; Tawfik Amin, Tarek; Amindarolzarbi, Alireza; Amiri, Sohrab; Hosein Amirzade-Iranaq, Mohammad; Amu, Hubert; A Amugsi, Dickson; Ancuceanu, Robert; Anderlini, Deanna; Anderson, David; Prata Andrade, Pedro; Liliana Andrei, Cătălina; Andrei, Tudorel; Adrian Andrews, Erick; Anil, Abhishek; Anil, Sneha; Anoushiravani, Amir; M Antony, Catherine; Antriyandarti, Ernoiz; Stephen Anuoluwa, Boluwatife; Anvari, Saeid; Edward Anyasodor, Anayochukwu; Appiah, Francis; Aquilano, Michele; Pablo Arab, Juan; Arabloo, Jalal; A Arafa, Elshaimaa; Arafat, Mosab; Y. Aravkin, Aleksandr; M. Ardekani, Ali; Areda, Demelash; Berhe Aregawi, Brhane; Aremu, Abdulfatai; Ariffin, Hany; Arkew, Mesay; Armani, Keivan; A Artamonov, Anton; Arumugam, Ashokan; Asghari Jafarabadi, Mohammad; Ashbaugh, Charlie; Astell‐Burt, Thomas; Shamsadin Athari, Seyyed; Atorkey, Prince; Atout, Maha; Aujayeb, Avinash; Ausloos, Marcel; Awad, Hamzeh; Wasiu Awotidebe, Adedapo; Ayatollahi, Haleh; Luís Ayuso‐Mateos, José; Azadnajafabad, Sina; Khan Azeez, Fahad; Azevedo, Rui; Badar, Muhammad; Baghdadi, Soroush; Bagheri, Mahboube; Bagheri, Nasser; Bai, Ruhai; L. Baker, Jennifer; Bako, Abdulaziz; Balakrishnan, Senthilkumar; Feyisa Balcha, Wondu; Constantin Baltatu, Ovidiu; Barchitta, Martina; Bardideh, Erfan; Barker‐Collo, Suzanne; Bärnighausen, Till; Jawdat Barqawi, Hiba; Barteit, Sandra; Basiru, Afisu; Diogo Basso, João; Bastan, Mohammad‐Mahdi; Basu, Sanjay; Bauckneht, Matteo; T. Baune, Bernhard; Bayati, Mohsen; Simegnew Bayileyegn, Nebiyou; Hossein Behnoush, Amir; Behzadi, Payam; Beiranvand, Maryam; Omolaja Bello, Olorunjuwon; Belo, Luı́s; Beloukas, Apostolos; Bemanalizadeh, Maryam; M. Benseñor, Isabela; Benzian, Habib; Beran, Azizullah; Berezvai, Zombor; S. Bernstein, Robert; J. G. Bettencourt, Paulo; Beyene, Kebede; Gedamu Beyene, Melak; S. Bhagat, Devidas; Srikanth Bhagavathula, Akshaya; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhandari, Dinesh; Bharadwaj, Ravi; Bhardwaj, Nikha; Bhardwaj, Pankaj; Bhargava, Ashish; Bhaskar, Sonu; Bhat, Vivek; V. Bhattacharjee, Natalia; Kaur Bhatti, Gurjit; Singh Bhatti, Jasvinder; S. Bhatti, Manpreet; Ahmed Bhuiyan, Mohiuddin; Bisignano, Catherine; Biswas, Bijit; Bjørge, Tone; Bodolica, Virgínia; Olalekan Bodunrin, Aadam; Bonakdar Hashemi, Milad; Bora Başara, Berrak; Borhany, Hamed; Adolf Bosoka, Samuel; Botero Carvajal, Alejandro; Bouaoud, Souad; Boufous, Soufiane; S. Boxe, C.; J. Boyko, Edward; J. 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Chadban, Steven; Chadwick, Joshua; Chakraborty, Chiranjib; Chakraborty, Sandip; Chalek, Julian; Shi Kai Chan, Jeffrey; Mohan Chandika, Rama; Chandy, Sara; Charan, Jaykaran; Ahmad Chaudhary, Anis; Chaurasia, Akhilanand; Chen, An‐Tian; Chen, Haowei; Chen, Mengxuan; Chen, Simiao; Cherbuin, Nicolas; Chi, Gerald; Chichagi, Fatemeh; Chimed‐Ochir, Odgerel; Chimoriya, Ritesh; R Ching, Patrick; Lorenzo Chirinos-Cáceres, Jesús; Chitheer, Abdulaal; Cho, Daniel; C. Cho, William; Choi, Dong‐Woo; Chong, Bryan; Lin Chong, Chean; Chopra, Hitesh; Chu, Dinh‐Toi; Lim Teik Chung, Eric; Chutiyami, Muhammad; T Clayton, Justin; M Cogen, Rebecca; J. Cohen, Aaron; Columbus, Alyssa; Comfort, Haley; Conde, João; T Connolly, Jon; Cooper, E.; Cortese, Samuele; Martins, Natália; Gomes da Silva, Alanna; Dadras, Omid; Dai, Xiaochen; Dai, Zhaoli; Dalton, Bronte; Damiani, Giovanni; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; K Das, Jai; Das, Saswati; Das, Subasish; Ranjan Dash, Nihar; Davletov, Kairat; de la Hoz, Fernando; De Leo, Diego; Debopadhaya, Shayom; Delgado‐Enciso, Iván; Denova‐Gutiérrez, Edgar; Dervenis, Nikolaos; Dineshbhai Desai, Hardik; Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu, Vinoth; Masudur Rahman Dewan, Syed; Dhama, Kuldeep; S. Dhane, Amol; Dhingra, Sameer; Dias da Silva, Diana; Díaz, Daniel; Antonio Díaz, Luis; J. Diaz, Michael; Dima, Adriana; D Ding, Delaney; Huynh Phuong, Thao; Bruneli do Prado, Camila; Dodangeh, Masoud; Dodangeh, Milad; Theresa Doegah, Phidelia; Dohare, Sushil; Dong, Wanyue; D’Oria, Mario; Doshi, Rajkumar; Kokou Dowou, Robert; Larson Dsouza, Haneil; Savy Dsouza, Viola; Dube, John; Carvalho Dumith, Samuel; Bartholow Duncan, Bruce; Rodrigues Durães, André; Duraisamy, Senbagam; Christopher Durojaiye, Oyewole; Dushpanova, Anar; Dutta, Sulagna; Agnieszka Dzianach, Paulina; Dziedzic, Arkadiusz; Eboreime, Ejemai; Ebrahimi, Alireza; Ebrahimi Kalan, Mohammad; Atan Edinur, Hisham; Efendi, Ferry; Andreas Eikemo, Terje; Eini, Ebrahim; Cyrus Ekundayo, Temitope; Adel El Arab, Rabie; El Sayed, Iman; Elamin, Osman; Mousaad Elemam, Noha; Metwally Tawfik ElGohary, Ghada; Elhadi, Muhammed; El Meligy, Omar; B. Elmoselhi, Adel; Elshaer, Mohammed; Elsohaby, Ibrahim; Elmagzoub Eltahir, Mohd.; I. 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Ghailan, Khalid; Ghasemi, Mohammad‐Reza; Ghasempour Dabaghi, Ghazal; Mohamed Ghazy, Ramy; Ghoba, Sama; Gholami, Ehsan; Gholamrezanezhad, Ali; Gholizadeh, Nasim; Ghorbani, Mahsa; Ghorbani Vajargah, Pooyan; Ghotbi, Elena; Gil, Artyom; K. Gill, Tiffany; Girmay, Alem; Glasbey, James; В. Глушкова, Е.; V. Gnedovskaya, E.; Göbölös, László; Goldust, Mohamad; Goleij, Pouya; Golinelli, Davide; Vali Gopalani, Sameer; C. Goulart, Alessandra; Gouravani, Mahdi; Goyal, Anmol; Grivna, Michal; Grosso, Giuseppe; Guarducci, Giovanni; Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Mohammed; Guicciardi, Stefano; Alves Guimarães, Rafael; Gulati, Snigdha; Gulisashvili, David; Asanga Gunawardane, Damitha; Guo, Cui; Kumar Gupta, Anish; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Renu; Gupta, Sapna; Kumar Gupta, Vijai; Haakenstad, Annie; R Hadi, Najah; Haep, Nils; Hafiz, Abdul; Haghmorad, Dariush; Haile, Demewoz; Hajj Ali, Adel; Hajj Ali, Ali; Haj‐Mirzaian, Arvin; S Halboub, Esam; Haller, Sebastian; Halwani, Rabih; Hamagharib Abdullah, Kanaan; Μ. Hamdy, Nadia; Hamoudi, Rifat; Hanifi, Nasrin; J. Hankey, Graeme; Haq, Zaim; Rabiul Haque, Md; Harapan, Harapan; Hargono, Arief; María Haro, Josep; I Hasaballah, Ahmed; M Mahmudul Hasan, S; Hasanian, Mohammad; Saquib Hasnain, Md; Hassan, Amr; Haubold, Johannes; I Hay, Simon; J. Hébert, Jeffrey; E Hegazi, Omar; Heidari, Mohammad; Hemmati, Mehdi; A Henson, Claire; Yuliana Herrera-Serna, Brenda; Herţeliu, Claudiu; Heydari, Majid; Hezam, Kamal; Hidayana, Irma; Hiraike, Yuta; Quoc Hoan, Nguyen; Holla, Ramesh; Hoogar, Praveen; Horita, Nobuyuki; Mahbub Hossain, Md; Hosseinzadeh, Hassan; Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi; Hostiuc, Mihaela; Hostiuc, Sorin; Hu, Chengxi; Huang, Junjie; Hultström, Michael; Gebreyes Hundie, Tsegaye; J Hunt, Aliza; Hushmandi, Kiavash; Hussain, Javid; Azhar Hussain, M.; R Hussein, Nawfal; Huynh, Hong-Han; Hwang, Bing‐Fang; Emmanuel Ibitoye, Segun; Maria Iftikhar, Pulwasha; I Ikiroma, Adalia; Chukwudi Ikwegbue, Paul; Ilić, Irena; Ilić, Milena; Immurana, Mustapha; Alhaji Isa, Mustafa; Rabiul Islam, Md.; Mohammed Shariful Islam, Sheikh; Ismail, Faisal; Elkudssiah Ismail, Nahlah; Isola, Gaetano; Iwagami, Masao; Iyamu, Ihoghosa; Jacob, Louis; H. Jacobsen, Kathryn; Jafarinia, Morteza; Jahankhani, Kasra; Jahanmehr, Nader; Jain, Nityanand; Abdulrahman Jairoun, Ammar; Mani, D.R.; Jamil, Safayet; Dominic G. Jamora, Roland; Ibrahim Jatau, Abubakar; Javadov, Sabzali; Javaheri, Tahereh; Jayaram, Shubha; Ha Jee, Sun; Jeganathan, Jayakumar; Bo Jiang, Heng; Jokar, Mohammad; B. Jonas, Jost; Joseph, Nitin; Ehimwenma Joshua, Charity; Jürisson, Mikk; Vaishali, K; Kabir, Ali; Kabir, Zubair; Kadashetti, Vidya; R. Kalankesh, Laleh; Kalra, Sanjay; Kamath, Ashwin; Kamath, Rajesh; Kamireddy, Arun; Kanaan, Mona; Kanchan, Tanuj; Wedam Kanmiki, Edmund; Kazeem Kanmodi, Kehinde; Kumar Kansal, Sushil; Karim, Asima; Karkhah, Samad; Kashoo, Faizan; Kasraei, Hengameh; B Kassel, Molly; Vittal Katikireddi, Srinivasa; H. Kauppila, Joonas; Kaur, Harkiran; A Kayode, Gbenga; Kazemi, Foad; Kazemian, Sina; Kebede, Fassikaw; Kendal, Evie; Kesse‐Guyot, Emmanuelle; Khademvatan, Shahram; Khajuria, Himanshu; Khalaji, Amirmohammad; Khalid, Asaad; Khalid, Nauman; Khalilian, Alireza; Khamesipour, Faham; Ahmad Khan, Fayaz; Jobair Khan, Mohammad; AB Khan, Moien; Khanmohammadi, Shaghayegh; Khatab, Khaled; Khatatbeh, Haitham; Khatatbeh, Moawiah; Nazli Khatib, Mahalaqua; Reza Khayat Kashani, Hamid; A Kheirallah, Khalid; Khokhar, Manoj; Khormali, Moein; Khorrami, Zahra; Aman Khosla, Atulya; Khosravi‎, Majid; Khosrowjerdi, Mahmood; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Demelash Kifle, Zemene; Kim, Grace; Sojin Kim, Julie; Seo Kim, Min; Jin Kim, Yun; W Kimokoti, Ruth; Kısa, Adnan; Kısa, Sezer; D. Knibbs, Luke; Kristin Knudsen, Ann; Kochhar, Sonali; Kolahi, Ali‐Asghar; Kompani, Farzad; Koren, Gerbrand; Korzh, Oleksii; Krishan, Kewal; Krishna, Varun; Krishnamoorthy, Vijay; Küçük Biçer, Burcu; Abdul Kuddus, Md; Kuddus, Mohammed; Kuitunen, Ilari; Kujan, Omar; Kulimbet, Mukhtar; Kulkarni, Vishnutheertha; Anil Kumar, G; Kumar, Harish; Kumar, Nithin; Kumar, Rakesh; Kumar, Vijay; Kundu, Amartya; Kusuma, Dian; Kyei‐Arthur, Frank; Kytö, Ville; Hmwe Kyu, Hmwe; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lacey, Ben; Awwal Ladan, Muhammad; Laflamme, Lucie; Lahariya, Chandrakant; Teck Ching Lai, Daphne; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lám, Judit; Lan, Qing; Lan, Tuo; Landires, Iván; Lanfranchi, Francesco; Langguth, Berthold; Charles Lansingh, Van; Laplante-Lévesque, Ariane; Larijani, Bagher; Larsson, Anders; Lasrado, Savita; Lauriola, Paolo; R. Lawlor, Hilary; Le, Huu‐Hoai; Khanh‐Dao Le, Long; Huu Hanh Le, Nhi; T. Le, Thao; Diep Thanh Le, Trang; L Leasher, Janet; Woong Lee, Doo; Lee, Munjae; H. Lee, Paul; Lee, Sang-woong; Won Lee, Seung; Wen Huey Lee, Shaun; Han Lee, Yo; Leigh, James; Leong, Elvynna; Li, Ming‐Chieh; Libra, Massimo; S Ligade, Virendra; Lim, Lee‐Ling; S Lim, Stephen; Workie Limenh, Liknaw; Lindholm, Daniel; A Lindstedt, Paulina; Listl, Stefan; Liu, Gang; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Shuke; Liu, Xiaofeng; Liu, Xuefeng; Llanaj, Erand; López‐Bueno, Rubén; Francisco López‐Gil, José; Maever Loreche, Arianna; A. Lotufo, Paulo; Lozano, Rafael; Lubinda, Jailos; Lucchetti, Giancarlo; Luo, Lisha; B. Lusk, Jay; Lv, Lei; Ibrahim M. Amin, Hawraz; Feei, Zheng; Lynn Maass, Kelsey; Machairas, Nikolaos; Machoy, Monika; Madureira-Carvalho, Áurea; Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan; A. Maghazachi, Azzam; Prasad, D.; Mahalleh, Mehrdad; Walter Mahasha, Phetole; Adam Mahmoud, Mansour; Mahmoudi, Elham; Mahmoudvand, Golnaz; Makama, Maureen; Malakan Rad, Elaheh; Malhotra, Kashish; Azam Malik, Ahmad; Carvalho Malta, Déborah; Manla, Yosef; Mansour, Ali; Hadi Mansouri, Mohammad; Mansouri, Pejman; Mansouri, Vahid; Mansourian, Marjan; Alì Mansournia, Mohammad; P. Marasini, Bishnu; Reza Marateb, Hamid; C Maravilla, Joemer; Mardi, Parham; Marjani, Abdoljalal; Markazi Moghadam, Hamed; Alberto Marrugo-Arnedo, Carlos; Martínez, Gabriel; Martínez, Ramón; Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Francisco; Martorell, Miquel; Marx, Wolfgang; Rillera Marzo, Roy; Masoudi, Sahar; Mathangasinghe, Yasith; G. Mathioudakis, Alexander; Mathur, Medha; Mathur, Navgeet; Mathur, Neeta; Penido Matozinhos, Fernanda; Mattumpuram, Jishanth; J. Maude, Richard; Maugeri, Andrea; Mayeli, Mahsa; Mazidi, Mohsen; Mazzotti, Antonio; J. 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doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00685-8

Public

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Published in The Lancet • May 1, 2024

Authors:

Masayuki Teramoto

Hazim Ababneh

Yohannes Abate

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as p...

Subject

Life expectancy

Disease burden

Environmental health

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