How Well Do Seasonal Climate Anomalies Match Expected El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Impacts?

Abstract Did the strong 2023–24 El Niño live up to the hype? While climate prediction is inherently probabilistic, many users compare El Niño events against a deterministic map of expected impacts (e.g., wetter or drier regions). Here, using this event as a guide, we show that no El Niño perfectly m... View More