GGD Amsterdam

Standard survival data measure the time span from some time origin until the occurrence of one type of event. If several types of events occur, a model describing progression to each of these competing risks is needed. Multi-state models generalize competing risks models by also describing transitions to intermediate events. Methods to analyze such models have been developed over the last two decades. Fortunately, most of the analyzes can be performed within the standard statistical packages, but may require some extra effort with respect to data preparation and programming. This tutorial aims to review statistical methods for the analysis of competing risks and multi-state models. Although some conceptual issues are covered, the emphasis is on practical issues like data preparation, estimation of the effect of covariates, and estimation of cumulative incidence functions and state and transition probabilities. Examples of analysis with standard software are shown.

Adaptive features of innate immunity, recently described as "trained immunity," have been documented in plants, invertebrate animals, and mice, but not yet in humans. Here we show that bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination in healthy volunteers led not only to a four- to sevenfold increase in the production of IFN-γ, but also to a twofold enhanced release of monocyte-derived cytokines, such as TNF and IL-1β, in response to unrelated bacterial and fungal pathogens. The enhanced function of circulating monocytes persisted for at least 3 mo after vaccination and was accompanied by increased expression of activation markers such as CD11b and Toll-like receptor 4. These training effects were induced through the NOD2 receptor and mediated by increased histone 3 lysine 4 trimethylation. In experimental studies, BCG vaccination induced T- and B-lymphocyte-independent protection of severe combined immunodeficiency SCID mice from disseminated candidiasis (100% survival in BCG-vaccinated mice vs. 30% in control mice). In conclusion, BCG induces trained immunity and nonspecific protection from infections through epigenetic reprogramming of innate immune cells.

BACKGROUND: falls and fall-related injuries are common in older adults, have negative effects on functional independence and quality of life and are associated with increased morbidity, mortality and health related costs. Current guidelines are inconsistent, with no up-to-date, globally applicable ones present. OBJECTIVES: to create a set of evidence- and expert consensus-based falls prevention and management recommendations applicable to older adults for use by healthcare and other professionals that consider: (i) a person-centred approach that includes the perspectives of older adults with lived experience, caregivers and other stakeholders; (ii) gaps in previous guidelines; (iii) recent developments in e-health and (iv) implementation across locations with limited access to resources such as low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: a steering committee and a worldwide multidisciplinary group of experts and stakeholders, including older adults, were assembled. Geriatrics and gerontological societies were represented. Using a modified Delphi process, recommendations from 11 topic-specific working groups (WGs), 10 ad-hoc WGs and a WG dealing with the perspectives of older adults were reviewed and refined. The final recommendations were determined by voting. RECOMMENDATIONS: all older adults should be advised on falls prevention and physical activity. Opportunistic case finding for falls risk is recommended for community-dwelling older adults. Those considered at high risk should be offered a comprehensive multifactorial falls risk assessment with a view to co-design and implement personalised multidomain interventions. Other recommendations cover details of assessment and intervention components and combinations, and recommendations for specific settings and populations. CONCLUSIONS: the core set of recommendations provided will require flexible implementation strategies that consider both local context and resources.

Molecular typing based on 12 loci containing variable numbers of tandem repeats of mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units (MIRU-VNTRs) has been adopted in combination with spoligotyping as the basis for large-scale, high-throughput genotyping of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. However, even the combination of these two methods is still less discriminatory than IS6110 fingerprinting. Here, we define an optimized set of MIRU-VNTR loci with a significantly higher discriminatory power. The resolution and the stability/robustness of 29 loci were analyzed, using a total of 824 tubercle bacillus isolates, including representatives of the main lineages identified worldwide so far. Five loci were excluded for lack of robustness and/or stability in serial isolates or isolates from epidemiologically linked patients. The use of the 24 remaining loci increased the number of types by 40%--and by 23% in combination with spoligotyping--among isolates from cosmopolitan origins, compared to those obtained with the original set of 12 loci. Consequently, the clustering rate was decreased by fourfold--by threefold in combination with spoligotyping--under the same conditions. A discriminatory subset of 15 loci with the highest evolutionary rates was then defined that concentrated 96% of the total resolution obtained with the full 24-locus set. Its predictive value for evaluating M. tuberculosis transmission was found to be equal to that of IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism typing, as shown in a companion population-based study. This 15-locus system is therefore proposed as the new standard for routine epidemiological discrimination of M. tuberculosis isolates and the 24-locus system as a high-resolution tool for phylogenetic studies.

We present possible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next decade, with the intention of providing information to the astronomy community to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals, and study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source. We report our findings for gravitational-wave transients, with particular focus on gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary neutron star systems, which are the most promising targets for multi-messenger astronomy. The ability to localize the sources of the detected signals depends on the geographical distribution of the detectors and their relative sensitivity, and [Formula: see text] credible regions can be as large as thousands of square degrees when only two sensitive detectors are operational. Determining the sky position of a significant fraction of detected signals to areas of 5-[Formula: see text] requires at least three detectors of sensitivity within a factor of [Formula: see text] of each other and with a broad frequency bandwidth. When all detectors, including KAGRA and the third LIGO detector in India, reach design sensitivity, a significant fraction of gravitational-wave signals will be localized to a few square degrees by gravitational-wave observations alone.

BACKGROUND: Depression and cardiovascular diseases are both common among elderly. Depression is suspected to be an independent risk factor for the onset of coronary heart disease, yet it is not clear to what extent and if depression also is associated with the onset of other diseases of the circulatory system. AIMS: To estimate the risk of depression as an independent risk factor for various cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and explore the effects of heterogeneity and methodological quality. METHOD: Meta-analyses and meta-regression analyses of longitudinal cohort and case-control studies reporting depression at baseline and CVD outcomes at follow-up. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE (1966-2005) and PSYCHINFO (1966-2005). RESULTS: Of the 28 studies that met the inclusion criteria, 11 were assesed as high quality studies. Although depressed mood increased the risk for a wide range of CVDs, heterogeneity was substantial in most cases. Only the overall combined risk of depression for the onset of myocardial infarctions (n=8, OR=1.60, 95%CI 1.34-1.92) was homogenous. Clinically diagnosed major depressive disorder was identified as the most important risk factor for developing CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Depression seems to be an independent risk factor for the onset of a wide range of CVDs, although this evidence is related to a high level of heterogeneity.

The Academic Research Consortium (ARC)-2 initiative revisited the clinical and angiographic end point definitions in coronary device trials, proposed in 2007, to make them more suitable for use in clinical trials that include increasingly complex lesion and patient populations and incorporate novel devices such as bioresorbable vascular scaffolds. In addition, recommendations for the incorporation of patient-related outcomes in clinical trials are proposed. Academic Research Consortium-2 is a collaborative effort between academic research organizations in the United States and Europe, device manufacturers, and European, US, and Asian regulatory bodies. Several in-person meetings were held to discuss the changes that have occurred in the device landscape and in clinical trials and regulatory pathways in the last decade. The consensus-based end point definitions in this document are endorsed by the stakeholders of this document and strongly advocated for clinical trial purposes. This Academic Research Consortium-2 document provides further standardization of end point definitions for coronary device trials, incorporating advances in technology and knowledge. Their use will aid interpretation of trial outcomes and comparison among studies, thus facilitating the evaluation of the safety and effectiveness of these devices.

In human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, functional defects and deletion of antigen-reactive T cells are more frequent than can be explained by direct viral infection. On culturing, both CD4+ and CD8+ T cells from asymptomatic HIV-infected individuals died as a result of programmed cell death (apoptosis). Apoptosis was enhanced by activation with CD3 antibodies. Programmed cell death, associated with impaired T cell reactivity, may thus be responsible for the deletion of reactive T cells that contributes to HIV-induced immunodeficiency.

The human brain has evolved for group living [1]. Yet we know so little about how it supports dynamic group interactions that the study of real-world social exchanges has been dubbed the "dark matter of social neuroscience" [2]. Recently, various studies have begun to approach this question by comparing brain responses of multiple individuals during a variety of (semi-naturalistic) tasks [3-15]. These experiments reveal how stimulus properties [13], individual differences [14], and contextual factors [15] may underpin similarities and differences in neural activity across people. However, most studies to date suffer from various limitations: they often lack direct face-to-face interaction between participants, are typically limited to dyads, do not investigate social dynamics across time, and, crucially, they rarely study social behavior under naturalistic circumstances. Here we extend such experimentation drastically, beyond dyads and beyond laboratory walls, to identify neural markers of group engagement during dynamic real-world group interactions. We used portable electroencephalogram (EEG) to simultaneously record brain activity from a class of 12 high school students over the course of a semester (11 classes) during regular classroom activities (Figures 1A-1C; Supplemental Experimental Procedures, section S1). A novel analysis technique to assess group-based neural coherence demonstrates that the extent to which brain activity is synchronized across students predicts both student class engagement and social dynamics. This suggests that brain-to-brain synchrony is a possible neural marker for dynamic social interactions, likely driven by shared attention mechanisms. This study validates a promising new method to investigate the neuroscience of group interactions in ecologically natural settings.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals may be at increased risk of age-associated noncommunicable comorbidities (AANCCs). METHODS: Cross-sectional analyses of AANCC prevalence (including cardiovascular, metabolic, pulmonary, renal, bone, and malignant disease) and risk factors in a prospective cohort study of HIV type 1-infected individuals and HIV-uninfected controls, who were aged ≥45 years and comparable regarding most lifestyle and demographic factors. RESULTS: HIV-infected participants (n = 540) had a significantly higher mean number of AANCCs than controls (n = 524) (1.3 [SD, 1.14] vs 1.0 [SD, 0.95]; P < .001), with significantly more HIV-infected participants having ≥1 AANCC (69.4% vs 61.8%; P = .009). Hypertension, myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, and impaired renal function were significantly more prevalent among HIV-infected participants. Risk of AANCC by ordinal logistic regression was independently associated with age, smoking, positive family history for cardiovascular/metabolic disease, and higher waist-to-hip ratio, but also with HIV infection (odds ratio, 1.58 [95% confidence interval, 1.23-2.03]; P < .001). In those with HIV, longer exposure to CD4 counts <200 cells/µL, and, to a lesser extent, higher levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and soluble CD14, and longer prior use of high-dose ritonavir (≥400 mg/24 hours) were each also associated with a higher risk of AANCCs. CONCLUSIONS: All AANCCs were numerically more prevalent, with peripheral arterial, cardiovascular disease, and impaired renal function significantly so, among HIV-infected participants compared with HIV-uninfected controls. Besides recognized cardiovascular risk factors, HIV infection and longer time spent with severe immunodeficiency increased the risk of a higher composite AANCC burden. There was a less pronounced contribution from residual inflammation, immune activation, and prior high-dose ritonavir use.

ABSTRACT The NASDAQ multiple dealer market is designed to produce narrow bid‐ask spreads through the competition for order flow among individual dealers. However, we find that odd‐eighth quotes are virtually nonexistent for 70 of 100 actively traded NASDAQ securities, including Apple Computer and Lotus Development. The lack of odd‐eighth quotes cannot be explained by the negotiation hypothesis of Harris (1991) , trading activity, or other variables thought to impact spreads. This result implies that the inside spread for a large number of NASDAQ stocks is at least $0.25 and raises the question of whether NASDAQ dealers implicitly collude to maintain wide spreads.

In Brief Objective: To investigate which perioperative treatment, ie, laparoscopic or open surgery combined with fast track (FT) or standard care, is the optimal approach for patients undergoing segmental resection for colon cancer. Summary Background Data: Important developments in elective colorectal surgery are the introduction of laparoscopy and implementation of FT care, both focusing on faster recovery. Methods: In a 9-center trial, patients eligible for segmental colectomy were randomized to laparoscopic or open colectomy, and to FT or standard care, resulting in 4 treatment groups. Primary outcome was total postoperative hospital stay (THS). Secondary outcomes were postoperative hospital stay (PHS), morbidity, reoperation rate, readmission rate, in-hospital mortality, quality of life at 2 and 4 weeks, patient satisfaction and in-hospital costs. Four hundred patients were required to find a minimum difference of 1 day in hospital stay. Results: Median THS in the laparoscopic/FT group was 5 (interquar-tile range: 4–8) days; open/FT 7 (5–11) days; laparoscopic/standard 6 (4.5–9.5) days, and open/standard 7 (6–13) days (P < 0.001). Median PHS in the laparoscopic/FT group was 5 (4–7) days; open/FT 6 (4.5–10) days; laparoscopic/standard 6 (4–8.5) days and open/standard 7 (6–10.5) days (P < 0.001). Secondary outcomes did not differ significantly among the groups. Regression analysis showed that laparoscopy was the only independent predictive factor to reduce hospital stay and morbidity. Conclusions: Optimal perioperative treatment for patients requiring segmental colectomy for colon cancer is laparoscopic resection embedded in a FT program. If open surgery is applied, it is preferentially done in FT care. This study was registered under NTR222 (www.trialregister.nl). Important developments in elective colorectal surgery include the introduction of laparoscopy and implementation of a program for enhanced recovery after surgery. This trial investigated which perioperative treatment, ie, laparoscopic or open surgery combined with fast track or standard care, is the optimal approach for patients undergoing segmental resection for colon cancer.

BACKGROUND: Alterations in waveforms in the uterine artery are associated with the development of pre-eclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction. We investigated the predictive accuracy of all uterine artery Doppler indices for both conditions in the first and second trimesters. METHODS: We identified relevant studies through searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and Medion databases (all records to April 2006) and by checking bibliographies of identified studies and consulting with experts. Four of us independently selected studies, extracted data and assessed study validity. We performed a bivariable meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity and calculated likelihood ratios. RESULTS: We identified 74 studies of pre-eclampsia (total 79,547 patients) and 61 studies of intrauterine growth restriction (total 41 131 patients). Uterine artery Doppler ultrasonography provided a more accurate prediction when performed in the second trimester than in the first-trimester. Most Doppler indices had poor predictive characteristics, but this varied with patient risk and outcome severity. An increased pulsatility index with notching was the best predictor of pre-eclampsia (positive likelihood ratio 21.0 among high-risk patients and 7.5 among low-risk patients). It was also the best predictor of overall (positive likelihood ratio 9.1) and severe (positive likelihood ratio 14.6) intrauterine growth restriction among low-risk patients. INTERPRETATION: Abnormal uterine artery waveforms are a better predictor of pre-eclampsia than of intrauterine growth restriction. A pulsatility index, alone or combined with notching, is the most predictive Doppler index. These indices should be used in clinical practice. Future research should also concentrate on combining uterine artery Doppler ultrasonography with other tests.

Self-determination Theory (SDT), designed by Edward Deci and Richard Ryan, serves among the current major motivational theories in psychology. SDT research has been conducted in many areas, among which are education and health care, but its applications in medical education are rare. The potential of SDT to help understand processes in medical education justifies this Guide. SDT is explained in seven principles, one of which is the distinction of three innate psychological needs of human beings: for competence, for autonomy and for relatedness. Further, SDT elaborates how humans tend to internalise regulation of behaviour that initially has been external, in order to develop autonomous, self-determined behaviour. Implications of SDT for medical education are discussed with reference to preparation and selection, curriculum structure, classroom teaching, assessments and examinations, self-directed learning, clinical teaching, students as teachers and researchers, continuing professional development, faculty development and stress among trainees.

Birth weight variation is influenced by fetal and maternal genetic and non-genetic factors, and has been reproducibly associated with future cardio-metabolic health outcomes. In expanded genome-wide association analyses of own birth weight (n = 321,223) and offspring birth weight (n = 230,069 mothers), we identified 190 independent association signals (129 of which are novel). We used structural equation modeling to decompose the contributions of direct fetal and indirect maternal genetic effects, then applied Mendelian randomization to illuminate causal pathways. For example, both indirect maternal and direct fetal genetic effects drive the observational relationship between lower birth weight and higher later blood pressure: maternal blood pressure-raising alleles reduce offspring birth weight, but only direct fetal effects of these alleles, once inherited, increase later offspring blood pressure. Using maternal birth weight-lowering genotypes to proxy for an adverse intrauterine environment provided no evidence that it causally raises offspring blood pressure, indicating that the inverse birth weight–blood pressure association is attributable to genetic effects, and not to intrauterine programming. An expanded GWAS of birth weight and subsequent analysis using structural equation modeling and Mendelian randomization decomposes maternal and fetal genetic contributions and causal links between birth weight, blood pressure and glycemic traits.

The factor structure of the Dutch translation of the Autism-Spectrum Quotient (AQ; a continuous, quantitative measure of autistic traits) was evaluated with confirmatory factor analyses in a large general population and student sample. The criterion validity of the AQ was examined in three matched patient groups (autism spectrum conditions (ASC), social anxiety disorder, and obsessive-compulsive disorder). A two factor model, consisting of a "Social interaction" factor and "Attention to detail" factor could be identified. The internal consistency and test-retest reliability of the AQ were satisfactory. High total AQ and factor scores were specific to ASC patients. Men scored higher than women and science students higher than non-science students. The Dutch translation of the AQ is a reliable instrument to assess autism spectrum conditions.

BACKGROUND: To support the clinical distinction between systolic heart failure (SHF) and diastolic heart failure (DHF), left ventricular (LV) myocardial structure and function were compared in LV endomyocardial biopsy samples of patients with systolic and diastolic heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients hospitalized for worsening heart failure were classified as having SHF (n=22; LV ejection fraction (EF) 34+/-2%) or DHF (n=22; LVEF 62+/-2%). No patient had coronary artery disease or biopsy evidence of infiltrative or inflammatory myocardial disease. More DHF patients had a history of arterial hypertension and were obese. Biopsy samples were analyzed with histomorphometry and electron microscopy. Single cardiomyocytes were isolated from the samples, stretched to a sarcomere length of 2.2 microm to measure passive force (Fpassive), and activated with calcium-containing solutions to measure total force. Cardiomyocyte diameter was higher in DHF (20.3+/-0.6 versus 15.1+/-0.4 microm, P<0.001), but collagen volume fraction was equally elevated. Myofibrillar density was lower in SHF (36+/-2% versus 46+/-2%, P<0.001). Cardiomyocytes of DHF patients had higher Fpassive (7.1+/-0.6 versus 5.3+/-0.3 kN/m2; P<0.01), but their total force was comparable. After administration of protein kinase A to the cardiomyocytes, the drop in Fpassive was larger (P<0.01) in DHF than in SHF. CONCLUSIONS: LV myocardial structure and function differ in SHF and DHF because of distinct cardiomyocyte abnormalities. These findings support the clinical separation of heart failure patients into SHF and DHF phenotypes.

The standard SeaWiFS atmospheric correction algorithm, designed for open ocean water, has been extended for use over turbid coastal and inland waters. Failure of the standard algorithm over turbid waters can be attributed to invalid assumptions of zero water-leaving radiance for the near-infrared bands at 765 and 865 nm. In the present study these assumptions are replaced by the assumptions of spatial homogeneity of the 765:865-nm ratios for aerosol reflectance and for water-leaving reflectance. These two ratios are imposed as calibration parameters after inspection of the Rayleigh-corrected reflectance scatterplot. The performance of the new algorithm is demonstrated for imagery of Belgian coastal waters and yields physically realistic water-leaving radiance spectra. A preliminary comparison with in situ radiance spectra for the Dutch Lake Markermeer shows significant improvement over the standard atmospheric correction algorithm. An analysis is made of the sensitivity of results to the choice of calibration parameters, and perspectives for application of the method to other sensors are briefly discussed.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the separate and combined associations of maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and gestational weight gain with the risks of pregnancy complications and their population impact. DESIGN: Individual participant data meta-analysis of 39 cohorts. SETTING: Europe, North America, and Oceania. POPULATION: 265 270 births. METHODS: Information on maternal pre-pregnancy BMI, gestational weight gain, and pregnancy complications was obtained. Multilevel binary logistic regression models were used. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes, preterm birth, small and large for gestational age at birth. RESULTS: Higher maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and gestational weight gain were, across their full ranges, associated with higher risks of gestational hypertensive disorders, gestational diabetes, and large for gestational age at birth. Preterm birth risk was higher at lower and higher BMI and weight gain. Compared with normal weight mothers with medium gestational weight gain, obese mothers with high gestational weight gain had the highest risk of any pregnancy complication (odds ratio 2.51, 95% CI 2.31- 2.74). We estimated that 23.9% of any pregnancy complication was attributable to maternal overweight/obesity and 31.6% of large for gestational age infants was attributable to excessive gestational weight gain. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and gestational weight gain are, across their full ranges, associated with risks of pregnancy complications. Obese mothers with high gestational weight gain are at the highest risk of pregnancy complications. Promoting a healthy pre-pregnancy BMI and gestational weight gain may reduce the burden of pregnancy complications and ultimately the risk of maternal and neonatal morbidity. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Promoting a healthy body mass index and gestational weight gain might reduce the population burden of pregnancy complications.

BACKGROUND: The prognosis, specifically the case fatality and duration, of untreated tuberculosis is important as many patients are not correctly diagnosed and therefore receive inadequate or no treatment. Furthermore, duration and case fatality of tuberculosis are key parameters in interpreting epidemiological data. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To estimate the duration and case fatality of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV negative patients we reviewed studies from the pre-chemotherapy era. Untreated smear-positive tuberculosis among HIV negative individuals has a 10-year case fatality variously reported between 53% and 86%, with a weighted mean of 70%. Ten-year case fatality of culture-positive smear-negative tuberculosis was nowhere reported directly but can be indirectly estimated to be approximately 20%. The duration of tuberculosis from onset to cure or death is approximately 3 years and appears to be similar for smear-positive and smear-negative tuberculosis. CONCLUSIONS: Current models of untreated tuberculosis that assume a total duration of 2 years until self-cure or death underestimate the duration of disease by about one year, but their case fatality estimates of 70% for smear-positive and 20% for culture-positive smear-negative tuberculosis appear to be satisfactory.