Bristol Royal Infirmary

BACKGROUND: Stool form scales are a simple method of assessing intestinal transit rate but are not widely used in clinical practice or research, possibly because of the lack of evidence that they are responsive to changes in transit time. We set out to assess the responsiveness of the Bristol stool form scale to change in transit time. METHODS: Sixty-six volunteers had their whole-gut transit time (WGTT) measured with radiopaque marker pellets and their stools weighed, and they kept a diary of their stool form on a 7-point scale and of their defecatory frequency. WGTT was then altered with senna and loperamide, and the measurements were repeated. RESULTS: The base-line WGTT measurements correlated with defecatory frequency (r = 0.35, P = 0.005) and with stool output (r = -0.41, P = 0.001) but best with stool form (r = -0.54, P < 0.001). When the volunteers took senna (n = 44), the WGTT decreased, whereas defecatory frequency, stool form score, and stool output increased (all, P < 0.001). With loperamide (n = 43) all measurements changed in the opposite direction. Change in WGTT from base line correlated with change in defecatory frequency (r = 0.41, P < 0.001) and with change in stool output (n = -0.54, P < 0.001) but best with change in stool form (r = -0.65, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study has shown that a stool form scale can be used to monitor change in intestinal function. Such scales have utility in both clinical practice and research.

OBJECTIVE: To develop ROBIS, a new tool for assessing the risk of bias in systematic reviews (rather than in primary studies). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We used four-stage approach to develop ROBIS: define the scope, review the evidence base, hold a face-to-face meeting, and refine the tool through piloting. RESULTS: ROBIS is currently aimed at four broad categories of reviews mainly within health care settings: interventions, diagnosis, prognosis, and etiology. The target audience of ROBIS is primarily guideline developers, authors of overviews of systematic reviews ("reviews of reviews"), and review authors who might want to assess or avoid risk of bias in their reviews. The tool is completed in three phases: (1) assess relevance (optional), (2) identify concerns with the review process, and (3) judge risk of bias. Phase 2 covers four domains through which bias may be introduced into a systematic review: study eligibility criteria; identification and selection of studies; data collection and study appraisal; and synthesis and findings. Phase 3 assesses the overall risk of bias in the interpretation of review findings and whether this considered limitations identified in any of the phase 2 domains. Signaling questions are included to help judge concerns with the review process (phase 2) and the overall risk of bias in the review (phase 3); these questions flag aspects of review design related to the potential for bias and aim to help assessors judge risk of bias in the review process, results, and conclusions. CONCLUSIONS: ROBIS is the first rigorously developed tool designed specifically to assess the risk of bias in systematic reviews.

BACKGROUND: Red blood cell transfusion can both benefit and harm. To inform decisions about transfusion, we aimed to quantify associations of transfusion with clinical outcomes and cost in patients having cardiac surgery. METHODS AND RESULTS: Clinical, hematology, and blood transfusion databases were linked with the UK population register. Additional hematocrit information was obtained from intensive care unit charts. Composite infection (respiratory or wound infection or septicemia) and ischemic outcomes (myocardial infarction, stroke, renal impairment, or failure) were prespecified as coprimary end points. Secondary outcomes were resource use, cost, and survival. Associations were estimated by regression modeling with adjustment for potential confounding. All adult patients having cardiac surgery between April 1, 1996, and December 31, 2003, with key exposure and outcome data were included (98%). Adjusted odds ratios for composite infection (737 of 8516) and ischemic outcomes (832 of 8518) for transfused versus nontransfused patients were 3.38 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.60 to 4.40) and 3.35 (95% CI, 2.68 to 4.35), respectively. Transfusion was associated with increased relative cost of admission (any transfusion, 1.42 times [95% CI, 1.37 to 1.46], varying from 1.11 for 1 U to 3.35 for >9 U). At any time after their operations, transfused patients were less likely to have been discharged from hospital (hazard ratio [HR], 0.63; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.67) and were more likely to have died (0 to 30 days: HR, 6.69; 95% CI, 3.66 to 15.1; 31 days to 1 year: HR, 2.59; 95% CI, 1.68 to 4.17; >1 year: HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.64). CONCLUSIONS: Red blood cell transfusion in patients having cardiac surgery is strongly associated with both infection and ischemic postoperative morbidity, hospital stay, increased early and late mortality, and hospital costs.

This document is an update to the 2013 publication of the Society for Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance (SCMR) Board of Trustees Task Force on Standardized Protocols. Concurrent with this publication, 3 additional task forces will publish documents that should be referred to in conjunction with the present document. The first is a document on the Clinical Indications for CMR, an update of the 2004 document. The second task force will be updating the document on Reporting published by that SCMR Task Force in 2010. The 3rd task force will be updating the 2013 document on Post-Processing. All protocols relative to congenital heart disease are covered in a separate document.The section on general principles and techniques has been expanded as more of the techniques common to CMR have been standardized. A section on imaging in patients with devices has been added as this is increasingly seen in day-to-day clinical practice. The authors hope that this document continues to standardize and simplify the patient-based approach to clinical CMR. It will be updated at regular intervals as the field of CMR advances.

Abstract The genetic make-up of an individual contributes to the susceptibility and response to viral infection. Although environmental, clinical and social factors have a role in the chance of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and the severity of COVID-19 1,2 , host genetics may also be important. Identifying host-specific genetic factors may reveal biological mechanisms of therapeutic relevance and clarify causal relationships of modifiable environmental risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection and outcomes. We formed a global network of researchers to investigate the role of human genetics in SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we describe the results of three genome-wide association meta-analyses that consist of up to 49,562 patients with COVID-19 from 46 studies across 19 countries. We report 13 genome-wide significant loci that are associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection or severe manifestations of COVID-19. Several of these loci correspond to previously documented associations to lung or autoimmune and inflammatory diseases 3–7 . They also represent potentially actionable mechanisms in response to infection. Mendelian randomization analyses support a causal role for smoking and body-mass index for severe COVID-19 although not for type II diabetes. The identification of novel host genetic factors associated with COVID-19 was made possible by the community of human genetics researchers coming together to prioritize the sharing of data, results, resources and analytical frameworks. This working model of international collaboration underscores what is possible for future genetic discoveries in emerging pandemics, or indeed for any complex human disease.

Treatment of patients with OA of the hip should be individualized and tailored to the severity of the disease. In individuals with mildly symptomatic disease, treatment may be limited to patient education, physical and occupational therapy, other nonpharmacologic modalities, and drug therapy with a non-opioid oral analgesic. In patients who are unresponsive to this treatment regimen, the use of an NSAID in addition to nonpharmacologic therapy is appropriate unless it is medically contraindicated. Patients with severe symptomatic OA of the hip require an aggressive approach to decreasing pain, increasing mobility, and improving function; such patients may benefit from orthopedic consultation and evaluation for osteotomy or total joint arthroplasty.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: Patients with active and severe RA (disease duration <8 years) were recruited into a 24-week, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, multicenter study. Doses of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs and/or oral corticosteroids (< or =10 mg prednisolone daily) remained constant throughout the study. Any disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs that were being administered were discontinued at least 6 weeks prior to enrollment. Patients were randomized to 1 of 4 treatment groups: placebo or a single, self-administered subcutaneous injection of IL-1Ra at a daily dose of 30 mg, 75 mg, or 150 mg. RESULTS: A total of 472 patients were recruited. At enrollment, the mean age, sex ratio, disease duration, and percentage of patients with rheumatoid factor and erosions were similar in the 4 treatment groups. The clinical parameters of disease activity were similar in each treatment group and were consistent with active and severe RA. At 24 weeks, of the patients who received 150 mg/day IL-1Ra, 43% met the American College of Rheumatology criteria for response (the primary efficacy measure), 44% met the Paulus criteria, and statistically significant improvements were seen in the number of swollen joints, number of tender joints, investigator's assessment of disease activity, patient's assessment of disease activity, pain score on a visual analog scale, duration of morning stiffness, Health Assessment Questionnaire score, C-reactive protein level, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate. In addition, the rate of radiologic progression in the patients receiving IL-1Ra was significantly less than in the placebo group at 24 weeks, as evidenced by the Larsen score and the erosive joint count. IL-1Ra was well tolerated and no serious adverse events were observed. An injection-site reaction was the most frequently observed adverse event, and this resulted in a 5% rate of withdrawal from the study among those receiving IL-1Ra at 150 mg/day. CONCLUSION: This study confirmed both the efficacy and the safety of IL-1Ra in a large cohort of patients with active and severe RA. IL-1Ra is the first biologic agent to demonstrate a beneficial effect on the rate of joint erosion.

BACKGROUND: Targeted temperature management is recommended for patients after cardiac arrest, but the supporting evidence is of low certainty. METHODS: In an open-label trial with blinded assessment of outcomes, we randomly assigned 1900 adults with coma who had had an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest of presumed cardiac or unknown cause to undergo targeted hypothermia at 33°C, followed by controlled rewarming, or targeted normothermia with early treatment of fever (body temperature, ≥37.8°C). The primary outcome was death from any cause at 6 months. Secondary outcomes included functional outcome at 6 months as assessed with the modified Rankin scale. Prespecified subgroups were defined according to sex, age, initial cardiac rhythm, time to return of spontaneous circulation, and presence or absence of shock on admission. Prespecified adverse events were pneumonia, sepsis, bleeding, arrhythmia resulting in hemodynamic compromise, and skin complications related to the temperature management device. RESULTS: A total of 1850 patients were evaluated for the primary outcome. At 6 months, 465 of 925 patients (50%) in the hypothermia group had died, as compared with 446 of 925 (48%) in the normothermia group (relative risk with hypothermia, 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94 to 1.14; P = 0.37). Of the 1747 patients in whom the functional outcome was assessed, 488 of 881 (55%) in the hypothermia group had moderately severe disability or worse (modified Rankin scale score ≥4), as compared with 479 of 866 (55%) in the normothermia group (relative risk with hypothermia, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.92 to 1.09). Outcomes were consistent in the prespecified subgroups. Arrhythmia resulting in hemodynamic compromise was more common in the hypothermia group than in the normothermia group (24% vs. 17%, P<0.001). The incidence of other adverse events did not differ significantly between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with coma after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, targeted hypothermia did not lead to a lower incidence of death by 6 months than targeted normothermia. (Funded by the Swedish Research Council and others; TTM2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02908308.).

This document provides an update to the European Respiratory Society (ERS)/American Thoracic Society (ATS) technical standards for single-breath carbon monoxide uptake in the lung that was last updated in 2005. Although both D LCO (diffusing capacity) and T LCO (transfer factor) are valid terms to describe the uptake of carbon monoxide in the lung, the term D LCO is used in this document. A joint taskforce appointed by the ERS and ATS reviewed the recent literature on the measurement of D LCO and surveyed the current technical capabilities of instrumentation being manufactured around the world. The recommendations in this document represent the consensus of the taskforce members in regard to the evidence available for various aspects of D LCO measurement. Furthermore, it reflects the expert opinion of the taskforce members on areas in which peer-reviewed evidence was either not available or was incomplete. The major changes in these technical standards relate to D LCO measurement with systems using rapidly responding gas analysers for carbon monoxide and the tracer gas, which are now the most common type of D LCO instrumentation being manufactured. Technical improvements and the increased capability afforded by these new systems permit enhanced measurement of D LCO and the opportunity to include other optional measures of lung function.

In 1912, Hashimoto described four women in whom the thyroid gland was enlarged and appeared to have been transformed into lymphoid tissue (“struma lymphomatosa”).1 Although the patients were not initially hypothyroid, they became so after thyroid surgery. Over 40 years later, the presence of antithyroid antibodies was reported in patients with this disorder.2 Hashimoto's disease, or Hashimoto's thyroiditis, is now recognized as a form of chronic autoimmune thyroiditis.There is no internationally accepted classification of autoimmune thyroid diseases.3 Some investigators consider autoimmune thyroiditis a histologic diagnosis that can be subdivided into lymphocytic thyroiditis, if only lymphocytic infiltration is present, and . . .

Abstract Objective: To determine whether a period of starvation (nil by mouth) after gastrointestinal surgery is beneficial in terms of specific outcomes. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials comparing any type of enteral feeding started within 24 hours after surgery with nil by mouth management in elective gastrointestinal surgery. Three electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane controlled trials register) were searched, reference lists checked, and letters requesting details of unpublished trials and data sent to pharmaceutical companies and authors of previous trials. Main outcome measures: Anastomotic dehiscence, infection of any type, wound infection, pneumonia, intra-abdominal abscess, length of hospital stay, and mortality. Results: Eleven studies with 837 patients met the inclusion criteria. In six studies patients in the intervention group were fed directly into the small bowel and in five studies patients were fed orally. Early feeding reduced the risk of any type of infection (relative risk 0.72, 95% confidence interval 0.54 to 0.98, P=0.036) and the mean length of stay in hospital (number of days reduced by 0.84, 0.36 to 1.33, P=0.001). Risk reductions were also seen for anastomotic dehiscence (0.53, 0.26 to 1.08, P=0.080), wound infection, pneumonia, intra-abdominal abscess, and mortality, but these failed to reach significance (P&gt;0.10). The risk of vomiting was increased among patients fed early (1.27, 1.01 to 1.61, P=0.046). Conclusions: There seems to be no clear advantage to keeping patients nil by mouth after elective gastrointestinal resection. Early feeding may be of benefit. An adequately powered trial is required to confirm or refute the benefits seen in small trials. What is already known on this topic Enteral feeding within 24 hours after gastrointestinal surgery is tolerated Theoretically, early enteral feeding improves tissue healing and reduces septic complications after gastrointestinal surgery What this study adds There is no benefit in keeping patients “nil by mouth” after gastrointestinal surgery Septic complications and length of hospital stay were reduced in those patients who received early enteral feeding In patients who received early enteral feeding there were no significant reductions in incidence of anastomotic dehiscence, wound infection, pneumonia, intra-abdominal abscess, and mortality

Type 1 diabetes is a T-cell-mediated disease that is associated with loss of immunological tolerance to self-antigens. The mechanisms involved in maintenance of peripheral tolerance include a specialized subset of regulatory T-cells (Treg) within the CD4(+)CD25(+) T-cell population, but the function and phenotype of these cells in type 1 diabetes have not been investigated. We hypothesized that a deficiency in the CD4(+)CD25(+) Treg population or its function could contribute to the lack of self-tolerance evident in patients with type 1 diabetes. We show that although levels of CD4(+)CD25(+) T-cells are normal in patients with recent-onset adult type 1 diabetes, the ability of the Tregs in this population to suppress T-cell proliferation during in vitro cocultures is markedly reduced compared with control subjects (P = 0.007). Moreover, in patients with type 1 diabetes, these cocultures display a more proinflammatory phenotype, with increased secretion of interferon-gamma (P = 0.005) and decreased interleukin-10 production (P = 0.03). These deficiencies may reflect a disturbance in the balance of the CD4(+)CD25(+) population, because in patients with type 1 diabetes, a higher proportion of these cells coexpress the early activation marker CD69 (P = 0.007) and intracellular CTLA-4 (P = 0.01). These data demonstrate deficiency in function of the CD4(+)CD25(+) Treg population that may influence the pathogenesis of type 1 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Oral glucocorticoids are widely used to treat patients with rheumatoid arthritis, but their effect on joint destruction, as assessed radiologically, is uncertain. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial comparing oral prednisolone (7.5 mg daily for two years) with placebo in 128 adults with active rheumatoid arthritis of less than two years' duration. Except for systemic corticosteroids, other treatments could be prescribed. The primary outcome variables were the progression of damage as seen on radiographs of the hand after one and two years, as measured by the Larsen index, and the appearance of erosions in hands that had no erosions at base line. The radiographs were viewed jointly by a radiologist and a rheumatologist who were unaware of the treatment assignment and the time point at which the films were obtained. RESULTS: The statistical analysis of radiologically detected changes was based on 106 patients for whom there were films obtained at base line and two years later. After two years, the Larsen scores increased by a mean of 0.72 unit in the prednisolone group, indicating very little change, and by 5.37 units in the placebo group, indicating substantial joint destruction (P = 0.004). Of the 212 hands of these patients, 147 (69.3 percent) had no erosions at the start of the study. At two years, 15 of the 68 such hands in the prednisolone group (22.1 percent) and 36 of the 79 such hands in the placebo group (45.6 percent) had acquired erosions (difference, 23.5 percentage points; 95 percent confidence interval, 5.9 to 40.7; P = 0.007). The patients in the prednisolone group had greater reductions than the patients in the placebo group in scores on an articular index and for pain and disability at 3 months; for pain at 6 months; and for disability at 6, 12, and 15 months (all P < 0.05). There was no difference between groups in standardized scores for the acute-phase response. The adverse events were typical of those encountered with antirheumatoid drugs. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with early, active rheumatoid arthritis, prednisolone (7.5 mg daily) given for two years in addition to other treatments substantially reduced the rate of radiologically detected progression of disease.

BACKGROUND: Whether a restrictive threshold for hemoglobin level in red-cell transfusions, as compared with a liberal threshold, reduces postoperative morbidity and health care costs after cardiac surgery is uncertain. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, parallel-group trial in which patients older than 16 years of age who were undergoing nonemergency cardiac surgery were recruited from 17 centers in the United Kingdom. Patients with a postoperative hemoglobin level of less than 9 g per deciliter were randomly assigned to a restrictive transfusion threshold (hemoglobin level <7.5 g per deciliter) or a liberal transfusion threshold (hemoglobin level <9 g per deciliter). The primary outcome was a serious infection (sepsis or wound infection) or an ischemic event (permanent stroke [confirmation on brain imaging and deficit in motor, sensory, or coordination functions], myocardial infarction, infarction of the gut, or acute kidney injury) within 3 months after randomization. Health care costs, excluding the index surgery, were estimated from the day of surgery to 3 months after surgery. RESULTS: A total of 2007 patients underwent randomization; 4 participants withdrew, leaving 1000 in the restrictive-threshold group and 1003 in the liberal-threshold group. Transfusion rates after randomization were 53.4% and 92.2% in the two groups, respectively. The primary outcome occurred in 35.1% of the patients in the restrictive-threshold group and 33.0% of the patients in the liberal-threshold group (odds ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91 to 1.34; P=0.30); there was no indication of heterogeneity according to subgroup. There were more deaths in the restrictive-threshold group than in the liberal-threshold group (4.2% vs. 2.6%; hazard ratio, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.00 to 2.67; P=0.045). Serious postoperative complications, excluding primary-outcome events, occurred in 35.7% of participants in the restrictive-threshold group and 34.2% of participants in the liberal-threshold group. Total costs did not differ significantly between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: A restrictive transfusion threshold after cardiac surgery was not superior to a liberal threshold with respect to morbidity or health care costs. (Funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment program; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN70923932.).

BACKGROUND: Lack of standardization of outcome measures limits the usefulness of clinical trial evidence to inform health care decisions. This can be addressed by agreeing on a minimum core set of outcome measures per health condition, containing measures relevant to patients and decision makers. Since 1992, the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology (OMERACT) consensus initiative has successfully developed core sets for many rheumatologic conditions, actively involving patients since 2002. Its expanding scope required an explicit formulation of its underlying conceptual framework and process. METHODS: Literature searches and iterative consensus process (surveys and group meetings) of stakeholders including patients, health professionals, and methodologists within and outside rheumatology. RESULTS: To comprehensively sample patient-centered and intervention-specific outcomes, a framework emerged that comprises three core "Areas," namely Death, Life Impact, and Pathophysiological Manifestations; and one strongly recommended Resource Use. Through literature review and consensus process, core set development for any specific health condition starts by identifying at least one core "Domain" within each of the Areas to formulate the "Core Domain Set." Next, at least one applicable measurement instrument for each core Domain is identified to formulate a "Core Outcome Measurement Set." Each instrument must prove to be truthful (valid), discriminative, and feasible. In 2012, 96% of the voting participants (n=125) at the OMERACT 11 consensus conference endorsed this model and process. CONCLUSION: The OMERACT Filter 2.0 explicitly describes a comprehensive conceptual framework and a recommended process to develop core outcome measurement sets for rheumatology likely to be useful as a template in other areas of health care.

BACKGROUND: Alcoholic hepatitis is a clinical syndrome characterized by jaundice and liver impairment that occurs in patients with a history of heavy and prolonged alcohol use. The short-term mortality among patients with severe disease exceeds 30%. Prednisolone and pentoxifylline are both recommended for the treatment of severe alcoholic hepatitis, but uncertainty about their benefit persists. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, double-blind, randomized trial with a 2-by-2 factorial design to evaluate the effect of treatment with prednisolone or pentoxifylline. The primary end point was mortality at 28 days. Secondary end points included death or liver transplantation at 90 days and at 1 year. Patients with a clinical diagnosis of alcoholic hepatitis and severe disease were randomly assigned to one of four groups: a group that received a pentoxifylline-matched placebo and a prednisolone-matched placebo, a group that received prednisolone and a pentoxifylline-matched placebo, a group that received pentoxifylline and a prednisolone-matched placebo, or a group that received both prednisolone and pentoxifylline. RESULTS: A total of 1103 patients underwent randomization, and data from 1053 were available for the primary end-point analysis. Mortality at 28 days was 17% (45 of 269 patients) in the placebo-placebo group, 14% (38 of 266 patients) in the prednisolone-placebo group, 19% (50 of 258 patients) in the pentoxifylline-placebo group, and 13% (35 of 260 patients) in the prednisolone-pentoxifylline group. The odds ratio for 28-day mortality with pentoxifylline was 1.07 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.77 to 1.49; P=0.69), and that with prednisolone was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.52 to 1.01; P=0.06). At 90 days and at 1 year, there were no significant between-group differences. Serious infections occurred in 13% of the patients treated with prednisolone versus 7% of those who did not receive prednisolone (P=0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Pentoxifylline did not improve survival in patients with alcoholic hepatitis. Prednisolone was associated with a reduction in 28-day mortality that did not reach significance and with no improvement in outcomes at 90 days or 1 year. (Funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment program; STOPAH EudraCT number, 2009-013897-42 , and Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN88782125 ).

Because the range of bowel habits and stool types in the community is unknown we questioned 838 men and 1059 women, comprising 72.2% of a random stratified sample of the East Bristol population. Most of them kept records of three consecutive defecations, including stool form on a validated six point scale ranging from hard, round lumps to mushy. Questionnaire responses agreed moderately well with recorded data. Although the most common bowel habit was once daily this was a minority practice in both sexes; a regular 24 hour cycle was apparent in only 40% of men and 33% of women. Another 7% of men and 4% of women seemed to have a regular twice or thrice daily bowel habit. Thus most people had irregular bowels. A third of women defecated less often than daily and 1% once a week or less. Stools at the constipated end of the scale were passed more often by women than men. In women of child bearing age bowel habit and the spectrum of stool types were shifted towards constipation and irregularity compared with older women and three cases of severe slow transit constipation were discovered in young women. Otherwise age had little effect on bowel habit or stool type. Normal stool types, defined as those least likely to evoke symptoms, accounted for only 56% of all stools in women and 61% in men. Most defecations occurred in the early morning and earlier in men than in women. We conclude that conventionally normal bowel function is enjoyed by less than half the population and that, in this aspect of human physiology, younger women are especially disadvantaged.

OBJECTIVE: Preventive strategies against knee osteoarthritis (OA) require a knowledge of risk factors that influence the initiation of the disorder and its subsequent progression. This population-based longitudinal study was performed to address this issue. METHODS: Ninety-nine men and 255 women aged > or =55 years had baseline interviews and weight-bearing knee radiographs in 1990-1991. Repeat radiographs were obtained in 1995-1996 (mean followup duration 5.1 years, median age at followup 75.8 years). Risk factors assessed at baseline were tested for their association with incident and progressive radiographic knee OA by logistic regression. RESULTS: Rates of incidence and progression were 2.5% and 3.6% per year, respectively. After adjusting for age and sex, the risk of incident radiographic knee OA was significantly increased among subjects with higher baseline body mass index (odds ratio [OR] 18.3, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 5.1-65.1, highest versus lowest third), previous knee injury (OR 4.8, 95% CI 1.0-24.1), and a history of regular sports participation (OR 3.2, 95% CI 1.1-9.1). Knee pain at baseline (OR 2.4, 95% CI 0.7-8.0) and Heberden's nodes (OR 2.0, 95% CI 0.7-5.7) were weakly associated with progression. Analyses based on individual radiographic features (osteophyte formation and joint space narrowing) supported differences in risk factors for either feature. CONCLUSION: Most currently recognized risk factors for prevalent knee OA (obesity, knee injury, and physical activity) influence incidence more than radiographic progression. Furthermore, these factors might selectively influence osteophyte formation more than joint space narrowing. These findings are consistent with knee OA being initiated by joint injury, but with progression being a consequence of impaired intrinsic repair capacity.

BACKGROUND: There is controversy and confusion regarding therapy for patients with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast. The Van Nuys Prognostic Index (VNPI) was developed to aid in the complex treatment selection process. METHODS: The VNPI combines three significant predictors of local recurrence: tumor size, margin width, and pathologic classification. Scores of 1 (best) to 3 (worst) were assigned for each of the 3 predictors and then totaled to give an overall VNPI score ranging from 3 to 9. Three hundred thirty-three patients with pure DCIS treated with breast preservation (195 by excision only and 138 by excision plus radiation therapy) were studied with detection of local recurrence as the end point. RESULTS: There was no statistical difference in the 8 year local recurrence free survival in patients with VNPI scores of 3 or 4, regardless of whether or not radiation therapy was used (100% vs. 97%; P = not significant). Patients with VNPI scores of 5, 6, or 7 received a statistically significant 17% local recurrence free survival benefit when treated with radiation therapy (85% vs. 68%; P = 0.017). Patients with scores of 8 or 9, although showing the greatest relative benefit from radiation therapy, experienced local recurrence rates in excess of 60% at 8 years. CONCLUSIONS: DCIS patients with VNPI scores of 3 or 4 can be considered for treatment with excision only. Patients with intermediate scores (5, 6, or 7) show a 17% decrease in local recurrence rates with radiation therapy. Patients with VNPI scores of 8 or 9 exhibit extremely high local recurrence rates, regardless of irradiation, and should be considered for mastectomy.

Persistent postsurgical pain is a prevalent but underacknowledged condition. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence, sensory qualities, and postoperative determinants of persistent pain at 3 to 4years after total knee replacement (TKR) and total hip replacement (THR). Patients completed a questionnaire with included the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Index of Osteoarthritis (WOMAC) Pain Scale, PainDetect Questionnaire, Short-Form McGill Pain Questionnaire, and questions about general health and socioeconomic status. A total of 632 TKR patients and 662 THR patients completed a questionnaire (response rate of 73%); 44% of TKR patients and 27% of THR patients reported experiencing persistent postsurgical pain of any severity, with 15% of TKR patients and 6% of THR patients reporting severe-extreme persistent pain. The persistent pain was most commonly described as aching, tender, and tiring, and only 6% of TKR patients and 1% of THR patients reported pain that was neuropathic in nature. Major depression and the number of pain problems elsewhere were found to be significant and independent postoperative determinants of persistent postsurgical pain. In conclusion, this study found that persistent postsurgical pain is common after joint replacement, although much of the pain is mild, infrequent, or an improvement on preoperative pain. The association between the number of pain problems elsewhere and the severity of persistent postsurgical pain suggests that patients with persistent postsurgical pain may have an underlying vulnerability to pain. A small percentage of patients have severe persistent pain after joint replacement, and this is associated with depression and the number of pain problems elsewhere.